Not a Rookie: Kurt Suzuki

by John Sickels on Feb 22, 2008 5:58 PM EST in News Comment 25 comments

Kurt Suzuki was drafted in the second round in 2004, out of Cal State Fullerton. He was an outstanding college player known for excellent leadership skills, clutch hitting, and solid all-around defense, though a lack of home run power kept him out of the first round. Oakland assigned him to Vancouver in the Northwest League, where he hit .297/.394/.440 in 46 games. I liked him a lot in college and gave him a Grade B in the 2005 book.

Assigned to Stockton in the California League for '05, Suzuki hit .277/.378/.440. He showed very fine plate discipline and hit 12 homers. But scouts said his defense deteriorated and his footwork was substandard. I lowered him to Grade C+ in the '06 book, speculating that perhaps he had been playing through an injury of some kind, since his defense had previously been rated very highly.

Suzuki played 99 games for Double-A Midland in 2006, hitting .285/.392/.415, again showing fine command of the zone with a touch of pop. His defense was much better: he showed more mobility and smoother footwork. I moved him back up to Grade B-.

Suzuki split 2007 between Triple-A and the majors, hitting .280/.351/.365 for Sacramento (55 games) and .249/.327/.408 for Oakland (68 games).

He opens 2008 as the regular catcher on the depth chart. What should we expect?

Offensively, Suzuki is a line drive hitter with good plate discipline and occasional spikes of power, though he will never be a big home run guy. With more experience, he projects (in my opinion) to produce major league numbers very similar to what he did in the minors: hit .270-.280 most of the time, with a solid OBP and a SLG in the low .400s. Projections for 2008:

James: .259/.337/.389
Shandler: .247/.322/.363
ZIPS: .248/.325/.369
Me: .270/.349/.395

I'm the optimist here, though I can see him struggling somewhat in '08 before doing better in '09.

Defensively, Suzuki made just two errors in the majors, but isn't the best at throwing out runners, catching just 19% for the Athletics. Of course, there is a lot more to catching than throwing out runners, much of it very difficult to measure statistically. He gets praise for his leadership skills and emotional intensity, again things that are hard to measure but that certainly exist. I doubt Oakland would be relying on him as the regular catcher to open '08 if they weren't happy with his glove, given that he's not going to be putting up huge hitting numbers even by the optimistic projections.

Here is what I think will happen with Suzuki. He'll put up non-impressive offensive numbers this year, but will hold the job due to his defense. He will improve in 2009, getting up to the .280/.360/.400 range or so. And he'll stay in that range for several years.

In 2012, at the age of 28, he'll have an unexpectedly excellent season with the bat, hit well over .300 or spike a bunch of power, or both. Then he'll come back to Earth again, back to his previous levels, and everyone will be disappointed. He eventually ends up as one of those backup catchers who lasts forever, not getting out of the majors until he's almost 40.

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The key question is

can he hold off Landon Powell if Powell is healthy?

Tools-wise, Powell seems to have all the advantages. He's struggled with injuries, but has moved quickly when he's been healthy enough to do so.

If-- big if-- Powell can maintain health, I'd have to think he would surpass Suzuki as the primary option. Then the question becomes whether to trade him or keep him on as a Mike Redmond-type of guy-- good injury insurance, platoon capability and so on.

I'm interested to hear people's thoughts on that particular (potential) positional battle.

by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 7:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Powell...

I'm not sure if he can stay at catcher for the long term. Due to all the surgeries on his knees he might not be able to continue behind the plate.

Although if powell gets healthy and STAYS healthy for a long enough period and plays well i think he has a shot. I think Suzuki would also have to struggle a bit this season to allow Powell to leap frog over him on the depth chart.

I'd say the chances of something like this happening are slim, but powell has much more upside at the plate.

by deadboy on Feb 22, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Gosh I love Landon Powell. I've never been so high on a prospect so old. Those damn knees and deserts.

by blee1134 on Feb 22, 2008 8:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He's not THAT old...

This year will be his age 26 season.

Being a catcher makes a difference, too. Catchers develop later (because they have to learn more than position players) and hold their value longer (because catcher defense doesn't really require speed). A lot of catchers don't peak until age 29-32. If Powell had no injury concerns, but was just a kind of old prospect, I'd say he was still a top candidate.

by PaulThomas on Feb 23, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Not sure deserts have hindered Landon Powell's progress. I meant desserts of course.

by blee1134 on Feb 22, 2008 8:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can Kurt Suzuki stay ahead of Powell

All the numbers says no. Powell has much more obvious talent than Suzuki. If Powell stays healthy at Sacramento with his tremendous power, he'll bypass Suzuki before the 2008 season is over and be the starter in 2009. But with Powell's history of injuries, it seems unlikely. Powell's best bet to stay injury free is to switch to first base/DH.

Suzuki has an innate talent to hit in the clutch. Seems every the games on the line, up comes Kurt. Who else on this A's team would you want to see up there, hitting in the clutch? Otherwise, Suzuki's talents are all ordinary, but combine his leadership qualities, Suzuki will be a starting catcher if not for the A's, then some other team for a long while.

by olaafan on Feb 22, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clutch?

Do you think Billy Beane believes in the concept of "clutch"?

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 22, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't even going to touch that post.

But I'm glad someone did.

by elrey34 on Feb 23, 2008 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A's biggest 'offensive' problem

You hit the nail on the head. Billy Beane apparently is not interested in players hitting in the 'clutch' as he is in high on-base percentages. As great a find Billy made in Jack Cust, Cust simply took too many pitches to either walk or strike out looking when he should've been swinging in an attempt to drive the runner(s) home. Same thing for Eric Chavez, who for his entire career seems to freeze up at bat whenever an important potential run is in scoring position. And these two guys will be batting third and fourth for 2008? Move Suzuki up in the batting order if he proves to be a better 'clutch' hitter.

by olaafan on Feb 23, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh Man!

As most everybody here knows, I am not Billy Beane's most ardent supporter, but he might be right on this one.

I do think that there are some players whose central nervous system allows them to handle "clutch" situations better than others, but that's a mighty hard hypothesis to prove. I do think that Billy's teams tend to rely too much on OBP. Sometime, with runners on base, you have to be aggressive and risk hitting a less than perfect pitch to try for the RBI's, but to just put a guy like Suzuki in the middle of the order because he is "clutch" might be taking that notion a bit too far. Besides, it looks to me like Suzuki takes his share of pitches too.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 23, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who bats where in today's A's lineup

The 2007 A's scored 741 runs, one of their lowest team production in years. I don't see how anyone could be satisfied with going with the same basic set in 2008.
Right now Suzuki is slotted to bat ninth, same as last year, where he made most of his few opportunities, so how is he going to prove he can continue to produce with limited chances to drive in runs with few runners on base? Suzuki had only 24 walks to go with 213 official at bats. Can't see how you can call this taking 'his share of pitches'. We already know Chavez can't hit in the 'clutch' and Cust takes too many pitches. Let Suzuki bat lower in the batting order, say 6th or 7th and see what he does. If he can't hack it, send him back to 9th.

by olaafan on Feb 23, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude

Kurt Suzuki's OBP-BA= .078. That's just a shade below the team average of .082 which was second in the league to Boston's .083. League average was .068, so yes, compared to league average, Kurt Suzuki was pretty good at drawing walks.

Now, if you want to make a case that Kurt Suzuki is a "clutch" hitter, define what situations are "clutch" situations and show us that he performed better in them than his overall average.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 24, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Addendum

You really think Kurt Suzuki, with an OPS of .735 should be hitting higher in the order than Jack Cust(.912), Travis Buck(.851), Daric Barton(1.068!), or even Dan Johnson(.767)?

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 24, 2008 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Walks

So you are saying that Suzuki should be batting higher in the lineup because he doesn't take as many walks? Nevermind the fact that he is quite likely to have the least offensive production of A's starters not named Bobby Crosby. Oh wait - he had some big hits in the college world series and his nickname is actually "Kurt Clutch". What more could you want?

by JimmyJack on Feb 25, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Big Hurtful commentary...

re: "simply took too many pitches to either walk or strike out looking when he should've been swinging in an attempt to drive the runner(s) home."

If I had a nickel for every time I had to endure this being said of Frank Thomas, I'd be a rich man.

by BobbyMac on Feb 23, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Richer than you

Hmm. If I had a nickel for every time I had to endure someone talking about an ex-A's, I'd be a rich, richer, richest man. Lets talk about our present team. Another thing we need on the team is more right handed batters interspersed with the many lefties. The proposed 2008 lineup of lefties Travis Buck, Daric Barton, Eric Chavez, and Jack Cust does not inspire much confidence. Mark Ellis should be in there somewhere.

by olaafan on Feb 23, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OAK-centric

To be honest, I wasn't even thinking of Frank's one season in Oakland... I live near Chicago, and got it for years and years, while he was even more of a force at the plate than during his one season out West. Ah well, people made up reasons to complain about Michael Jordan here, too. I guess it's human nature.

by BobbyMac on Feb 24, 2008 3:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OMG Funny

This is hilarious dude. You could be on FireJoeMorgan.com. And by "on" I mean the subject of a brutal fisking at the hands of Ken Tremendous...

by AucklandGM on Feb 24, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Cust have a handful of game winning hr's

and game winning hits last year. I'm pretty sure it was 5 or 6. Maybe I'm mistaken...

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 25, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I like Kurt as a starter, but would love him as a reserve. He can log over 60 games playing behind Powell

by blee1134 on Feb 22, 2008 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good call, John

The projection for Suzuki's career is entirely plausible. It is a prototype for the undervalued player's career- OBP heavy, and plays a key defensive position well but without flash. For him to be on the A's is the icing on the cake...

by Mike Green on Feb 22, 2008 9:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i'd love to see a powell/suzuki combo eventually

both can split time at catcher, powell can DH/1b some also. powell is already catching 2-3 times a week 7 months after surgery, so its solid progress. also according to him, he hasnt put on any weight compared to last time.

by rayver723 on Feb 22, 2008 10:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Suzuki

I've loved Suzuki since I saw him play in the CWS. He is one of the few players I have ever witnessed whose leadership skills are that pronounced to the point of being tangible.

This whole Powell/Suzuki discussion has followed him the whole way up. More than any other position, a catcher's worth to a team cannot be measured by numbers and the HUGE injury questions for Powell aside, I still take Suzuki as the catcher on my team.

Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Feb 22, 2008 10:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Russell Martin

I know Martin was a HS pick while Suzuki was a college draftee, but their numbers in the high minors are strikingly similar. High walks, moderate power, low strikeouts. They also hit AA at exactly the same age (22) and are around the same size (5'11", 200 pounds).

I realize Martin is a special case (heck, freak of nature is a better term) but I keep finding myself wondering if Martin can take a big step forward, then why not Suzuki?

If Martin represents the high end of what Suzuki might do, the low end is Gregg Zaun, which is still very respectable.

by slackerjack on Feb 23, 2008 12:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs