Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Jan 5, 2008 2:30 PM EST in News Comment 39 comments

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B
Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade B
Josh Outman, LHP, Grade B
Joe Savery, LHP, Grade B (I still worry about his health)
Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade C+ (injuries, command, and personality are huge questions)
Jason Donald, SS, Grade C+ (big time sleeper)
Greg Golson, OF, Grade C+ (tools out the wazoo but no polish)
Travis Blackley, LHP, Grade C+
J.A. Happ, LHP, Grade C+ (interchangeable with Blackley)
Lou Marson, C, Grade C+
Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Grade C+
Julian Sampson, RHP, Grade C+
Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade C+ (questionable bat for me)
Matt Spencer, OF, Grade C+
Andrew Carpenter, RHP, Grade C+
Jeremy Slayden, OF, Grade C (I like him a lot but old for a prospect)
Scott Mathieson, RHP, Grade C (would rank higher if health was sure)
Tyler Mach, 3B-2B, Grade C
Travis Mattair, 3B, Grade C
Dominic Brown, OF, Grade C (great tools, skills?)

Other grade C guys include Quintin Berry, Tyson Brummett, Chance Chapman, Freddy Galvis, Edgar Garcia, Brad Harman, Lincoln Holdzkom, Jason Jaramillo, Gus Milner, Carlos Monasteros, Javon Moran, D'Arby Myers, Matt Rizzotti, Brian Schlitter, and Michael Taylor.

The Phillies have an interesting mix. They have some polished guys without great tools, and they have some tools guys with no skills, but not many with both.

Again, don't get all pissy about exact placement on this list. The grades are more important than someone being ranked 15th instead of 13th.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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Pretty Mediocre

Farm system. Agree with the Carlos Carrasco grade as well.

by MHD on Jan 5, 2008 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mediocre?

Travis Blackley was picked up from the Giants in Rule 5. He wouldn't crack the Giants top 20. An organization that has him as the #8 prospect isn't mediocre, it's just plain bad.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 5, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

personally, i think john is working off an

outdated scouting report. that's not really an insult, though, as i feel that pat gillick has that same report.

blackley is not the same pitcher he was when he first hit AA. arm injuries have sapped him of his strength, and his control has also taken a significant step back.

at this point, i think he's a C-.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (gio, fautino, and el nino)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 5, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

the Phils system is probably one of the five worst. But I also think John is making a mistake ranking guys like Marson, Dominic Brown and even D'Arby Myers after some scrub like Blackley.

Marson is just a shade behind the Yankees' Frank Cervelli as a second (or third) tier catching prospect who still has a chance to be a half-way decent starter. He's apparently got strong skills behind the plate, strong leadership ability, and was a quarterback recruit coming out of high school until an injury swung him over to baseball. He's the sort of C+ prospect that could be an the verge of breaking out.

The real puzzling thing is to have Dominic Brown ranked at 20 in such a weak system; he's like the White Sox's Jose Martinez, a big, skinny guy you can project on quite a bit, and who also has shown some results as well. The BA scouting report says that scouts give Daryl Strawberry as a possible comp for him; I'm of course not saying that he's the next Strawberry, but if a young guy with tools galore, decent production in short season ball, and Daryl Strawberry as even a wet dream comp, then I'd go ahead and risk a C+ and/or top 10 ranking for him.

If I had to make a top 20 list of possible breakout 08 candidates in the C/C+ area that very few people seem to talk about, both Marson and Brown would be on that list.

That said, it's a pretty weak system. I just think John's (mis)ranking of guys makes it look weaker than it is.

by gogotabata on Jan 5, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Marson looks like he at least could be a decent back up and if lucky could be a starter.

still though, it doesn't change the fact that this system looks like garbage right now. but then again, hard to argue with the results over the last 5+ year or so.

by RollingWave on Jan 6, 2008 7:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brown

Just as a note. Brown was ranked #6 on BA's top 10 list. I actually like the disparity there, though. It shows, to me at least, that people think he could actually be a top-of-the-line talent (in the Phils' system) or a total bum.

Just makes it more interesting to see how he progresses, is what I'm trying to get across here.

by ajake57 on Jan 7, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Antonio Bastardo

He deserves to be in Drabeck's spot.

They're both C+ arms but Bastardo is a much cooler name!

by grover on Jan 5, 2008 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow I'm surprised

Edgar Garcia and Jaramillo are nothing better than C? Berry and Myers might be to early to tell so no problems there but was surprised by the Garcia's and Jaramillo's ranking.

by jfish26101 on Jan 5, 2008 2:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

John.....

How would you compare D'arby Myers and Matt Sulentic?

(Btw happy 40th)

by sagecoll on Jan 5, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd move Carrasco to a B+

but I understand I'm also higher on him than most.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 5, 2008 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Drabek

Never heard about his personality problem. What's with him?

by shakezula on Jan 5, 2008 4:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i imagine

it's the reference to his arrest for public drunkeness and his car crash and some other stuff. maturity issues generally.

by larry on Jan 5, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drabek

Those "maturity issues" were all before being drafted to the best of my knowledge. I've heard nothing but good things from a maturity standpoint since his Spring Training appearance where he got a wake up call from some of the veterans.

Jer 29:11

by BowmanChromeAddict on Jan 5, 2008 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From what I've heard

From people who went to school with him: he's a major head case and make-up is a big question mark for him to get to the majors.

Work ethic as well.

Physically he has all the tools.

by future on Jan 7, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jesus sanchez

what is your opinion of him? he was well-regarded a couple of years ago.

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias) "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve."--Napoleon Hall

by bobbymcnally on Jan 5, 2008 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

Mathiason was taken by the A's in the minor league rule 5

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 5, 2008 5:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i believe it was scott mitchinson that was

selected by the A's.

you're not the first to make this mistake.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (gio, fautino, and el nino)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 5, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

uh...

No.

That would be Mitchinson.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 5, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

aww jeez

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 5, 2008 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cj Henry

should I forget about him?

by daveh33 on Jan 5, 2008 6:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He is back on the Yankees I believe.

I think he quit baseball, was released and the Yankees resigned him. I think I'd forget about him though.

by jfish26101 on Jan 5, 2008 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

He's back with the Yankees but he did hit for a pretty empty .300 towards the end of the year after getting fitted for glasses, if that means anything. If he gets to AA itll be a shocker. He should have taken the BBall Scholly to Kansas.

by kennythered on Jan 6, 2008 2:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Top 20 Lists

I'm new to this site. What is the best way to access the Top 20 Lists that have been already been done.

by kenwarren on Jan 5, 2008 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

answer

On the menu at the top right of the page select search and use the team's name and "top 20".

by B Agate on Jan 5, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmmm

some quibbles

Savery to a B- until he actually pitches this year
Donald to a B-
Blackley to a C
Marson to a B-
D Brown to a C+/B-

Other than that, not bad.

by phuturephillies on Jan 5, 2008 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ehhh

I changed my mind. I really disagree with a lot of choices.

Galvis is already a plus defender at 17, and will play in the SAL at 18 next year. He's at least a C+ prospect at this point.
Blackley will never be more than a 4A pitcher, he shouldn't have been ranked.
Jaramillo will be a major leaguer, even if it's as a backup, and is a good defender, he should at least be a C+
Myers has more upside than almost anyone on this list. He was on fire last year until he broke his wrist, and that was against older competition in the NYPL.
Garcia was good in 2006 as an 18 year old in the NYPL, and he held his own in the SAL this year. People don't like his K rate, which I agree, but he still has plus control and good stuff. He's at least a C+

by phuturephillies on Jan 5, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't know Myers broke his wrist

Is that why he stopped hitting?

by Bravesin07 on Jan 5, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drabek undergraded at C+

I'm sure many will disagree with me, but despite the lost year for Drabek this year, he's still incredibly young, has an indisputable pedigree, was widely regarded as the top high school talent in the 06 draft. To me, that's worth a B-. I know you say not to quibble over the placement of prospects with the same grade, and if it were the difference of 13 to 15 I'd let it go, but with 11 C+ grades, I disagree with several of the rankings. I tend to value projection more than current stats, except in the case of Andrew Carpenter where I think his stats are undervalued by most. Anyway, here is my revised ranking of the C+ players on the list.
# Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade C+
# Jason Donald, SS, Grade C+
# Greg Golson, OF, Grade C+
# Lou Marson, C, Grade C+
# Andrew Carpenter, RHP, Grade C+
# Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Grade C+
# J.A. Happ, LHP, Grade C+
# Julian Sampson, RHP, Grade C+
# Scott Mathieson, RHP, Grade C
# Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade C+
# Matt Spencer, OF, Grade C+
# Travis Blackley, LHP, Grade C+

I also moved Mathieson into the mix here because I'm not as concerned about the injuries.

Jer 29:11

by BowmanChromeAddict on Jan 5, 2008 8:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rays

Has he done the Rays yet, and where can i see the 2007 rays top 20? i tried through the search but couldn't find it.

by websterjtc on Jan 5, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No he hasn't done them.

-ns

by jfish26101 on Jan 5, 2008 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

last years

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/12/29/12202/090

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Jan 5, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drabek

to me, is a B-.

I know thats prolly not worth TP, but had to put it out there.

I think his talent is an A-. Dock a grade for injuries, dock another for maturity, and drop another for command, and your still at a B-.

I dont know how bad his walk numbers were, but the only command issue Ive ever seen him have were command in the strike zone, but Ive never seen a high school kid light 92-96 AND control it in the strike zone.

by Roo on Jan 5, 2008 11:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

a note

The maturity issue hasn't been an issue really since his brief stint in rookie ball after being drafted. He got generally good reviews in instructs in Fall 2006, and had a good ST and stint at Lakewood before getting hurt. Everything about his mental perparation/makeup has been positive since.

He was ranked as the second best prep pitching prospect behind Kershaw in the 2006 draft, and would have gone in the first 2 rounds as a hitter had it not been for the off the field stuff. He's an A- talent. His pro sample is very small, he's still a long ways off, but his pure stuff is legit. I can understand being skeptical, but I'd give him a B- at this point and feel fine with it.

by phuturephillies on Jan 6, 2008 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then take it back up one

for being 19 and throwing mid 90's cheese.

by Roo on Jan 6, 2008 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blackley

Lots of resistance to Blackley getting the "+" here.

And, I admit to not having seen him since 2004(!) But....

My experience with his type of pitcher is that their prime is later than normal. He was 24 last year, and I view that as still being 5 years before the prime of a lefty finesse guy. On the pragmatic side, I don't know what that means to an organization, who only gets to control a player for his first 6 seasons... will a Travis Blackley be better than a 4-A starter before he's 27 or 28? Possibly not, even without the injury. Will he still be a "prospect" at age 26 (2 years from his 2007 season)? Probably not.

I'm not really a "fan" of his, nor do I have him on any fantasy/sim team. But I think now is the time to start thinking about stashing him away on a roster of one, if you have long-term keeper rules. A lot of the other "C+" guys on these lists have "middle reliever" as their upside, I think. With Blackley, I think you could see a couple years of "#3 starter"-level performance from him... but the wait may be longer than hoped.

by BobbyMac on Jan 6, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sampson

Is a guy I am very excited about due to his frame (I believe 6'6, 215) and reports about his smooth mechanics. I was pleasantly surprised to see the Phils made this pick in the 12th round. Of course he has yet to do any real pitching and could very possibly be awful, but I remain optimistic. I hope he gets to due some pitching in the NYPL this year and hopefully be in Lakewood in 2009.

Also I agree with the earlier post about Brown being graded a bit low as I see him being a solid C+ grade. I know he does not project as a CF since his body is likely to fill out, which would lower his value, but I think that his very solid numbers in the SS earn him some points. If Golson (God it's tough for me to even type that's guy's name without swearing) can warrant a C+, I see no reason Brown should not get the same.

The Phillies system is still below average but there are some guys (Brown, Myers, Sampson, Mattair) who could join the guys at the top of the list soon and give some depth to the system.

FJM, down in the trenches doing the Lord's work.

by zdavis2512 on Jan 7, 2008 5:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A's...

Do you think that Billy Beane would have traded Haren for "pick 6" of these guys?

by BobbyMac on Jan 7, 2008 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I, as a Ranger fan

would trade them Millwood for a package centered around Drabek, haha.

by Roo on Jan 7, 2008 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FABIO CASTRO

I know he already spent a year in the Bigs because of the Rule 5, but Fabio Castro is back in the minors and still a prospect. He dominated in Reading and walked a bit in Ottawa. Just wondering what people thought of him or had any insight in to where he fits into the Phillies plans for this year and the future.

by Sox Puppet on Jan 8, 2008 12:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs