John's Top 12 Pitching Draft Prospects

by John Sickels on Jun 5, 2007 3:25 PM EDT in News

My Ranking of the Top Pitching Prospects for the Draft
Keep in mind that this reflects my personal opinion based on my own neural processing of available information, scouting reports, video, historical comparisons, and (in some cases with the college guys) personal observation. Your own mileage may vary a great deal. Talent and projection are the considerations here, not signability.
A longer and more detailed list will be sent to newsletter subscribers tomorrow.

David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt.
Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep HS, West Orange, NJ
Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS, Norwell, Indiana
Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State University
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS, Hudson, NC
Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS, Calhoun, GA
Nevin Griffith, RHP, Middleton HS, Tampa, FL
Dan Moskos, LHP, Clemson
Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch HS, Groton, CT
Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS, Irving, TX
Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Ecole du Versant, Gatineau, Quebec
Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt

Feel free to critique the list if you like, but I want to be honest about my opinion and not just replicate what everyone else is already saying. I rate Griffith a lot higher than most people, and I prefer high school lefties Bumgarner and Smoker to Moskos.

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Comments

Hmm

Honestly it boggles my mind that you rank Matt Harvey so low. I can't see how he could rank 9th if you're ranking is based purely on talent and projection.

Someone is going to get an absolute steal with him if they can get him signed.

by Bowser on Jun 5, 2007 3:26 PM EDT reply actions

harvey

I go back and forth on Harvey...sometimes I have him right behind Porcello, other times I worry that his mechanics are going to cause shoulder trouble and that pushes him behind a few of the others. No question about his ceiling though.

by John Sickels on Jun 5, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Parker and Beavan

I don't understand why Porcello is considered above them when both pitchers have put up better numbers.

by royalsfan7 on Jun 5, 2007 3:33 PM EDT reply actions

Re:

Because high school numbers are almost worthless when projecting pro talent. You don't care what guys did against high school players, you're projecting how their tools will enable them to excel in pro ball.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 5, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Chris Withrow & Dan Duffy

Jon,

Where do you rank these two prepsters?

DAS

by BLUEFAN on Jun 5, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

dont know

won't know until tomorrow.

by John Sickels on Jun 5, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

How good is Josh Smoker

I hear he is projected to be picked by the Braves. Is he a hard thrower?

by Bravesin07 on Jun 5, 2007 3:39 PM EDT reply actions

more of a complete package type

i think he doesn't get much credit because he doesn't throw as hard (90-92 range). I'm glad to see John ranked him as high as he did. here is the milb.com scouting report http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=smoker

by kaisertown on Jun 5, 2007 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Great another Kyle Davies

A guy who has two pitches, I'll pass

by Bravesin07 on Jun 5, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

most hs pitchers

most high school pitchers are drafted with two pitches. changeups just aren't necessary against high school competition.

by kaisertown on Jun 5, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

The MiLB.com scouting report

is misleading. Smoker actually has 6 pitches according to Baseball America. From his scouting report:

"He'll warm up with six pitches and uses them all in games, though his 91-92 mph fastball, 74-76 mph curve and low- to mid-80s split-finger fastball are his bread and butter."

While his fastball doesnt overpower guys, his curve and splitter are very good offerings from a high school kid.

by Thinkblue on Jun 5, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

That's good then

Maybe he can the left handed Tim Hudson.

by Bravesin07 on Jun 5, 2007 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Main

Do you see Main as more of an OF than P, then?

by mckeeno on Jun 5, 2007 3:40 PM EDT reply actions

p

I like him as a pitcher.

by John Sickels on Jun 5, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW...

anyone esle having trouble watching the Porcello video on minorleaguebaseball?

It's not working for me.

by SenorGato88 on Jun 5, 2007 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

I Can't See It Either

I figured I was the only one

Phillip Hughes turning into Barbaro? Odds are that Hughes will probably be put to sleep within the next year. --Bravesin08

by Dfarth on Jun 5, 2007 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

i couldn't get it to go yesterday. i just thought it might be traffic related but i gues its an milb.com problem.

by kaisertown on Jun 5, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Looks good...

...except for Bumgarner that high. I guess in the right organization, one that is really good at cleaning up a pitcher's delivery and mechanics, then he could belong there. But, for example, if he ends up in an organization that can't develop pitching, say, Kansas City, I see him flaming out, no pun intended, faster than anyone on that list. Arm strength is great, blowing low 90's gas by guys is great, but I just look at his delivery, and I don't see one, let alone two reliable secondary pitches developing any time soon. He's way too low to throw a conventional curve, and as I mentioned elsewhere, he might be better suited to some kind of split which would just bottom out.

by phuturephillies on Jun 5, 2007 5:26 PM EDT reply actions

Slider

Bumgarner will have to develop a slider down the road much like the one Randy Johnson and Andrew Miller throw. His arm slot will allow for one as Miller and Johnson have shown.

But I would put Josh Smoker over Bumgarner because Bumgarner just has a good fastball. His best offspeed pitch is about as good as Smoker's fourth best. And its not like Smoker is a soft tosser. He tops out at 94 MPH just about every start and he maintains that velocity deep into games.

by UncleBuck44 on Jun 6, 2007 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Michael Main

michael main has to be on any list of the top 12 pitching prospects in the draft. he has been hitting 97 mph with his fastball this spring and has touched 99 mph in the past. it is also said to have good movement when he gets it down in the zone, and he is said to have at least solid average command of the pitch. alan matthews said in a roundtable discussion the other day on baseballanalysts.com that his curveball is one of the best pitches in the draft and he can throw it wherever he wants. if his curveball is one of the best pitches in the draft, and we already knew his fastball was one of the best in the draft, how is he not one of the best pitching prospects? tim lincecum was discounted due to his size last year, and i think teams are making the same mistake with main. lincecum had arguably the best fastball and best curveball in last year's draft, and i think the same can be said about main this year.

by fewgoodcards on Jun 5, 2007 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Main

I like Main's upside, and I agree that he would be on my list of the top 12 pitching prospects. That said, you are higher on him than I am.

He arguably has the best velocity in this draft, but he lacks movement and deception, and he was hit hard last summer when he faced top-quality hitters. Also, i'm not sure what Mathews is talking about, because I certainly don't think Main's fastball is anywhere close to being one of the best pitches in the draft; in reality, his lack of quality, consistent breaking stuff is the main knock on him.

Another knock is his violent, max effort delivery which always scares aways scouts. Maybe he will survive with it, but his prior rotator cuff problems don't inspire much confidence.

Any prep that can reach back and hit 99 has extreme upside, and he's got a chance if he lands with the right organization, but personally I don't like the odds of Main reaching his potential. He will need to make some adjustments asap or he will get lit up in pro ball this summer. Teams are going to be sitting dead red on him, as he is a thrower and not a pitcher at this point.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 5, 2007 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoops

Change that to CURVEBALL

Also, i'm not sure what Mathews is talking about, because I certainly don't think Main's CURVEBALL is anywhere close to being one of the best pitches in the draft; in reality, his lack of quality, consistent breaking stuff is the main knock on him.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jun 5, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

here's the quote

"I would say that Harvey and Main are right there with Parker and Porcello in terms of overall stuff. Harvey's changeup is a plus pitch and he has shown great ability to spot it down and away from lefthanded hitters. Main's breaking ball is outstanding, and he has such good command of it, along with Josh Smoker's curveball, it's among the best pitches in the class."

another note that should be made is that if harvey's change is a plus pitch, he has 3 above average pitches right now as he can hit mid 90's with the heater and baseball america's scouting report said his curve is a 65 at times.

by fewgoodcards on Jun 5, 2007 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

well

on the other hand I'm sure Matthews has seen him a lot more than any of us have

by nms on Jun 6, 2007 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed for the most part

I like this list for the most part, as I'm very high on Parker, as well as Bumgarner. However, I'd like to see Beavan a little higher. Many of the scouting reports have him just as projectable with as good of stuff as anyone in the draft. Maybe I'm biased towards warm weather prospects, but it's hard to not get excited about this guy.

by natsprospects26 on Jun 5, 2007 5:43 PM EDT reply actions

No Andrew Brackam?

I mean you can make the legit case that his upside is probably higher than any pitcher on that list. Is he raw for a college pitcher yes, does he need alot of work yes, but if he goes into a organization who can really help him, watch out because this guy could be special.

by NYYLover1000 on Jun 5, 2007 5:47 PM EDT reply actions

I'd switch...

Harvey and Bumgarner, as well as Griffith and Beaven. Otherwise, it looks good.

by Thinkblue on Jun 5, 2007 5:51 PM EDT reply actions

hmm

I like Aumont more than this I think. Harvey as well. I'd have them in the top 6 ahead of Griffin and Moskos.

by limozeen on Jun 5, 2007 6:48 PM EDT reply actions

Main and Beavan

My observations about the HS pitchers are based almost exclusively on what I witnessed at the AFLAC all star game. I believe that Main and Beavan have the most upside of any HS RH pitchers. Main looks to have the most arm and is certainly the best athlete among the pitchers. In fact, I think his pitching rating suffers from the fact he is such a good OF. I also thought that Beavan had as much "stuff" overall as Smoker and was only behind Procello in that regard. I am also a little surprised Moskos dropped as far as John placed him although it is not a shock since that mirrorred the mock draft where he dropped to Cleveland at 13th. If the Tribe goes for pitching, which is the consensus but not my opinion, then I think Beavan or Main will be better long term choices than Moskos.

by sdtribefan on Jun 5, 2007 6:52 PM EDT reply actions

I agree that I think they'll go with a HS pitcher!

Hello everyone,

I agree with sdtribefan in regards to the Indians going with a HS pitcher compared to a college pitcher for three main reasons:

The strength of this draft is more in HSers, especially HS pitching, and the Indians have shown in the past that they often will go for the strength of the draft, and with the likelihood that there will still probably be a few quality HS pitchers available at #13, I'd be a little surprised if they didn't go for a HS pitcher like Beavan or Main.
The Indians' farm system has pretty good depth again, which should enable the Indians to take a "chance" on a prospect with higher upside, which usually signals a HSer, and again, due to #1, I think that's more likely to be a pitcher than a hitter.
Being that the Indians don't pick again after Round 1 until Round 4, I suspect they'll go for a prospect who has good to great upside, but also has a good chance of reaching it. While HSers are risky in terms of them reaching their potential, they have more development time than the college draftees, and being that these college pitchers have nice upside, but not something along the likes of a Prior (rare as that type of pitcher is,) that's also why I believe a HS pitcher is what the Indians will likely take with their first pick.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 5, 2007 7:02 PM EDT reply actions

not bad

The major differences I'd have are with Beavan and Bumgarner.

I really like Beavan. I understand there are mechanical concerns, but his package of command and two potential plus pitches makes him 4th or 5th on my list.

Don't like Bumgarner as much as Harvey, Moskos, Smoker, etc.

by jeck on Jun 5, 2007 7:35 PM EDT reply actions

Blake Beavan

I still like Beavan as much as any prep pitcher in the draft. He's got two plus pitches and a huge 6'7" frame. With his odd mechanics he ought to develop a decent change because of them.

by Ienpw on Jun 5, 2007 8:44 PM EDT reply actions

and no on griffith so high

i dont see any reason to place him above a lot of the guys ahead of him. Nick Teopesch and Brandon Workman are my sleepers.

by Ienpw on Jun 5, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

If I may ask, what kind of odd mechanics does

Beavan have? I haven't seen him, so I'm curious to know what these "odd mechanics" are and how much of a concern they could be long-term. Any info. would be greatly appreciated - thanks!

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 5, 2007 8:47 PM EDT reply actions

Beavan's Mechanics

Hi indiansfan,

I only saw Beavan at the AFLAC game but nothing struck me as unusual about his mechanics. I was sitting with several ML scouts who commented on nearly everything but made no comment about his mechanics. Things might have changed since then but I thought he had two plus pitches.

by sdtribefan on Jun 5, 2007 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeck also mentioned he had 2+ pitches!

Hello sdtribefan, thanks for the reply - greatly appreciated! :-)

Jeck agrees with you also; I hope the Indians have a chance to draft him.

Just curious, you said in your previous post that "it's the consensus that the Indians will go for pitching, but that's not my opinion." If I may ask, what/who do you think the Indians will go for?

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 6, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Griffith

I really can't see how he's ranked higher than those 5 guys. My sleeper is Kyle Blair... love that guy.

by albo4lyfe on Jun 5, 2007 9:02 PM EDT reply actions

Talent and projectability

If you're truly going with talent and projectability, I see no reason why David Price is ahead of Porcello.

Porcello has a chance to have mid-high 90's heat with 3 offspeed pitches.

Price is a mid-90's guy with 1 plus-plus offspeed pitch (slider) and one average pitch (change).

Rays in '08.... Free Andy Sonnanstine.

by youALREADYknow on Jun 5, 2007 9:10 PM EDT reply actions

Change

has been reported as a plus pitch by BA and John said some report it as a plus pitch. I don't know why you always call it average. With some people calling it plus and others not, I'm inclined to believe it's at least a 55 with flashes of 60. Which again tells me that he can develop it into a consistent plus pitch. The DRO has done a pretty good job teaching the change I think. Shields, Sonny, Kaz, Stokes all have plus changes or better, I see no reason Price can't develop his into a consistently plus pitch, especially with it being close already

Porcello has the higher ceiling, but Price's ceiling is also huge and he's a lot closer to the bigs. That's why he's #1. Guys with close ceilings, you take the guy who's closer to the majors every time.

by Tyler on Jun 5, 2007 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I know why Price is #1

Price is #1 for a reason in the real draft and yes he has a huge ceiling. The change thing depends on who you hear it from, but I'll even assume that it will become a plus pitch because I expect Price to spend some time with Hernandez in the next year to refine his pitches.

It still doesn't make his "potential" higher than Porcello's IMO. He's just more likely to fulfill the potential.

Rays in '08.... Free Andy Sonnanstine.

by youALREADYknow on Jun 5, 2007 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Weathers

Seems to be shooting up lists real quickly. He has to be the favorite to be the first guy from this class to make the show. I am interested to see where he ends up going. As an A's fan I would love to see Oakland draft him.

by bl on Jun 6, 2007 2:26 AM EDT reply actions

The latest

scoop on Weathers is that he will be going to SD before SF gets a chance to take him with their late first round pick. SF had at one point been thought to take him earlier but that changed and their hope is for him to be available later in the draft. Won't happen from what I'm hearing. My source would be his dad and his advisor group which is headed up by Grady Little's brother....I think his name is Matt.

by melt12 on Jun 6, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions