Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 for 2008

by John Sickels on Jan 6, 2008 7:05 PM EST in News Comment 53 comments

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Grade A-
Steven Pearce, OF-1B, Grade B+
Neil Walker, 3B, Grade B (not convinced he'll hit quite as well as they expect)
Daniel Moskos, LHP, Grade B
Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+ (pending recovery from TJ)
Brian Bixler, SS, Grade C+
Shelby Ford, 2B, Grade C+
Duke Welker, RHP, Grade C+
Brian Friday, SS, Grade C+
Andrew Walker, C, Grade C+
Jamie Romak, OF, Grade C
Nyjer Morgan, OF, Grade C
Brad Corley, OF, Grade C
Bryan Bullington, RHP, Grade C
Matt Peterson, RHP, Grade C
Romulo Sanchez, RHP, Grade C
Quincy Latimore, OF, Grade C
Marcus Davis, OF, Grade C
Tony Watson, LHP, Grade C
Josh Sharpless, RHP, Grade C

Other Grade C include James Boone, Pat Bresnahan, David Davidson, Yoslan Herrera, Jared Hughes, Evan Meek, Luis Munoz, Jonel Pacheco, Alexander Presley, Todd Redmond, Kevin Roberts, Brian Rogers, Marino Salas, and Keanon Simon. Note as usual that these are all interchangeable with the other Grade C.

What a horrible system. There isn't much else to say about it.

Again, don't get all pissy about exact placement on this list. The grades are more important than someone being ranked 15th instead of 13th.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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question for John

John, how can this be a 'horrible system' while the Phillies aren't? The Top 20 for each team, at least with regard with your grades, are roughly equivalent. Should the Phillies be somewhere at least close to horrible?

I'm not accusing you of anything, I'm just curious about the differences between the two. Thanks.

by sabernar on Jan 6, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

upside

My guess is that the Phillies have some more upside among their B-/C+ types (Golson et all) than the Pirates. Just glancing at this list, a lot of those guys like Bixler would be lucky to be a halfway decent regular.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Jan 6, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Phillies system

is sad, not horrible

by smittybanton on Jan 6, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not much point...

they're both terrible.

But like others have pointed out, the Phillies actually have very successful products on the field out there . they have 4 abosalute super stars in Howard / Utley / Rollins / Hamels, and several solid players like Myers / Burrell / Victorino and to a lesser extend Madson / Ruiz etc.. where as the best Pirate players produced is.. Bay.. who's good (until last season anyway) but not on the level of the Phillies' fantastic 4. they have a few more servicable guys out there than the Philleis but that doesn't say much.

still though, I would certianly hope the new GM could slowly bring the Pirates back to some sort of respectability slowly. it's sad seeing one of the best NL org before the strike turn into such a disgrace.

by RollingWave on Jan 7, 2008 8:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bay

They can't even claim Bay, who came up with the Padres.

by ben p on Jan 8, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bay

The Padres, the Mets, and the Expos. :)

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 8, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Moskos

Does anyone have a scouting report on him? I was surprised he was ranked this high, as PIT does not know how to develop any of their young pitchers or they have terrible scouts

by lakerfan030 on Jan 6, 2008 7:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wait...

Snell and Gorzellany say, "Hi!".

by cooper7d7 on Jan 7, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wait . . .

John Benschoten, Sean Burnett, David Beigh, Jeremy Guthrie, Bryan Bullington, Blair Johnson, Paul Maholm, and Zach Duke say hi too!!

by lakerfan030 on Jan 7, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeremy Guthrie?

I thought he was Cleveland?

by bl on Jan 7, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

100%

What organization can develop ALL of their pitchers?

by cooper7d7 on Jan 7, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

JVB = serious surgery.

Sean Burnett = serious surgery.

Bryan Bullington = serious surgery.

Paul Maholm has not been great, but he has not been bad. His ERA has been in line with the average #3/#4 starter in the NL, and there's no shame in that.

Zach Duke was great until Jim Colburn changed his mechanics and made him a wreck.

Chris Young? Matt Capps? Bronson Arroyo? Mike Gonzalez? Damaso Marte? Joe Beimel? Kris Benson? Duaner Sanchez? All came up through the Pirates' system.

Pittsburgh has done A LOT wrong, but their track record with pitchers isn't actually that bad. If anything they do a pretty decent job and idiotically cut or trade good young arms for nothing.

by niespodj on Jan 7, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers

A lot of those pitchers finally learned to pitch in other organizations. Arroyo was garbage with the Pirates as was Young. Beimel was garbage. Sanchez was nothing more than a minor leaguer with tools. The only ones you can give the Pirates credit for on that list are Capps, Benson, and Gonzalez. Marte came from the White Sox, by the way.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 8, 2008 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ollie Ollie

Can't have a discussion about Pirates pitching and not mention Oliver Perez.

by Yakker on Jan 12, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Horrible System?

I don't think so. Half of your gradings for other teams don't have an A- prospect

This is a good system, just wait till the Giants' one comes out

by Sabean2009 on Jan 6, 2008 7:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's pretty bad...

Perhaps not the worst in MLB but it's in the discussion. When Jamie Romak barely misses the cut for your top 10, you're in trouble. Also, I think McCutchen is a bit of an over-grade at A-. ^_^

by mraver on Jan 6, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in Mind

That the Pirates need a lot! The Phillies, not so much.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball

by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McCutchen as an A- is a terrible mistake

He shouldn't be much more than a B prospect. He shouldn't even sniff a B+. The fact that Carlos Gomez out hit him in the same league and at the same age in 2006, is why McCutchen is only a B prospect to me. Gomez in 2006 in AA at age 20 in Binghamton .281 .350 .423. McCutchen age 20 this year in AA: .258 .327 .383, sure he hit in AAA .313 but showed zero power and had a BABIP of well over .350. Not a top 30 prospect for me and I suspect he won't be much more than a richmans Nook Logan.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 6, 2008 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

agree

"Terrible mistake" might be a little dramatic, but I agree he's no more than B. He's a little guy with so-so plate discipline who hit .244/.307/.355 against right-handed pitching in Double-A last season. Good speed won't take him far if he keeps striking out more than 100 times a year and doesn't hit for power.

by bolton on Jan 6, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

mccutchen just didnt show much this year. he is still young and can rebound but i dont know that he is elite. i dont see how neil walker is much different than mccutchen, both seem to get pretty good scouting reports and while walker is a little older he was also coming of a wrist injury and dealing with a position change and outperformed mccutchen while they were on the same team this year.

by taggartd on Jan 6, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

agree

by LipstickOnDipstick on Jan 6, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Yeah, McCutch will get a B on John's 2009 list.

by Yakker on Jan 12, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

"...at the same age in 2006..."

Keep in mind that the players played a 2007 season.

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by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What I ment is

Gomez was 20 when he played in AA in 2007 while McCutchen was 20 years old this year and played in AA. I was comparing their success in AA.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 6, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Understand That

My point was that a year has passed, a lot can change in a year so comparing two players based on what they did a year ago is misleading.

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by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

C'mon

As a project, go compare the career minor league BB%, XBH%, ISOp, and SB% numbers for McCutchen and Jacoby Ellsbury (an A- here). Then, keep in mind that Ellsbury is 3 years older and was a much more polished product when he started his minor league career. Then keep in mind that McCutchen is just about as good of a defensive CF (if not better) with a better arm. See where I'm going with this?

So, the guy had a rough 1/2 year in AA at age 20. He was obviously rushed. He should have been in A+ last year, but he played too well in AA in 2006 to send him back.

Cutch is a great prospect, one that I think is underrated here. He's shown great ability in the past, including power, and he probably just needs a consolidation year in AAA before he's ready to go. To me, he's a 310/380/470 player in his prime, while also being a plus CF with 50 SB potential. Just give him a little time here...

by jc3 on Jan 6, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I don't know why, but I really like McCutch too. I have a gut feeling he is going to be a very good major leaguer.

by bl on Jan 6, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

These are probably the same people who were freaked out by Felix Pie's Age 21 season in AAA (2006) - http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11427

or by Hanley's Age 21 season in AA (2005) - http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11816

Age relative to league and tools matter. If we're going to keep on being skeptical of 22 year olds who haven't hit AA, don't we have to in turn give credit to those who are playing fairly well in the upper minors as one of the youngest in their respective leagues?

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Jan 7, 2008 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

um Pie blows away McCutchen

and he hasn't hit in the majors, not a good sign for McCutchen.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 7, 2008 5:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

So because Pie hasn't hit in 177 MLB AB's he's not going to hit, and neither is McCutchen? That's just stupid. McCutchen has shown better discipline at the plate than Pie has so far, and even with Cutch struggling this year he cut his K rate from last. The Pirates rushed him to AA, when he really should have been in A+ ball, regardless of what he did at the end of the year in 2006. My guess is, if they actually give him all year in AAA this year, he'll bounce back just fine.

"There are no steroids in baseball. Just players Chuck Norris has breathed on."-chucknorrisfacts.com

by gatling on Jan 7, 2008 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Winter Ball

From what I've read Pie is also struggling a lot in winter ball. Can't find the link right now, but I read that the Cubs are sending coaches down to work with him...not a good sign.

by HectorLuna on Jan 7, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

You completely missed the point I was trying to make. Age relative to league and tools are important. If prospecting was just about looking at OPS and BB/K, all of us would have MLB jobs, wouldn't we?

By the way, a 22 year old not hitting in his first 200 MLB PA as a PART-TIME player says absolutely nothing about McCutchen.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Jan 7, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jamie Romak

Just wondering what people thought about him? His minor league #s look very good. Has very good power & bb%.

Does anyone know what the scouts say about him?

http://firstinning.com/players/Jamie-Romak-a/

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 6, 2008 8:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Romak

The jury is out. His walk rate is great, and he has plenty of power, but never hitting over .280 and striking out about 30% of the time makes me question his ability to hit at higher levels.

So lets say he has potential, but I need to see him perform at AA before I'm willing to say he's a legit prospect.

by B Agate on Jan 6, 2008 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Romak

He was the "toss-in" from the Braves in LaRoche/Gonzalez+Lillibridge deal, so the Pirates wanted him. His minor league numbers are solid, but he played last year in the Sally league and then A+ in his age 22 season. The shine comes off his numbers quite a bit when you take into account ARL (he signed out of HS). He might be useful at some point, but he's got to hold up against upper-level competition before he's considered a legit prospect. At least in my opinion. :-)

by mraver on Jan 6, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ARL & Canada

Well of course, we want to see how he does in AA before granting him prospecthood. He is Canadian, though, and I believe that Canadian prospects are supposed to take a little bit longer to develop just due to fewer months in which you can play ball and the lower level of skill.

Does anyone have an article about Canadian prospect ETAs?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 7, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pearce

What kind of playing time will Pearce get this year? Also, where will he be playing and hitting in the lineup?

by lenred on Jan 6, 2008 8:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PEarce

My question, too. Anybody care to venture a guess on how much (and how well) he plays in the bigs this year?

by jonk1982 on Jan 8, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

well, he's not going to displace laroche. looks like the bucs were trying him out in right field. that seems to be where he'll play. i'd bet that he gets about 450 AB unless he struggles early on.

by jpahk on Jan 8, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Main difference between Phil and Pitt

Is the GMs. Gillick will continue to gut that farm system while Huntington is coming into a system that badly needs work. We'll see the Pirates system improve before Philly's does.

As for McCutchen, undervaluing a speedy, potential power bat, that plays centerfield is irresponsible. The A- is a fine score for a projected good bat and good glove with good speed in a key defensive position.

by TIF on Jan 6, 2008 8:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I donno if a .258 average projects as good

by Bravesin07 on Jan 6, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In AA, at 20.

He's fine. His skillsets are what are projectable, not his results.

by TIF on Jan 6, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pearce

This years Josh Willingham award winner?

by bl on Jan 6, 2008 8:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good Question

But I'd guess Rasmus or LaPorta.

by Yakker on Jan 12, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get it

This may be my Met bias speaking, but I don't see how McCutchen is an A- when Fernando Martinez is only a B+, and Carlos Gomez is only a B. I think Gomez should be about equal to McCutchen. Martinez outperformed McCutchen in AA this year though, and he was 2 years younger.

by metsfan on Jan 6, 2008 10:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Comparing player A to player B

isn't a good idea. Players develop at different rates. Even if they're the same age, you have to take into account their skillsets and see if they're truly equal (or one is better) or not.

As for Martinez, maybe part of the concern is the overpush that he received by the Mets. Similar practice by the Mariners organization impacted our letter grades too (Triunfel especially). McCutchen is rushed, too, but with an extra two years of maturity. That can help a bit.

As for Gomez, I don't really know what to say about him. If I had more scouting data on Met prospects I could probably figure out why.

by TIF on Jan 6, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs