True or False?

by John Sickels on Jul 15, 2007 1:05 PM EDT in News Comment 46 comments

True or False:

Joba Chamberlain will win more major league games in his career than Phil Hughes. Discuss.

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true

his name is Joba. Good enough reason for me.

Curtis Granderson fan

by jrose643 on Jul 15, 2007 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

true +1

Hughes will keep getting injured.

Big fat dudes are more durable.

by elricsi on Jul 15, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

if he loses one arm, he can grow out another... right?

by mroak89 on Jul 15, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

false

as much as I like Joba, his injury history coupled with the fact that I believe Hughes has better stuff leads me to believe he will not win as many games as his counterpart.

I still think Joba will be very good long-term and will win a lot of games if he manages to stay with the Yankees.

by BlackSox on Jul 15, 2007 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

Hughes will pitch way better but Joba will get more run support and luckily end up with more wins.

And then I will have another reason to not care about wins for SPs.

Mike Zagurski Fan Club

by Grrranderson on Jul 15, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Joba

more dominating, power stuff.

by scooter on Jul 15, 2007 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right now, I'd flip a coin for them. Beyond that, there are so many things that go into a long, successful career........just no way to know. I'm not a Yankees fan, but for some reason, I find myself rooting for Joba and rooting against Hughes.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jul 15, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

Can't ... answer ... question. Shiny new toy. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jul 15, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can't stop laughing...

at this one.

by SenorGato88 on Jul 17, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

false

based solely on conditioning. Hughes is a better athlete and i think he'll go longer in games and stay healthier than Joba.

by JDSussman on Jul 15, 2007 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

I like both of them, but both are somewhat injury prone, however Hughes seem more freak accidents while Joba's could be recurring, plus Hughes has better stuff and all around is the better prospect

by wir963 on Jul 15, 2007 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Amazing

How people change their opinion so quickly. Hughes has been out of action for a couple of months, and Joba has been tearing up AA, so immediatley everyone downgrades hughes (who had a hamstring injury not an arm injury), and upgrade joba. Hughes has what 2 starts at MLB level? Joba has a decent amount at AA.
I read somewhere that Hughes peak will be higher but Joba will have the longer career. Who knows, Both are pretty talented... and as a yankee fan im hoping its a tie and a lot of em.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jul 15, 2007 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I believe you trying to be sarcastic with your remark about the difference in experience. Hughes has shown a decent amount of command at the MLB level (still too wild) whereas Joba has yet to throw a ball beyond AA. I agree that they both have great talent, but Hughes has MUCH better secondary pitches to rely on and at the MLB level having an explosive fastball and middling secondary offerings gets you nothing more than whiplash (ask Matt Anderson).

Right now I take Hughes hands down for a better career. However, that could all changes once I see Joba in the Bronx.

by Sage Sam on Jul 15, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hughes...

...I put the over/under on career wins for Joba at about 50...but the over/under for career saves at about 250. (That's right, I said it...with the pitching depth that the Yankees have in the minors, Rivera's age/contract status and Joba's (somewhat) spotty injury/conditioning record, this makes a lot of sense IMO...Joba could be Frankie-esque as a reliever)

Lincecum=Seabiscuit, Hughes=Barbaro, Michael Pelfrey=Zippy Chippy?

by uga007 on Jul 15, 2007 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with ya Uga007

Hughes might be great in the short term but Chamberlain may have a spotty record of health but Hughes have been compared to Babaro. What makes you think that Hughes might pitch that long. I can see Hughes breaking his leg and then the yankee brass and Hughes family putting him to sleep.

by NYYLover1000 on Jul 15, 2007 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, Carlos Mencia...

get your own material!!!!

by slurve on Jul 15, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jul 22, 2007 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts

I don't think Joba's past injuries were really serious. There were no arm troubles and his knee trouble should alleviate since he lost lots of weight since Yankees picked him. Just imagine if he didn't have arm or weight problems and some teams like Pirates could've picked him in the early picks.
Anyway, I watched Joba in the future's game and in the Trenton game that was broadcasted in CN8 yesterday and his stuff flat-out looked great. According to Alan Horne's father, he was consistently 96~97mph and hit 100 once on the stadium radar gun. His slider didn't have much of movement, but it has very late break, which is great enough to be a deceptive K pitch. I didn't really see much changeup, but according to recent Scout article, he's trying to change speeds by utilizing more changeup. Unless curse of RicK Ankiel or curse of Mark Prior strikes, he's definetly future frontline starter for Yankees. He throws strikes, his fastball is definetely an upside than Hughes.

Hughes, in the other hand, is forgotten from many fans right now. But there's no denial that he's a great pitcher who actually has future. Just imagine if he could've continued that no-hitter game versus Texas and if he didn't get that freak injury while doing the agility drills. For Hughes, I've seen him pitching in last year's future's game and the game versus Texas and he's flat out nasty too. Fastball doesn't have much zip as Joba's but can go up to 96mph
Another advantage for Hughes is that he changes his speeds... alot. He can throw changeup in any count, he can bring 71mph slow curve after 93mph fastball with a good command. I can't wait to see him back in Bronx. If you discount the debut versus Blue Jays, he's a stud. I hope he doesn't become like next Tony Conigliaro.

In conclusion, I'm not exactly sure on who's better. It's pretty ambiguous situation. Both could be future #1 or 2 for Yankees, both have good stuffs with command if any serious injury doesn't strike them.

by vertigo991 on Jul 15, 2007 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

n/t

by acerimusdux on Jul 15, 2007 9:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One expert said

Jobas upside is joe blanton with more ks.... however, added that if joba developes a plus changeup then he could be pretty lethal.

IMO any pitcher with a plus or plus plus change, has a pretty good chance of success in the majors.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jul 15, 2007 10:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

I really can't think of anything that makes Blanton a good comparison.

by limozeen on Jul 15, 2007 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

Size is one thing that makes a good comparison. In fact, Blanton with much more K's is actually good comparison IMO. Except that Joba has more explosive stuffs and has more potential. Here's Blanton's stat so far.

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=430599

Another comparison I can think of is Bartolo Colon in his prime

by vertigo991 on Jul 15, 2007 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A Huge Pet Peeve...

What on earth do things like size have to do in terms of comparing Joba and Blanton as MLB pitchers.

Whether it's race, ethnic, or in this case, personal appearance, the similarities between the two in stature have nothing to do with their similarities (or lack there of, in this case) as MLB SPs.

And to say 'with more Ks' as if it's some minor adjustment seems rather, well, dumb. But then again, comparing Joba and Blanton because they are both overweight is, too.

Perhaps

A Steve Trachsel pitched game moves faster than Pirate management moves their prospects.

by RDoumit41 on Jul 16, 2007 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops

...David Wells is a good comparison to Joba, aside from the K-Rates, hit rates, and pure stuff in general.

A Steve Trachsel pitched game moves faster than Pirate management moves their prospects.

by RDoumit41 on Jul 16, 2007 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comps

Race and body type are not analogous at all. While I agree with you that having a similar body to Joe Blanton does not automatically make Chamberlain a similar pitcher, I think it is silly not to acknowledge that body type is a much more important and telling data point than, say, race. Just think about it from a scouting perspective. Joba may end up posting stats that look like Tim Hudsont's (or Casey Fossum's) but how helpful would those comps be? It's a question of balancing and prioritizing various data to come up with something helpful and informative...

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on Jul 16, 2007 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Body type

would be the obvious. Think about what "Joe Blanton with more strikeouts" really means... Basically, Joe Blanton with better, less hitable, raw stuff. I don't think that's an entirely unreasonable assessment of Chamberlain. Remember that in Joe's first year out of college (he went to Kentucky, Joba went to Nebraska... both were first-rounders) he had a performance pretty similar to Chamberlain's-- well over a K/IP, a whip comfortably under 1 etc.... I mean, who would be a better big league comp? And it's no knock. He may not look great, but big Joe's working on his second excellent season in three big league tries.

As for the original question, I'm tempted to go out on a limb and say TRUE. Hughes, at first glance, didn't quite justify the hype for me in the way that guys like Felix, Liriano or Harden did. Joba was the opposite. I was expecting, well, Blanton, and was suprised at how good his stuff looked....

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on Jul 16, 2007 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Except what you're saying is essentially, "He'll be better in most useful measures than a particular mediocre pitcher whose physical build is similar."

How is that useful?

by limozeen on Jul 16, 2007 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Joe Blanton is mediocre?

by vertigo991 on Jul 16, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

blanton

You're saying otherwise?

by limozeen on Jul 16, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"mediocre" is a little harsh

ERAs in the AL of 3.53, 4.82 and, in this half-year, 3.36 for a pitcher's first three seasons in this bigs is a cut above mediocre.

obviously, the Ks are low, and he had great "luck" his first season, but I know he ended up with horrible luck in the second year, so that balances itself out. i'm not really sure what the ERA should be this year, though i imagine it's a little low, since he's only struck out 87 in 142 IP, put he has only walked 25 while eating up a pretty large chunk of innings (three CGs this year).

i'd definitely agree his "stuff" is pretty mediocre, but the results are a little better.

i do fully agree that it's one of the more absurd non-Bravesin07-initiated comparisons ever made on this website to say "Chamberlain is like Blanton, because they're both fat." you might as well say Chamberlain's like Rosie O'Donell, except male, and with better pitches.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 16, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

eh

I think 2006 shows that there's no reason to expect Blanton's mean BAA to be around .240 if his K rate is where it is. Blanton's been lucky for 2/3 of his MLB career. The results haven't been mediocre ("good" is the word I'd use), but there's no real reason to expect that to continue.

by limozeen on Jul 16, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joba

Don't knock Rosie. She has a heckuva screwball.

Also, regarding Blanton - I think that his KRate may not tell the whole story. While I will immediately profess to having never paid attention while watching him pitch, I'd be inclined to say that perhaps his low ERA's and BABIP are the product of batters making consistently poor contact off his offerings, and Blanton's reliance on his defense to keep his pitch counts down and thus, his innings up.

I do thinkt hat Blanton is a poor comp for Chamberlain, and I don't think I can quickly come up with another, but this is because I've only seen an inning of Joba. However, if what the scouting reports here and otherwise say are true, and they are consistent with his massive growth as a pitcher this year, then I think he is a blossoming ace. That being said, I don't know if I'd take him over Hughes long term. Hughes did more at younger ages, but he has also been more injury prone (even if they are flukey, I prefer pitchers who can stay on the hill). I suppose I'll wait until the end of the season to pass judgement. Hopefully, they both have great careers.

by GuyinNY on Jul 16, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he seems comparable to

Jeremy Bonderman, no?

by phantom on Jul 16, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joba comp

He is the right handed Sid Fernandez.

by Robinson Checo on Jul 16, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bonderman isn't fat

Mike Zagurski Fan Club

by Grrranderson on Jul 16, 2007 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its a pretty good comparison

go check out joe blanton's pic on MLB.com and joba's on minorleaguebaseball.com

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jul 15, 2007 11:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

so the point of scouts giving comps....

....is to help GMs find the players they're talking about when they get off the plane in an airport, then that comparison makes a lot of sense.

Seeing as the idea of comps is primarily to paint of picture of how that person plays on a baseball field, I'd say physical appearance should almost never be the primary comparison. It has RELEVANCE, as physical characteristics can set limitations and define skill patterns/career trajectories for players. Furthermore, if (and ONLY if) you have painted a picture of exactly how the player's ACTUAL baseball skills look, then it might not be bad to make the comp physically relate to the player in question, just so that the picture is more vivid.

However, falling back on a physical comp when the baseball skills don't match up is worse than useless. And it's also lazy, simply because it's the easiest part of two players for people to match up. If Joba's approach is similar to Joe's, or the armslot is the same, or their stuff is similar, or the K/BB and K/9 have mirrored each other at similar ages, by all means, let me know. But I don't think they have. They're both just fat.

by bleedjaxblue on Jul 16, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh

Strikeout rate is pretty much the single most important thing that makes a pitcher good. I'd much rather compare Chamberlain to a pitcher with a similar K rate than a pitcher with a similar weight or facial features. Blanton is a horrible comparison.

I think Jeremy Bonderman is a great comparison. Mediocre stuff Blanton? Not so much.

by limozeen on Jul 16, 2007 3:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

I think Joba may have a more dominant looking peak since he has better power stuff, but I think Hughes will have the longer and better career.

Id like to see one of these for like Verlander vs Bonderman

by Kanst42 on Jul 16, 2007 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

False

I think John is just testing us to see how much we've turned into a "what have you done for me lately" community.

Hughes is still a much, much, much better pitching prospect than Joba, despite Joba's recent success.

by guru4u on Jul 16, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

meh

its not exactly a "what have you done for me lately" kinda thing because, minus the tendinitis, chamberlain would have been a top 10 pick in last years draft...so its not like we're talking about a guy who's getting a lot of hype for the first time

however, in regard to hughes, it seems like a "what have you done for me lately" kind of deal

by nyybaseball99 on Jul 16, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a little more on joba

around the draft last year, reports had him in the low 90's, able to dial it up to the mid 90's...however since he's joined the yankees (including the HWL) he's been consistently in the mid 90's with the ability to dial it up to 99...meanwhile, he's really developed his change up (which he barely threw in the last telecasted game), so his stuff has really improved...can he sustain it? who knows

by nyybaseball99 on Jul 16, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

False

I think Joba will get injured too much to stay in the rotation for too long. Deep inside, I'm really hoping that Hughes and Chamberlain become the next Prior and Wood.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Jul 16, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hah

+1. I agree about Chamberlain and about the Prior/Wood comment. Of course, that's just my dislike for the current financial system coming through...

Phillip Hughes turning into Barbaro? Odds are that Hughes will probably be put to sleep within the next year. --Bravesin08

by Dfarth on Jul 17, 2007 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Odd is that...

Joba never had a big arm problem in the record while Yankees will never let Hughes overthrow in the early in his career. Sorry to break your hope, but you get lump of coal for your christmas stockings most likely.

About their mechanics too, Prior's arm action definetely stressed his arm. So did Wood. I don't think Joba and Hughes' mechanics are not as stressful as them.

by vertigo991 on Jul 17, 2007 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs