Arizona Diamondbacks Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Jan 5, 2008 2:11 PM EST in News

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Jarrod Parker, RHP, Grade B+
Max Scherzer, RHP, Grade B+
Gerardo Parra, OF, Grade B
Billy Buckner, RHP, Grade B
Wes Roemer, RHP, Grade B
Brooks Brown, RHP, Grade B-
Esmerling Vasquez, RHP, Grade B-
Barry Enright, RHP, Grade B-
Juan Gutierrez, RHP, Grade C+
Emilio Bonifacio, INF, Grade C+
Hector Ambriz, RHP, Grade C+
Matt Torra, RHP, Grade C+ (look at his first half/second half splits)
Cyle Hankerd, OF, Grade C+
Ed Easley, C, Grade C+
Dan Stange, RHP, Grade C+
Jailen Peguero, RHP, Grade C
Matt Green, RHP, Grade C
Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Grade C (great tools but too raw to rank higher for me)
Leo Rosales, RHP, Grade C (personal favorite, relief sleeper for '08)
Sean Morgan, RHP, Grade C

Other Grade C guys include Tony Barnette, Javier Brito, Dallas Buck, Bryan Byrne, Wilkin Castillo, Pedro Ciriaco, Pete Clifford, Josh Collmenter, Clayton Conner, Jamie D'Antona, Evan Frey, Mark Hallberg, Brad Miller, Dan Perales, Connor Robertson, and Cesar Valdez.

The top of this system was lopped off by trades, but they have the ability to recharge quickly and some of these Grade C+ guys could end up being quite good.

Again, don't get all pissy about exact placement on this list. The grades are more important than someone being ranked 15th instead of 13th.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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Comments

Cyle Hankerd

Is too low

by Sabean2009 on Jan 5, 2008 2:00 PM EST 0 recs

Hankerd

I really liked him before this season. I thought he would hit a lot more than he did, especially in the California league. I am not ready to completely write him off, but after Jon Zeringue I am careful when judging D-Backs prospects.

by bl on Jan 5, 2008 2:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Drafted Well

I really like the way the DBacks draft.

by MHD on Jan 5, 2008 2:14 PM EST 0 recs

+1

Me too. I still can't believe Parker got to them. They have made many selections I have really like over the past few years. Brooks Brown and Dallas Buck were two of my favorite ones.

by bl on Jan 5, 2008 2:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Money

Being able to spend what the talent dictates helps. But they have also done a good job in not making any bad picks.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball

by bheikoop on Jan 5, 2008 3:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Being Able to Spend

It looks like the Diamonbacks just budget more for the draft relative to their overall expenditures. It's not like they are a big market team. They just spend in the draft like one. Put another way, they are smart.

by rwperu34 on Jan 5, 2008 7:06 PM EST up 0 recs

No no...

That wasn't my point.

I was just suggesting that it helps when you aren't limited.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball

by bheikoop on Jan 6, 2008 1:44 PM EST up 0 recs

Wow

I really dont like that Buckner trade for KC.

by alskor on Jan 5, 2008 2:14 PM EST 0 recs

Billy Buckner is a B

Trevor Cahill is a B-.

Interesting to see how John's deviations from the norm end up looking in 2-3 years.

by gogotabata on Jan 5, 2008 2:42 PM EST 0 recs

Juan Gutierrez

Anyone know anything about him? Came from the Astros, right? Will he start or be in the pen? Just looking for a little info on him. Thanks!

by Sox Puppet on Jan 5, 2008 4:01 PM EST 0 recs

Looks like

he gave up the jack in AAA Round Rock last year and walked a bit (3.63/9). 23 years old and did OK in 21 IP for Houston.

by Sox Puppet on Jan 5, 2008 4:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Brooks Brown

I am glad to see some love given to Brown...seems some other sites dont have him in there top 10. Does he start at AAA or return to AA? anyone see Brown or Esmerling Vasquez in Arizona this year ?

by NYSOX on Jan 5, 2008 6:03 PM EST 0 recs

brooks

He gave up only 4 homers in 146 1/3 IP among the CAL and SOU leagues. His K rate is very acceptable too, so the biggest issue with him is his walks. A sleeper in my book.

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 2:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Esmerling Vazquez

Personal favorite:)

by rwperu34 on Jan 5, 2008 7:08 PM EST 0 recs

I was in the stands

The night he tore his labrum diving for a bunt in his last game in the AZFL. That sucked. I really like him too, and had my eye on him quite a bit during the season, and liked what little I saw in the fall league. But that injury is probably going to set him back quite a bit. He's probably graded too high now because of it.

by shoewizard on Jan 5, 2008 9:06 PM EST up 0 recs

Missed that game . . .

but I saw several of his other AFL appearances. I was extremely impressed with Esmerling's pitches. They had a lot of movements. In several appearances, he was shattering bats of good AFL hitters in key situations.

Disappointed about the injury - I know that the D'back front office was really high on Vasquez - I think he was their organizations minor league pitcher of the year.

by gunkdog on Jan 6, 2008 12:07 AM EST up 0 recs

What is Navarro's Upside

Elite SS, I guess he is considered a great fielder right now.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 5, 2008 8:11 PM EST 0 recs

How far away is he?

I'm curious about him too.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 5, 2008 11:38 PM EST up 0 recs

A very long ways away

He just turned 18 years old.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 6, 2008 12:42 AM EST up 0 recs

navarro on ba's list

BA lists Navarro among the dbacks top 10 prospects (#9), even before the Dbacks traded CarGo, Anderson, Carter and Cunningham. That would make Navarro the biggest "discrepancy" b/w BA's and John's lists... and I can see a valid argument for either placement, depending on how much emphasis you place on tools and "what-ifs". I personally am ambivalent on him, and would probably place him in between--in the 10th-12th range.

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 2:01 PM EST up 0 recs

Sean Morgan

Perhaps (well almost certainly) this is because I went to Tulane, but I think Sean Morgan could be a solid sleeper prospect. He was considered a possible first rounder before his junior year, and though he lost his control late in the year, he continued to have an outstanding strikeout rate (more than 1 per inning in A- as well). He's a big guy who is a legit 6'2/6'3, has a decent fastball (around 90 mph) and a real sharp slider.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/sean-morgan.shtml

by greenwave07 on Jan 5, 2008 8:37 PM EST 0 recs

What a difference a year makes

8 of the top 9 D backs prospects are pitchers. Unfortunately no A's or A- in that crowd now. Dan Haren better deliver the goods.

The D backs need draft picks. It sure seems like the best route for this team is to just hold on to Hudson, Lyon, and Cruz for 2008 and let them all walk in free agency after the season and replace with what they have or trade as necessary. As of right now, they would all be type A's I believe. The picks they would get could help toward a system replenishment right around 2010-2011 when it will really be needed.

by shoewizard on Jan 5, 2008 9:11 PM EST 0 recs

Almost

Hudson & Cruz are type As but Lyon is a B. Mahalo

Matt

Hudson 80.357 A
Cruz 71.600 A
Lyon 65.618 B
David Weathers is the lowest A relief pitcher at 70.213

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 6, 2008 12:25 PM EST up 0 recs

you're missing shoewizard's point

he's saying that hudson, cruz and lyon could all be type a free agents after the 2008 season. hudson and cruz are type a players right now, and very likely will remain type a unless they fall flat on their faces. lyon was type b but very close to being type a; if he has another solid season in 2008, he'll very likely become type a free agent.

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 1:52 PM EST up 0 recs

No

I know exactly what he, you missed it. Here's the relevant clip from his post :

"As of right now, they would all be type A's I believe."

That can't be any more clear, can it? Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 6, 2008 5:14 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah, you are right

Thanks for the correction.

If Lyon gets the closers gig in 2008, then of course he probably ends up a type A.

In either case, two A's and a B, or if it becomes 3 A's, the D backs need the picks.

by shoewizard on Jan 6, 2008 8:42 PM EST up 0 recs

obviously...

...you don't know that shoewizard lives in the future (may 2009, to be precise). he knows things you don't...

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 10:01 PM EST up 0 recs

the future

" Unfortunately no A's or A- in that crowd now. Dan Haren better deliver the goods."

I feel pretty good about the Haren deal. You never know what "prospects" will do in the future.

"What a difference a year makes"

What a difference two years make. To illustrate my point, below is a link to the 2006 list and the debate about CJ vs. Loney. Right now, who would you rather have on your roster?

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/2/20/103838/668

by foulpole on Jan 6, 2008 10:06 PM EST up 0 recs

hi foulpole

I see you've found a new venue to continue your incessant CJ bashing. Carry on.

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 10:09 PM EST up 0 recs

I didn't have anything to say to

you. I was responding to shoe's post. But, it seems that you respond on behalf of shoe? ( see above where you tried to justify the free agent types ).

Anyway, two years ago you seemed to berate any post regarding an argument that Loney was equal to if not greater than CJ.

So, would you rather have Loney or CJ on your squad right now? How about two years from now?

FWIW, here's the link again.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/2/20/103838/668

by foulpole on Jan 8, 2008 4:17 AM EST up 0 recs

BTW,...

...here's a little bit of the text from that thread.

"I think Overbay is a decent comp for Jackson, I also think Dave Magadan is also.

by Johnny Ruin"

"jackson's comps
Fwiw, Jackson's PECOTA comp list includes David Ortiz and Gary Sheffield.

But I'm sure Jackson's Johnny Ruin comp list is much much better than PECOTA.
by levski"

I think that Johnny Ruin was a heck of a lot closer to the comps than you or PECOTA where.

by foulpole on Jan 8, 2008 4:37 AM EST up 0 recs

not that I care that much about what you say

but just to humor you for a sec

Jackson has consistently under-delivered on his talent and expectations during his first two years in the majors.

Loney has exceeded all projections in his first extended playing time in the majors... but as I pointed out, he's done so on the strength of .419 babip.

In case it wasn't obvious from my post, I still think Jackson will be the better hitter going forward, but accounting for defense/age, the two are probably equal bets.

The bigger point here is that two years ago you probably had no idea who James Loney is, and that you still don't know who James Loney is. Your post has nothing to do with Loney, it has everything to do with Jackson. As I wrote already, you've been trolling message boards for years talking crap about Jackson, and talking crap in general. Heck, you've been banned from boards for way too much crap in general.

Anyhow, carry on.

by levski on Jan 8, 2008 10:35 AM EST up 0 recs

.419 BABIP?

where are you getting this from?

you've quoted it twice, but everywhere i've checked i'm seeing .352. am i looking in the wrong place?

anyway, i'm sure this guy is an a-hole, so i won't bother you much. but don't kid yourself with the CJ-Loney comparison from this point forward.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 9, 2008 1:36 AM EST up 0 recs

ahhhh!!!!

figured it out!

you're confusing James Loney with Matt Kemp.

Matt Kemp's BABIP was indeed .419, and his production this past year is indeed unsustainable. hell of a raw athlete, and you have to love the results -- but yeah, don't expect it again unless he spent a lot of time in the batting cage over the off-season.

as for James Loney -- not so much.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 9, 2008 1:41 AM EST up 0 recs

loney's babip

Yes, you are correct. I was looking at Kemp's page. I had several players' pages from hardballtimes.com open up, and I copied the BABIP from Kemp's page. My apologies.

As you point out, Loney's babip was .350 according to hardballtimes.com. That makes him a more likely candidate than Kemp to come close to his 2007 performance in 2008.

by levski on Jan 9, 2008 11:04 AM EST up 0 recs

also

Kemp, Loney, what's the difference? Two young punks mouthing off at proven winners like Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez...

(I kid, I kid)

by levski on Jan 9, 2008 11:05 AM EST up 0 recs

i'd laugh....

...but it just makes me want to cry:

http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/894912.html

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 9, 2008 11:53 AM EST up 0 recs

make your judgement based

upon my posts. Not other peoples allegations and wild interpretation.

"anyway, i'm sure this guy is an a-hole,"

Compare and contrast the posts that I and others have made and ask your self a few questions.

a) Did I make any personal attacks against other posters?

b) Did I make a resonable statement regarding my posts?

c) Where my posts on topic?

d) Am I going to turn this site into a flame war?

I have not posted any vile remarks about anyone on this thread

"but don't kid yourself with the CJ-Loney comparison from this point forward."

This is a no brainer. I'd rather have Loney than CJ.

by foulpole on Jan 9, 2008 7:30 PM EST up 0 recs

loney's babip in 07

... was .419. maybe he can sustain .419 babip over a full season in 2008. in that case, he'll be a fiend. conor's babip was .292 in 07.

...also, fwiw, here are the chone projections for these two players for 2008

loney

574 pa, .284, .347, .431, 32 doubles, 13 home runs, 49 bb/83 k

jackson

501 pa, .287, .375, .465, 29 doubles, 15 home runs, 57 bb/56 k

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 10:20 PM EST up 0 recs

Holy random point batman !

I see you have not given up on your anti Conor Jackson Jihad. Talk about going out of your way to make a point that has nothing to do with the thread, just so you can continue your CJ hate wherever and whenever they let you post.

Carry on, indeed.

by shoewizard on Jan 7, 2008 1:33 AM EST up 0 recs

not so random

You wrote that "Dan Haren better deliver the goods." based upon the current "value" of the "prospects" that the D-Backs gave up for him.

I wrote that "I feel pretty good about the Haren deal. You never know what "prospects" will do in the future."

IMO, It's a crap shoot with "prospects".

You wrote "What a difference a year makes"

I wrote "What a difference two years make."

I supported my position regarding the uncertain nature of "prospects" by adding an example of how two "prospects" were rated two years ago.

These "prospects" were on a D-Backs thread. We are talikng about the D-Backs here, no?

Loney was in the "c" level and CJ was in the "A" level. There was a debate about both players rankings that showed many different opinions regarding their future.

I think that it's a pretty good example of how current rankings of prospects can not only differ but also be inacurate.

Prospects are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get.

Haren has proven that he is a very effective pitcher at the ML level.

Nice trade, IMO.

by foulpole on Jan 8, 2008 12:31 AM EST up 0 recs

pearls of wisdon

"I think that it's a pretty good example of how current rankings of prospects can not only differ but also be inacurate.

Prospects are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get. "

captain obvious in da house.

by levski on Jan 8, 2008 10:36 AM EST up 0 recs

Sounds very reasonable on the surface

You are preaching to the choir about Haren. I think he'll be fine. He's thrown 662 innings the last 3 years with a composite ERA of 3.64. For me, for the NEXT 3 years, anything over 600 innings and under 4 ERA would be a success, and I'd be happy with the results of the trade. I'm pretty confident he WILL achieve at least that level of success. But make no mistake, the D Backs gave up a lot of talent and value for him, and he needs to deliver the goods to make the trade work.

As far as dragging Conor Jackson into it, you and I both know what the dynamic is, so don't pretend. My point about what a difference a year makes was clearly in relation to the COMPOSITION of the top 10-20 lists. The D backs promoted most of their top hitting prospects, and traded a few others, and now their lists is made up primarily of pitchers. Thats clearly what I was talking about.

But somehow you found a way to inject your negativity and hatred of Conor Jackson into the discussion. Surprise surprise. After reading your hateful attacks and diatribes against Jackson for over 2 years now, don't expect anyone who actually knows who you are to believe you just happened upon that comparison as an example about the relative value of prospects or how perceptions of players change. You were just hatin on CJ again, like you always do. Don't quite know how expressing this hatred everywhere you go, albeit in subtle ways, enhances yours or anyone elses life. I guess you will just have to figure out what your motives are for yourself.

Feel free to keep stalking me around the internet and posting rebuttals to anything I post, as you have been lately. But this will be the last response you ever get from me here or anywhere else. Your game is played out.

by shoewizard on Jan 8, 2008 10:47 AM EST up 0 recs

Billy Buckner

Interesting that he still ranks fairly high-look forward to reading your commentary on him. He's shown some progress last year or 2 but I see his high end as a backend rotation guy. He didn't show a lot in MLB chances last year. The fact that the pitching starved Royals traded him suggests to me that they see more upside with Calyspro than him. Keep up the good work.

by ribman on Jan 6, 2008 7:36 PM EST 0 recs

Bizarre concentration of righties here

...yet they traded 3 lefties and no righties to the A's for Haren.

Seems like it might have been worth giving away a little extra talent to keep a top-quality lefty arm in the system, but what do I know.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2008 8:26 PM EST 0 recs

a question...

... would you give up Jarrod Parker or Max Scherzer to keep Brett Anderson? (forget for a minute that the Dbacks couldn't easily trade either one of them). i wouldn't. and Anderson is the only lefty who's really worth keeping of the three, given AZ's situation at the major league rotation.

by levski on Jan 6, 2008 10:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Dallas Buck

Here's hoping that his TJ rehab goes well, loved this guy. If his stuff recovers to what it was a couple of years ago he could be one hell of a sleeper. If it doesn't, you've still got a pretty intriguing pitcher who could slot in at the back of a rotation.

by mrkupe on Jan 7, 2008 5:03 PM EST 0 recs

Buck

I agree about Buck..I was really following him as a solid sleeper. Sounds to me like it was inevitable he would undergo TJ. Anyone know when he had his surgery, what the time table is?

by NYSOX on Jan 8, 2008 8:38 AM EST up 0 recs