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Draft Thoughts

I'll have more of these later.

Best Value Pick: Jason Heyward at 14. I think he's an outstanding prospect and right up there with Moustakas and Vitters...I like him a bit better overall actually. Getting him at 14 is a real coup for the Braves.

Worst Value Pick: I hate to say this, but I think Ben Revere would have been there in the second round for the Twins. I don't like second-guessing Mike Radcliff, who is probably the best in the business, so I'll keep an open mind about this, but on paper at least it looks strange.

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Heyward
I think he will make people forget about Andruw Jones in 3 years.  I wonder if he can fly through the minors like Jeff and Andruw did.  My outfield for 2010 I hope.  Brandon Jones in left, Jeff Francoeur in Center, and Jason Heyward in Right.

by Bravesin07 on Jun 10, 2007 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Heyward
Doesn't have enough arm to be in right. It would be Brandon Jones in right, Frenchy in center, and Heyward in left if it was that three. I also absolutely love the Freddie Freeman pick. Once this guy fills out he is going to be hitting bombs.
Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jun 10, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok
I thought Heyward had an arm.  

by Bravesin07 on Jun 10, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gotta agree....
I thought Heyward was the best of the big 3 HS position players. Dude is an excellent athlete with a very good approach at the plate.

by SenorGato88 on Jun 10, 2007 2:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Giants Thoughts
I'll be interested to see if John has any thoughts on what direction the Giants took with their raft of extra picks vs, say, the Padres.  I'm coming around a bit on the Giants.  I still think they should have taken Mills at #10.  They still could have had Alderson at #22, Fairley at #29 then another high ceiling HS pitcher like Griffith or Blair at #32, although I'm liking Noonan better after reviewing his HS stats.  Looks like he may have more power and speed than folks are giving credit for.  

What made me feel a bit better is the number of hitters with power potential they took in the later rounds:

Andy D'Alessio from Clemson looks like a legitimate power threat.  Not sure why you would take a Steven Edlefsen or John King ahead of Andy, but glad he was still around at #18.  

Michael Ambort, taken at #6 from Lamar, will probably need  to find a position to play other than catcher, but he's got some power and is a switch hitter to boot.

Chad Rothford, at 6'5", 250 lbs from Oral Roberts is another switch hitting big man with decent power numbers.  Can he make contact in the pros?

Phil Disher, another catcher from South Carolina who may need to find another position, slugged .599 with 15 HR's

Jack Rye, of FSU, led a good hitting team in OBP and SLG% two years in a row.   A LH bat not sure why he fell to round 46.  As a Jr, he could go back to school, but not sure what he could to do boost his stock at this point.

Lastly, the biggest sleeper pick of all may be 6'4", 225 lb Mike Lobey of Augustana College in South Dakota(isn't that where Lyle Alzado went to school?).  Lobey is a LH hitting OF who went .405/.490/.718 and moves well enough to steal 6 bases.  Sounds like Beau Mills lite?

Anyway, if 1 or 2 of these later round boppers pan out, this could end up being an epically great draft for the Giants if they can also sign all the first and supplemental round HS kids.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 10, 2007 2:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Giants' Draft
Thank you for all your research, DrB.  I was a bit bummed that the Giants did not seem to address the most pressing needs in the system (position players) and that two of their supplemental round picks appear to be reaches (Williams and Culberson) but perhaps the Giants were onto something with their later round picks.  I don't want to second guess their pick of Bumgarner over a position player... if there is one thing the Giants do well lately, it is drafting and developing pitching... and pre-draft predictions had the Dodgers hot on his tail despite the fact that they already have Kershaw.  A southpaw with Bumgarner's potential may have been too much to pass up.

I would be interested in John's thoughts on Fairley.  He doesn't sound too different from Heyward, whom John raves about, except being more raw.  Fairley may have a bit less power potential but more defensive upside.  There is the character question, but the Giants surely know about that, and judging by how they are trying to groom Villalona on and, just as importantly, off the field, character must be something they feel is important and in Fairley's case, manageable.  

So a potential Carl Crawford type of player along with a high ceiling prep lefty, polished prep righty, and promising top of the order 2nd baseman (Noonan) may not be too bad of a haul in the top 32 picks.  Or am I just grabbing at straws?

by baseballjunkie on Jun 11, 2007 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Giants supplemental
They were reaches but the thing is it is okay to make a few signability picks. To get Fairley, Bumgarner, and Alderson it is gonna cost a lot of money. In this situation I have no problem with a team taking someone they think they can get under slot if that allows them to sign the other guys easier.

by Kanst42 on Jun 11, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

signability
watching the giants draft a couple guys because they will sign under slot just makes me even more sure that teams should be allowed to trade picks.

by kaisertown on Jun 11, 2007 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree
Why should a team like the Giants be forced to trade early round picks, where the chance for success is greater, because they lost a bunch of FA's?  By drafting a couple of guys who will sign below slot actually maximizes the Giants chance for success because it allows them to draft a guy who would have gone higher, who is likely a better talent, but fell for signability reasons.  In addition, if one of the "signable" picks ends up to be a diamond in the rough the team has come out even better

by mtk52983 on Jun 11, 2007 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Further review of Giants draft
I'm starting to feel better about the Giants draft also.  I just listened to the podcast of Keith Law's (ESPN) analysis of the first round and he felt the Giants had the best showing of any team.  He especially liked the Fairley pick, describing him as a top 10 talent who dropped due to character issues that could very likely prove to have been overblown.

Highschool power lefties are a rare commodity and Bumgarner was clearly the best of that group.  He would make a nice compliment to the finesse lefty Zito in the (hopefully) not too distant future.

Even though it is thought that the Giants will groom Alderson as a starter, scouts see him more as a closer, and if he fulfills his potential in that role and advances to the bigs quickly I think that could be a welcomed change for Giants fans, who have had to endure a string of closers who were either averse to throwing strikes or were really just set up men.

And like DrB, the Noonan pick is growing on me also, since he had been highly regarded, with a highwater prediction of #16 to Toronto.

So adding Fairley and Noonan to the current stable of prospects in the lower minors means the Giants organizational plan of developing speed&defense players is well underway.  It could represent quite a refreshing and exciting change for a team that has for too long featured a station to station offense that goes only as far as Barry can carry them.

by baseballjunkie on Jun 14, 2007 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

slepper
Best sleeper picks:

Brad Emaus, 11th round, Toronto

Danny Lehman, pick 272, Minnesota

Tyler Henley, pick 262, St. Louis

James McOwen, pick 195, Seattle

Jason Monti, pick 775, Toronto

Matt Tucker, pick 939, Baltimore

Cole Cook, pick 1090, Seattle

Phil Disher, pick, 1331, San Francisco

http://sheafaithful.blogspot.com/ aamzing baseball blog

by Ludacrispat26 on Jun 10, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

dennis dixon
High risk pick but if he develops the reward could be enormous. I trust that the Braves scouting saw something great in him
Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jun 10, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

College QB's
The track record for college QB's switching to baseball in the pros is not promising.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 10, 2007 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but
I trust the Braves scouts in their judgment. They have done such a good job of doing it for the past 17 years or so
Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Jun 10, 2007 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

eh
I'm ok with taking a risk but there was NO need to do that in round 5.  He would have been there in the 17th

by nms on Jun 12, 2007 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sleepers
Adrian Alaniz?

by fischbowl on Jun 10, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree with both
Can't help but agree if you're from UGA (Coach Perno sounded completely stunned that Revere was went in the first round).

My favorite sleeper is Adam Mills (Boston - 264). 142 IP, 141 K, 27 BB, 1 HR allowed. I know UNC-Charlotte isn't a powerhouse and he has question marks, but I still think this is good value for the 8th round.

by Andrew Thurmond on Jun 10, 2007 5:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ehh
Righty who throws 85-88 with fringe average secondary offerings. Its enough to get by at charlotte but if he ever makes the majors I will be shocked

by Kanst42 on Jun 10, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mills
Well, he did more than "get by" at Charlotte - he was among the NCAA's most effective pitchers. So I understand the attraction to this guy as he clearly has an idea of how to pitch.

But I would also be shocked if he ever made the major leagues, and I think he went about where he should have in the draft.

by FI on Jun 11, 2007 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Value pick
Rick Porcello to the Tigers at #27 is the best value pick.

by SBcaptain2 on Jun 10, 2007 6:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sign
I think we should wait to see if he actually signs before we say that.  That being said, I probably agree.
Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jun 10, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he signs then I'd agree with you
But if he goes to UNC then it is not.  A pick that does not sign can hardly be called a value pick

by mtk52983 on Jun 10, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Porcello's Value
I think taking him at #27 was a GREAT gamble.  If it works out, wonderful.  If not, you get another shot with that pick next year.

I think if you don't go for the potential reward due to the risk involved, you wind up with middling teams.

by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Signs
I think the term value ruins him. Even if he does sign, he could close 10 million dollars +. If he does cost that much he can't be considered a 'value pick' even at 27.

by Metty5 on Jun 10, 2007 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1
Porcello is nowhere near a "value" pick if he does indeed sign for roughly $10 mill in bonus money.  He's good, but he's not worth that type of money, and it's definitely not a value.

by Bowser on Jun 11, 2007 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I could look REALLY bad here
I could look REALLY bad here, but Porcello looked fabulous to me.  True, a lot can go wrong with a pitcher, but when I see Porcello, I see a bit of a pitching MACHINE that doesn't look to me like he is as likely to be injured as most pitchers.

So I think Porcello is a value pick even if he costs in the $10 million range.  You would rather have a year of Kevin Millwood?   :)

Again, I could look REALLY bad here.  But no risk, no reward.

I just had this horrible thought fly through my mind that Porcello DOESN'T sign then has his arm ruined in college.  Just a horrible thought, nothing more.

But a possible reason for Porcello to sign rather than go to college.

by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if your ignoring signability
than harvey was probably a better value pick than porcello anyways

by kaisertown on Jun 10, 2007 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Worst Value
Moskos to the Pirates at 4 has to be up there. A reliever at 4 when Weiters was still available?

by baseballgg24 on Jun 10, 2007 7:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Moskos at least can start
And Weiters's bonus demands may have been too high for the Pirates.  What good is a pick if he won't sign?  A worse value would be Casey Weathers at #8.  A guy who definitely will be a reliever when they had Beau Mills and Jason Heyward available if they wanted a bat or Parker and Aumont available if they wanted a pitcher

by mtk52983 on Jun 10, 2007 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+2
In that both Moskos and Weathers were questionable decisions

by kaisertown on Jun 10, 2007 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True
But unfortuantly the Pirates have allready said that Moskos best profiles as a closer in the bigs because of his "attitude". I would rather them draft a talented player such as Weiters than a nobody like Moskos, regardless of whether of not they would have actually signed Weiters.

by baseballgg24 on Jun 10, 2007 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but...
that would have taken either money to be spent by "nickels' Nutting or guts by Dave Littlefield.
Cannot have either of those in the Pirate management.

by Count Vertigo on Jun 10, 2007 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would love to see the Mock Draft v. Real Draft
It would be interesting comparing the two

by mtk52983 on Jun 10, 2007 8:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

you will
I'm going to start these tomorrow.

by John Sickels on Jun 10, 2007 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Signability...
I think everyone is underestimating the fact that any team will get an extra pick next year if they don't sign their pick.  Why not take a Porcello at #2 and stay at slot money?  I am a sales rep and I am 99% confident that i could convince him to sign at slot money rather than take the risk of going to college and blowing out his arm...or falling off a balcony...or getting in a bar fight...or raping a whore...or being killed in a car wreck...or having his thumb severed by a psychotic 'thumb severer'...I think you get the point.  Why take that chance if you are Porcello?  This was the year to draft the "unsignable" players.  I am shocked that more teams didn't go that route.

by rothe on Jun 10, 2007 9:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

RE Signability...
I agree. I've never understood why this isn't more of an issue in baseball. In basketball, players come out after their freshman year all the time now due to injury concerns. Many of them even wish they could stay in college another year, but don't because of the millions of dollars they are risking by setting foot on a college court where their value can go from lottery pick to window-washer in one turned ankle or twisted knee. And this is in a sport where rookies have little or no room for negotiating their first contract.

In baseball, I would think these concerns are even greater. Rick Porcello's draft value is unlikely to ever be any higher than it is this year. What can he do at UNC to make himself any more highly regarded than he was this year when almost everyone had him ranked as the #2 overall player available. Chances are, his value will drop if he goes to UNC.  He may have some injuries. He may not pitch as well as expected. And, worst case, he may have a catostrophic injury that prevents him from even being drafted the next time around.

I just don't get it. I can see it for the middle round guys who think they can improve their draft status by doing well in college and making a big pay day a few years down the road. But for Porcello and others like him, the pay day is here now.

by knightgalt on Jun 10, 2007 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two words
College life.

It's hard to convince a kid to forfeit the best four  years of his life to toil in A ball and on a team bus to bubbleville when they could be living a dream of being essentially the man on campus with grades mattering only insofar as you gotta stay eligible.

College is the best, what price do you put on happy memories?

by mroak89 on Jun 11, 2007 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RE: Two Words
I can see that being part of it, though I must say if someone offered me several million dollars at the end of my senior year of high school to skip college and go play baseball, I would have done it in a heartbeat.

I suppose there is one difference between baseball and other major professional sports and that is that after being drafted, players are not immediately major leaguers. In football and basketball, since there is no equivalent minor league system, a top draft pick begins immediately with the pro club and has a chance to fight for playing time right away. In baseball, you sign a multi-million dollar contract and immediately get shuffled off to some small town where a few hundred people watch your games and may have never heard of you.

Even at that, I find it hard to fathom that players like Porcello are willing to risk the millions of dollars that they could sign for to gamble that they will be worth a few million more after playing college ball for a while. If he doesn't sign and tears up his shoulder during his freshman year at UNC, he'll feel like a fool for the rest of his life.

by knightgalt on Jun 11, 2007 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

College Life
I think with 4 million dollars I could live something close to the same life I lived in college.  And, I wouldn't even come out of it with a crap load of credit card and student loan debt.  Seriously, I used to be on the side of 'go to school' for all these prospects.  Somewhere in the last 10 years my view has changed to 'you're a moron if you go to school'.  Not sure why.

by rothe on Jun 11, 2007 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I tend to agree
but traveling in a crappy bus from Joliet to Burlington for a good four years doesn't sound better than living the college life in Chapel Hill to me.  

Add in the fact that he comes from a wealthy family, his college will be paid for by playing ball, and he will most likely have some money fronted to him under the table by Boras Corp, and it's really not a bad deal at all.  

The only thing he has to worry about is shredding his labrum and/or pitching poorly, but UNC has a solid track record with pitchers over the past few years, so i'm guessing he feels comfortable with the staff.

by Bowser on Jun 11, 2007 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best Years of your life
I think there is a big difference if you are a hitter or pitcher.  If I'm a pitcher I am taking the money because so many of them blow out their arms.

If I'm a hitter and my family is not destitute, and I believe in myself, I am going to college unless I am A-Rod or Griffey Junior.  How many position players suffer career ending injuries in college?

by elricsi on Jun 12, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man oh man
Man, all the worries in the world and now I've got to worry about the "Thumb Severer!?"

by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Three (+1) significant sleepers
Three small-school guys I like:

Brandon Waring, 3B - Wofford College: taken by Cincinatti in the 7th round. Probably a right fielder convert, has significant pop and athleticism. Noted as having a cannon of an arm, and hit 27 homers this season. Probably my favorite corner infield pick after Josh Vitters and Kevin Aherns.

Kody Kaiser, OF - Oklahoma City College: taken by Detroit in the 15th round. The Tigers had an incredible draft, which is pretty much contrary to the spirit of the draft process being as they won the AL pennant last year. Oklahoma City is somewhat of a hitters' paradise. And after Ted Ledbetter washed out in A-ball with the Marlins after hitting over .500 in his final season there, Kaiser's offensive numbers are moot. What makes him special though is his approach at the plate. Since he is a switch hitter, I can't help but draw Nick Swisher comps, although I am speculative of his left-handed approach. From the right side though, his bat speed and level swing make me believe he is something special.

Adam Mills, RHP - Charlotte: drafted in the 8th round by Boston. I am not certain that Mills was THE collegiate innings-pitched leader this season, but I can't find anyone who came close to his 142 2/3 innings of work. So, it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't pitch much or at all for the remainder of the year. The raves about Mills have been his approach in going after hitters, foregoing strikeouts to minimize his pitch counts. He walked 27 against 141 strikeouts this year, yielding just 93 hits. Probably projects as a bottom rotation guy, or even a reliever (I say this only because the Atlantic 10 is a weak hitters conference) but it wouldn't surprise me if he surpasses the status-quo projection.

The +1 ... not a small-school guy. Cole St. Clair, LHP - Rice: drafted in the 7th round by Cleveland. If the Indians can sign him, which is a monumental 'if', he will be THE steal of the '07 draft.

by StickRat on Jun 11, 2007 12:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

any thoughts on UNC Andrew Carignan?
he was possibly the best closer in college baseball and an all american. but ive been watching the CWS and he throws nothing but fastballs. mid 90's is good enough to get college hitters out, but not in proball. He does have good fastball control and nice confidence on the mound, but i think he might have a been a slight overdraft by the A's in 5th rd.

by rayver723 on Jun 11, 2007 12:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

David Mailman
Does He Have Any Commitments.

I figured he'd be a tough sign for Boston and I would of drafted him in the mock high if I had a team.

by fischbowl on Jun 11, 2007 7:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mailman
is committed to Wake Forest, but he isn't considered to be a huge signability risk.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Jun 13, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I recall
Baseball America saying the opposite, that Mailman's Wake commitment was considered strong and it was going to be hard to sway him from school

by nms on Jun 17, 2007 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mailman
Once a mail man makes a commitment, he will honor it through rain or sleet, through ice or snow.

by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2007 12:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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