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Comparison

I want to get your opinions about something.

Here is the link to the Minor League Baseball scouting report about Phillipe Aumont. Please watch his video.

Now, here is a link to the scouting report about Florida high school pitcher Nevin Griffith. Please watch the video.

Is it just me, or does Griffith look better in his video than Aumont looks in his? To my eye at least, Nevin looks smoother and looser on the mound...his delivery looks better to me intuitively. He doens't throw quite as hard but his velocity is still plenty and I like his breaking ball.

I'm not saying anything negative about Aumont, he looks great too. But is Griffith underrated? Baseball America has him as a possible supplemental pick, but frankly I wouldn't be afraid to pop Griffith in the later half of the first round. Am I nuts? What do the pitching experts around here think?

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Not that surprising...
Aumont is 5 inches taller and throws harder.  Its not that surprising that he's projected to go significantly higher.  The separating point when it comes to HS pitchers in this draft (and most drafts) is projectability and potential.  You mentioned Aumont, but how about Bumgarner(sp)?  From what I've read he only recently started throwing breaking balls and is a huge project, but because he's a 6'5 lefty (with a projectable frame) and a fastball that sits in the mid 90's he's projected to go higher than several more polished HS pitchers.

by metafour on Jun 2, 2007 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

He was talking about Bumgarner
when referring to the 6'5" lefty
yanksandmore.blogspot.com check it out

by lemonjello on Jun 2, 2007 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was talking about Bumgarner...
I was talking about Madison Bumgarner who despite having very little secondary stuff is projected as a 1st round pick because he's a 6'5 LHP with a mid 90's fastball.  There are several HS pitchers who I'd say are better PITCHERS right now (with way more polish) than Bumgarner but are projected to go lower because of Bumgarner's perceived "potential."

by metafour on Jun 2, 2007 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't look I look folish...
I read it twice & still missed the Bumgardner point.
-peter

by PeterF on Jun 3, 2007 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Aumont...
I've never been a fan of him.

But you rarely find me a fan of taller pitchers...

I like Griffith's mechanics after a specific point, but I'm thinking his ridiculously long arms are messing with my perception there. He definitely looks like one of the more impressive arms I've seen in this pretty impressive HS draft.

by SenorGato88 on Jun 2, 2007 4:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Aumont vs Griffith
Aumont's arm action is more compact, but his arm slot will make it more difficult for him to throw strikes and a consistent breaking pitch.

Griffith's action is pretty long, but he doesnt seem to have any problems repeating his delivery and is very athletic. I think he's good enough to go in the 21-30 range and should be a very good pick in the supplemental round.

by Thinkblue on Jun 2, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

I pretty much agree
with Thinkblue's take here. I'd also add that Aumont seemed to have some problems repeating his delivery, although that's probably due to his relative lack of experience and (I guess) it will be fixable.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Jun 3, 2007 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe,...
But I find that Aumont hides the ball better than Griffith. It could be the camera angle, but I find it very easy to pick up the ball from Griffith. It's alittle tougher to do against Aumont.

by parrot11 on Jun 2, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Griffith shows the ball
That was the first thing that jumped out at me too, but the ball disappears from sight again before he releases it. So I'm not sure if it makes a difference.

Regardless, that's something I think a team could fix if it's a problem.

by jeck on Jun 2, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

ditto...
Griffen is so long-armed in his delivery, he shows the ball to the hitter... Amount hides it better. That said, Griffen does look smoother, less violent.

You know what though, when you watch their deliveries from the side, Amount looks better and Griffen's delivery looks funky...

-peter

by PeterF on Jun 2, 2007 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aumont's
arm looks very "whippy" to me.  Looks like a lot of the energy comes right from his arm - I didn't like it.  Griffith's delivery looky much more fluid and balanced to me.
If Clemens and Smoltz face off in a deciding Game 7, we could witness the perfect storm of nonsensical comments from Bravesin07 and NYYLover1000 - gatling

by slurve on Jun 2, 2007 4:40 PM EDT reply actions  

*looks
not "looky"
If Clemens and Smoltz face off in a deciding Game 7, we could witness the perfect storm of nonsensical comments from Bravesin07 and NYYLover1000 - gatling

by slurve on Jun 2, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Griffith
I've been a fan of Griffith since I saw that youtube video of him facing Burgess back in April or so.
He has good mechanics and has big time heat.  His breaking ball has the potential to be a dominant pitch.

I'd be happy if the Cardinals took him at 36.

by UncleBuck44 on Jun 2, 2007 4:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Well....
...Griffith looks better b/c he is more polished, but Aumont is said to have a big upside. He obviously throws hard, but his delivery and pitches are all over the place in that video.
I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on Jun 2, 2007 5:14 PM EDT reply actions  

My Take
I'm not an expert in pitching mechanics by any means, but these are my observations:

Like several other tall pithers in this draft including Brackman, Beavan Bumgarner and even Porcello, Aumont largely negates his height advantage with a  low arm angle.  Watch Aumont.  He never gets his hand above his ear.  The other thing I notice about him that is similar to the other pitchers I mentioned is he never extends his arm.  He just brings his hand back behind his ear and then kind of slings the ball.  Does that protect his shoulder, or does it compensate for a weak shoulder?  Of all of the great HOF caliber pitchers I can think of, only RJ slings the ball like that.  Everyone else is over-the-top.  I guess RJ proves that it can be done, but is he just a freak of nature?

Over-the-top deliveries give a better dowward plane to the fastball and allow for better downward break on the curve and slider.  Also, alternative secondary pitches like the splitter and knuckle curve almost have to be delivered from over-the-top.

Griffith appears to be basically stronger, more athletic.  He has a higher arm slot.  He gets fantastic extension.  I'm picking up from other comments that he might need some work on using his legs and meshing his leg work with his delivery, but that seems a lot more teachable to me than completely reworking Aumont's arm slot.  Again, I wonder if Griffith's extension and arm slot signify a stronger shoulder or does it expose his shoulder to injury?  If an over-the-top delivery is riskier for the shoulder, how come so many HOF caliber pitchers with long careers use it and not get injured?

In short, I love what I see of Nevin Griffith and would be ecstatic if the Giants took him late first or early supplemental round.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 2, 2007 5:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Addendum
Looking at Griffith's video again, he is not quite over-the-top, but his hand does get a couple of inches about the top of his cap.  It also looks like it would be much easier to elevate his angle than it would be for Aumont, who looks that it's his current delivery or nothing.

I'm not sure Aumont is really 5 inches taller.  Griffith is listed at 6'2" in the milb.com scouting report, but he looks taller and I've seen him listed at 6'4" in other references.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 2, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well...
because most HOFers and pitchers in general are usually high 3/4s or something around there.

by SenorGato88 on Jun 2, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah
but didn't Aumont look a little lower than normal to you?  He did to me, but when you get that amatuer camera work, it can be hard to tell some times.  I can't put my finger on it exactly, but it sure looks like Aumont's arm action could lead to some problems for him.  I also don't know how correctable this is for him in particular, but it just loks "intuitively" bad to me as John would say.
If Clemens and Smoltz face off in a deciding Game 7, we could witness the perfect storm of nonsensical comments from Bravesin07 and NYYLover1000 - gatling

by slurve on Jun 2, 2007 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh no...
I completely agree on Aumont and his arm slot. I don't like it at all. I don't like that it kind of negates his height, his breaking ball is going to be inconsistent, and so on.

I was addressing his belief that most HOFers are overhand pitchers. They're more over the top than Aumont, but few are straight over the top guys.

by SenorGato88 on Jun 2, 2007 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

As a giants fan I
agree with DrBGiantsfan i too would be estatic if the Giants took him in the supplemental or even as high as #22 I like him a whole lot well i guess the cats out of the bag becuase thats who I was going to take with the angels oh well.

by bartonboi on Jun 2, 2007 5:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Griffith
I like Griffith more than Aumont, and I like him as well as a few of the other highly thought of guys, so personally I would consider Griffith underrated.  
Aumont may also be overrated though, this trend by the scouts to find guys that are 8ft tall and think that means they have unlimited upside is dumb.  
There are alot more "short" dominant pitchers in MLB than there are 6"7 NBA small forward types.  This new obsession with height is so over valued, it makes no sense.  Take Brackman as another example, if he was 6"2 he wouldn't even sniff the top half of the first round this year, maybe not even round 1.  But say 6"10 and the scouts start falling all over themselves.  

by GoldenSpikes24 on Jun 2, 2007 5:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Meh.
Don't know about that.  Tall pitchers with long arms can have trouble repeating their delivery - all scouts know this.  The problem can be two-fold - inconsistant results as well as injury concerns.
If Clemens and Smoltz face off in a deciding Game 7, we could witness the perfect storm of nonsensical comments from Bravesin07 and NYYLover1000 - gatling

by slurve on Jun 2, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks John
for blowing the cover off the guy I want the Mets to take at 42!

by Peter North on Jun 2, 2007 6:19 PM EDT reply actions  

questions
I don't count as one of the pitching experts you were talking about, but I have some questions for them:

From what I understand, mechanics can be changed.  But are they generally only altered when it interferes with a players chance at good health?

I agree that Griffith's very smooth in his arm motion, much less stressful looking on his shoulder than Aumont.  (But from the side shots on Aumont he has some that look very fluid, and some that look herky-jerky...I wonder what the pitches are)

So on Griffith I notice:

  • His right arms loop doesn't start going straight back, it goes toward the first base side and then back around his head and down.  My concern is that it pulls his shoulder in too many directions and could injure it.  Is this a motion that would be cause for concern?  One that would need to be changed?  Or is it under control?
  • The side shots don't look very consistent, he lunges longer at times than others (is this useful in any way? does that effect his control?
  • Also from the side shot, his left knee seems to snap straight as he throws.  When I simulate this is feels stressed, is this a cause for concern or proper mechanics to generate power?  I also noticed this in Aumonts side shots, but only in the first two, the rest of them he seems to keep his knee a little bent when he snaps.

by phiago on Jun 2, 2007 6:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Griffith
I've been trumpeting Griffith for a little while now. Love his delivery, he already has a ton of poise and mound presence, and he's still projectable.

by phuturephillies on Jun 2, 2007 7:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Griffin
Once he breaks his hands he really reaches back in a similar manner to Jered Weaver.  This causes more stress on the bicep and has caused Weaver biceps tendonitis repeatedly over the years.  Aumont doesn't maximize his physical tools but I still prefer him to Griffin.

by riktermiller on Jun 2, 2007 9:12 PM EDT reply actions  

My opinion
Intuitively I like Aumont over Griffith.  Aumont looks more compact in his delivery and releases at a higher percentage of his stride length.  I think he has a delivery that with some minor work can be repeatable.  Griffith looks extrememly raw to me with a dead front side.    His glove actually never gets above his waist in several deliveries causing him to release earlier than I would like.  He has alot going which to me signals a guy that will have trouble repeating his delivery, although he does appear athletic.

Aumont's fastball movement was noticeable in the video, Griffith I didn't see at all.  Aumont was not consistent with his breaking ball on the couple they show, but he did flash a pretty tight one early in the video.  Griffith's was an early breaker.  Not that this can't be tightened up but I think Aumont's breaking ball is ahead of Griffith's at this point.

Personally, I think too many people focus on arm action and arm angle at release.  The last ditch adjustment mechanically is to start screwing with arm slot and release point.  I would certainly not sacrifice the obvious movement Aumont has to get his arm up to "take advantage of his heighth".  

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Jun 3, 2007 1:24 AM EDT reply actions  

I certianly agree
You dont see anybody doing that with say, Jake Peavy or David Cone, for instance.

I do think the projectability thing is overated however, at least regarding these 2. I see 2 pitchers with nice size and nice arms but, I too like Aumonts delivery better. I fel like Aumonts super long arm action is EXTEMELY risky without any real decelaration of the arm after release.

Not that I dont like him though. he has a great arm and looks like a lot of short relievers pitching today which is a good possibilty he could end as if he has success and stays healthy. Just a feeling from the clip though...I like Aumonts arm strength and I even like the arm angle. He is going to be tough to hit.

casedog

by casejud on Jun 3, 2007 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Opps
I meant Griffith's arm action is risky
casedog

by casejud on Jun 3, 2007 1:45 AM EDT reply actions  

For what it's worth...
Aumont appears to be much more intimidating than Griffith. As smooth as Griffith's delivery is, I can see a batter digging in against him whereas the same hitter might be worried about his personal safety when facing Aumont.

by kcdaren on Jun 3, 2007 6:24 AM EDT reply actions  

My thoughts
I like Griffith, but not as much as Aumont. What I see in Griffith's delivery is an overreliance on arm speed and too little leg drive. He's tall and fall, which means that 92-93 is almost all arm. Add the awkward reach-back (as phiago and riktermiller pointed out) toward first base with that little arm roll seems both unnecessary and dangerous in the long-term. In short, Griffith has more moving parts to generate less velocity. I'd like to see more before judging his command vs. Aumont's.

I am not a huge fan of Aumont's mechanics, but the fact that he stays so compact tells me that an organization can tinker with his delivery a bit without losing velocity or hurting his command. I'd have him ditch the almost-stretch setup he starts with and go to a short step-back before driving everything toward the plate. This should give the entire delivery more balance and ultimately will raise his arm slot by an inch, maybe two because of where his legs are underneath him. It might even raise his velocity 1-2 mph once muscle memory kicks in.

by ToddyBaseball on Jun 3, 2007 1:50 PM EDT reply actions  

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