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Giants Postmortem

Not completely happy with my performance.  Made a mistake or two and screwed up on Fairley's value.  

Got some high-school pitchers I believe in, a couple CFs with high ceilings, and two polished college pitchers.  Just missed on a couple guys I really liked with my 1st couple picks.

Any comments, questions, etc... would be appreciated.

#10 Madison Bumgarner-I was hoping to get a shot at Parker, Heyward, or Detwiler, but it was not to be.  This pick easily could have been Harvey or Aumont, but I liked Bumgarner's easy velocity and athleticism.  Hopefully he can be taught a change to help neutralize righties.  Should I have gone in a different direction here?

#22 Corey Brown-Just missed on Mesoraco and Ahrens here.  Brown isn't a terrible consolation prize as he should stick in center and is a well-rounded offensive player.  I can understand anyone who would take Main here.  Not a huge Borbon or LaPorta fan, so they weren't really options.  Thought about Weathers, but I was pretty sure I could get better value for a fast- moving reliever later in the draft.

#29 Nevin Griffith-Burgess, Schmidt, and Fairley were considered here as well.  Was tempted by Brackman, but there were too many negatives in his total package.  I really like guys who can command and pitch off their fastball, plus Griffith is athletic and projectable.

#32 Wendell Fairley-I goofed here.  Probably coulda nabbed him at 43 and gotten Burgess, Poreda, etc...at this slot.  I do however believe in Fairley's ability and the chance he can be an offensive and defensive standout in CF.  Still a risky pick, plus I miscalculated the interest in him so not my best selection.

#43 James Simmons-I really like guys who can pitch off their fastball and Simmons personifies that criteria.  He's still 20, but should move pretty quick and provide some level of immediate security from this draft.

#51 Kyle Blair-Another pick I wish I could have back.  I like Blair's total package (fastball around 90, plus curve, projectable, good makeup, athletic) and believe in his upside, but had him rated similarily to Kentrail Davis and Kellen Kulbacki, and given the state of the Giants farm system a bat may have been better.

#164 Jonathan Holt-One of my favorite picks.  Hopefully he's the 2007 version of Joe Smith.  Another guy with great fastball command. Close to a sidearmer and has excellent control of a high-80's sinker.  Had a 60-4 K/BB ratio for U of Tampa this year.  Decent size, durable, and should be a really fast-mover.  Would have preferred Cory Gearrin because of his slider, but I'm happy with Holt despite the limited upside.

0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Good Job
I just hope Brian Sabean, Dick Tidrow and Matt Nerland do as well in the real draft.  I also hope picks 1-9 play out differently, but that was not your fault.

Not wild about Bumgarner and his almost sidearm delivery, but I would say the same thing about Aumont and Beavan.  His lefthandedness gives him the slight edge here as best player available, although I wish one of the Big 5 hitters had been there.

Corey Brown had slid right under my radar.  I had heard the name, but never really checked him out.  A guy with that much power who can play CF?  I like it!   Good pickup!

I love Griffith and don't think he's a reach at #29.  

For some reason, whenever I see the name Wendell Fairley it brings back bad memories of Arturo McDowell.  He does seem to have more power upside than McDowell.  High risk/reward pick.  Probably worth the risk since you covered yourself with the college hitter at #22.

After the two HS picks, you needed a polished college pitcher and Simmons is the quintessential polished college RHP.  Solid, if unspectacular pick.

I wouldn't give the Kyle Blair pick back.  The only player picked lower who I might have preferred was Travis Mattair and only because the Giants need hitters and he seems to have a pretty fair upside.  Blair may well be the better available player here.

Holt is another solid pick that I can't really argue with.  Had I been picking, I would have taken Blake Stouffer here just because I'm in love with his stat line and again, the Giants need hitters.  

Can someone please explain why Stouffer is not getting some respect in this draft?  I mean, the guy has just raked all year with decent power, some speed and off the charts plate discipline.  He can play several positions although maybe not too well.  Is defense his big drawback?  That doesn't seem to stop other guys.  Kind of reminds me a bit of Craig Cooper last year who was a steal, IMO, for the Pads.

Overall, I'd give you a thumbs up.  I hope the top 10 play out differently in the real draft and I hope Sabean et al do as well as you did here.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 3, 2007 8:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

top 9
I didn't believe Mills or Detwiler was making it to #10, but was hoping that one player was overdrafted so Parker or Heyward would slip.

by MPK on Jun 3, 2007 10:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brown a miss
That's WAY too early. He's got tools but he doesnt make enough contact. He got eaten alive in the CCL last summer and 62 strikeouts this spring in the Big 12. He's like Stubbs but with less tools.

The Griffith and Bumgarner picks are awesome though.

by PooNani on Jun 3, 2007 9:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not a bad comp
Didn't Brown show alot more power though?  He probably doesn't have the defensive chops of Stubbs, but I think he's a better offensive player.  The contact issues are a red flag, but the rest of his offensive game is well-rounded enough that he could get by as a .250 hitter in the majors.  He'll most likely stick in CF, so that gives him a lot more leeway offensively.

by MPK on Jun 3, 2007 10:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Brown power
Brown played for Oklahoma State - right? Their park factors are astronomical meanwhile Texas plays in a pitchers park.

http://www.boydsworld.com/data/pf2006.html

I wouldn't rely on stats to assess the power potential of Brown vs Stubbs. You'd be far better off using scouting reports.

sig: Karim Garcia posted dominant AAA stats at 19. So can we stop acting like ARL trumps all in every discussion...

by natsfan2005 on Jun 4, 2007 3:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair enough
Just going on reports BA seems more confident in Brown's hit tool.  They make a point in Stubbs' 2006 write-up to say that "scouts believe his bat is far from a sure thing".

by MPK on Jun 4, 2007 4:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re:
While BA's scouting report doesn't go out of it's way to directly say scouts doubt Brown's bat, I'm sure there are those that do. When this quote is in your writeup "batted just .192 with 57 whiffs in 41 games in the Cape Cod League" I'm sure you've got plenty of doubters out there.
sig: Karim Garcia posted dominant AAA stats at 19. So can we stop acting like ARL trumps all in every discussion...

by natsfan2005 on Jun 4, 2007 5:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LaPorta
I would have strongly preferred a pitcher or LaPorta to Brown.

LaPorta is being dismissed by many due to his injury marred 2006. But look at these stats:

.402/.582/.817

AB: 169
BB: 55
SO: 16
HR: 20
HBP: 19

http://www.gatorzone.com/baseball/stats.php

Yep, that's right. More Home Runs that strikeouts.

sig: Karim Garcia posted dominant AAA stats at 19. So can we stop acting like ARL trumps all in every discussion...

by natsfan2005 on Jun 4, 2007 5:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're probably right...
LaPorta at 22 is making more sense because I can probably get Brown at 29, Griffith at 32, Fairley at 43, and Blair or whoever at 51.  

My problem with LaPorta was an aversion to drafting DH-types for an NL team, but he was the best bat left and I probably shoulda popped him there.  

To tell you the truth I was really targeting Mesoraco/Ahrens and wasn't too crazy about any of my backup options.

by MPK on Jun 4, 2007 6:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW...
I thought your draft was one of the best out there. Gotta love those first three picks & I liked Blair a little better than Withrow @ 52, but you nabbed him right before me!

by ConorGlassey on Jun 3, 2007 9:27 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice draft
Excellent timing with the Griffin pick,it seems like people were flying off the board earlier than expected.  

I can't quibble with Fairley.  There are players you like who aren't going to make it until your next pick and you overdraft them.  Fairley could be like Tyler Colvin was to the Cubs last year.  A good player who isn't going to make it till your next pick a couple rounds later.

Simmons and Holt are players the Giants are good at getting in the later rounds as undrafted free agents so those were the only two I just didn't like.

Bumgarner was the right choice for what was left and he's athletic and that's a word the Giants keep throwing around in these days leading up to the draft.

All in all you did very good in what I hope is not a scenario find themselves in on draft day with all the top players being gone before 10.

by Derelict on Jun 3, 2007 11:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i personally
would have loved to have gotten schmidt with pick 29.

he is 6-5 220 left hander. here is a scouting report on him:

"Schmidt was last year's SEC pitcher of the year, which is a pretty big honor given the conference he pitches in, not to mention he was a sophomore. He enjoyed success immediately upon stepping onto Arkansas' campus, being named a freshman All-American. Schmidt has stuff and size for a lefty that you just don't find very often, unless you're looking at some of the other talented southpaws available for the 2007 draft. He pitches comfortably in the 88-92 range and also mixes in a solid slider and changeup, giving him a proven, three-pitch repertoire. He has the size to sustain long innings while maintaining his velocity, and the natural pitching moxie to get batters out when he doesn't have his best stuff."

it is also reported that the giants had scouts, and i think even brian sabean at Schmidt's last SEC tournament outing (9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 6 K versus Alabama). he is not necessarily a number one or number two pitcher, but i think he could be a solid number three guy who can give you innings and be a dependable part of the rotation. i wouldnt mind the giants drafting him at 29 or 32.

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Jun 3, 2007 11:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

question
what do you guys think about matt dominguez?? i personally drafted him at number 15 (as the reds scouting director)...if the real draft turned out as it did with picks 1-9, what about the giants drafting dominguez??

i know he doesnt have some of the outstanding skills as moustakas or vitters but he is a very good athlete. i like that he seems disciplined and makes consistent hard contact driving the ball to all parts of the field. the scouting report says that his strength is his "Good solid bat with power potential."  And I also like that "he's considered to be one of the better defensive third baseman to come out of a draft in a long time."

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=dominguez

I would personally really be fine if the giants could nab him at 10 if the draft played out as it did. He seems just like a solid baseball player who has the potential for making some all star games.

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Jun 4, 2007 12:01 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hitting
I was thinking something similar.  Since I'm now wild about Bumgarner, and IMO, the Giants need to stock up on hitters, I wouldn't be at all opposed to taking a Dominguez or LaPorta a tad early and then backing it up with Brown.  Since pitching is not an immediate need, I would be happy with Griffith, Blair and Simmons as the pitching draftees with Fairley as the high risk/reward hitter.  I want hitters so bad I might even be tempted to drop Blair in favor of Mattais. That would be a 4-2 hitter/pitcher ratio with the Big 6 which is what I think would be ideal.  Lastly, I'm serious about Blake Stouffer at #164 if he's still on the board.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 4, 2007 1:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Todd Frazier
I like the Brown pick at #22 but Frazier might be safer if he's still on board there.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 4, 2007 1:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, a hitter
Giants really, REALLY, need position prospects, and unless a no-brainer pitcher is available, like Lincecum was last year, I think the Giants should have gone for a hitter.

I was wondering why Dominguez wasn't picked either, MPK, at #10.  Even LaPorta as DrB suggested.  They seem to be relatively strong hitter prospects from what I've read.

Nice job, though.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 4, 2007 11:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well
taking Dominguez at number 10 isnt even really "reaching." BA's latest draft tracker has Dominguez at number 13. i really think that the sf giants need to consider him.  he seems like he will be a solid offensive player who will provide good defense at 3B as well.
Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Jun 4, 2007 12:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fairley
I like the Fairley pick.  Probably would have popped LaPorta or Todd Frazier instead of Brown though, if you were going to try to ensure at least one productive player from this draft.

by limozeen on Jun 4, 2007 12:11 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

your draft
was awesome

by bmxstreetrider86 on Jun 4, 2007 12:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not to take away from his efforts
but having so many high picks helps that a lot

by nms on Jun 4, 2007 1:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah
Kinda why I chose the Giants.  Last two years I was the Braves SD.

by MPK on Jun 4, 2007 2:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Giants
Assume the Giants in real life get a high school arm with the 10th overall pick.  If LaPorta is there at 22 and Frazier is there at 29, do you take both?

I say yes.  I tend to think those two will be in the top four most productive offensive players in this draft (Wieters and Vitters).

by limozeen on Jun 4, 2007 5:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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