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AQA Thread

Carew_tiny by John Sickels on in News Comment 391 comments

Here is the AQA Thread I promised you. Time is very short for me the next few days, as I have a ton of work to do and I also have to go on a family trip this weekend. But I said I would do this so I will.

Any question posted in this thread today between now and 5 pm central time will be answered some this afternoon or tomorrow. Caveats:
ONE QUESTION per person. Second questions will not be answered. Don't try to ask multiple questions in the same post. I have to set some limits otherwise the thread will become impossible to manage, so ask your question carefully.

UPDATE I will process these questions over the next couple of days, so check back often.

UPDATE II: I answered about half of these and will get the other half Saturday morning. There is lots of fodder here for longer blogposts.

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Melky Cabrera
Is he going over your expectation again?

by RollingWave on Aug 16, 2007 9:12 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

melky
Eh...not really. After last year when I revised my opinion of him, I thought he was capable of stuff like this.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Question
I'd appreciate it if you could give very brief opinions on the following pitchers, and maybe even letter grades if that's possible. (or at least a ranking)  Thanks.

Jon Niese
Jamie Richmond
Adam Ottavino
Tyler Robertson
Daniel Cortes

by GregJP on Aug 16, 2007 9:14 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pitchers
Niese: disappointing this year, still interesting long-term.
Richmond: great command, but not quite a breakthrough this year. Maybe next year.
Ottavino: looks very good to me.
Robertson: looks very good to me.
Cortes: I am somewhat skeptical about him.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mets
whats your thoughts on St.lucie 1B Nick Evans and while on Evans do you believe he has taken over Carp in the depth chart?

by Maine Man on Aug 16, 2007 9:17 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

evans
He's made major progress this year, much improved approach at the plate. Better than Carp? Maybe. Have to assess that in the book.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

biggest leaps
which prospects, not in your top 50 pitchers and top 50 hitters list at the beginning of the season have made the biggest leap in your mind (excluding '07 draftees, of course)

by Curtis Pride on Aug 16, 2007 9:18 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

question
way too big a question for this kind of format. this would be a good subject for a major blogpost.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

crap
I meant one pitcher and one hitter.  But didn't write it properly.

I suck.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 17, 2007 2:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not so much
You gave John an idea for a major blog post.  Maybe you didn't get an answer today, but you may very well get a much longer, more in depth answer in the future.  Not such a bad deal...
"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Aug 17, 2007 3:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Neil Walker in 2008
In Pittsburgh:

AB
BA
HR
RBI

by 3Com Park on Aug 16, 2007 9:23 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

walker
324 ab
.259 BA
6 HR
33 RBI

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Omar Poveda SP, TEX
Do you think his performance this year is real, basically, is he really a good prospect?

by Darce on Aug 16, 2007 9:24 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

poveda
I'd say mostly for real but fly ball tendencies stand out and could be a problem when he hits double-a next year. he's a grade b right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Vermont Starting Rotation
How would rank the starting pitchers for the Nationals in Vermont (Adrian Alaniz, Jordan Zimmermann, Colton Willems, Glenn Gibson, and Hassan Pena)?

by NFA Brian on Aug 16, 2007 9:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

rotation
I don't have enough current scouting information about Pena to answer this question right now. Willems is probably the best long-term prospect in the group based on what I know. Another question that would be worthy of a big blog post.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Projected Roster
Who are the best prospects in the minors at each position and why?

C
1B
2B
SS
3B
RF
CF
LF
SP
RP

by Locke000 on Aug 16, 2007 9:29 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

question
It would take an hour to answer this question properly. This is another thing that would be a good blog post topic, but not for an AQA thread.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mine
C:  Clement
1b:  Votto (unless you count Butler or Snyder)
2b:  Antonelli
SS:  Brignac
3B:  Longoria
RF:  Bruce
CF:  Rasmus
LF:  Snyder
SP:  Kershaw
RP:  Liz

by Curtis Pride on Aug 17, 2007 3:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Appalachian League
Which players are you the most excited about (impact,ceiling) in the Appy league this year?
The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Aug 16, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

question
Another question that would take an hour to research. Sorry guys, I do not have that kind of time. I will stick this on the "possible post" list.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

cool...
Next time I'll be more specific... I was mostly interested in E-Town hitters.
The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Aug 17, 2007 6:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Guys that didn't sign
What player(s) drafted this year will teams regret not signing for this draft?
#269

by mrmetaa on Aug 16, 2007 9:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

draft
Hmm....all the really important guys signed. The Phillies might regret not making a bigger push for Brandon Workman in the third round. We will see how he does for the University of Texas.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Desmond Jennings
Is he a top 100 prospect?  What is his upside.  Will he add power?  With all the Tampa outfielders, is a position switch possible, or is he a true CF?
JAS

by jasvlm on Aug 16, 2007 9:44 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jennings
he is a top 100 prospect and MAYBE a top 50. Impressive speed, good discipline, has power potential although it will take time to manifest. I really like him.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not in the book
How about a player (or two) not in your book that have caught your attention this year (excluding '07 draftees)?

Thanks.

by FI2 on Aug 16, 2007 9:47 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

players
Henry Alberto Rodriguez, RHP, Oakland Athletics. Can hit 100 MPH and made big progress with command this year.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Danny Richar
Your thoughts on him?  Is he what he showed this year in the minors or the disappointment he was every other year?

by shaftr on Aug 16, 2007 9:50 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

richar
I'm slowly warming up to him. I think he's a .260-.280 hitter with enough other contributions to be useful but not a star.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 2:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Aaron Bates
Has tore the cover off the ball this year in HiA ball and has been promoted to AA. He is 23 years old, so he was a little old for the league, but his numbers can't be ignored. What kind of a grade would you give him at this point?

by marchmadness on Aug 16, 2007 9:51 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bates
Gotta watch out for Lancaster/Cal League stat inflation, but I do like Bates. Would rate him as a Grade B/B- right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Andy Marte
Still hasn't turned 24, but a .707 OPS in nearly 300 AAA at bats this year doesn't have me enthused. Any reason for optimism?

This was the community projection back in January: 137 games, 495 at-bats, 129 hits, .260, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 21 homers, 72 RBI, 51 walks, 111 strikeouts, 2 steals

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Aug 16, 2007 9:52 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

marte
I'm getting down on Marte. There is something wrong here and I don't know what it is, and his status is slipping. At this point we have to cut expectations drastically I fear.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks john. now here;s a Q for the community
andy marte vs. eric duncan:

Marte (born 10/83): .244/.284/.420, 13 HR, 319 PA
Duncan (born 12/84): 235/.320/.378, 10 HR, 390 PA

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 17, 2007 3:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Marte vs Duncan
Marte is a failed prospect who can field but has huge holes is his batting stroke.

Duncan is younger but has less upside.  Looks over his head and probably has less of a future than Marte.  Duncan as the ARod replacement would cause great joy in Boston.

by sdtribefan on Aug 18, 2007 7:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

draft slotting
It seems teams blinked yesterday.  Will the draft slotting system continue to fall apart, or is this a hiccup?

by rlwhite on Aug 16, 2007 10:10 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

slotting
I think the whole slotting thing is stupid. I doubt they will drop the idea, but expect teams to ignore it as necessary.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kyle Blanks
Is he going to be the next Ryan Howard?

by bunner19 on Aug 16, 2007 10:10 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

blanks
No. He should be a good hitter but not Howard quality.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Johnny Cueto
What kind of grade would you give Cueto now that he's starting to prove it at higher levels?  

by joerote on Aug 16, 2007 10:13 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

cueto
B+ right now. Maybe B+/A-.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Slotting
Is slotting bad for the game, should they just go with a free market on draft picks and let economics regulate it?

by Kanst42 on Aug 16, 2007 10:23 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

economics
Well....I believe in a mixed economy, basically free market capitalism but with a solid government 'safety net' for the weaker members of society. History shows that private charity is NOT enough to help the weak, especially in the down part of the business cycle. But at the same time, if you have too high a level of taxation, you choke off growth. You have to find the "sweet spot" between too much government interfernce in the market, and not enough.

In baseball terms I think revenue sharing along the current lines is enough. I don't think we need a hard salary cap, and I think draft slotting is a stupid idea. I would drop draft bonus slotting, but I would stick with the current compensation for teams that aren't able to sign picks.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's your take on the injuried NY Mets
prospects ie. Gomez, Martinez, Guerra and where does Evans rank now as a prospect.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 16, 2007 10:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mets
never that impressed with Gomez. Martinez...eh, we need to see if he can stay healthy and develop some power, too early to know. Guerra has been pushed way too hard in my opinion. Evans is very good as I've already posted.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks
I still see Gomez as a Lofton or Crawford type with a slim chance to be Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rios two guys you weren't that high on before last year.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 17, 2007 7:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reid Brignac:
Chinks in the armor or just an "off" year ... his BABIP is really low, but is that all it is? Kind of a minor league version of Stephen Drew in '07?
Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Aug 16, 2007 10:27 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

brignac
Bad luck and nagging injuries. I still think he's a top prospect although his grade will be cut slightly.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

THANK YOU, JOHN
Thanks for the time and effort you give us here ... you rock the casbah!
Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Aug 20, 2007 1:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brent Lillibridge
You gave Brent Lillibridge a B in the Pirates preseason ranking.  What sort of grade would you give him now, and where do you think he fits in terms of the Braves prospect rankings?

by abravesfan on Aug 16, 2007 10:28 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lill
Still a Grade B. Haven't ranked the Braves system in awhile, although he'd be up there pretty high especially after the trades.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

3 prospects
hey john, could you please rank the following 3 prospects in terms of long term value:

fred lewis
brandon jones
steven pearce

if you could include what you expect to be an average mlb year for them, or maybe a comp to a current major leaguer, that would be great.  thanks!

by dacanes on Aug 16, 2007 10:29 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

prospects
Jones
Pearce
Lewis

Jones is riskier than Pearce but has higher upside.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Edwin Jackson
What's your take?  His stats are still godawful, but he's at least been doing better the last month or two.  You suggested earlier that he be moved to the pen; would you still suggest that?  I noticed his BABIP in '06 and '07 was .346 and (so far) .352.  Do you think this indicates "AAAA pitcher" status/a lack of major-league stuff, or is it bad luck that's due to straighten out eventually?
and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Aug 16, 2007 10:31 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jackson
Getting very down on Edwin. He's got the stuff but looks like a mess mechanically and has never recovered from the bad way the Dodgers handled him. As long as he throws hard he can recover, but will he? Dunno.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 3:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hypothetical Prospects
Two 20 yo RHP's in Low A ball:

Pitcher 1:  Main pitch is mid 90's 4 seam FB with a decent slider and raw changeup.  K/9= 9, BB/9 4.  GO/AO=0.80. ERA 2.60.

Pitcher 2:  Main pitch is low 90's two seamer.  Decent slider and raw changeup.  K/9= 7, BB/9= 2.  GO/AO= 2.  ERA= 2.60.

Which pitcher is the better prospect?

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 16, 2007 10:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hmmmmmmm
I'm assuming that park/league factors are the same. Would want to know more about their makeup, intelligence, work ethic, and physical projectability. Based SOLELY on the data presented I would rather have pitcher 2.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pitcher A to relieve
pitcher B to start

or at least that would be the way i'd handle it.  

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 17, 2007 4:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pitcher B has a much greater margin for error
if you could put a good defensive infield behind him, he'd have a chance to put up some excellent WHIPs, and eat a lot of innings.  

pitcher A would seem to be the prototypical young RHP, which, considering the success rate for pitchers of that ilk, is not a good thing.  there doesn't appear to be anything about pitcher A that seperates him from any other AAAA pitcher, but pitcher B has a BB rate and a GB% to fall back on.

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 17, 2007 4:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Plate discipline and batting average
I'm bewildered that Ryan Braun is still hitting .350-something.  He doesn't have a 3:5 BB:K ratio now, and he didn't show that sort of plate discipline or strike zone judgment in the minors, either.

Is there a type of hitter who can actually hit for a high average for several seasons with less than a 3:5 BB:K ratio, and what separates this sort of player from the more common erratic, hot-and-cold, streaky hitters like Geoff Jenkins?

by Stat Ninja on Aug 16, 2007 10:35 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dunno
Short answer: I don't know, lol.

Braun is remarkable. He's had good luck and I still think he's more of a .280-.300 hitter, with .320-.330 in his peak years, and that the league will catch up with him eventually. Some guys just have the bat speed to get away with sloppy discipline though, but it is rare.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Better prospect
Blake Beavan or Michael Main?

by FirebatM3 on Aug 16, 2007 10:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

too early
way too early to tell. initial instinct is Main.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bad year
can you name 1 top pitching and 1 hitting prospect who are having bad years (whether due to injury or just under-performance), but who you expect will bounce back and be top prospects again 12 months from now?

by jpahk on Aug 16, 2007 10:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hm
Brignac.

On the pitchers I would not hazard a guess at this point.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Biggest Haul fromDraft
Who do you think were the top 5 teams in the draft. Who had the biggest haul and what late round pick(10th round or later) has the best pottential to be a star.

by jbg3004 on Aug 16, 2007 10:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

blog post
I will turn this into a blog post.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Angel Villalona
Still not 17, and doing reasonably well for a 16 year old in pro ball, but he's not tearing up the AZL by any stretch of the imagination.  

When he signed, he said he hoped to be the Giants starting 3B by the time he was 18.

Given that the Giants are going to be putrid when Barry leaves, SF has almost no hitting prospects, but that he hasn't been a world-beater yet, when do you think Villalona will make his major league debut?

by Galt on Aug 16, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

villalona
At this rate....2012, about five months before the Mayan calender turns over in December and the world as we know it changes.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brian Horwitz
What are your thoughts on this guy since he continues to hit well over .300 everywhere he goes?

by joemorgansaysdeadredtoomuch on Aug 16, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

horwitz
.270-.285 hitter in the majors, but without much power. Don't see him as a starter for a good team.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chin Lung Hu
For real? how is he going to perform if he reach the bigs in the next yaer or two?

by RollingWave on Aug 16, 2007 10:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hu
I think he is for real, yes. I think he's a .270-.280 hitter with a lot of doubles at the major league level, to go with his glovework.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Michael Bowden
John, Bowden's not getting the attention Buchholz is getting, but can you riff on Michael a bit?  How has your opinion of him changed (if at all) after this season's performance?

by rick on Aug 16, 2007 10:53 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bowden
I like Bowden still. People overreacted to his early struggles in Double-A. He's not Roy Oswalt, but he can be Jeff Suppan, and there is something to be said for an ability to eat innings as Suppan can do.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ONE QUESTION per person
ONE QUESTION per person

by Darce on Aug 16, 2007 11:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah I noticed right after my post
so just ignore my previous question. Sorry

by Bravesin07 on Aug 16, 2007 11:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One Post
I was trying to decide this morning what the odds were that Bravesin07 would break this rule.

I think it was pretty well even money.  

Dude, you never disappoint.  :)

by GregJP on Aug 16, 2007 6:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...
I think RollingWave just posted his 2nd question about four questions up, and no one's said anything yet.  Hmmm.

by omambiyick on Aug 16, 2007 11:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chris Davis
A poor man's Brandon Wood, or a minor league slugger whose K rate will keep him from succeeding at the major league level?

by lonestarball on Aug 16, 2007 10:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

davis
considering his youth, davis gets the benefit of the doubt from me right now, as does wood.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

German Duran
What is your take on him, is this year for real?

by TRanger on Aug 16, 2007 11:03 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

duran
like him a lot. I think it's real and I'd give him a Grade B right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jeff manship
has he peaked, or will he continue to get better as he gets even further away from the TJ surgery he had before his freshman year in college?
JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 16, 2007 11:06 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

manship
Manship....similar to Kevin Slowey but gets more ground balls? I like him.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Juan Miranda
What are your thoughts on him and his future with the Yankees?
Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Aug 16, 2007 11:14 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

miranda
Looks like an interesting hitter, Cuban defector guy, but might not have enough home run power as the average first baseman.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Based on...
long term value and fullfilling their potential. Is Matt LaPorta or Beau Mills the better prospect?

by Havok1517 on Aug 16, 2007 11:15 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

matt
I prefer LaPorta at this point.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Seth Smith
if given a chance at the mlb level, is he still a 'tweener' (in terms of power for an of) or would he be an asset in CF (I've heard good things about his defense)...just thoughts about comps/what kind of player he might become.

Thanks!

by southboundpachyderm on Aug 16, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

smith
Neutral Park: .260-.280 hitter, 12-14 homers in 500 at-bats, good with the glove. Could start in center for a mediocre team, fourth outfielder for a good one.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeff Samardzija
Who is the real Jeff Samardzija?  The guy that posted a 5 ERA in high A ball or the guy that has a sub 2 ERA at AA?  Obviously the answer lies in between, but can you explain his struggles and recent success?
Check out my NEW Chicago Cubs Minor League System website: Road To Wrigley

by jonpyardi on Aug 16, 2007 11:30 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

smar
I don't trust him at all. I know the scouts still like him, but I am very skeptical. Want to see a full season of Double-A success before I believe in him.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eric Hurley
Just how good do you think he'll be for the Rangers?

by naropean on Aug 16, 2007 11:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hurley
I like Hurley a lot on his own terms, HOWEVER his fly ball and gopher ball tendencies will be a problem in Texas. He will probably struggle if they throw him into the fire right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"S"
You alluded to the prevalence of PED's during the so-called steroid era, and the subsequent crackdown.  What percentage of players would you say used at the peak of the steroid era, and what percentage are using now during these days of testing?

by GuyinNY on Aug 16, 2007 11:42 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dunno
A GM told me once he thought about 60% of players had tried it at some point and that about 40% were frequent users in the days before testing. I have no idea what the current percentages would be. Certainly lower than it was, but not zero.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

McGeary
What is the max signing bonus would you have been willing to give to sign Jack McGeary? Please consider the rest of the terms of the deal suggest he gets $200K for tuition and will be a full-time student at Stanford and only play pro ball Mid-May to Mid-August until he graduates?

by McLovin on Aug 16, 2007 11:42 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mcgeary
I'd have been willing to give him mid-first-round money. Don't know how that would fit in with the scholarships and stuff.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yusmeiro Petit

What is your take on Petit now?  He seemed to pitch ok in MLB, perhaps better than people thought a year ago.  However, he hasn't been dominating either.  What do you see as his upside?

Thanks a lot.

by dbimberg on Aug 16, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

petit
Solid number three/number four inning-eating starter is what I expect, nothing awesome but not bad. Long-term value will depend on durability from season to season.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jeff niemann
what's keeping him his draft ceiling of #1 starter, and is that still his ceiling?
http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Aug 16, 2007 11:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

niemann
From what I hear, command WITHIN the strike zone is an issue for him. He throws strikes and doesn't walk people that much, but his strikes are not always quality strikes. Still has #1 ceiling but more likely to settle in below that, which would still be good.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hector Gomez
What is your opinion of Hector Gomez and his tools? I've been hearing Hanley comps and I'd love to hear your take.

by Metty5 on Aug 16, 2007 11:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

gomez
i like gomez but hanley talk is a bit premature. Very toolsy, has to prove he can hit outside of Asheville.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eric Campbell
How has this year effected your opinion of him, and do you think he still fits in to ATL's long-term plans?

by mraver on Aug 16, 2007 11:50 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

campbell
Braves officials blame his poor play this year on injuries he is trying to play through. I'll accept that for now.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's your take on Justin Masterson?
Figured I'd bail out Bravesin07.  Thanks John!
"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Aug 16, 2007 11:54 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

masterson
High strikeout rate, lots of grounders. What is not to like??

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Delmon Young
How concerned are you that Young still doesn't seem inclined to walk and do you think that he can fulfill his potential anyway?

by OldProspects on Aug 16, 2007 11:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not very
Not very concerned. Yes. He has the bat speed to compensate. Most hitters don't.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Manny Parra
If healthy, what's his ceiling?

by manhands on Aug 16, 2007 11:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

parra
Not a superstar, but a well above average starting pitcher.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he will live and die by his health
i asked john about parra at some point two years ago, and his response was that parra had a B+ arm with C- health.  

he's healthy right now, and his minor injuries in his early 20s could serve to be a blessing in disguise.

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 17, 2007 4:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Other Analyst
What do you think about the analysis of Carlos Gomez of Hardballtimes and do you find that his thoughts make sense?
when your ERA has letters and not numbers, it's a bad thing- kevin goldstein

by WakeboardJock on Aug 16, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

gomez
I don't like critiquing other analysts, but I enjoy Gomez's work a great deal and find it very informative.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Danny Duffy
Duffy, an 07 3rd rounder out of a California HS, has been lights out in the Arizona League with a BAA around .160 and 48 K in just 27.1 IP. One negative: 14 walks. What does the future hold for him?

by rdf8585 on Aug 16, 2007 12:02 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

duffy
Let's see what he does outside of AZL. But I like his stuff. Gotta see if the health holds up and the command improves.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carlos Gonzalez
What is his upside now? do you think he can be a regular major league player? Is his grade down?

by jahs34 on Aug 16, 2007 12:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

gonzalez
Opinion hasn't really changed. Remains high upside, high risk.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Royals Draft
Can you give me your thoughts on Mike Moustakas?

by count sutton on Aug 16, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bat
excellent bat, progress will depend on how they can fit him in defenisvely. Is he really a shortstop??

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Astros prospect
Which Astros prospect excites you more:

Brad James
J.R. Towles
Josh Flores

by Duman on Aug 16, 2007 12:20 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

towles
Towles. I don't see the other guys as possible regulars but Towles is.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Deolis Guerra
Thoughts differ on him around this neck of the woods, but I was just wondering where you think his future lies for Guerra at the MLB level, and what kind of ceiling he possesses.

Thanks.

A Steve Trachsel pitched game moves faster than Pirate management moves their prospects.

by RDoumit41 on Aug 16, 2007 12:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

guerra
Well, he has the PHYSICAL potential to be a number one starter, an ace. But I don't like the way the Mets have handled him, and of course he could get hurt or never develop his command or any number of things.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dukes
What do you think happens to Dukes over the next several years? I mean that as in, the guy sorta has 2 futures... one where he is outta baseball this time next year, one where he... ?

by mroak89 on Aug 16, 2007 12:32 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dukes
He will either be out of baseball and possibly in the criminal justice system, or he will be a slightly above average major league player for a long time to come. He has the PHYSICAL ability to be a star, but even if he stays out of trouble he might just be slightly above average all things considered.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks a bunch John!
I had a long argument bout specifically this... I thought he'd eventually become a star, but I see that you're right, and besides -- even slightly above average is a huge victory for him (and any prospect, really)

by mroak89 on Aug 18, 2007 7:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Royster
Ryan Royster - Actual prospect, or do his contact issues prevent him from exploding at higher levels?
Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Aug 16, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And to clarify
I mean the Devil Rays' Ryan Royster, not Jerry Royster's son who was drafted this year.
Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Aug 16, 2007 12:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

royster
Oh, he's a prospect alright, but his batting average is not likely to hold up unless he makes adjustments. I'd give him a C+.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

andrus
he's at .373/.400 at Bakersfield after a slow start (hitless the first 3 games, if memory serves, not sure). he was already improving post-all star break in Myrtle Beach -- is he turning a corner?

by scooter on Aug 16, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

andrus
Beware small sample size.

There was really nothing wrong with him that getting out of Myrtle Beach  and some physical maturity wouldn't fix.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brandon Jones
What do you see his ceiling and when do you see him becoming a MLB regular?

Thanks.

by mckeeno on Aug 16, 2007 12:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

heh
Loaded question ^^

by mraver on Aug 16, 2007 2:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jones
Jones can be a .260-.280 hitter with 25-30 homers a season at his peak and 15-20 steals. I'd say second half of 2008 or 2009, he still has a bit of work to do.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chris Pettit
Is he the new Hunter Pence?  Or just the new Justin Ruggiano (which still isn't bad)?

by gogotabata on Aug 16, 2007 12:42 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mich Einertson
is there any hope that Einertson can fufull the potential he once showed?

by znyfan on Aug 16, 2007 12:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah
Yeah, he's doing better this year. But he was never as good a hitter as it looked like the first year.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeff Bianchi
John - will this Royals' prospect pan out eventually?

by pieman1121 on Aug 16, 2007 1:00 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bianchi
I think the injuries took a toll, and he's still adjusting to playing regularly. We will know more next year but I would already downgrade his status.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kevin Kouzmanoff
Do you think Kouz will ever hit ML pitching at a high level?

Will he settle in and become an ML regular or will he become a AAAA slugger?

Jay Bruce can DISAPPEAR

by ufoboy90 on Aug 16, 2007 1:02 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yes
Yes I think he will hit.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chris Nelson
How much of his prospect status has he re-gained?
"fortunately, scouts believe Gomez has enough tools to replace one of his appendages a la Edward Scissorhands" - bleedjaxblue, 7/5/07

by jc3 on Aug 16, 2007 1:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

nelson
He is doing a lot better this year and is still young enough that the improvement is likely for real. I'd rate him as a B- right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Braves RHP Tommy Hanson
What's his projection?  #2 or #3 maybe?

by themurph on Aug 16, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah
Yeah I'd agree with that. #2 ceiling, more likely a solid #3.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jurrjens
How does he project?

by tonyinstl on Aug 16, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jurrjens
Number three starter who eats innings and gets groundballs. Not spectacular but very useful.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Andy LaRoche
What do you see for Andy LaRoche in 2008?  
Sell our team Bob Nutting!

by frae on Aug 16, 2007 1:13 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

andy
If he's healthy he should be ready for the majors, say hitting .260/.340/.460 with better numbers to come in another year or so.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Prospects
What are your 3 most Underrated prospects and what are your 3 most overrated prospects also what are impressions on the giants draft class?

by bartonboi on Aug 16, 2007 1:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

blogpost
that's three questions. fodder for a bigger post.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ramon Romeijn
What is your take on Ramon Romeijn, 16 yr old pitcher with seattle, and what is your projection for him?

by FishHead on Aug 16, 2007 1:26 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no idea
No idea. Don't know enough about him to answer the question.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also acceptable...
The kid is 16 years old for crying out loud.
Cub Fan - Bud Man

by Orangeman94 on Aug 22, 2007 7:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brewers prospects
All-Star, MLB regular, or bust?:

A. Salome
J. Jeffress
M. LaPorta
M. Brantley

thanks John!

by mjwelch11 on Aug 16, 2007 1:31 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

br3ewers
Salome: midway between regular and backup
Jeffress: ehh....if healthy a regular starter
LaPorta: All Star slugger
Brantley: excellent fourth outfielder

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:56 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Handling of Luke Hochevar
It has been talked about that the Royals do not allow Luke Hochevar and many of their other young pitchers to throw all of their pitches. Is this a strategy that has proven successful with other prospects? Given his performance this year, what do you expect from him in the future?

by iheartfdr on Aug 16, 2007 1:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hochevar
It's a weird strategy...don't know if it works or not. Probably a case by case thing. I have no clue what to think about Hochevar, I don't like his numbers very much this year and the scouting reports are all over the place, some very good and some not very good.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chris Pettit
Is Rancho Cucamonga OF Chris Pettit a legitimate prospect? I find myself to be really skeptical about him.              

by cronie on Aug 16, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Repeated question.
Sorry about that. Please disregard.

by cronie on Aug 17, 2007 2:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mets top 10
what would be your top 10 list for mets prospects?

saying Pelfrey, and Milledge have graduated and considering gomez a prospect still

by Fair Projector on Aug 16, 2007 1:37 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why would u want him to include gomez?
it just takes away one spot that you probably know already lol

by Metty5 on Aug 16, 2007 1:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

top 10
big question, haven't looked closely enough at the Mets sysetm lately to answer this in detail right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ryan Sweeney (OF-CHW)
Is it time to give up or should we keep hope alive?

by rek967 on Aug 16, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sweeney
I have always been lukewarm about his power potential but he is still young. My guess is that he could be an outfield version of Jeff Burroughs and that the power is never likely to come. Similar player would be Shane Costa although Costa is older and even less likely to pan out.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm guessing you mean...
... Sean Burroughs, not Jeff?
and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Aug 18, 2007 2:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Clayton Kershaw
Can he overcome his high walk rate and become an ace at the ML level? When does he reach the bigs?

by shakeyamooni on Aug 16, 2007 1:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yes
Yes.
if his command sharpens fast late 2008 is possible. Otherwise 2010.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 11:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Matt Antonelli
Since Marcus Giles is so bad in SD right now -- any chance Matt Antonelli might be the starting 2B for the Pads next year?

by Ur on Aug 16, 2007 1:44 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

antonelli
The chance is not zero but it is less than 50%. I'd look for him more in late 08 or 09.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll keep it short for you...
How would you rank the the top five high school prospects taken in the draft?

(here they are in order of being drafted)
Moustakas
Vitters
Parker
Bumgarner
Aumont

by jsickler89 on Aug 16, 2007 1:51 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

opinion
My opinion would be

Moustakas
Heyward
Parker
Vitters
Bumgarner
Aumont

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tyler Clippard
What do you think of him?  Was his major league showing what is to be expected, or was it injury/youth related?  Upside possibility?

by hallofamer2000 on Aug 16, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

clipp
another guy who is a fourth starter type. if he stays healthy (which he probably will) and confident (NOT easy in the Bronx) he will adjust. But the latter is a big if.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Scott Elbert
With Elbert missing critical development time, do you think the Dodgers will give up on him as a potential starter, a la Greg Miller, and just shove him in the bullpen to be a high leverage LOOGY?

by NMUWildcat027 on Aug 16, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

elbert
dunno. depends on health. THey will probably leave him as a starter if at all possible.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Edinson Volquez
Has he turned the corner and set himself up for a career? What grade/ranking would he merit these days?

by cconley on Aug 16, 2007 1:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

volquez
he has successful rebuilt his mechanics and has done a lot better the last month or so. I still don't trust him to pitch well in Texas but I have a bit more faith than I did six months ago. Eh...Grade B-.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brian Anderson
What is his future (White Sox CF)?  Does he need a new environment?

by Diggity Dino on Aug 16, 2007 1:59 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

scenery
needs a change of scenery and his bat was overrated anyway.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

SS Carmen Angelini
The Yankees just signed him to a surprisingly large draft bonus ($1M) from the 10th round. How good is he?

by Stephcaflowne on Aug 16, 2007 2:07 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

angelini
He's supposed to be a second-round talent, so this could be a very nice pickup for the Yankees. More than that, we'll have to see hwo he adjusts to pro ball.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Choose any ONE of the questions:
I was hoping to add some variety to the type of question and I had a few to ask so I thought I would list them and allow you to choose. Please answer any ONE of the following:

Choice 1:
What team's scouts or what scout in particular that you interact with impresses you the most (has the best eye for talent or more insight into players)?

Choice 2:
When you are at a game to get an idea about players, do you mainly watch everything specific, top players  are doing (defense, swing, baserunning) or watch the game as a whole a just try to make notes on anything you notice from any of the players?

Choice 3:
If you could work as the head of scouting for any team, who would it be and (if you have the time) why?

by grozzy on Aug 16, 2007 2:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2
Choice 2:
It depends on the game. Sometimes I go to see a specific player and will focus very intently on what that player is doing. Other times I just go and take notes on anything interesting that pops up. I like to wander around the park and watch the game from different angles. You see more things that way, notice thigns that you might not notice just sitting behind home plate.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks a bunch,,,
... for answering. Have a great trip.

by grozzy on Aug 18, 2007 4:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fautino de Los Santos
What do you know about this White Sox breakout player?  His rates are all eye-popping!

by BaseballBrain on Aug 16, 2007 2:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fau
Great stuff, but will the command be there? But a very strong up-and-coming prospect.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rowdy Hardy?
Can he make it to the Majors?

by adschofield on Aug 16, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hardy
Well, he deserves a shot at higher levels. We will have a better read once he reaches Double-A. But he has to be PERFECT to survive...merely "very good" won't be good enough. He has no margin for error at all.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eric Eiland
What are you're thoughts on Eiland. He is called a 5-tool player but at this point I want to know your insight.
Go Jays!!!!

Allan's World

Blue bird Banter

by achengy on Aug 16, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

eiland
Other than stolen bases, his numbers are pretty ugly. Good athlete with youth on his side, but has a lot of work to do refining his game.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carlos Triunfel
In lieu of asking tons of mini-questions, just a general overview of your thoughts, feelings and/or predictions of Triunfel.

by niko on Aug 16, 2007 2:20 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

triunfel
just wrote a newsletter about him yesterday. he's extremely young, extremely talented, and is being rushed too fast in my opinion. Could be a superstar.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carlos Quentin
will he turn it around next year?

by foolintherain55 on Aug 16, 2007 2:21 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

quentin
If healthy, yes. That's a BIG IF.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yunel Escobar
What's your 2008 and long-term view on Yunel Escobar?

by Yakker on Aug 16, 2007 2:22 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

escobar
if he plays he should be very good....280+ hitter with fine defense and enough pop to be helpful.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

General question
Who is the biggest prospect bust since you've been following the minor leagues?

by BlueEyesAustin on Aug 16, 2007 2:22 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

busts
Lots to pick from.

discounting pitchers, it would be hard to find a bigger waste of pure talent than Ruben Rivera, who could have been a superstar.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Next D. Lowe / C. Wang
John, thanks for taking the time to answer our questions.

Are there any pitchers out there who you like to "overcome" lower K rates to become effective starters in the Derek Lowe / C. Wang mold due to their ability to keep the ball on the ground (I like Oswaldo Sosa)?

by Mario66 on Aug 16, 2007 2:22 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sosa
Sosa is a good one. I'm sure there are some but I can't think of any off the top of my head. This would be good blog fodder.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

here's mine
if you, john, won a contest to play left field for the twins for an inning, do you think you could pull it off, or would your defensive deficiencies be exposed immediately?  

by wily mo on Aug 16, 2007 2:24 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL
well....imagine a shorter version of Matt Stairs, with an extra 30 pounds, less speed, no power, and a weaker arm and you have me.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll take this...
...over Rondell White...

by evilgenius on Aug 18, 2007 11:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blue Jays farm system
John, with the deadline having past, where would you rank the Blue Jays farm system and what are it's strengths and weaknesses?

by parrot11 on Aug 16, 2007 2:25 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jays
very mediocre right now, a below average system. Strengths...pitchers with control. Weaknesses...few impact talents.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cameron Maybin
His minor league stats concern me, notably a very high BABIP (~.400) and GB% (~60%) with a low LD% (~10%). These numbers have been consistent, too.  

It appears he's using speed and poor defense to be successful, not pure hitting ability. What can we expect Maybin to develop into? Ichiro? Granderson? Willy Taveras?

by HavyBeaks on Aug 16, 2007 2:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybin
I don't think he's quite ready personally. Down the line, .280-.290 hitter, .300 at his peak, with 20-25 homers, 20-25 steals, excellent defense, for a long time.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd think he could get 30-40 steals
That sounds like he could be a lot like Beltran in KC.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 18, 2007 4:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cale Iorg
Cale Iorg's signing bonus is a record for a 6th round pick.  Could you please give me a quick scouting report on him?

by SBcaptain2 on Aug 16, 2007 2:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

was...
it was a signing bonus record, before the stanford dropout signed.

by The Rocc on Aug 16, 2007 6:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

iorg
If his name was "Cale Smith" rather than "Cale Iorg", I very much doubt he would have gone this high or made this much money. He's a solid-all-around player, especially on defense, but he's got two years of rust on his game and I have doubts about his bat. His bloodlines and family name got him this contract although people will deny that.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Steve Pearce
Who is a good camparision for him as hes been pretty old for his levels but he has absolutly mashed at every level ?
Thanks

by baseballgg24 on Aug 16, 2007 2:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pearce
hmm....kinda reminds me of Chris Shelton.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i know you have a rule about asking 2 questions
but, would you mind if other posters gave their opinions about some of these questions?

the hochevar, fautino de los santos, and the next D lowe questions in particular i think i could give a useful opinion on.

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 16, 2007 2:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

easiest for John
I would think the easiest way for John to go through and make sure everything is answered is for everyone to just ask questions one after another, and then wait for John to answer a question first before offering your comment on it.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 16, 2007 2:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brandon Morrow
What's the best course of action to stretch out his arm and put him in the rotation where he belongs?

by montenegro on Aug 16, 2007 2:39 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

morrow
Well I think he should be in the minors working on his command anyway. but if he stays in the majors, you work him into long relief, 2, then 3, then 4 inning stints, over a period of three months, then you spot start him for a bit.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Scott Cousins
What are your thoughts on him? Is he the best outfield prospect in the Marlins system?
Future Fish

by Maverick on Aug 16, 2007 2:39 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

cousins
Well he's OK but I want to see what he can do outside the Sally League.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

David Price
Now that Price has signed with Tampa Bay, how soon before we see him in the bigs? Does he immediately become their best pitching prospect and a #1 starter type pitcher, a la Tim Lincecum last year?

Thanks very much for taking the time to answer these questions. Quite an undertaking, but it should make for a great feature.

by Pawtucket Pat on Aug 16, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

price
yeah, potential number one, should be ready for the majors within a year, best prospect in an already-loaded system, Lincecumness is quite possible.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Craig Hansen
Is there any hope, or was he just never very good?

by jjsmtad on Aug 16, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

command
His command is just not there. He was BADLY rushed and poorly handled by the Red Sox. Possibly by Boras too, if the rumors about Boras' guys tinkering with Hansen's mechancis and pitches are true.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

New Developments
He reported rediscovering his college slider in mid-July.  Check out the before and after numbers:

Thru 7/12, 28 G, 32.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 6.89 K/9, 6.89 BB/9 (25:25 K:BB).

After, 7 G, 13.1 IP, 0.68 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.83 K/9, 2.03 BB/9 (19:3 K:BB)

And then he went on the DL with elbow swelling, and hasn't pitched since 8/1.

by Eric Van on Aug 18, 2007 3:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Travis Jones
I love the guy. Hit well at Sc this year. Off to a good start for the braves. What are your thoughts?

Thanks John!

by benzalman on Aug 16, 2007 2:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jones
good pop in his bat. let's see where he stands 10 months from now.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

question
What is the future of Max Scherzer, is he a starter or closer? We know he has the stuff but does he have the command to go more than 1-2 innings? And how long til he sees time in the majors?
"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on Aug 16, 2007 2:51 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

scherzer
Well I would want to see how his command looks next spring. The sooner it becomes more consistent, the quicker he's in the show. it's possible in '08. Personally I would prefer him in relief since I think he is an injury risk as a starter.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Draft Repairs

If you were commissioner, How would you fix the obviously broken MLB draft.

by rutkap on Aug 16, 2007 2:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

draft
I don't think it is especially broken. There is plenty of revenue sharing money now, even the "poor" teams can afford to draft people if they allocate their resources properly.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Adam Jones
What do you think of the way the Mariners are handling Jones at the ML level?  They are not playing him nearly everyday, in fact he sits more than he plays.  He is often used as a pinch runner or a defensive replacement.  Is this going to stunt his development?  Thanks John.
NL West, Prepare to be Ledezmarized

by Grrranderson on Aug 16, 2007 2:55 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jones
he needs to play, and if they keep him on the bench too long it will harm his development, yes.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jacob Butler
What are your thoughts on Jays outfield Jacob Butler, he was a hs kid picked in the 8th round and is having a nice year in Dunedin with 22 hrs, slugging over .500 and an 870 ops...  Do you see him as anymore than a 4th outfielder type?

by tmsnow on Aug 16, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

butler
want to see what he does in Double-A but he's on the radar at least. He's a college guy though, from University of Nevada, not a high school guy.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jon Garland
Say the Sox were to trade Garland this off-season for a package centering around minor leaguers.  

I have trouble distinguishing his actual worth from my slightly biased opinion of his worth.

What would be a fair package for him?

Thanks a bunch John!

-Jeeves Life in the Cell, a Sweet Home Sports site

by Jeeves on Aug 16, 2007 2:59 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

garland
well I'm not a huge Garland fan. I'd be happy with a Grade B prospect and a couple of Grade C guys.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Walks and AVG for prospects
All else being equal, would you have a more favorable view of a hitting prospect with a high AVG and subpar walk rate, or a subpar AVG and a high walk rate?

by FlipYrWhig on Aug 16, 2007 3:01 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hmm....
Hmm.....tell me about what is strikeout rate is and I can answer the question. Possibly the former if his strikeout rate is low too.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

K/BB
I was trying to keep it as simple as possible -- to be more expansive about it, it seems like there was a pretty long stretch when prospect observers really keyed on BB rates (because they showed a good batting eye, which would be necessary for success in the bigs), but I get the impression that people are beginning to step back from that.  

Is drawing walks in the minors the same skill as drawing walks in the majors?  Similarly, is making contact in the minors the same skill as making contact in the majors?  Or in the minors are hitters facing so many wild and/or sloppy pitchers that they can learn bad habits (e.g., being unaggressive at the plate) that actually end up retarding their development?

(I hope something like this could be a jumping-off point for a longer blog post.)

by FlipYrWhig on Aug 18, 2007 2:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BA vs Walks.
Not to downplay the importance of plate discipline and OBP, but if a player in the low minors can't hit .300 or close to it in their first full season for college draftees and by their second full season for HS draftees, I become very skeptical. If they can hit .300 and maintain an OBP of close to .400 with it, then that's a plus, but forced to choose, I'd take the kid who hits for higher BA.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 18, 2007 3:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'd take the BB rate
you know he'll walk, and get on base at an okay rate... the avg guys still have a higher tendency to lose their ability for contact. BB rates have more consistency into the Majors, and I'd look for guys who give me the best chance of producing at the majors... if like 2/20 high walk rate guys succeed at a similar clip in the majors vs. 1/20 high avg guys, even if the high avg guy is better than either of the high walk guys, together they would be better than him, so I'd bank on lots of solid production in choosing between the two.

by mroak89 on Aug 18, 2007 7:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dr B, Alon...
Thanks for entering into the dialogue -- my personal feeling is that I'd like to see high AVGs in the lower minors, and I'd be willing to see that flip to higher BB rates in the upper minors.  In my mind it's related to the way that Ks for hitters are not too worrisome in the majors -- some of the best hitters whiff a lot -- but are a potential warning sign developmentally.  If you're hitting .260 on the way up, even if you're walking a lot, IMHO that doesn't bode well.

by FlipYrWhig on Aug 18, 2007 8:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BB's
I like young prospects with high average and low K's.  As players age, they walk more and more.

Also, I worry about players that walk too much too early, I think they burn out early.

by elricsi on Aug 21, 2007 8:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Juan Miranda
Signed for a lot with the Yankees in the offseason and has been hitting A+/AA extremely well. How would you grade him?

by Deech on Aug 16, 2007 3:18 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I asked
above
Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Aug 16, 2007 5:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reds question
Where would the Reds farm system rank among the majors?
http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Aug 16, 2007 3:19 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

reds
dunno, haven't analyzed the Reds system lately. Improving though, given Bruce and Votto and Cueto.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

B. McCarthy for J. Danks & N. Masset trade
what's your take on the trade now John?

thanks

southsidesox.com

by The Wizard on Aug 16, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

danks
it is still too early to say, depends on if Danks lives up to his potential, which is still a very open question.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Weeks
What do you believe the odds are that Rickie Weeks ever becomes a .360 OBP with 20 HR performer?
sig: Karim Garcia posted dominant AAA stats at 19. So can we stop acting like ARL trumps all in every discussion...

by natsfan2005 on Aug 16, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

weeks
I think the constant nagging injuries of playing 2B are wearing Weeks down. At this point it may be just a 50/50 shot of him living up to the potential of his natural talent. If he moved to the outfield he'd have a better shot at rebounding with the bat.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ruben Tejada - GCL Mets
Is he someone Mets fans should start getting excited about?

by brandard on Aug 16, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

tejada
sure, have fun with him. But he's a long way off. Be excited but don't bet the future.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Success
How systematically do you measure your own success?  100% of A rated prospects and 80% of B rated prospects make the majors?  Something like that?

by Bravesin57 on Aug 16, 2007 3:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a new bravesin...
nice...
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Aug 17, 2007 2:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL
If this is the same poster, I'm really starting to buy into everyone completely writing him off.  Unbelievable...if it isn't you, sorry but it sure looks like something you would pull.

by jfish26101 on Aug 20, 2007 2:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd say
The text is very different.  Probably not the same guy.

by siddfynch on Aug 20, 2007 5:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On second thought
That was also his first comment ever.  Hmmm....

by siddfynch on Aug 20, 2007 5:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bravesin08
?
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on Aug 20, 2007 10:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no
taken. he'll have to try harder.

by jpahk on Aug 20, 2007 11:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you were taken hostage...
by a gang of Nicaraguan thieves lead by Angelina Jolie and they told you that you would only be released if you satisfied one of their two demands, either A) cut off your own left arm with a sterile hacksaw, or B) allow the ring leader (Angelina) to use your body as her sexual play toy for the next week, which would you choose?  

by rothe on Aug 16, 2007 3:48 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

C
C) allow Angelina Jolie to use me as her toy for a week, then join the group of thieves.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2007 4:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hm
well that's interesting, he went out of order to answer this one

by wily mo on Aug 17, 2007 4:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dan Meyer
Is his stuff all the way back?  What is his ceiling now, and what do you think his future looks like.  Thanks!

by drwmsu1 on Aug 16, 2007 4:01 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OR
What are your thoughts on Dan Meyer, if that fits the one question rule better.  Thanks again!

by drwmsu1 on Aug 16, 2007 6:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

meyer
Command is an issue but his stuff is back to hwere it was before according to Keith Lieppman. He's worked very hard at his rehab which also counts in his favor. If he can get his control back he could still be very good.

by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2007 12:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs