Not a Rookie: Felix Pie

by John Sickels on Feb 16, 2008 4:47 PM EST in News

Felix Pie was signed by the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. An excellent all-around athlete with strength and speed, he was rather raw when signed, though he hit well in his pro debut (.321/.385/.565) in the Arizona Rookie League in 2002, even hitting 13 triples. I gave him a Grade B- in the 2003 book, a high grade for a rookie ball player, noting his rawness but also praising his tools and writing that I was inclined to be optimistic.

The Cubs assigned Pie to the Midwest League in 2003. He played 124 games for Lansing, hitting .285/.346/.388, which came out to a +7 OPS. He stole 19 bases but was caught 13 times. Scouts continued to praise his athleticism and upside, and his strike zone judgment wasn't horrible. I gave him another Grade B- rating, though maintaining optimism about the future.

Pie moved up to Daytona in the Florida State League in '04, hitting .301/.364/.448 (+15 OPS) with 32 steals in 48 attempts. His power was increasing, as he whacked 10 triples and doubled his homer output from four to eight. However, his strikeout rate shot up, 113 whiffs in 106 games. I raised him to Grade B, impressed by his performance as a 19 year old in the Florida State League, noting the progress refining his tools into skills.

2005 was a good-news/bad-news season. The good: moving up to Double-A, he hit .304/.349/.554. He cut his strikeout rate back below one per game, while boosting his power output and setting a career high in homers. The bad: the career high in homers was 11 bombs in 59 games, as his playing time was limited by a severe ankle bruise. Nevertheless, there was enough progress that I was comfortable raising his grade to B+ in the 2006 book. I wrote "Pie is a high-risk, high-reward investment. He could be spectacular, or he could also be mediocre if he doesn't refine his game."

Pie was healthy in 2006, hitting .283/.341/.451 in 141 games for Triple-A Iowa. He hit 15 homers and 33 doubles, and stole 17 bases. Scouts reported that he improved his defense (which has previously been rather rough). He also played very well in July and August, hitting over .300 with 20 doubles in those two months alone. While his BB/K/AB ratio still wasn't ideal at 46/126/559, he did reduce his strikeout rate compared to past seasons. I gave him another Grade B+.

You know what happened in 2007. He was a monster in Triple-A (hitting .362/.410/.563 in 55 games for Iowa), but was pretty horrible in the majors, hitting .215/.271/.33 in 87 games for the Cubs. Plate discipline was a big problem, as I expected it would be. However he did flash some pop, he was much more effective stealing bases in the majors (eight in nine attempts) than he was in the minors, and his glove (which was a weakness at times in the minors) was just fine.

So, what happens now with Pie?

Cubs fans and people who invested fantasy resources in Pie are worried that his early struggles are a sign of possible Corey Pattersondom to come, a guy with tremendous tools who never turns them into consistent skills. This is certainly possible: it's a risk you run with any tools player who needs polish. And Pie does need more polish. However, it is much too early to panic or pull the plug on this guy.

He was just 22 last year, 23 heading into spring training 2008. Given his performance in 196 games of Triple-A, he has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. Since July 2006 he has been a monster for Iowa, and I see no point in sending him back there. Triple-A pitchers have nothing left to teach him. The best line Patterson ever managed at Iowa was .253/.308/.387. This is not the same thing at all.

If I were the Cubs, I would give Pie the center field job and let him play, don't pull the plug if he gets off to a slow start. I'd hit him low in the order, 8th if possible, and I'd just let him play. Given the improvement Pie has shown over the last few years, I think he has every chance to end up as a very good player, perhaps an excellent one, provided the Cubs retain faith in him if he gets off to a slow start.

Projections from the various prognosticators

Shandler: .285/.334/.461, 18 steals in 456 AB
James: 283/.333/.456, 23 steals in 553 AB
ZIPS: .269/.321/.429, 20 steals in 539 AB
Me: .266/.320/.433, 16 steals in 500 AB

I'm not as optimistic in the short run as the others, but in the long run I think Pie will be fine, IF they let him play long enough to work his issues out.

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Comments

I've never been a Pie fan

I do find it interesting that you point out the Corey Patterson thing, only because I've been saying for a few years that Pie is the second-coming of Patterson, but probably not as good with the bat. I think that's a pretty strong indictment.

Generally, I don't like tools guys who haven't shown they can actually play baseball. How many of those guys turn into the stars people project them to be? Sure, Patterson has become an ok player. Of course, Patterson is a 28 year old currently without a job.

I think every projection is too high for 2008. I think anything higher than a .305 OBP and a .400 SLG would be a miracle.

by thejd44 on Feb 16, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions

Ehhhh...

"Generally, I don't like tools guys who haven't shown they can actually play baseball."

So then what's the problem? He definately has shown he can play - tearing up AAA last year. This isn't a case like Cam Maybin or Milledge - he's actually done something in the minors. John has also understated his defense from what I saw last year - dude can play a pretty good CF. His defense actually extended his stay in the majors last year. The only thing Patterson and Pie really have in common is that were both black CF'ers that came from the Cubs minor league system. Pie is not the second coming of Patterson. I think that's a pretty wrong indictment.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Feb 16, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

actually

to be politically correct, Felix Pie is not black.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Feb 16, 2008 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

Just looked

at his picture again. I'm no optometrist, but...

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Feb 16, 2008 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

OK, C.C.

pretty sure "politically correct" isn't the word you're looking for though.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 16, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions

yeah it is

Calling a Dominican person black is not politically correct. It's exactly the word I was looking for.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Feb 17, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

this is me

not knowing whether to laugh or cry right now

but, no -- it's not

some day, you'll learn what "politically correct" means

or what "black" means

either way

now, if you want to take a stance against the term "black" in general, i have no problem, but you're making it tough for me to pretend that that's what you mean

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 17, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

Milledge

" This isn't a case like Cam Maybin or Milledge - he's actually done something in the minors. "

Ummm...Milledge was actually good in the minors.

by rsvandy on Feb 16, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions

Ummm...

Not really. He never posted a 900 OPS like Pie has done in the upper minors. He did it in low A and once when the sample size was very small. He was a decent player, but his performace wasn't really consumate with a top 10 prospect.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Feb 17, 2008 7:48 AM EST up reply actions

Ummm...

What you have said is irrelevant. Milledge was actually productive in the minors. I wasn't really comparing him to Pie.

by rsvandy on Feb 17, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

There's a lot of comparisons

between Pie and Patterson. They're almost identical players: Fast, left-handed, center fielders (and both are pretty good defensively), horrible plate patience, poor contact. I'm actually a little annoyed at the implication you make about me: I'm not (and I'm sure John isn't) saying they're alike because of a similar skin tone. Same position and same organization does make the comparison easy to make though. And I think playing in the same organization does matter. It can be argued that the Cubs horrible player development ruined Patterson. The same can be argued in the case of Pie. Pie is young, but by this age Patterson already had something like 800 major league PA. So really, Patterson was probably ahead of Pie.

There's just too much there that suggests they're the same guy.

by thejd44 on Feb 17, 2008 1:14 AM EST up reply actions

Aint buyin' it

Patterson was most definately rushed. Pie - not so much. How can you argue that "the Cubs horrible player development ruined" Pie? You can't because it's waaaay too early. He wasn't as rushed as Patterson. He also has a different build than Corey as he's taller/wirery and appears as if he could fill out a bit. I stick by my assertion: if Pie wasn't black and/or didn't come through the Cubs orginization - we wouldn't be seeing Patterson comp.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Feb 17, 2008 8:01 AM EST up reply actions

Maybin

Hit 316/409/523 in A+/AA last year. That's doing nothing? Damn, you're a tough grader...

by jc3 on Feb 17, 2008 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

+1

I much prefer cake.

by elrey34 on Feb 17, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

I understand...

about you thinking they should bat him lower in the line-up, but I have a different philosophy. I like hitting players with his talent level 2nd. They don't have the pressure of leading off, and I think they see better pitches hitting in front of the #3 hitter (Derek Lee I am guessing). If the Cubs continue to bat Soriano lead-off (I hate that by the way) they could come back with Pie, Lee, A-Ram, Fukudome, Soto, and then whatever combo of 2B/SS they are running.

Of course if they make the trade for Brian Roberts, there is no way Pie can hit that high, cause Roberts would have to be leading off and Soriano probably hitting 2nd. And a lot of this depends on what kind of hitter Fukudome is in America. I think he may be a good 2-hitter type. If he is, I think this line-up could be pretty sick:

2B-Roberts
RF-Fukudome
LF-Soriano
1B-Lee
3B-Ramirez
C-Soto
CF-Pie
SS-Theriot

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 16, 2008 5:30 PM EST reply actions

PIE

If there is a major criticism that I have of baseball scouting reports, in particular, its that they don't incorporate character enough. And not character in the sense that "Corey Patterson knocked off a convenience store when he was 14", kind of character. But it is germane to point out that Corey could've won the lottery on a first date with a Supermodel and still displayed the same kind of flat-affect which infuriated Cub fans that he featured throughout countless mediocre performances in Wrigley. My point being that Pie has been characterized as a dynamic presence in the clubhouse, who is popular among his teams as they have proceeded to win many minor-league championships during his tenure in the Cubs farm system. This should be mentioned in scouting reports at some point, because this kind of joi de vive is precisely what often separates the winners from the losers.

by jerious norwood on Feb 16, 2008 8:46 PM EST reply actions

Comparison

I see Pie evolving into a Curtis Granderson type player.

by sully10x on Feb 16, 2008 9:19 PM EST reply actions

Granderson-Type

I think you're hugely optimistic. I don't ever see Pie slugging over .550 in any single big league season, or showing the kind of range Granderson does in CF. I do like him, but he's not Granderson, who is probably the best center fielder in all of baseball right now.

by robertgold on Feb 16, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

Best Cf

who can't hit lefties for shit.

by BoydsOfSummer on Feb 17, 2008 2:20 AM EST reply actions

I thought...

that was Jim Edmonds.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 17, 2008 7:58 AM EST up reply actions

Not to be an ass

"However, his strikeout rate shot up, 113 whiffs in 106 at-bats."

that's like a record or something.

I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 17, 2008 2:39 PM EST reply actions

Games...

not at-bats.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 17, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Uh huh...

The similarity to Corey Patterson is relevant, but generally overblown. Yes, they share an extremely similar tool set. However, the manner they have been handled is about as opposite as you can get.

CPatt was rushed up to the majors and spent most of his tenure with the Cubs being taught all the wrong things. Dusty Baker and his hitting coaches (Gene Clines and Gary Matthews often switched between 1B coach and hitting coach, but they always shared the duties) tried to completely remake Patterson at the major league level. They attempted to turn him into a speedy leadoff guy who would mostly concentrate on putting the ball on the ground and trying to use his speed to get to first. Their philosophy was also extremely aggressive, which exacerbated Corey's problems with his plate discipline. It's often an overlooked aspect of his tenure, but Dusty did as much to sink CPatt as he did Prior and Wood.

Yeah, the Cubs FO has tried to teach Pie how to lay down a bunt, but their new hitting coaches (Von Joshua at AAA and Gerald Perry in Chicago) have also been stressing pitch selection with Pie, and leaning how to be "aggressive within the zone." In my humble opinion, the front office seems to have recognized the err when dealing with Corey, and have decided to mostly let Pie develop along his natural leaning curve, rather than forcing him to become a player that he isn't.

Yeah, the tools are eerily alike. But the Cubs that brought up Corey Patterson aren't the same Cubs that are bringing up Felix Pie. In the coming seasons, people will come to realize that.

by CubbieBlue66 on Feb 18, 2008 3:33 AM EST reply actions