Thoughts on Ian Kennedy

by John Sickels on Sep 5, 2007 12:49 PM EDT in News

Here is what I wrote about Ian Kennedy in the book.

Obviously it has been an outstanding season for Kennedy: 12-3, 1.91 with a 163/50 K/BB in 146 innings in the minors, with jsut 91 hits allowed. He was overshadowed by Clay Buchholz's no hitter last week, but his first major league start went well too: seven innings, five hits, three runs but just one earned, six strikeouts, two walks.

Kennedy has the zip back on his pitches after his erratic 2006 season and appears fully healthy. Although he's not an extremely hard thrower, his numbers are those of a power pitcher because he changes speeds so well. Ideally I'd like to see him get more Triple-A time, but I say that about everyone. If he pitches like this the rest of September, he'll have a clear shot at the rotation next spring, and as long as he remains healthy I think he will do well.

I expect Kennedy will be an above-average major league pitcher, with flashes of dominance. The question for me is health and durability and how long he lasts at his peak. With the Yankees he should have plenty of support from his teammates.

What are your thoughts?

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General Impressions

For a guy who is consistently tagged as throwing "high 80s" (Note: I'm glad John didn't do this), I found it pleasing that Kennedy's avereage fastball velocity on Saturday was 90.5. He never went above 92, but about 80-85% of his fastballs were in the 90-92 range. Great velocity? No. However, it's better than you would think he had based on some of the reports out there.

The other nice thing was that Kennedy's velocity was consistent throughout the game, the only dip occurred in the middle innings following his 30+ pitch 2nd. However, in the 6th and 7th he was still regularly getting 91 and 92.

Kennedy also had a pretty good change and the rest of his secondary arsenal was/is workable, as long as he keeps it down. He struggled with that at time against the Rays, but, for the most part, got away with it.

John, what gives rise to your health/durability concerns?

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Sep 5, 2007 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

healthy

the mysterious decline in his stuff in 2006. It was across the board, all of his pitches got worse. That strikes me as a caution flag....something wasn't right with him last spring. It went away this year, but it makes me worry that he could fade again since it happened once.

by John Sickels on Sep 5, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually...

The first pitch he threw that day was a 97 mph fastball. Of course that was taken for a ball and he most likely worked off of the adrenaline. Still, I see him being at worst a number 4 starter in our rotation behind Wang, Hughes and Chamberlain. Also, I have faith that next year though Hughes will be back to normal, getting back into the mid 90's and locating his change and curve, and probably beginning to use his slider more often. Its just ridiculous how fast these pitchers have progressed, which makes me think of several years of dominance in the "new" Yankee stadium.

by T for Jose Tabatha on Sep 5, 2007 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

97?

No, Kennedy's first pitch was a 92 MPH fastball that broke two inches. I'm not sure where you're getting the 97 from, you may want to check Advanced Gameday.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Sep 5, 2007 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

I was at the stadium that day, and his first pitch was clocked in as a 97 moh fastball. It was maybe because they hadn't gotten it set or something, but soon after that pitch he began hitting his fastball in the 91-92 range, occasionally hitting 93

by T for Jose Tabatha on Sep 5, 2007 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

stadium gun

Doesn't pass the smell test or the empirical data test.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Sep 5, 2007 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

not real

They asked Kennedy about it after the game and even he was a little shocked. There probably was a little adrenaline behind it so it could have been a bit faster then his other pitches but most likely the gun hadn't been calibrated yet

by Kanst42 on Sep 6, 2007 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I also heard

that he doesn't adjust well from the stretch, like top prospect Phil Hughes, because he's not used to having people on base when in the big leagues he will have men on base

--http://yankeesfuture.blogspot.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Sep 5, 2007 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

what separates kennedy...

from other similar type pitcherswithout the overpowering fastball like a Slowey, Sonnastine, Inman, Laffey, etc? but they get the job done.

also does 07 draft version of kennedy = James Simmons. how do they compare when geting drafted?

by rayver723 on Sep 5, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions

2008

should make for an intriguing rotation for the bombers, potentially having hughes, chamberlain and kennedy with spots.

Would any other team in baseball have three 23 year old or younger pitchers in their rotation? Its remarkable that they could still burn $180M on 22 other roster spots.

by nyybaseball99 on Sep 5, 2007 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

Silver Lining

Yes, but a lot of that payroll is about to come off the books. I really like the direction Cashman is taking. By 09' we will have shed a lot of dead payroll. Mix the ability to spend $$ with homegrown cheap talent and then you have the potential for the perfect storm. Like, Johan Santana.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Sep 5, 2007 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

The Crazy Payroll

Expanding on what pinstripes said, of the current payroll, salaries in 2008 that will not be in the 2009 payroll going to Clemens, Giambi, Pettitte, Abreu, Mussina, Pavano, and Farnsworth total up to $108.5 Million.

It is conceivable that Abreu and Pettitte, could potentially be back in 2009 if they are as effective (or nearly so) in 2008 as they have been in 2007, but even then it will come at reduced salaries, and I see almost no way any of the others are still around in 2009 unless it is at a tiny fraction of their 2008 salary.

by deadrody on Sep 6, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Mike Mussina

A poor man's Mussina, perhaps? Moose had a pretty good fastball in his prime, so I figure the "flashes of dominance" you say Kennedy will have are basically being like Mussina was consistently in his prime.

by deltabourne on Sep 6, 2007 12:42 AM EDT reply actions