Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by mssickels on Jan 8, 2008 10:58 AM EST in News Comment 50 comments

All grades are Extremely Preliminary and subject to change

Travis Snider, OF, Grade B+
Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+
Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade B-
J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C+ (for some reason I have a few doubts)
John Tolisano, 2B, Grade C+
Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C+ (will he hit?)
Trystan Magnuson, RHP, Grade C+
Curtis Thigpen, C, Grade C+
Yohermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C+
Marc Rzepcynski, LHP, Grade C+
Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C (ratios have really slipped)
Ryan Patterson, OF, Grade C (disappointed in him)
Robinzon Diaz, C, Grade C
Brian Wolfe, RHP, Grade C
Josh Banks, RHP, Grade C
David Purcey, LHP, Grade C
Brandon Magee, RHP, Grade C
Alan Farina, RHP, Grade C
Jacob Butler, OF, Grade C
Buck Coats, OF, Grade C

Other Grade C guys interchangeable with those above include Eric Eiland, Edgar Estanga, Kyle Ginley, Anthony Hatch, Brian Jeroloman, Josh Kreuzer, Jean Machi, Darin Mastroianni, Brad Mills, Cory Patton, Paul Phillips, Sergio Santos, Tracy Thorpe, and Randy Wells.

This system was running dry and the 2007 draft class should help.

As usual, don't freak about specific placement on the list, the grades are more important.

Complete reports on over 1,000 minor league players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book. The book ships the first Monday of February.

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Comments

Romero

Man this guy has fallen...What do people think of him going forward? Has anyone seen him this year?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 8, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately, yes

He missed significant time (again) with shoulder troubles, which I would relate to his ratios falling apart. He was pretty bad in most of his starts after returning, but did have a couple good ones. This will be a make-or-break year for him, IMO.

by ajake57 on Jan 8, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Two questions

Why Cecil so high? And are there questions about Tolisano I don't know about? He seems more like a B- guy to me, though I guess that's quibbling.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 8, 2008 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

J.P Arencibia

John, please explain your doubts with this guy. You shouldn't put him that low, but I am interested why you feel negative towards him.

by Sabean2009 on Jan 8, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Book

If you buy his book, I am sure there will be an explanation inside!

by drwmsu1 on Jan 8, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Surprised Cecil is B+ but thinks he deserves it

Glad someone like John is on board.

by novaoakland on Jan 8, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Snider B+?

How the heck is Travis Snider only a B+?

by metafour on Jan 8, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

Because he's never had a PA above lo-A?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 8, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AFL

I can see that as a reason why, but Snider did hit .316/.404/.541 in the AFL and seemed to get rave reviews from scouts there. I thought he was an easy A-.

by Pistol on Jan 8, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PA's above Low-A? Come on...

Snider would MORE THAN hold his own at AA if he were up there. The Blue Jays are among the least aggresive minor leagues in baseball in that they rarelly rush prospects. Snider is one of the top pure hitting prospects in baseball, not even debatable.

by metafour on Jan 8, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

actually it's very debatable

LD% - 14%
BABIP - .404
K% - 24.7%

He had a great year, but based on those numbers, I'd have a tough time putting him in my top 20 right now.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 8, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I believe he's given out A- to guys in low A b4

I believe he gave an A- to Kershaw out of Rookie ball. I'm not saying that Kershaw didn't deserve it, but it has happened before.

I have to admit I'm kind of surprised how low John graded Snider especially consider other prospects that he's given A- to, not to mention that Snider is a much better prospect than Cecil. Then again I felt that Adam Jones deserved to be an A- and Lowrie wasn't one.

Then again, with the Lowrie exception, I've noticed that John has been a tougher grader than the last couple years. There are alot fewer A- than there used to be.

by parrot11 on Jan 8, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing

the reason is a combination of (a) his Kruk-ian build doesn't leave a lot of value if his stick doesn't turn out to be exceptional, and (b) his numbers, while very good, came in A-ball.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 8, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lars Anderson says hi

Two 2006 HS draftees were clearly ahead of the rest of their peers in full season baseball in 2007. The other one also got a B+ rating from Sickels, so he is being consistent. They are both the same age, and each has their advantages and disadvantages:

Snider hit for more power (advantage TS)
Anderson had more patience (advantage LA)
Anderson has a more projectable build (advantage LA)
Snider played (and starred) in the AFL (advantage TS)
Anderson played well after a late season promotion to A+ (advantage LA)
Anderson has better plate discipline (advantage LA)

by slackerjack on Jan 8, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You shouldn't

count patience and plate discipline as two different catagories. It is like saying Snider hits for more power (Advantage TS) and Snider hits more HRs (Advantage TS). The two are directly related.

And if you want to get outside numbers and start talking scouting (projectable build), you should also mention that scouts like Snider more and they think he has the higher ceiling.

by Sal on Jan 8, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cite?

Point me to some "scouts are saying" articles. Because I haven't heard a single thing about Snider being projected to have a higher ceiling than Anderson.

by slackerjack on Jan 9, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gladly

Once a few overall prospect rankings come out, I will point you to them.

by Sal on Jan 9, 2008 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Marrero

also got a B+.

by bk11 on Jan 8, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

which one?

Which Chris Marrero are we talking about here?

The Washington Nationals one or the Chicago White Sox one? Actually, I think they are brothers.

The Washington one I guess. He's a 5 months younger than Snider (and 10 months younger than Anderson) and put up some pretty astounding numbers in slow-A. He didn't hit very well after a promotion to A+, but my guess is that was more due to fatigue than being overmatched.

Based on his age and performance, I would say that Marrero is a better prospect than Snider. It would not be outrgeous to rate him a A- or A, but my guess is that poor defense is the reason.

by slackerjack on Jan 9, 2008 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

based on age?

he is 5 months younger, and you're giving him an advantage because of this? 5 months? really?

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (gio, fautino, and el nino)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 9, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure why

You are complaining about a B+ grade for a guy that did not advance past low-A ball last year. Especially considering the fact that he has below-average speed, and the power is still more projection than results.

Snider is being overrated by a lot of people right now. I, for one, am glad to see John got this one right.

by guru4u on Jan 8, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No results showing power?

"and the power is still more projection than results."

You're right; slugging well over 500 in rookie level, low-A, and AFL is not a result that shows power...

by Sal on Jan 8, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Numbers out of context

Snider was a doubles machine in 2007. His .525 SLG was fueled by 35 2 baggers and a .377 OBP. Color me impressed, but not floored. Other players like Chris Marrero posted superior stats to Snider, yet Snider is a consensus top 20 prospect. Why? Projection. Not results.

by guru4u on Jan 8, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

um, context?

The Midwest League is a notoriously tough place to hit. Doing what Snider did one year removed from High School was a spectacular performance. Snider was a full 100 points better in OPS than the next 19 year old (Hank Conger -- .808).

If he had a more projectable build, he would easily be rated A-, or even an A.

It's not like he's slow or a bad athlete. Snider reportedly has ok speed and is not a total butcher in the OF. However, if he puts on any weight at all he's not going to be too heavy and slow to play OF in the majors.

Snider is projecting to be a lefthanded version of Billy Butler

by slackerjack on Jan 9, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so basically ..

you want to cherry pick your stats to prove your point?

Saying that Marrero has superior stats is ridiculous to any unbiased person. Snider posted better numbers overall in a much tougher hitting environment. Snider lead his league by a huge margin in SLG and OPS. You cannot say the same about Marrero.

And btw, SLG has nothing to do with OBP. SLG is Total Bases/AB.

by Sal on Jan 9, 2008 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

actually, he has it backwards

You can argue that Marrero is a better prospect than Snider, but not because of numbers. Snider clearly has him beat there after adjusting for context (tho the Sally league isn't a really "easy" hitting league either).

Marrero's edge comes from:

(a) age
(b) athleticism
(c) being pushed harder (he already has a 1/2 season of high-A under his belt)

Snider is one of my favorite prospects, but I think Marrero will end up being a better hitter in the majors.

It's also interesting that Snider (14) and Marrero (15) were drafted back-to-back in the 2006 draft.

by slackerjack on Jan 9, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lets get real...

age? 5 months? are you kidding me?

Athleticism? You make Marrero sound like a gazelle in the outfield when he seems destined for 1st base.

pushed harder? You're right, he was promoted only to post respectable but unspectacular numbers. Had his numbers not dropped, you could have had an argument. Point is, he has not mastered high-A yet, and both players will start in high-A next year.

Marrero might end up hitting better in the majors, but nobody knows. All we can do is look at thier current performances in order to evaluate them. And right now, Snider's numbers are the better ones.

by Sal on Jan 9, 2008 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not absurd

When players are as young as this, a 1/2 year of physical (and heck, psychological) maturity can make a difference. So if 5 months is an insignifcant difference, is 10 months enough? Marrero, for all intents and purposes, is a full year younger than Lars Anderson. Would you factor that in when comparing those two guys? I sure would.

Marrero showed up as being 17 in baseball-reference.com, and I was wondering how that was possible for a US born player. I guess the "baseball age" cutoff is different from the draft eligibility cutoff.

I do understand what you're saying about Marrero's "athleticism". Snider may be "bad bodied", but it sounds like he is able to catch and throw quite a bit better than Marrero. If Marrero keeps growing, he's going to turn into an Adam Dunn sized monster.

by slackerjack on Jan 9, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'll have to agree to disagree..

about age. I personally think not many will give an age advantage to one player over another based on 5-month difference.

by Sal on Jan 9, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

age is irrelevant in this context

Age/level is used as a broad guideline to measure where a player is in his development. However, players develop at different rates, and becuase a player is five months younger than another, it does not mean that he is five months further from his production ceiling or that he is at a disadvantage facing the same competition.

by ayjackson on Jan 10, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WHAT???

Ok, you made two very uninformed comments in your post:

"And btw, SLG has nothing to do with OBP. SLG is Total Bases/AB."

?? Since when did getting a walk or getting a single not constitute a total base???

"Saying that Marrero has superior stats is ridiculous to any unbiased person. Snider posted better numbers overall in a much tougher hitting environment."

Lansing, Snider's home park all of last year, was actually more of a hitters park than pitchers park in 2007. Over a 3 year average, it's pretty darn neutral.

Hagerstown, meanwhile, was very neutral both in terms of 2007 and the 3 year average. Yet Marrero, in admittedly a smaller sample size, posted far superior numbers against similar competition. He only struggled when he moved up to high-A ball.

You really need to do some research before posting next time.

Sources:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_minor_league_park_multipliers/

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Christopher%20Marrero&pos=NON_P&si d=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502029

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Travis%20Snider&pos=NON_P&sid=milb &t=p_pbp&pid=501983

by guru4u on Jan 9, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I slipped

I did not mean to say walk.

by guru4u on Jan 9, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

slugging percentage

he is wrong that OBP has nothing to do with SLG, but walking doesn't have anything to do with slugging percentage.

i mean, there's probably a correlation. but it's not part of the formula.

also, comparing park factors in different leagues is completely meaningless. i have no opinion on which is tougher, but your comparison really is comparing apples and oranges.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 9, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're right

I meant walking has nothing to do with SLG as shown by the SLG % formula. Since OBP and SLG are both affected by AVG then there is a relationship.

by Sal on Jan 9, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah...i understood you

which is why i didn't say anything.

there's also a correlation that's non-overlapping: players with higher slugging percentages tend to get walked more. but that's not really related to your point.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 9, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

speaking of uninformed

I don't mind people copping an attitude if they actually know what they are talking about...

The baseline for those park factors from the Baseball Think Factory article you linked to is based on the league the park is in. So what if Lansing is a hitters park? The league as a whole is still a pitchers league. For what its worth, Snider actually hit better on the road, so it's hard to argue his numbers were fueled by his home park.

Read further down in the thread and you'll find that in 2007, MWL teams scored 4.34 runs per game while in the SAL, where Marrero played, teams scored 4.98 p/g.

Snider derived some benefit from playing his home games in Lansing, but overall he was still playing in tougher hitting environment than Marrero.

Another interesting tidbit is Marrero was uniformly awful when playing on the road last year. His home parks were both pretty neutral, so one might hazard a guess that it's tough going on the road when you turned 19 in July?

by slackerjack on Jan 9, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lugnuts' park

Lansing is a horrible park for lefthanded sluggers apparently.

by ayjackson on Jan 10, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

i think snider's an A-, but i wouldn't call this a "what the heck" grade. it's perfectly reasonable.

brett cecil, on the other hand, made me go "what the heck." maybe i'm sleeping on him, but a polished college lefty dominating the NYP for 50 innings warrants a B+?

by jpahk on Jan 8, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

question for John

how bad in your opinion is this system compared to the rest? bottom third? bottom 5? are you optimistic that that ranking will change as the 2007 class and potential future draftees progress through the system or is much work still needed?

by lexomatic on Jan 8, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Balbino

Is Fuenmayor not a prospect? I know he didn't do much last year, but the Jays did invest a bit of $$$.

Daddyboy

by Daddyboy on Jan 8, 2008 3:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

order

is there any particular order that he is publishing top 20s?

by websterjtc on Jan 8, 2008 4:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

None discernible. Four more to go.

by berkowit28 on Jan 8, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At least 5

Cardinals
Rockies
Giants
Indians
Devil Rays

by drob320 on Jan 8, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question

Does anyone know the order of the remaining teams anymore?

I know at one point he was posting the order of the upcoming teams.

In Todd Jones (*gulp*) we trust?

by sportznut3081 on Jan 8, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Lind

I know he's not officially a prospect anymore, but if he were, what is the group's opinion on what his grade would be? John gave him an A- last year, but did his disappointing stint in the majors change the view?

Personally I'd call him a B+ and rank him behind Snider but ahead of Cecil.

I know John has plenty to keep him busy, but it sure would be nice to see a listing of the top players in an organization under age 25, similar to what BP is doing.

by CubsFan on Jan 8, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

I remember the aggressive A- grade given to Snider caused a stir and it was justified that he was only a B+. This year a B+ seems rather conservative as he probably would've justified your A- ranking.

The K rate is issue and when he was patient he didn't hit so it's possible you've seen something there.

At least some of the list resembles my list but ouch to having both Romero and Purcey at C's.

Go Jays!!!!

Allan's World Music

Bluebird Banter

by achengy on Jan 8, 2008 5:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ricky Romero at C

In 2006, Romero was excellent at high A through ten starts with a K rate 9.41, a Hit rate of 7.41 and a walk rate of 2.16. He was promoted to AA and got a rough ride for the first few weeks. He then settled down and pitched well over the final six or so starts at AA.

That earned a B ranking if memory serves.

This year, Romero struggles with injuries, hits the DL and then comes back for Fall Ball and pitches well in limited innings out of the pen. For this, he drops a full grade to C, citing poor ratios, and is almost written off by everyone. Rough year indeed. To bad you couldn't keep that walk rate down with through those arm problems, Ricky.

by ayjackson on Jan 10, 2008 5:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Injuries SHOULD bring grades down

A prospect who is not injury prone should have higher grade than a similarly talented prospect who is injury prone.

Romero did absolutely nothing that warrants him a grade over C. His AFL numbers were OK but nothing special, and they were in relief.

by Sal on Jan 11, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a full grade?

He didn't become a different pitcher because his arm hurt. If injuries become a consistent problem year upon year, the prospect light dims considerably. But this full grade drop in light of Ricky's arm problem this year smacks of poor research, in my opinion.

by ayjackson on Jan 11, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sticky?

Grade C Prospects

I'm going to try and explain what the grades mean here with some examples. First, the definition of a Grade C prospect:
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
OK, now some examples.

Cesar Ramos, LHP, San Diego Padres
Bats: L Throws: L HT: 6-2 WT: 190 DOB: June 22, 1984

A finesse lefty, Ramos passed the Double-A test last year, winning 13 games in the Texas League and ranking third in the league ERA hunt. His fastball is average in the 87-89 range, but he mixes with a slider and changeup. All his pitches are average, but his location is sharp, and he is fearless on the mound. Although I am pleased with his overall performance in the Texas League, I still don't like his K/IP ratio, and he doesn't get enough ground balls to compensate for that. Homers will be a problem as he continues to move up, unless he improves his command from very good to perfect. Grade C.

Ramos is a Grade C because he's shown major league potential and had a good year in Double-A, but there are red flags in his statistics that keep him out of the elite category in my mind. Other analysts seem to like him better than I do.

Danny Rams, C, Minnesota Twins
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-2 WT: 205 DOB: December 19, 1988

Minnesota drafted Danny Rams in the second round last June, out of high school in Florida. He is supposed to have excellent power, but he sure didn't show it in rookie ball. His strike zone judgment is quite poor, and even his supporters admit that he has to refine his swing and his approach at the plate. He has a good arm, but his defense is mediocre at best, due to lack of mobility and athleticism, and many scouts believe he'll end up at first base eventually. I don't want to overreact to a 27 game sample size in rookie ball, but Rams clearly has a lot of work ahead. I doubt he will advance quickly. Grade C.

Rams is a Grade C because scouts like him enough that he was drafted in the second round, and he looks like he should hit for power, but he hasn't done it yet. His statistical set is small, and he is a LONG way from the majors.

Clay Rapada, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Bats: R Throws: L HT: 6-5 WT: 180 DOB: March 9, 1981

The Tigers picked up Clay Rapada late last summer, from the Cubs, in exchange for Craig Monroe. He has little left to prove in the minors, and will have a shot at a LOOGY job in the Detroit pen in '08. Rapada has an average fastball, but an effective breaking ball. His command can waiver at times, but he has a deceptive delivery that's tough on lefties. Although he's closed in the minors, I doubt he'll pick up many saves in the majors. Grade C.

Rapada is close to the majors, but is a Grade C because he projects as a useful role pitcher but will likely not take a large role.

These three guys have different profiles, but you can see they fit the definition of a Grade C prospect: a guy who has something going for him and has a chance to reach the majors, but without any big indications (yet anyway) that they are going to be a star or even a regular. The Grade C is short-hand for "has a chance, but there is enough doubt that we can't project big success at this time." It also emphasizes that you have to read the comment to get the full picture on the player.

by cooper7d7 on Jan 15, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs