Failed Prospect: Chad Hermansen

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2008 2:56 PM EST in News

Chad Hermansen was drafted in the first round by the Pirates in 1995, 10th overall, out of high school in Henderson, Nevada. Scouts loved his athleticism and power potential, though it was expected that he would eventually have to move off shortstop, his high school position. His pro debut was strong: .304/.363/.533 in 24 games of rookie ball, then .273/.354/.467 in 44 games in the New York-Penn League, against older competition. I didn't give grades to new draftees back then, but a guy with a similar profile nowadays would get a Grade B or maybe even a B+ from me, given that he did well against older players after signing.

Hermansen began 1996 at Class A Augusta, hitting .252/.377/.513 in 62 games. Promoted to Class A Lynchburg at midseason, he hit .275/.352/.462 in 66 games. Scouts reported that he killed fastballs, but problems against curves and sliders kept his strikeout rate rather high, though it didn't hurt his overall production much. Given that he was just 18 for most of the year and finished in the Carolina League, it looked like the sky was the limit for him. I gave him a B+ in the 1997 book.

The Pirates moved Hermansen up to Double-A in 1997, very impressive for a 19 year old. He hit .275/.373/.478 with 20 homers, 69 walks, and 136 strikeouts in 487 at-bats, and also stole 18 bases. At this point the main worry was his glove: he started the year at shortstop, moved to the outfield, then to second base. I wrote that they should just stick him in the outfield and let his bat develop. I moved his grade up to A-, confident that given his age/competition factor, that he would do very well in the long run. The strikeouts didn't worry me much since he also drew walks and was so young.

Hermansen moved up to Triple-A in 1998, hitting .258/.334/.520 with 28 homers, 50 walks, 152 strikeouts and 21 steals in 458 at-bats. He moved to the outfield and looks reasonably comfortable out there. Although he maintained his power production, the decline in his walk rate and increase in strikeouts wasn't a good sign. Still, he was just 21, and given a normal age/development curve, the future still looked bright. Grade B+.

Returned to Nashville for 1999, Hermansen hit .270/.321/.530 with 32 homers and 19 steals. His plate discipline slipped: he dropped to just 35 walks. He also cut the strikeouts back to 119 in 496 at-bats, but his overall production didn't change much. He got into 19 games with the Pirates and hit .233/.324/.333. By this time I was starting to worry about him. He hadn't made much progress against breaking balls, and while he still saw enough fastballs to hit homers in Triple-A, I was increasingly concerned that he would have plate discipline problems in the Show. Still, I gave him the benefit of the doubt one more year, with a B+ rating.

2000 was split between Nashville and Pittsburgh. He hit just .185/.226/.296 in 33 games for the Pirates, with a 6/37 BB/K in 108 at-bats. Even his Triple-A numbers slipped: .224/.304/.384 in 78 games. He spent most of 2001 back in Nashville, hitting .246/.315/.436 with 16 homers and 154 strikeouts in 123 games. He got into 65 games for the Pirates in 2002, hitting .206/.272/.381. He got traded to the Cubs, then ended up in the Dodgers system in '03 and the Blue Jays in 2004, waylaid by a torn labrum. He was out of baseball in 2005, then played for independent Sioux Falls in 2006. He was back in Triple-A last year, hitting .283/.353/.447 for Albuquerque in the Marlins system.
Hermansen is still just 30 years old, but with a career major league record of .195/.255/.329 in 492 at-bats, it seems unlikely that he'll ever get another shot except in an emergency.

So, what happened here?

I have seen a lot of Hermansen over the years, and his problem is easy enough to diagnose. He can't hit breaking balls. It was his weakness back in 2000 and it is his weakness now. He still has bat speed and power, but he's very pitchable and hasn't been able to get past a swing-from-the-heels approach for any length of time.

When he was young, the theory was that given his age that he would be able to resolve this problem eventually, but it never quite happened, granted his major league playing time was erratic and spread out, and the injuries did not help. But even if someone had given him 500 more at-bats to adjust to the majors, I doubt he would have been able to keep his batting average any higher than .240 at best, with a mediocre OBP and very high strikeout rate.

Lesson Learned:
Age-relative-to-league is important but not an absolute thing.
Some guys peak early and don't develop their skills even if they are young for their leagues early in their career.

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Comments

how does Matt Kemp avoid the same fate

as I was reading this, Kemp started to come to mind. What is the difference between the two that can prevent history repeating itself?

by SLK on Feb 26, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions

Well.....

.... first off, Kemp has never K'd nearly as much as Hermansen. Kemp has also maintained much higher averages all through the minors.

The big knock on Hermansen that he talks about above is that he never developed. The same weaknesses he had as a hitter when he was in the low minors, he had in the high minors.

Kemp has greatly refined his game as he progressed. He still does have problems with breaking pitches at times, but not nearly to the level he did. He has excellent results to go with the tools.

by grozzy on Feb 26, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

I almost wonder if a better comp....

... for a current Hermansen might be Brandon Wood, not taking into account position.

Hit well at a young age in the minors. Excellent hitting tools overall. Nasty problem with strikeouts that has kept average down a bit. Kept advancing without ever really taking the time to work on cutting down on the Ks. Poor showing in small samples in the majors (Wood's had a very small sample thus far).

by grozzy on Feb 26, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

how about throwing

"strikeouts DO hurt hitters" in there

by nms on Feb 26, 2008 3:06 PM EST reply actions

Personally...

and this is my belief, I don't think that stikeouts hurt by themselves, but they are good indicators of other things.

If a player is striking out a lot at a young age, or in the minors, I think that indicates a higher possibility of failure when they reach the majors. Strikeouts in and of themselves though don't bother me once a player reaches the majors. I don't care if Ryan Howard is striking out 180+ times a season if he is still getting on base enough, hitting 270 or higher in batting average and sending a bunch of balls over the outfield fences. But if a 20 year old in AA is striking out once per game against that level of pitcher, I would be wary that he will have major contact issues when and if he reaches the majors.

Personally I would prefer Howard strike out than ground into a double play. Of course, at he isn't able to advance runners via pop flys to the warning track if he is striking out either.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 26, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

that was my point

I acknowledge that a strikeout is only slightly worse than a "regular" out, though certainly more frustrating. By saying strikeouts matter I didn't they matter in the sense that the Ks themselves detract from a player's value. I meant that a players strikeouts raise significant worries that he will be unable to make sufficient contact in the majors.

by nms on Feb 26, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Depends

Strikeouts for hitters can't be looked at independently of other statistics. If a guy K's a lot, but he also walks alot, it means the guy is probably going deep into counts. I think this can be a good indicator for future success, despite the K's.

Showing you can go deep in the count to me shows you have the patience to wait for your pitch. Striking out a lot once you get in those counts tells me you still need to learn what a pitcher is going to show you in those counts / situations

Striking out a lot with few / little walks is a red flag to me. That means you're overmatched

Just some thoughts. Everything is interrelated

-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Feb 26, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

i think research as shown that

even the high K/high BB guys don't really fare all that great if their Ks are unreasonably high

by nms on Feb 27, 2008 4:44 AM EST up reply actions

1995

he was drafted?

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JD Sussman on Feb 26, 2008 3:22 PM EST reply actions

You'd think

Unless his failure was so great it violated the space-time continuum... ;)

"...and the only things I've found better than listening to Vin Scully are listening to Keith Jackson and uncut cocaine." (bleedjaxblue)

by drjayphd on Feb 26, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

3rd Lesson Learned

don't draft 28 years olds in the first round

by Trenchtown on Feb 26, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions

Question for John (or anybody else)

Do you know whether anybody has ever researched whether strikeout rate, by itself, might provide some indication of a minor leaguer's likely success level in the majors? Like, if a guy strikes out once every X number of ABs or less, there's little chance he'll succeed in the majors?

by WTM on Feb 26, 2008 5:31 PM EST reply actions

Fun fact:

Before spring training in 2000, Lloyd McClendon completely overhauled Hermansen's swing, to try and help him make more contact by making his stroke shorter (you can look it up. He went on to lose the Pirates' CF job, got demoted, and hit .224/.304/.384 at AAA, a level where he'd hit .270/.321/.530 the year before. He never really hit well for an extended period of time after that.

I remain convinced that McClendon screwed up his swing, and that Hermansen was never able to re-find the original stroke that had made him a prospect in the first place. I also think that explains why McClendon refused to play Hermansen in subsequent years: Seeing Chad struggle and flail reminded Lloyd of his mistake.

by Vlad on Feb 26, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions

Sounds a lot like what happened

to Jack Cust, especially in Baltimore.

I wish teams would let a player who is performing well do his thing, fail, and THEN try to change him. Unless the player is doing something that is likely to cause injury, like a pitcher with bad mechanics, it just makes no sense to try and change what works. Maybe Hermansen would've failed anyway, but this looks a lot like a bad organization ruining a promising young player.

by thejd44 on Feb 26, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

I don't understand

How could Hermansen be drafted in 2005, but played before that?

by SFG2008 on Feb 26, 2008 7:13 PM EST reply actions

typo

It's called A TYPO.

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions

Don't Worry John

He usually bets $1 on the Price is Right when he is the first person allowed to bid..lol thus don't be so hard on his lack of knowledge is was an obvious mistake

by dlpme77 on Feb 26, 2008 10:44 PM EST up reply actions

Apparently you haven't realized

the magical, mysterious powers of typographical errors.

by PaulThomas @ Minor League Ball on Feb 26, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

Most important lesson learned

being drafted by the Pirates in the first round = automatic death sentence.

by RollingWave on Feb 26, 2008 10:06 PM EST reply actions

Ouch

But the truth hurts...

by niespodj on Feb 28, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

Hermansen/Howard

When you look at them statistically at age 21 or 22, there would really be no reason to think that Ryan Howard would have a better major league career than Hermansen (or for that matter Calvin Pickering). Scouts didn't think much of Howard at that point anyway.

There are a couple of X factors in development. One of them is simple learning ability (it's not the sam thing as IQ). Hermansen apparently was not gifted with this ability to the degree that Howard was.

by Mike Green on Feb 27, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions

Microcosm of Pirates' baseball circa 1993-Present

Chad Hermansen epitomizes almost every aspect of recent Pirates' baseball:

The hope of a talented prospect who will lead the team back to glory.

The failure of said prospect along with the continued failure of the team.

Rumors of questionable coaching "tinkering" with the player's approach leading to complete haplessness.

Baffling departure of said player(traded to the Cubs for veteran Darren Lewis, who immediately retired rather than play for the Pirates.)

by calig23 on Feb 27, 2008 11:30 AM EST reply actions

by nms on Feb 27, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

I could see some value...

...in take/swing %s and contact rates for different pitches. It'd show whether a guy recognizes breaking stuff, whether he's sitting on the fastball, that kind of thing.

by Vlad on Feb 27, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions