Prospect Retro: Jeremy Guthrie

by John Sickels on Jun 22, 2007 11:17 AM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

Jeremy Guthrie was drafted by the Indians in the first round in 2002, out of Stanford. He'd gone 13-2, 2.52 in 20 starts in college, with a 136/36 K/BB in 157 innings. He signed late but made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League. Already 23, he was expected to make rapid progress due to his low-to-mid-90s fastball, curve, slider, and changeup, all of them potentially above average pitches. His command was very good in college. I gave him a Grade B in the 2003 book but expected him to exceed that once he got some pro experience under his belt.

Guthrie opened 2003 in Double-A and did well, going 6-2, 1.44 in 62.2 innings. However, his K/BB ratio was just 35/14...a very low strikeout rate. Promoted to Triple-A, he was blasted for Buffalo, going 4-9, 6.52 in 18 starts. I saw him pitch late in the season. . .it was very strange. He was hitting 93-94 MPH, and his breaking stuff had a lot of movement, but he wasn't fooling anyone. It was hard to understand how a pitcher with such good stuff could look so poor, especially since he threw strikes. Command wasn't the problem. I gave him a Grade C+ in the '04 book.

Guthrie began '04 in Triple-A and was so horrible (7.91 ERA in four starts with terrible peripherals) that he was sent back to Double-A. He did better there, going 8-8, 4.21 with a 94/42 K/BB in 130 innings. He also made a few appearances for the Indians, posting a 4.63 ERA in six games. There was still no clear indication of what his problem was. He was hitting 93-95 MPH regularly. His breaking stuff still looked good. There was no obvious sign that he was tipping his pitches, but he did tend to elevate things too high in the strike zone at times, and scouts were becoming concerned that his struggles were hurting his confidence. I gave him a Grade C in the '05 book.

Guthrie spent most of '05 in Triple-A. He went 12-10, 5.08 with a 100/49 K/BB in 136 innings, giving up 152 hits. By this point I was getting very skeptical. In one start I saw he was hitting just 90 MPH with his fastball and his breaking stuff looked flat. I rated him as a Grade C and left him out of the '06 book entirely.

I put him back in the 2007 book after he went 9-5, 3.14 with an 88/48 K/BB in 123 innings for Buffalo. But I rated him as a Grade C. His stuff was back up into the low-to-mid-90s and his breaking stuff had more bite again. But he was now 27 years old, and kept getting hit hard in the majors, with a 6.98 mark in 19 innings last year. I wrote that a change of scenery and a switch to relief would be the only things that would save his career.

Guthrie got the change of scenery and so far he's been quite a revelation for the Orioles: 2.42 ERA in 81.2 innings with a 56/14 K/BB. He's been a bit hit-lucky I think, giving up just 59 hits, but he's pitching genuinely well and is now living up to the expectations generated back in his Stanford days. He's pitching the best ball of his career right now. What's the explanation? He's always had the stuff. I think it was a matter of confidence and location, and clearing his mental and emotional palate after his struggles in Cleveland. If he continues to throw quality strikes, I think it's sustainable.

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The explanation?

Leo Mazzone.

by aCone419 on Jun 22, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He needed a change of scenery

and got a gift in that Mazzone became his pithcing coach.

From my observations, in 2006 his location was about 4-6 inches higher in the zone than this year. Why? Because I believe that his fastball has more run/sink and slider is biting something fierce. As I wrote in the diary about Guthrie, I think he is pitching like Kevin Brown circa FLA/SD minus about 3-4 MPH. His "stuff" certainly looks like a dominant pitcher.

His body of work is sustainable, but perhaps not to the elite level it is today. I see him settling in as a solid #3 with some #2 years in him.

by So Cal Bob on Jun 22, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mazzone

some guys mesh with mazzone, some don't (bruce chen's career was basically torpedoed by the fact that he couldn't get along with mazzone). it seems, though, that when it's a good fit, it's a really good fit.

i do think we'll see guthrie come back to earth somewhat. but he is a good pitcher now and should be at least average going forward.

by jpahk on Jun 22, 2007 5:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Guts

In addition to having command of 4 above-average pitches, Guthrie is also a smart guy with a solid work ethic. Exactly the sort of guy Mazzone can help.

In retrospect, the missionary work combined with his ML contract demands in Cleveland probably were partially to blame for his poor showings there. He wasn't ready to be advanced as rapidly as his age/contract dictated, and once he lost his confidence and started getting bounced around, it affected his comfort-level.

Kudos to Baltimore (Trembley, Mazzone, etc.) for recognizing his talent and harnessing it. When he's on, he's a truly special pitcher to watch.

by Yakker on Jun 22, 2007 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed - if the Indians wouldn't have had to

sign him to a ML contract as Boras wanted, I think the Indians would have been able to option him through 2007, maybe even 2008 - not sure on that, but they certainly would have had more time with him and could have taken it a little more slowly with him.

I know one of the Indians' officials at the time (2005 or 2006) - Shapiro or Farrell, I think - said that Jeremy wasn't as "advanced" as they thought he was when they drafted him out of Stanford, so maybe with some extra development time, he could have had similar or close to similar success with Cleveland, but the lack of development time certainly didn't help, though maybe Guthrie never would have developed to this extent for Cleveland even with extra time if Mazzone's instruction is the main reason behind Guthrie's emergence (and it's presumed Mazzone is at least part of the reason; the question is, is Mazzone the main reason Guthrie is now the pitcher he is, or was it just leaving the high expectations behind in Cleveland that was the main reason for his emergence - i.e. could he have developed like this elsewhere, say in Atlanta, Minnesota, Seattle, etc.? Just wondering.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 22, 2007 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Minnesota yes, Seattle no, Atlanta...

...who knows?

I think the "Mazzone effect" as it relates to JG is really just a matter of getting him comfortable in his stuff, and letting his natural ability go from there.

Mazzone doesn't usually take lousy pitchers with poor stuff and make them good. He takes decent, or above-average pitchers with one problem--wild command, over-thinking, etc.--and gets them back to basics, allowing their talent to shine through. I've always found it pretty funny that one of the best pitching coaches of this era spends most of his simply undoing years of coaching and getting pitchers back to what they're comfortable with. Mazzone's two mantras are "keep it simple" and "establish the outside corner."

by Yakker on Jun 23, 2007 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

How many pitchers are that horrible in the minors, both in terms of peripherals and runs allowed, and go on to not only have careers in the majors, but also excel. Say Guthrie establishes himself as a solid #2-3 starter, how big of an anomaly is he?

by Harold Baines on Jun 22, 2007 9:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

David Cone

Had rather pedestrian minor league numbers

by mtk52983 on Jun 24, 2007 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hit luck

Guthrie has been hit lucky so far, giving up (by my spreadsheet) about nine hits fewer than expected and "deserving" of a WHIP just over 1. Still pretty good. I'd love to know what Mazzone told him to do differently; very interesting that he's working lower in the zone this year.

by whichthat on Jun 23, 2007 3:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Question

Of course, "hit-lucky" was exactly what people called Jorge Sosa in his career year with the Braves.

I've seen studies that suggest that certain kinds of pitchers can succeed over time with low BABIP/hit rates. For example knuckleballers like Wakefield and guys with sick curveballs like Zito (and maybe Rich Hill) have consistently posted low BABIPs year after year.

It makes me wonder: Is there something in Leo's tutelage/approach that allows his guys to induce more weakly-hit balls?

by Yakker on Jun 23, 2007 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sosa

And since Sosa's ERA rose by three runs the next year, I'd say they might have had a point.

by whichthat on Jun 24, 2007 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeremy Guthrie 2.0

The only question I have concerning his amazing run of 9 starts, is where the "new" JG came from. I've read through his prospect reports, and most describe his stuff as low to mid 90's with good command. However, after watching all of his starts this year, I don't think those reports do him any justice. The facts is, JG 2.0 is actually mid to upper 90's with outstanding command AND movement. His 2 seamer is 93-95 and his 4 seamer is 96-98 (yes, he's touched 98 a few times each game). So, is the new velocity a result of working with Mazzone? Or, is it case of confidence adding a few ticks to his mph? I know Mazzone is the best in the biz (and probably deserves a spot in the HOF), but does he routinely add this type of velocity to his star pupils? Also, after watching his latest start (9K's in 8IP), it wouldn't surprise me if you see an increase in his K rate going forward. He was throwing more 4 seamers, which in turn led to less groundballs and more K's. Take a look at his GB:FB rates this year, the 6/20 start really stands out:

6/20 - 5:11
6/14 - 11:7
6/9 - 12:8
6/3 - 15:4
5/29 - 7:7
5/24 - 7:10
5/19 - 6:4
5/13 - 14:6
5/8 - 10:6

If you're looking for a good comp, I still believe Roy Halladay is the most similar. Both throw heavy sinking fastballs, with outstanding command, and lowish K rates. In fact, Halladay's K rate is slightly below JG's right now.

Halladay JG 2.0

IP 90.1 IP 81.2
BB 15 BB 14
K 58 K 56

by ftheyankees on Jun 23, 2007 6:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

6/20 start

Was at Petco, I believe. Wouldn't surprise me at all if his gameplan was high FBs against the swing-happy Pads lineup, since the park would hold most mistakes.

by Yakker on Jun 23, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JG

Like John said, a change of scenery and a move to the 'pen really helped Jeremy Guthrie ressurect his career. Currently, he is 4-1 with a 2.42 ERA. I look for him to keep this numbers up right where they are and so far, in my opinion, he has been the Orioles most reliable reliever.

With Tejada now on the 15-day DL, the pitching is going to really have to step up and shut down the opposition. Quite frankly, the Orioles are just not getting runs these days, with a 4.28 Runs Per Game rating. Only Kansas City (4.19) and Chicago (4.14), have worse Runs Per Game rating. Which means Guthrie really has to step it up when he gets put in the game and throw quality innings for his ballclub.

by Abbath on Jun 23, 2007 9:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reliever?

Abbath,

You do realize he's actually a starter, right?

by ftheyankees on Jun 23, 2007 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought he was but...

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bal

The O's Depth Chart shows him as a reliever and in probable pichers it shows him as a starter, so I'm confused.

But I though he was a starter.

by Abbath on Jun 23, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Started season

as an RP, switched to starting about 2 months ago.

by Yakker on Jun 24, 2007 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay

Okay thanks for the information.

by Abbath on Jun 24, 2007 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guthrie

I saw him in Spring Training with the Indians two years ago, and aside from his then-herky-jerky delivery I really wondered why the guy never caught on in the bigs. I've heard from many people that his delivery is much smoother now, which bodes well for his continued success.

Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie...who'd have thought two years ago that they'd be on pace for a 30/30 season and a 2.42 ERA, .89 WHIP season, respectively?

by limozeen on Jun 23, 2007 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Indians' FO, among many others, did not

think so, and based on the Minor League evidence, I can see why they came to those conclusions. Who would have thought they would be doing what they are doing now?

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 24, 2007 1:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Quibble

Not sure about the "many others" part, as I think only 2 teams had a shot at JG ahead of Baltimore, but your main point is still quite valid.

by Yakker on Jun 24, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think another question is

if the Baltimore Orioles decide to (just hypothetically) trade Guthrie while his stock is high, will he go on to another team and succeed being away from Mazzone?

We've seen guys like Jaret Wright reportedly learn how to pitch more effectively under Mazzone's tutelage and then go on to another team only to falter.

by SudsMcDuff on Jun 24, 2007 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs