St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Jan 11, 2008 4:14 PM EST in News Comment 36 comments

All grades are extremely preliminary and subject to change.

Colby Rasmus, OF, Grade A
Chris Perez, RHP, Grade B
Jaime Garcia, LHP, Grade B
Adam Ottavino, RHP, Grade B
Bryan Anderson, C, Grade B-
Tyler Herron, RHP, Grade B-
Clayton Mortensen, RHP, Grade B-
Pete Kozma, SS, Grade B-
Jess Todd, RHP, Grade B-
Allen Craig, 3B, Grade B- (judgment call on a personal favorite)
P.J. Walters, RHP, Grade B- (judgment call on a personal favorite)
Jose Martinez, SS, Grade B- (an intriguing overlooked prospect)
Mitchell Boggs, RHP, Grade C+ (I know he has a good arm but he strikes me as overrated by other experts for some reason)
Jon Jay, OF, Grade C+ (I think he will rebound)
Brian Barton, OF, Grade C+
Joe Mather, OF, Grade C+
David Freese, 3B, Grade C+
Cody Haerther, OF, Grade C+
David Kopp, RHP, Grade C+
Steven Hill, C-INF, Grade C+

Others include Luis De La Cruz, Dan Descalso, Nick Derba, Thomas Eager, Brad Furnish, Tyler Greene, Luke Gregerson, Tyler Henley, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Deryik Hooker, D'Marcus Ingram, Ken Maiques, Jason Motte, Tyler Norrick, Nick Stavinoha, Mark Worrell, and Brett Zawacki.

This is an underrated farm system that deserves more attention. Some of these ratings are rather different than in you will find from other sources, but I'm making some judgment calls here.

As usual, grades are more important than exact placement. Full reports on all these players and on over 1,000 others can be found in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, which can be ordered only through JohnSickels.net.

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I'm impressed

with how far this system has progressed in the last 3 years; from being nearly destitute to where it is now. I really like Motte and Hoffpauir, think they're top 20 guys, but I can't argue with them not being.

by ajake57 on Jan 11, 2008 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

looks good

its a solid improvement. i'd like it a lot better with porcello instead of kozma. i hope the cardinals finally wise up and start spending some more cash on the draft and international signings. handing out $3-$7MM to a draft pick doesnt seem that bad considering cesar izturis is getting $3MM and jimmy edmonds is getting paid $2MM to play for a different team.

any other kenny maiques fans out there?

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Kenny-Maiques.shtml

by dmb60614 on Jan 11, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brian Anderson?

Just curious as to why the lack of love?

And that system sure knows how to produce catchers...

by GuyinNY on Jan 11, 2008 4:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Response

B- sounds very appropriate, IMO.

by mrkupe on Jan 11, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

B

I would argue for a straight B. The guy put up solid numbers in AA at the age of 20, and is really one of the top five or so catching prospects.

by drob320 on Jan 11, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

cool.

i'm surprised by hill and kopp making the list, but i understand john got to see hill firsthand so i'm a little more intrigued. i like craig in the top ten, he doesn't have a lot of big believers but the power numbers he put up in the FSL are hard to overlook.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 11, 2008 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't see how

Kozma is a B- and Cumberland isn't even in the Padres' top 20

by playingwithfire on Jan 11, 2008 4:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would rank...

Cumberland higher (C+/B-), but I think Kozma's grade is reasonable.

by drob320 on Jan 11, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Herron

I love Herron and I think that's a very appropriate grade for him. I think he's a potential helium guy who could put together a nice season and put himself into the bottom of the top-100 by this time next year.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 11, 2008 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Freese and Barton

John I know you don't normally respond in the threads, but maybe I'll get lucky.
Where would you have ranked Barton in the Cleveland system and Freese in the Padres system?

Also, the Cardinals look to have a Top 15 system according to John. Maybe 14 or 15.

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 11, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

freese

he already made the san diego list and freese was in the "other C+ guys" section just outside the top 20.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 11, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Few

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 11, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

craig

i think its about time somebody put allen craig in the top 10 b/c he is one of the best pure hitters in the system, and i am also happy to see jess todd get some credit for what he has done over the last year.

i think it is pretty amazing that there are only 2 players on the list that were acquired before jeff luhnow took over, and they barely make the list at 16 and 18.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 11, 2008 4:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Allen Craig is a recent favorite of mine. I stumbled onto him when running through the CHONE 2008 hitter projections. Here are the top 15 2008 23 year olds in terms of projected MLB offensive value (not adjusted for home park):

Ryan Zimmerman
Troy Tulowitzki
BJ Upton
Matt Kemp
Ian Stewart
Lastings Milledge
Felix Pie
Melky Cabrera
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Allen Craig
Matt LaPorta
Wladimir Balentein
Tony Abreu
Daniel Dorn
Jeffrey Rea

That made me take a second look at him, and, so far, I really like what I see.

by gogotabata on Jan 11, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your list

What is the criteria for your list?

Age 23 only?

Or 23 and under?

The former I presume.

Tell me about Rea and Dorn as I am not familiar with either of them

Thanks

Fat man, is no more Hinges burst off Heaven's Door Come on in, says Bill

by KABOOM on Jan 11, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not "my" list

But the statistical output of this one guy's projection system for 2008; I simply sorted the data in terms of age and like OPS or whatever, and these were the top 15 guys that came up.

by gogotabata on Jan 11, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not sure

I don't think I understand this list very well. Does it mean to say that Ian Stewart, Melky Cabrera, & Allen Craig are all better hitters/prospects than LaPorta? Guess I am not all that familiar with CHONE projections.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Jan 11, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not sure either

i don't really know what they mean, but i think it means how valuable they would be in the major leagues next year. i don't think it is saying craig is a better prospect than laporta, but if they both went straight to the majors this year it thinks craig would have a better season.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 12, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It is

a purely statistical projection for 08, of how players would do in their home parks. Apparently, he just ran everyone who played full season ball in the minors (or the majors) through his algorithms. I think he's uses the last three or four seasons when available.

It's like a slightly less nuanced version of ZIPS, but it was just the first 08 projections I could find in spreadsheet form. I've found it useful for finding overlooked players like Craig or Rea.

by gogotabata on Jan 12, 2008 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think its a MLB projection

So because of playing time at the MLB level, they will have better production.

by jahs34 on Jan 12, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good list,

except, IMO, why Kozma so high (he was overdrafted!) and anderson so low (in terms of grades)

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias) "Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve."--Napoleon Hall

by bobbymcnally on Jan 11, 2008 6:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

overdrafted

why is kozma considered an overdraft? baseball america had him going 15th overall in their draft morning mock, and i have had read the blue jays considered him at 16.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 11, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ottavino

much as I hate to say it (as a Cards fan), I think the B grade is a tad aggressive. His stuff doesn't seem quite good enough to overcome shaky command, so until he drops that walk rate and/or his hit rate, he's more of a B- to me. I think the grades for Mortensen and Herron are accurate, and I think Ottavino is not meaningfully ahead of them.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 11, 2008 8:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ottavino

He certainly has the potential to be a #2 starter if he figures out a few things, namely command and refining either his change or curveball.

He sat between 92-95 this season and touched 98 on many occasions. His fastball command got him into trouble more than anything so thats the big worry about him.
His slider is a plus pitch more times than it isn't and he said his changeup had improved 100% from where it was last year, but those are his words. Still thats good to hear.

If he can't make it as a starter, you're looking at one helluva closer. He could throwing 95-97 with a plus slider and maybe a change and a curve for one inning. This is why I have always put Ottavino ahead of Perez in my rankings but it really doesn't matter since they are both B guys.

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 11, 2008 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hill

How do you justify ranking Steven Hill over Mark Hamilton?

by fpslackers on Jan 11, 2008 9:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hill

I've seen both of them and I think Hill has more bat speed than Hamilton.

by John Sickels on Jan 13, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

makes you wonder

I still am ticked that Eckstein was not offered arbitration. That extra pick would have helped...maybe 3 picks in the top 50 or so instead of just two.

by acr on Jan 11, 2008 10:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

comp pick

there would have been no comp pick for eckstein, if we offered him arbitration he would have accepted.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 11, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Was encouraging to see Mo get that right.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 11, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right...

...and now we have Cesar Izturis. Thanks Mo!

by acr on Jan 11, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Possibly

He was talking to several clubs so he may not have accepted. But if he had accepted what is the worst that would have happened? We would have gotten a cheap lead-off hitter and starting shortstop for one more year. Right now both those jobs are up in the air. Plus if the Cards were bound and determined to get rid of Eck they could have flipped him to someone for a prospect- even a low level one. At least that would have been something.

by acr on Jan 11, 2008 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus

Its going to be something when he and Pujols are teamed together in the bigs. What do we think, September call up in 2008 and a full time gig by All Star break 2009?

It would have been nice to see the Cards unload Rolen's contract and then be able to make a couple big free agent moves in 2009.

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by bheikoop on Jan 12, 2008 12:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

timeline

they have said he has an opportunity to make the team out of spring training, but i don't know if that is really the case. i would look for something along the hunter pence path, go to AAA for a couple of months and come up around memorial day.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 12, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Better System

Who has the better farm system: St. Louis or Baltimore?

They are somewhat identical at the top. One really good prospect(Rasmus-Wieters), a good lefty starter(Garcia-Patton), a good righty starter with command problems(Ottavino-Liz), a lefty hitter(Anderson-Rowell). Then there's Chris Perez and Nolan Reimold rounding out each's top 5.

I think the Cardinals have better depth, but just wanted to get others opinions.

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 13, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Does anyone have link for last years Cards list?

Also, does Josh Wilson having injury problems keep him off that list? He was pretty good out of the draft in rookie ball, but think he struggled with an early arm injury last year. Regardless I think he has gotta be one of the top 25 prosepcts.

Also what has happend to Mark McCormick?

by Roo on Jan 13, 2008 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs