Jess Todd, Draft Sleeper?

by DrBGiantsfan on May 25, 2007 10:15 AM EDT

I was going through some college playoff boxscores and noticed Arkansas Junior RHP Jess Todd K'd 17 batters in 8 IP on yesterday. Nick Schmidt has gotten most of the attention our of Arkansas and I really hadn't heard of Todd. I looked up his season stats and they look mighty good: 9-2, 2.49, 90.1 IP, 25 BB, 124 K's! He doesn't have great size- 6'0", 213 lbs. Does anybody know what he throws? He looks like he could be a nice pickup for somebody in rounds 2-5?

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todd

BA says he has one of the best sliders in the draft and has the best stuff of the trio (schmidt and welker)

by god allah star on May 25, 2007 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

I Love Razorback Baseball

First let me toot my own horn (from a few weeks ago):

"Don't Want to Start a New Diary

And since this is draft related I thought I'd throw it in here.

I got a chance to watch Jess Todd today and he dominated once again (coming 1 out shy of a shutout). If he could have finished it - it would have been his third complete game in a row. Todd started the season in the Razorback bullpen but has since moved to the rotation and is dominating as a starter (after struggling in relief). I wish I had his numbers since he has moved to the rotation.

Jess is a big hard throwing righty with the chance for 2 plus pitches - a FB that can reach the mid-90's and a great slider. After today, here is his season line:

67.3IP 63H 23ER 20BB 85K 1HRA 5S 2CG 3.07ERA

Those numbers are even more impressive when you factor in that he struggled as a reliever. I originally thought that Jess would be drafted in 5th-7th rounds but I'm guessing his recent performance as a starter is improving his draft stock. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as high as the 3rd round. Anyways, just someone to keep an eye on..."

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/5/5/182857/2299

Now, onto the discussion...

I did make a small mistake above as Jess is not actually that big (6'0 215lbs.). Apparently, his delivery is also considered "violent" by scouts - causing some to believe he will end up in relief. Still it is impossible to overlook the way Todd is dominating. Dr.B mentioned Todd's unbelievable game yesterday - but his performance over the last month deserves mention. Here are his last six starts:

9IP 6H 2ER 2BB 7K
9IP 6H 1ER 2BB 8K
8.3IP 7H 0ER 3BB 10K
6IP 8H 1ER 2BB 10K
9IP 4H 1ER 2BB 12K
8IP 2H 0ER 1BB 17K (including strikeouts to the first 9 Gamecock batters in a row)
Total - 5W 0L 49.3IP 33H 5ER 12BB 64K 0.91ERA 0.91WHIP

This all against the best competition in college baseball. As Dr.B mentioned, Nick Schmidt has gotten most of the publicity, but Todd has easily been the best pitcher on the Razorbacks the last month and argument can be made that he has been the best pitcher in the nation over that period. In the game yesterday, Chuck Barrett (who is the best college baseball announcer in the nation) put it very eloquently, "Todd has the Gamecock hitters flailing about wildly with little chance to actually make contact."

Todd's name has to be moving up draft boards but I'm guessing his size and delivery will ensure he gets the "bullpen" tag and will prevent him from going too high. I still say a third rounder but he may move up into the second.

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 25, 2007 11:04 AM EDT reply actions

You know who this sounds like?...

...I'll give you a clue, it starts with "Lin" and ends with "Cecum."

I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on May 25, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah right!

Get real. Maybe for a few starts but, Linc did it for 3 years!

Can anybody say he should have gone #1 now? Everyone? Now WHY was he not rated the #1 prospect by everybody going into this season? Should I name the "reasons"?

Nebulous injury concearns
Lack of respect for the level of college baseball.

Not sure of which order but, will we learn from our mistakes people?

casedog

by casejud on May 25, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Lincecum

There was concern that his delivery combined with his small size and large amount of innings worked in college would eventually catch up to him. It may not happen immediately, but whose to say we are not looking at the next Kerry Wood?

by mtk52983 on May 25, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, i suppose

you Demogoge! He's not going to get injurwed okay!? Take it from me. Even if he pulls a muscle or two I'll take him. His arm is well conditioned. He's all good.

casedog

by casejud on May 25, 2007 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

You are a...

...douche bag, read the "scouting report" that was provided.

"Jess is a big hard throwing righty with the chance for 2 plus pitches - a FB that can reach the mid-90's and a great slide"

"I did make a small mistake above as Jess is not actually that big (6'0 215lbs.). Apparently, his delivery is also considered "violent" by scouts - causing some to believe he will end up in relief."

That doesn't sound EXACTLY like Lincecum? (except for the weight and the slider instead of a curve)

I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on May 25, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Minds...

Q: J from NYC asks:
Jess Todd was dealing last night with 17 Ks in 8.0 shutout IP. I know he has a violent delivery, but with a three-pitch repertoire do you still project him to a back of the bullpen reliever as a pro? Also, does this latest showing push him up to the bottom of the second round?
A:

John Manuel: J, for whatever reason, I like Jess Todd and Duke Welker a lot at Arkansas, and Todd is turning it up at the right time while Welker has struggled of late. Todd still sounds like a bullpen guy though; there are months and even years of track record pointing that way versus one outstanding start last night. It's impressive he came up so big in the SEC tourney but he still sounds like he's best suited to relieve in pro ball, and he still should go in the first three rounds as a bullpen guy.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2007052501&rnd=18#bottom

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 25, 2007 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

any chance

he passes over the draft and returns to school for Sr year?

by Havok1517 on May 25, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

Will depend where he is drafted

Although some budget oriented teams will overdraft seniors, they usually do not do it in the first couple of rounds

by mtk52983 on May 25, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt it

But there's no way to tell for sure. It sounds like he'll get drafted high enough to mean the money is pretty sweet. In addition, the Razorbacks aren't going to be as good next year without Schmidt and Welker (likely gone to the draft as well) - not to mention several position players that are likely to be drafted in the top 10 rounds or are seniors this year. Finally, since some scouts believe he is an injury risk - I'd say that it is in his best interest to sign while he is healthy and the money is decent...

Gorkys Hernandez is my new favorite player (my tribute to VTTigers)

by Dfarth on May 25, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Todd

I was keeping an eye on his game last night and what he did was pretty amazing. He struck out the first 9 guys he faced and 14 of the first 15 outs were K's. South Carolina is a pretty good team and the stakes of the game were pretty high. I know nothing about this guy (did not see him on BA's top 200-may have missed him) but what he did last night was pretty amazing.

by bl on May 25, 2007 9:52 PM EDT reply actions