MOD: Nationals

Draft Philosophy:

The Nationals are an organization in dire need of high-ceiling, impact talent at all levels. No longer a ward of MLB, ownership under the Lerner group has loosened their purse strings to some degree, and the first priority must be to rebuild a nearly bereft farm system. With a new stadium opening next year, there is substantial pressure to identify and draft premium, fast-moving talent to improve the product on the field and keep the "new ballpark honeymoon" going on as long as possible. People will come, Ray...people will most definitely come. But not without some tangible improvement...Expect the Nationals to make a bold statement with this draft and generate some real excitement in the long term.

With this in mind, I plan to proceed with a "best player available" mentality. There are many holes to fill and it's important to bring in the best ballplayers available. I see no reason to draft by "need" - at worst, a premium 3rd basemen that is blocked by Zimmerman becomes a valuable trading chip.

With extra picks in hand, this should be a balanced draft. We can target college players that we hope will be ready to contribute within a year or two, but still afford to stockpile some blue-chip high-schoolers that will take longer to develop. Hitting and pitching are both organizational needs, so I hope to get a good mix of both.

In college players, I've mainly been scouting players for the traditional Division 1 powerhouses. There are definite gaps in my knowledge of players at lesser-known schools, so feel free to suggest anyone that deserves investigation. The emphasis for college players is on proven production. I'm not looking for projects out of a four-year school - I want ballplayers who know what they're doing and have the resume to prove it.

The JuCo emphasis is on production as well, with recognition of strength of competition. A guy putting up huge numbers at North Dakota Haircutter's JC is probably not going to translate to the next level.

High school players have to be approached based on projection and traditional scouting. Wild variances in competition and quality can add up to some very misleading stats.

The Nationals have eight picks in the first five rounds:

#6, 31, 49, 68, 71, 101, 131, 161

I'll start by profiling my favorite candidates at #6 overall. I'm assuming that Price, Wieters, Vitters, and Porcello will all be off the board at this point. If any of these four should fall, I'd likely snatch them up quickly.

Remaining candidates (in current order of preference):

Moustakas, Mike - SS - Chatsworth HS (CA)
* Rising meteorically this spring. Great contact skills, impressive power, and good overall athleticism. Expected to move to third base as he develops, but we'll find a place for him. I'm very close to ranking him over Vitters - he could be something special.

Mills, Beau - 3B - Lewis & Clark State College (ID)
* Season line - .462/.551/1.000, 31 HR, 106 RBI, 31/17 BB/K
Hard to argue with numbers like that. Some concern over strength of schedule at a NAIA school, but he put up two impressive seasons at Fresno State before academic woes forced him to Lewis & Clark. His bat is legit. His glove, however, is not, but perhaps he can be hidden at 1B or LF.

Moskos, Daniel - LHP - Clemson
* Very good since moving into the rotation. Good fastball, slider, and change. The best bet to help the big club in a hurry, but not a sexy pick. However, he could be in the bullpen this year or start next year in the rotation - that has a lot of value.

Beaven, Blake - RHP - Irving HS (TX)
* Tall righty can really bring it. Despite preaching against the trustworthiness of high school stats, I can't help but love this season line: 7-1, 0.13, 19 hits, 103/2 K/BB in 53 IP

Harvey, Matt - RHP - Fitch HS (CT)
* I rank him lower than most - all the tools are there, but he throws across his body in a way that puts a lot of torque on his shoulder. Could be cleaned up, but I still worry about higher injury risk. Special arm, though.

Detwiler, Ross - LHP - Missouri State
* Tall lefty who's stuff is still improving. Another relatively safe pick, he could make great strides very quickly.

Heyward, Jason - 1B/OF - Henry County HS (GA)
* His power potential is huge, and a much more complete package than Burgess. Will take a while to develop.

Parker, Jarrod - RHP - Norwell HS (IN)
* Another guy who really generating some buzz lately. His fastball can touch 98, and his slider may be the best I've seen all year.

Bumgarner, Madison - LHP - South Caldwell HS (NC)
* Perhaps the highest overall ceiling of any prep pitcher, but his secondary pitches are very, very far behind. Perhaps too much of a project at #6 overall.

Main, Michael - RHP - Deland HS (FL)
* The best athlete in the draft, IMHO. He's slid since last year due to a complicated and arm-heavy delivery that scares some scouts off. I'd still try him on the mound, but his bat and speed may work in the outfield if he can't refine his stuff.

I feel all of these guys at legitimate choices at #6, but I'd love some input to help narrow the field down.

I've rambled on long enough - I'll save the later rounds for...later :)

- birdtown