2007 Top 50 Hitters in Review

by John Sickels on Jan 13, 2008 2:13 PM EST in News Comment 37 comments

Here is a review of the 2007 Top 50 Hitters list. I review the previous year's list each season in the book, to hold myself accountable.

Top 50 Hitting Prospects for 2007 List in Review

1) Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Hit .247/.314/.411 with 15 homers and 14 steals for the Royals. I still believe in him and I don't think there is anything wrong with Gordon that more experience won't cure.

2) Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Hit .288/.316/.408 with 13 homers and 10 steals for the Devil Rays. I still believe in him and I don't think there is anything wrong with Young that more experience won't cure. Traded to Minnesota, as a Twins fan it will be fun to watch him develop.

3) Brandon Wood, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Hit .272/.338/.497 with 23 homers for Triple-A Salt Lake, just .152/.152/.273 in 13 games for the Angels. Wood's stock has slipped a bit, due to problems with excessive strikeouts, but he's still a very good prospect.

4) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
Hit .291/.359/.479 with 24 homers and fine defense, helped lead Colorado to the World Series.

5) Andy LaRoche, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hit .309/.399/.589 for Triple-A Las Vegas, .226/.365/.312 in 35 games for the Dodgers. Played through injuries and had a fine minor league year. Still a top prospect.

6) Ryan Braun, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Hit .324/.370/.634 for in 113 games for the Brewers, winning National League Rookie of the Year.

7) Billy Butler, OF, Kansas City Royals
Promoted to the majors ahead of schedule, hit .292/.347/.447 in 92 games for the Royals. Not much of a fielder but a great bat.

8) Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Hit .237/.295/.467 with 32 homers, 27 steals for the Diamondbacks. Impressive power/speed combination, batting average should gradually rise.

9) Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Monster season at three levels, finishing with a .305/.358/.567 mark in 50 games of Triple-A. An outstanding prospect.

10) Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Slaughtered Class A and Double-A pitching, but was overmatched in the majors. Given his age (19) this is not a problem. Should be a superstar with maturity.

11) Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros
Hit .322/.360/.539 in 108 games for the Astros, setting himself up as the future franchise cornerstone.

12) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Very slow start in Double-A, got hot later and finished with .258/.327/.383 mark with 17 steals. Marquis Grissom comparisons still stand given his age.

13) Reid Brignac, SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Hit .260/.328/.433 with 17 homers in Double-A. A bit disappointing, but at age 21 it wasn't a bad year. Also stole 15 bases.

14) Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Hit .307/.403/.528 in Double-A, .269/.398/.490 in Triple-A. Another excellent prospect.

15) Adam Lind, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Very disappointing season, hit just .238/.278/.400 in Blue Jays action. He will get more chances and I still believe in his long-term ability to be a very good major league hitter.

16) Cameron Maybin, OF, Detroit Tigers
Hit .304/.393/.486 in Double-A with 25 steals in just 83 games at that level. Traded to Florida, where he might be rushed. Still great in the long run.

17) Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
Hit .271/.336/.377 in 60 games in Double-A. Plagued with injuries and was extremely young for the level. Still a great prospect but exact shape of his future is unclear.

18) Jose Tabata, OF, New York Yankees
Hit .307/.371/.392 with 15 steals in 103 games for Class A Tampa. Power hasn't developed yet, but other skills are coming along nicely.

19) James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hit .331/.381/.538 in 96 games for the Dodgers. Hard to beat those numbers.

20) Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Hit .313/.377/.525 for Class A Lansing. Had a great year in the difficult-for-hitters Midwest League.

21) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox
Hit .298/.360/.370 with 33 steals in Triple-A, then .353/.394/.509 with nine steals in 33 games for the Red Sox. Rookie of the Year candidate for '08.

22) Felix Pie, OF, Chicago Cubs
Hit .215/.271/.333 in 87 games for the Cubs, held back by poor plate discipline. Still a good long-term property.

23) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Hit .286/.330/.476 for Double-A Mobile. Traded to Oakland, still a very fine prospect.

24) Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Heir apparent to Jim Edmonds, hit .275/.381/.551 with 29 homers, 18 steals, 70 walks for Double-A Springfield. Multi-skilled player who does everything except for hit for a high average, and that may come eventually.

25) Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado Rockies
Huge disappointment, hit .218/.330/.350 in 67 games for the Rockies. Will get more chances but I think I overrated him.

26) Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Hit .304/.379/.478 with 15 homers for Triple-A Colorado Springs. Has settled in as a solid prospect but not a spectacular one.

27) Elvis Andrus, SS, Atlanta Braves
Traded to Texas. Hit .244/.330/.335 before the trade, .300/.369/.373 afterward. Great speed, good glove, offense still developing. Stole 40 bases.

28) Adam Jones, OF, Seattle Mariners
Hit .314/.382/.586 with 25 homers in Triple-A. Still adjusting to the majors, but in the medium and long runs he will have a very good career.

29) Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
Hit .224/.292/.397 with 10 homers in 84 games for Arizona. Capable of better if healthy.

30) Eric Campbell, 3B-2B, Atlanta Braves
Limited to 81 games by injuries, hit just .221/.312/.406 for Class A Myrtle Beach. Also suspended for insubordination. A lost season but young enough to recover.

31) Bill Rowell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Hit .273/.335/.426 in 91 games for Class A Delmarva at age 18, holding his own at a very young age.

32) Brian Barton, OF, Cleveland Indians
Hit .314/.416/.440 with 20 steals in 106 games for Double-A Akron. Power production fell off, and he's an older prospect at age 25, but still intriguing.

33) Travis Buck, OF, Oakland Athletics
Limited by injuries to 82 games for Oakland, but hit .288/.377/.474. Very good major league debut.

34) Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Atlanta Braves
Hit .266/.310/.422 in 93 games between the Braves and Rangers, a nice major league debut after a weak 2006 season. Should continue to improve.

35) Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
Hit .294/.381/.476 in Triple-A, then .321/.360/.548 in 24 games for the Reds. Rookie of the Year candidate.

36) Eric Patterson, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Hit .297/.362/.455 with 24 steals for Triple-A Iowa. Now an outfielder, where the pressure on his bat will increase.

37) Sean Rodriguez, SS-2B, Los Angeles Angels
Hit .254/.345.423 for Double-A Arkansas, with 17 homers and 15 steals. I overrated him, but he is a decent prospect with an intriguing skill mix.

38) Chris Parmelee, OF, Minnesota Twins
Hit .239/.313/.414 with 15 homers for Class A Beloit. Problems with a high strikeout rate reduced his production.

39) Chris Marrero, OF, Washington Nationals
Hit .293/.337/.545 for Class A Hagerstown, then .259/.338/.431 for Class A Potomac, combining for 23 homers. Now a first baseman, but should hit enough for the position.

40) Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego Padres
Hit .275/.329/.457 with 18 homers for the Padres. A solid hitter who should improve further.

41) Carlos Gomez, OF, New York Mets
Hit .232/.288/.304 with 12 steals in 58 games for the Mets, rushed to the majors to cover injuries. Wsa overmatched, but still very young.

42) Elijah Dukes, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Hit .190/.318/.391 with 10 homers in 52 games for the Devil Rays. He would be a good player, IF he can keep his emotions under control, which is an IF the size of Jupiter.

43) Josh Fields, 3B-OF, Chicago White Sox
Hit .244/.308/.480 with 23 homers for the White Sox. Contact issues will impact his batting average but power will get stronger.

44) Ryan Sweeney, OF, Chicago White Sox
Hit .270/.348/.398 with 10 homers for Triple-A Charlotte. His status is fading in my mind, although he is still young enough to improve I doubt the power is going to develop further.

45) Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics
Hit .293/.389/.438 for Triple-A Sacramento, then .347 in 18 games for the Athletics. Batting average and OBP are his strengths, home run power is still an issue.

46) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
American League ROY, hit .317/.380/.442. Should just get better.

47) Nolan Reimold, OF, Baltiimore Orioles
Limited to 50 games in Double-A by injuries, hit .306/.365/.565. Needs a full year of health to consolidate progress.

48) Jeff Clement, C, Seattle Mariners
Hit .275/.370/.497 in 125 games for Triple-A Tacoma. Power stands out, also improved his defense.

49) Brad Snyder, OF, Cleveland Indians
Hit .263/.355/.448 in Triple-A, but limited to 86 games by injuries. Getting old for a prospect now, needs to break through in '08.

50) Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hit 40 doubles and 14 homers between Double-A and Triple-A, batting .325 combined. Adding offense to his excellent glove in a breakthrough season.

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Comments

Nice

That's actually a pretty strong showing. There may not be any misses at all until Lind at 15, and he could still easily turn it around.

Also, don't forget what Pie did in AAA last year - if he doesn't get yanked around in the majors at all last year, he'd be a top-10 this year, easily.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 13, 2008 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pedroia

Much as I love the kid (and I think he's fantastic) I don't see a ton of room for improvement aside from his godawful April and maybe a little bit more pop.
That said .317/.380/.442 doesn't need much improving...

This is me being polite.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 13, 2008 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

On Rasmus

I hope you do know that he was sick for over a month and lost 10 pounds. He said swinging a bat was like a sledgehammer. Take June and July out and your looking at a better prospect than Jay Bruce.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 13, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Better than Bruce

now that's a reach. I would say a notch lower than Bruce, not on par with him.

The Reds are finally making a move!

by Rupe34 on Jan 13, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Easily

On par with Bruce, if not even better. Bruce will get eaten alive at the Major League level unless he cuts down on his strikeouts and improves his pitch selection. Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 13, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ranking

I'm curious on how is the ranking based on

by shakezula on Jan 13, 2008 4:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sweeney

Didn't Sweeney get traded to the A's? I think everyone thought he was going to hit for more power when he was drafted.

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Jan 13, 2008 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

old list

As stated, this is the list from LAST YEAR.

by John Sickels on Jan 13, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, I get that...

"Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Hit .286/.330/.476 for Double-A Mobile. Traded to Oakland, still a very fine prospect."

You talked about Gonzalez getting traded to the A's this offseason, but in Sweeney review you didn't mention his trade. I was just wondering if this was by choice or you forgot.

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Jan 13, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

list

Because I wrote it before the Sweeney trade. It's locked into the book now, too late to change.

by John Sickels on Jan 13, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good to know...

Thanks for the info John, I can't wait for the new book to come out and for the new top 50's.

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Jan 13, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great projections long term John

Only big mistake I see is Ianetta, and I thought the Coors effect would have caused him to be a top 10 catcher last year

by dlpme77 on Jan 13, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Iannetta

Iannetta will be fine. He, like Alex Gordon, started out very cold in April. The Royals let Gordon play through it. The Rockies didn't do the same for Iannetta.

Despite not having a lot of chances to dig his way out of his slump, he did end up with a 680 OPS, which isn't too bad, considering his poor start. His OPS was 723 after April and 764 after the All-Star Break.

I still have complete faith that he will be an above average starting MLB catcher.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 14, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

me too

by Sox Puppet on Jan 14, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Schafer

Minor League leader in hits didn't make the top 50 hitter?

by Jay212033 on Jan 13, 2008 8:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The density

amazes me.

by gogotabata on Jan 13, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it probably shouldn't, though

all things considered.

by larry on Jan 13, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PRESEASON list

This was a PRE-SEASON 2007 list.

by John Sickels on Jan 13, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybin and Pedrioa

Hmmm I'm pretty sure Maybin spent the majority of his season in A+ instead of AA.

On Pedroia. his Home/away split was pretty extreme. he was very mediocare outside of Fenway (282 /.349 /.380 ) which is probably the biggest cause of worry. then again maybe he's simply a guy that can take advantage of Fenway like nobody's busniess. but that road number still gives me pause, if i see extreme home /away split i rather see the kid do better on the road..

I think he's probably a liter / slower version of Craig Biggio . I have a hard time seeing him hitting 20 dinger a year and obviously he's not going to have a 400 SB career. but the rest of their game seems almost identical.

by RollingWave on Jan 14, 2008 4:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

No Way in Hell

A slower Craig Biggio? You realize that Biggio was the second best player of the 90s right? Pedroia is probably an average second basemen, which isn't a bad thing. He has a very long swing with slow hands that should be exploited this upcomming season.

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 14, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

By what ranking....

was Biggio the 2nd best player in the 90s? Really curious about that.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 14, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Biggio

really? The only player better than him in the 90's was Bonds?

by Tyler on Jan 14, 2008 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

Frank Thomas.

by Yakker on Jan 15, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Griffey?

A-Rod??? Canseco??? Bagwell??? I mean, it's possible Biggio was only the 2nd best player on his team in the 90s... I don't see any metric that would have him as the 2nd best player in the 90s.

Maybe the poster meant 2nd best 2B? Or maybe he is using hits in the 90s? Not sure how many Biggio had, but could that be the case? If it is, then Mark Grace was the best player in the 90s... and if we are doing that, Jack Morris was the best pitcher in the 80s since he had more wins than anyone else.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 15, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's quoting Bill James

who, incidentally, insists Biggio was the best player of the '90s up until '97 or something around there, at which point Bonds surpassed him.

i haven't read it for a while, but, as i remember, a lot of it was tied to some of his normally "hidden" value, like how rarely he hit into double plays, and how many HBPs he got, tied with his positional scarcity and otherwise stellar stats.

personally, i have a lot of trouble swallowing the statement as well. but i wanted to clarify what the poster was alluding to.

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 15, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rod...

A-Rod? Love the guy but hard to be one of the best players of a decade while starting only half way through it. I'll address A-Rod, Canseco, and Bagwell later.

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 15, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thomas?

You realize Thomas actually COST (over a replacement his team runs on defense right?

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 15, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I said...

Slower AND lighter... Craig Biggio minus about 10 HR per year and the SBs.. that's A LOT. and that's what Pedroia is.

I think he is just a slightly above average 2B too, but Fenway will make him a bit more valuable than most guys that fall into this catagory... as will his on base abilities.

by RollingWave on Jan 14, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Slower...

Part of Biggio's skill was he was able to GIDP very few times. Perhaps that's a problem with Pedroia in the future.

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 15, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tabata

I hadn't noticed that Tabatas still undeveloped power still led to a better slugging percentage than Ellsbury.

Ellsbury is more proven but how good is it that a player is more proven to have no power potential?

by emac2 on Jan 14, 2008 10:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

They dont compare

Ellsbury is a plus plus defender in CF with leadoff skills and plus speed. Tabata is a surefire very good defensive RF whose value is tied much more heavily into the power in his bat. Put ellsbury in RF with good but not great defense and cut him down to 10-15 steals and He's nowhere near a top 50 hitter list.

by jspearlj1 on Jan 14, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take the guy with power

Ellsbury is not a plus plus defender in center, he simply does not have the arm to play plus plus defense. Tabata's hand drained his power, Ellsbury has anemic power but not the average/OBP to make up for it. However, Ellsbury is ready now, I usually like guys with higher ceilings though...so I'll take Tabata.

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 14, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Arm in CF is overrated....

It's a nice thing to have but it has a fairly low effect on run prevention in CF. He's not only got great speed but impecible ability to read balls. Based on pretty much every scouting report since Ellsbury has gone pro has shown that he's considered by every scout to be one of the best defensive CF prospects in a long while... that sounds plus plus to me.

Ellsbury's job is to leadoff and he has the upside to be one of the best in the game. Of course he has anemic power, but its not as if he is a punch and judy type and that's all he'll ever be. You also do realize that Tabata's Iso was 83 last year right? Between AA, AAA and MLB Ellsbury did better than that, so who is anemic again? Not saying he's got more power, but I fail to see how anybody can rationally take Tabata ahead of Ellsbury right now.

by jspearlj1 on Jan 15, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was talking upside...

Right Now? I'm sorry, I was saying over ten years or so...I like the ceiling guys anyways (e.g. I'm a bit pissed about Angel's ranking on the Giants list). Tabata's power was drained by his hand injury. Arm in CF is overrated? Perhaps a bit, it's the ability to cut off the ball, however it helps an awful lot. I've seen great arms make average defeners good too great defenders. I'm sorry when I hear "plus plus" defense in center I think Andruw Jones in 95, perhaps even Granderson, or guys like that. The "total package" in center field.

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 15, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Andrew in 95

was one of the best defensive CF ever, needless to say, that's being pretty choosey. I guess when I hear plus plus defense I believe that means that a guy is likely to be a top 3-5 defender in the majors over a 5-7 year span which I think most scouts would see in Ellsbury.

by jspearlj1 on Jan 15, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Over the Next few Years

John, out of Maybin, Bruce, Upton, Longoria, and Rasmus what order would you rank these players in terms of value you expect them to deliver to a franchise in the next ten years?

by ChrisLDuncan on Jan 14, 2008 12:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

me

Rasmus-Think this guy will a star, remember being a Cardinals centerfielder is good karma.
Bruce-He will be a multiple all star with some big seasons.
Longoria-Will be between Zimmerman and Wright which is pretty good.
Upton-Something strikes me with him as one who will underachieve below his actual talents. Think of him as Andruw Jones w/o the gold gloves.
V
V
V
V
Maybin-I see Corey Patterson Jr. here with a few more walks.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 14, 2008 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs