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Making Sense of Josh Hamilton

How do we make sense of Josh Hamilton?

First question. Is this sustainable? Hamilton is hitting .266/.365/.609 with six homers, 10 walks, and 16 strikeouts in 64 at-bats. He's 5-for-22 with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts in 22 at-bats against lefties, 12-for-42 (.286) with all six homers, 7 walks, and 7 strikeouts in 42 at-bats against righthanders. Now, the sample sizes here are tiny, and there's no way he is going to sustain a 60-homer pace through the whole season. But looking at the splits, the thing that stands out is the platoon difference in his BB/K/AB ratio. As long as the Reds limit his exposure to lefthanded pitching, I think he should be able to remain effective. My guess is that he'll settle into the .240-.250 range with good power as the season progresses.

Considering that he is coming to the majors with only 23 games of experience above A-ball and several years of rust on his resume, this is remarkable performance.

In the book this year I was pretty skeptical about how Hamilton would do, worrying that it might not be the best thing for the player considering his personal issues, to force him into the majors as a Rule 5 guy. But by all accounts the Reds are trying to protect him as best they can, limiting press access, etc. It's a remarkable story, like something out of a movie, and I have no idea how the story ends.

I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the subject. Let's do a Community Projection for Hamilton. Project the following:

Games
At-bats
Hits
batting average
Doubles
Triples
Homers
RBI
Runs Scored
Walks
Strikeouts
Steals
Caught Stealing

0 recs  |  Comment 24 comments

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Comments

Display:

Hamilton
Games: 122
At-bats: 410
Hits: 108
batting average: .263
Doubles: 24
Triples: 3
Homers: 17
RBI: 67

by ISC on Apr 30, 2007 10:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Solid year
Games 124
At-bats 400
Hits 102
batting average .255
Doubles 23
Triples 2
Homers 20
RBI 79
Runs Scored 74
Walks 65
Strikeouts 98
Steals 6
Caught Stealing 1

by Kanst42 on Apr 30, 2007 10:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

rate
.255/.359/.478

by Kanst42 on Apr 30, 2007 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hamilton
Games 145
At-bats 479
Hits 133
batting average .278
Doubles 29
Triples 2
Homers 25
RBI 79
Runs Scored 75
Walks 70
Strikeouts 108
Steals 6
Caught Stealing 3

by nyy601 on Apr 30, 2007 10:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Josh Hamilton
Games 133
At-bats 438
Hits 111
batting average .253
Doubles 24
Triples 1
Homers 22
RBI 73
Runs Scored 68
Walks 64
Strikeouts 100
Steals 5
Caught Stealing 2
http://sheafaithful.blogspot.com/ aamzing baseball blog

by Ludacrispat26 on Apr 30, 2007 10:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hamilton
Games 125
At Bats 400
Hits 103
Batting Average .256
Singles 59
Doubles 15
Triples 2
Homers 27
RBI's 77
Runs 77
Walks 62
Strikeouts 124
Steals 17
CS 7

.256/.357/.507

Probably too optimistic, especially in the power department, but you know what? I'm rooting for the guy to be this good. And you know in all likeliness he takes the Chris Shelton-Jonny Gomes path back into anonymity but I hope this is more then a fluke and he can come in and garnish ROY honors and be a productive player for years to come

by Trenchtown on Apr 30, 2007 11:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I dont think he will take the Shelton path
last year when Shelton got hot something just told me it was a fluke.  I remeber after he got hot a poll on ESPN asking how many homers he would hit and almost everybody on the poll had 40-50, I think i choose like 20-30.  I guees I just doubted him because his lack of athleticism.  On the other hand I think Hamilton has all the skills to continue putting up good numbers.

by nyy601 on Apr 30, 2007 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ROY
Games 145
At-bats 505
Hits 138
batting average 273
Doubles 32
Triples 5
Homers 33
RBI 104
Runs Scored 93
Walks 55
Strikeouts 92
Steals 11
Caught Stealing 3

by GuyinNY on May 1, 2007 12:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rate Stats
273/356/556
912 OPS
79% SB

...and he'll be clutch.

by GuyinNY on May 1, 2007 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's a "can't miss prospect."
Really, when someone defines what a can't miss prospect is, his story should be in there. I think it speaks to how talented he was that he can come back like this.

by eeleye on May 1, 2007 12:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My guess
To me this is a crapshoot, I have no idea what to expect.

Games  130
At-bats  479
Hits  120
batting average .251
Doubles 22
Triples 4
Homers  18
RBI   67
Runs Scored 71
Walks 48
Strikeouts 87
Steals 14
Caught Stealing  5

251/319/426

This may be a little pessimistic. I am cheering for this guy and I hope this season helps him turn his life around. The lack of experience and rust just scares me.

by bl on May 1, 2007 1:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

By the way..
thanks John for doing this projection.

by bl on May 1, 2007 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is the impossible possible?
Games 102
At-bats 399
Hits 101
batting average .253
Doubles 27
Triples 1
Homers 15
RBI 66
Runs Scored 68
Walks 51
Strikeouts 75
Steals 8
Caught Stealing 1

.253/.343/.437

Think of how charitable this would have looked at the beginning of spring training...

As a Reds fan, and a fan of feel-good stories, this looks really pessimistic.  But I also think he will fatigue as the season wears on - when's the last time he played this much - and it will take some time for Narron to recognize it.  I also think he'll miss a little time due to a relatively minor leg or knee injury.

by DevilsAdvocate on May 1, 2007 5:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Long Season
The real issue is how he will handle adversity. So far his comeback has been mostly a success story. But if he starts to struggle and can't adjust I hope the Reds are prepared for it.

by TT on May 1, 2007 9:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

subject
I love seeing Josh come back like this. What a story. Just think what he could do if he didn't have all those forks stuck in his ass.

I also read online he is opening a resturant. All the menu has on it is crow.

Hopefully somewhere Jeff Allison is watching and sees a glimmer of hope.

by Josh on May 1, 2007 9:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ZOMG JOSH HAMILTONAMENTS
Games 140
At-bats 500
Hits 145
batting average .290
Doubles 22
Triples 4
Homers 28
RBI 110
Runs Scored 92
Walks 64
Strikeouts 110
Steals 11
Caught Stealing 2

by DeisJJ on May 1, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Will be a star
Getting back into the game right now, but will explode within 2 years

Games- 135 (platoon vs righties)
At-bats- 484
Hits- 123
batting average- .254
Doubles- 22
Triples- 3
Homers- 21
RBI- 71
Runs Scored- 65
Walks- 37
Strikeouts- 96
Steals- 10
Caught Stealing- 4

by ScottAZ on May 1, 2007 12:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

this guys is everywhere
my fiance watches all those home improvement/real estate shows and who is the guy buying the house?
Josh Hamilton. He seemed pretty well adjusted as far as the 20 minutes I saw of him with his family.
It really is a remarkable story, I think he can continue to excel there.

by cheapseats on May 1, 2007 1:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the average and walks will keep up
I think the Reds will overuse and overvalue him as the season goes on, but he puts up good power numbers. That being said, I  hope he exceeds this. What a great story.

Games 137
At-bats 493
Hits 116
Batting average - .235
Doubles 27
Triples 4
Homers 25
RBI 74
Runs 60
Walks 31
Stolen bases 12
Caught stealing 5
Strikeouts 119

by NYCRoyal on May 1, 2007 2:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My take
I think it's possible he gets injured and misses a good chunk of the season, but remains quite productive otherwise.  I really like his BB rate so far.

Games 91
At-bats 353
Hits 97
Batting average - .275
Doubles 18
Triples 1
Homers 19
RBI 67
Runs 71
Walks 44
Stolen bases 8
Caught stealing 5
Strikeouts 90

by doug frobel on May 1, 2007 5:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My pick
Games : 139
At bats:498
Hits:  121
Batting average: 237
Doubles:23
Triples:1
Homers:21
rbis: 73
runs: 87
walks:54
stolen bases:6
caught stealing:5
strikesouts:100
lets go oakland

by robb on May 1, 2007 6:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hamilton beaches
Games 142
At-bats  508
Hits 145
batting average .289
Doubles 23
Triples 2
Homers 30
RBI 81
Runs Scored 84
Walks 47
Strikeouts 113
Steals 7
Caught Stealing 4

Given his home park, he could hit a lot of homers.

by asinwreck on May 1, 2007 7:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

what can you say...
undeveloped super talent impeded by drug addiction

no previews.

ok

assuming drug addiction stays in remission...

Games 140
At-bats  500
Hits 140
batting average .275
Doubles 23
Triples 2
Homers 31
RBI 90
Runs Scored 75
Walks 40
Strikeouts 125
Steals 7
Caught Stealing 4

by dryice on May 3, 2007 7:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hamilton
I went to the Cards/Reds game and sat in the field boxes down the first base line.  Hamilton was in right field.  This guy is a tremendous athlete, one of the best throwing arms in the majors.  

The fact that he is hitting the ball well after a long layoff is impressive.  

.280
40 hr
110 rbi

He clearly has the talent, I think his problems are behind him.

by alstl04 on May 4, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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