Draft Thoughts
I'll have more of these later.
Best Value Pick: Jason Heyward at 14. I think he's an outstanding prospect and right up there with Moustakas and Vitters...I like him a bit better overall actually. Getting him at 14 is a real coup for the Braves.
Worst Value Pick: I hate to say this, but I think Ben Revere would have been there in the second round for the Twins. I don't like second-guessing Mike Radcliff, who is probably the best in the business, so I'll keep an open mind about this, but on paper at least it looks strange.
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48 comments
Comments
Heyward
by Bravesin07 on Jun 10, 2007 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Heyward
by was385 on Jun 10, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta agree....
by SenorGato88 on Jun 10, 2007 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Giants Thoughts
What made me feel a bit better is the number of hitters with power potential they took in the later rounds:
Andy D'Alessio from Clemson looks like a legitimate power threat. Not sure why you would take a Steven Edlefsen or John King ahead of Andy, but glad he was still around at #18.
Michael Ambort, taken at #6 from Lamar, will probably need to find a position to play other than catcher, but he's got some power and is a switch hitter to boot.
Chad Rothford, at 6'5", 250 lbs from Oral Roberts is another switch hitting big man with decent power numbers. Can he make contact in the pros?
Phil Disher, another catcher from South Carolina who may need to find another position, slugged .599 with 15 HR's
Jack Rye, of FSU, led a good hitting team in OBP and SLG% two years in a row. A LH bat not sure why he fell to round 46. As a Jr, he could go back to school, but not sure what he could to do boost his stock at this point.
Lastly, the biggest sleeper pick of all may be 6'4", 225 lb Mike Lobey of Augustana College in South Dakota(isn't that where Lyle Alzado went to school?). Lobey is a LH hitting OF who went .405/.490/.718 and moves well enough to steal 6 bases. Sounds like Beau Mills lite?
Anyway, if 1 or 2 of these later round boppers pan out, this could end up being an epically great draft for the Giants if they can also sign all the first and supplemental round HS kids.
by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 10, 2007 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Giants' Draft
I would be interested in John's thoughts on Fairley. He doesn't sound too different from Heyward, whom John raves about, except being more raw. Fairley may have a bit less power potential but more defensive upside. There is the character question, but the Giants surely know about that, and judging by how they are trying to groom Villalona on and, just as importantly, off the field, character must be something they feel is important and in Fairley's case, manageable.
So a potential Carl Crawford type of player along with a high ceiling prep lefty, polished prep righty, and promising top of the order 2nd baseman (Noonan) may not be too bad of a haul in the top 32 picks. Or am I just grabbing at straws?
by baseballjunkie on Jun 11, 2007 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giants supplemental
by Kanst42 on Jun 11, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
signability
by kaisertown on Jun 11, 2007 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
by mtk52983 on Jun 11, 2007 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Further review of Giants draft
Highschool power lefties are a rare commodity and Bumgarner was clearly the best of that group. He would make a nice compliment to the finesse lefty Zito in the (hopefully) not too distant future.
Even though it is thought that the Giants will groom Alderson as a starter, scouts see him more as a closer, and if he fulfills his potential in that role and advances to the bigs quickly I think that could be a welcomed change for Giants fans, who have had to endure a string of closers who were either averse to throwing strikes or were really just set up men.
And like DrB, the Noonan pick is growing on me also, since he had been highly regarded, with a highwater prediction of #16 to Toronto.
So adding Fairley and Noonan to the current stable of prospects in the lower minors means the Giants organizational plan of developing speed&defense players is well underway. It could represent quite a refreshing and exciting change for a team that has for too long featured a station to station offense that goes only as far as Barry can carry them.
by baseballjunkie on Jun 14, 2007 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
slepper
Brad Emaus, 11th round, Toronto
Danny Lehman, pick 272, Minnesota
Tyler Henley, pick 262, St. Louis
James McOwen, pick 195, Seattle
Jason Monti, pick 775, Toronto
Matt Tucker, pick 939, Baltimore
Cole Cook, pick 1090, Seattle
Phil Disher, pick, 1331, San Francisco
by Ludacrispat26 on Jun 10, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
dennis dixon
by was385 on Jun 10, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
College QB's
by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 10, 2007 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with both
My favorite sleeper is Adam Mills (Boston - 264). 142 IP, 141 K, 27 BB, 1 HR allowed. I know UNC-Charlotte isn't a powerhouse and he has question marks, but I still think this is good value for the 8th round.
by Andrew Thurmond on Jun 10, 2007 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ehh
by Kanst42 on Jun 10, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mills
But I would also be shocked if he ever made the major leagues, and I think he went about where he should have in the draft.
by FI on Jun 11, 2007 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Value pick
by SBcaptain2 on Jun 10, 2007 6:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sign
by KaoticKlown on Jun 10, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he signs then I'd agree with you
by mtk52983 on Jun 10, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Porcello's Value
I think if you don't go for the potential reward due to the risk involved, you wind up with middling teams.
by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Signs
by Metty5 on Jun 10, 2007 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by Bowser on Jun 11, 2007 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could look REALLY bad here
So I think Porcello is a value pick even if he costs in the $10 million range. You would rather have a year of Kevin Millwood? :)
Again, I could look REALLY bad here. But no risk, no reward.
I just had this horrible thought fly through my mind that Porcello DOESN'T sign then has his arm ruined in college. Just a horrible thought, nothing more.
But a possible reason for Porcello to sign rather than go to college.
by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if your ignoring signability
by kaisertown on Jun 10, 2007 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Worst Value
by baseballgg24 on Jun 10, 2007 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Moskos at least can start
by mtk52983 on Jun 10, 2007 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+2
by kaisertown on Jun 10, 2007 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
by baseballgg24 on Jun 10, 2007 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but...
Cannot have either of those in the Pirate management.
by Count Vertigo on Jun 10, 2007 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would love to see the Mock Draft v. Real Draft
by mtk52983 on Jun 10, 2007 8:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you will
by John Sickels on Jun 10, 2007 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Signability...
by rothe on Jun 10, 2007 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RE Signability...
In baseball, I would think these concerns are even greater. Rick Porcello's draft value is unlikely to ever be any higher than it is this year. What can he do at UNC to make himself any more highly regarded than he was this year when almost everyone had him ranked as the #2 overall player available. Chances are, his value will drop if he goes to UNC. He may have some injuries. He may not pitch as well as expected. And, worst case, he may have a catostrophic injury that prevents him from even being drafted the next time around.
I just don't get it. I can see it for the middle round guys who think they can improve their draft status by doing well in college and making a big pay day a few years down the road. But for Porcello and others like him, the pay day is here now.
by knightgalt on Jun 10, 2007 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two words
It's hard to convince a kid to forfeit the best four years of his life to toil in A ball and on a team bus to bubbleville when they could be living a dream of being essentially the man on campus with grades mattering only insofar as you gotta stay eligible.
College is the best, what price do you put on happy memories?
by mroak89 on Jun 11, 2007 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Two Words
I suppose there is one difference between baseball and other major professional sports and that is that after being drafted, players are not immediately major leaguers. In football and basketball, since there is no equivalent minor league system, a top draft pick begins immediately with the pro club and has a chance to fight for playing time right away. In baseball, you sign a multi-million dollar contract and immediately get shuffled off to some small town where a few hundred people watch your games and may have never heard of you.
Even at that, I find it hard to fathom that players like Porcello are willing to risk the millions of dollars that they could sign for to gamble that they will be worth a few million more after playing college ball for a while. If he doesn't sign and tears up his shoulder during his freshman year at UNC, he'll feel like a fool for the rest of his life.
by knightgalt on Jun 11, 2007 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
College Life
by rothe on Jun 11, 2007 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree
Add in the fact that he comes from a wealthy family, his college will be paid for by playing ball, and he will most likely have some money fronted to him under the table by Boras Corp, and it's really not a bad deal at all.
The only thing he has to worry about is shredding his labrum and/or pitching poorly, but UNC has a solid track record with pitchers over the past few years, so i'm guessing he feels comfortable with the staff.
by Bowser on Jun 11, 2007 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best Years of your life
If I'm a hitter and my family is not destitute, and I believe in myself, I am going to college unless I am A-Rod or Griffey Junior. How many position players suffer career ending injuries in college?
by elricsi on Jun 12, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man oh man
by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Three (+1) significant sleepers
Brandon Waring, 3B - Wofford College: taken by Cincinatti in the 7th round. Probably a right fielder convert, has significant pop and athleticism. Noted as having a cannon of an arm, and hit 27 homers this season. Probably my favorite corner infield pick after Josh Vitters and Kevin Aherns.
Kody Kaiser, OF - Oklahoma City College: taken by Detroit in the 15th round. The Tigers had an incredible draft, which is pretty much contrary to the spirit of the draft process being as they won the AL pennant last year. Oklahoma City is somewhat of a hitters' paradise. And after Ted Ledbetter washed out in A-ball with the Marlins after hitting over .500 in his final season there, Kaiser's offensive numbers are moot. What makes him special though is his approach at the plate. Since he is a switch hitter, I can't help but draw Nick Swisher comps, although I am speculative of his left-handed approach. From the right side though, his bat speed and level swing make me believe he is something special.
Adam Mills, RHP - Charlotte: drafted in the 8th round by Boston. I am not certain that Mills was THE collegiate innings-pitched leader this season, but I can't find anyone who came close to his 142 2/3 innings of work. So, it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't pitch much or at all for the remainder of the year. The raves about Mills have been his approach in going after hitters, foregoing strikeouts to minimize his pitch counts. He walked 27 against 141 strikeouts this year, yielding just 93 hits. Probably projects as a bottom rotation guy, or even a reliever (I say this only because the Atlantic 10 is a weak hitters conference) but it wouldn't surprise me if he surpasses the status-quo projection.
The +1 ... not a small-school guy. Cole St. Clair, LHP - Rice: drafted in the 7th round by Cleveland. If the Indians can sign him, which is a monumental 'if', he will be THE steal of the '07 draft.
by StickRat on Jun 11, 2007 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
any thoughts on UNC Andrew Carignan?
by rayver723 on Jun 11, 2007 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
David Mailman
I figured he'd be a tough sign for Boston and I would of drafted him in the mock high if I had a team.
by fischbowl on Jun 11, 2007 7:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mailman
by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs














