Alex Gordon Community Projection

by John Sickels on Mar 24, 2007 11:26 AM EDT in News Comment 53 comments

I weighed in on Alex Gordon a couple of days ago, but I'm interested in what you guys expect from him in 2007, so let's do a Community Projection. Project the following for Gordon in '07:

Games
At-bats
Runs
Hits
batting average
doubles
triples
homers
RBI
walks
strikeouts
stolen bases
caught stealing
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no?

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prediction

Games 145
At-bats 505
Runs 90
Hits 150
batting average .297
doubles 31
triples 2
homers 26
RBI 93
walks 60
strikeouts 107
stolen bases 8
caught stealing 3
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? NO

by thedude on Mar 24, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How not ROY

If he puts up .297 26hr 93rbi 90r I'm just curious who you think is gonna win rookie of the year.

Jman

by Honda3speed on Mar 25, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forgot about Dice-K

I forgot aboutr Dice-K and was thinking Delmon had to many at-bats. Makes sense now.

Jman

by Honda3speed on Mar 25, 2007 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dice-K

Is my pick for ROY. Though A-Gor, would win ROY if he were in the NL.

by thedude on Mar 25, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A-Gor

What ever happened to normal nicknames? After A-Rod its been down hill

by Metty5 on Mar 25, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

American Sportswriters

Got Lazy. Back in the Day the tried to be poetic in their nicknames, today they just shorten the name (like Dice-K)

by thedude on Mar 25, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its ok

but I prefer A-don, or even lex-gor still have no love for ex-don though.

by JFP on Mar 26, 2007 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I vote for Flipper (or DYoung)...

He's gonna play like he will have something to prove... How do you like that nickname?

by louief1 on Mar 27, 2007 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

Games 153
At-bats 550
Runs 83
Hits 155
batting average .282
doubles 33
triples 2
homers 24
RBI 90
walks 75
strikeouts 103
stolen bases 13
caught stealing 5
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? YES

by nyy601 on Mar 24, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon III

Games 133
At-bats 512
Runs 89
Hits 139
batting average .271
doubles 30
triples 3
homers 22
RBI 94
walks 62
strikeouts 120
stolen bases 8
caught stealing 4
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? NO

by The Hook on Mar 24, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

Games:142
At Bats: 568
Runs: 97
Hits: 168
Average: 293
Doubles: 33
Triples: 3
Homers: 26
RBI's: 89
Walks: 66
Strike Outs: 106
Stolen Bases: 9
Caught Stealing: 3
ROY: Yes

by King Felix 21 on Mar 24, 2007 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Please enter a subject for your comment.

155 games
530 ABs
82 (?) runs
.272/.353/.481
144H
30 2Bs
3 3Bs
23 HRs
60 walks, 8 HBP, 3(?) sac flys(i only mention this to account for OBP projection..im bored at work)
88 RBI
110 Ks
11 SBs
5 CS
ROY-No.

About the ROY, I dont consider Dice-K a rook, so itd be either him or Delmon that id pick for ROY if i had to pick, but if the question is will "X" when "Y" award the answer for me is always no, esp since pre-season favorites do so bad in the ROY.
The odds that he wont win are greater than those that he will, even if his odds of winning it are the highest of all contenders.

by nms on Mar 24, 2007 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

gotcha

Games: 154
At-bats: 590
Runs: 89
Hits: 177
batting average: .300
doubles: 49
triples: 4
homers: 21
RBI: 101
walks: 62 (+7 HBP)
strikeouts: 115
stolen bases: 14
caught stealing: 1
AL Rookie of the Year: YES

.300/.373/.510

.883 OPS

by doublestix on Mar 24, 2007 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here goes nothing

Games 151
At-bats 576
Runs 91
Hits 164
batting average .285
doubles 39
triples 2
homers 24
RBI 89
walks 64
strikeouts 134
stolen bases 14
caught stealing 2
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? Yes

by Kanst42 on Mar 24, 2007 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

eh not as optimistic as you all

Games 145
At-bats 560
Runs 88
Hits 157
batting average .280
doubles 32
triples 1
homers 18
RBI 78
walks 80
strikeouts 130
stolen bases 17
caught stealing 5
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? No

by Metty5 on Mar 24, 2007 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Alex Gordon

Games 150
At-bats 560
Runs 82
Hits 155
batting average .270
doubles 35
triples 2
homers 26
RBI 81
walks 75
strikeouts 140
stolen bases 15
caught stealing 8
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? no

http://crosstownrivals.blogspot.com

by zookman12 on Mar 24, 2007 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Schmidt with a better average

149 Games
567 At-bats
97 Runs
168 Hits
.297 batting average
33 doubles
1 triples
28 homers
100 RBI
69 walks
87 strikeouts
13 stolen bases
6 caught stealing
No AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? (Delmon edges him out due to a minor hamsting thing that he shakes off but costs him some games and counting stats).

I am higher on Gordon since any 3B in the last decade (Wright included)..If he hits .257 with 13 HR, I'll still be betting on a Hall career and think it was the right decision to bring him up.

by roaddog on Mar 24, 2007 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon: I am very optomistic

Games 153
At-bats 571
Runs 93
Hits 173
batting average .302
doubles 34
triples 2
homers 29
RBI 105
walks 72
strikeouts 84
stolen bases 15
caught stealing 7
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? YES

by yanksfan6129 on Mar 24, 2007 9:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re

Games: 145
ABs: 540
Runs: 84
Hits: 158
Avg: .293
doubles: 31
triples: 3
home runs: 20
RBI: 82
walks: 68
Ks: 115
steals: 16
caught: 6
ROY: yes

.293/.371/.472

I think he's the new Jeff Bagwell. And expect those same kind of monster seasons a few years down the road.

by bootsy on Mar 24, 2007 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lots of K's, but lots of potential

Games: 140
ABs: 517
Runs: 82
Hits: 154
Avg: .298
doubles: 36
triples: 3
home runs: 26
RBI: 86
walks: 62
Ks: 125
steals: 12
caught: 3
ROY: yes

by ScarletKnight17 on Mar 24, 2007 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My projection

subject to be changed later as I am still refining my method for players, but Im working on it:

Games: 152
ABs: 573
Runs:75
Hits:156
Avg: .272
2B: 31
3B:2
HRs: 28
RBI: 83
BB: 65
K: 114
OBP: .346
SLG: .480
OPS: .826
SB: 7
CS: 2
AL ROY: no

by grozzy on Mar 24, 2007 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A-Gord

Games 147
At-bats 550
Runs 89
Hits 162
batting average .294
doubles 27
triples 2
homers 24
RBI 93
walks 72
strikeouts 124
stolen bases 18
caught stealing 4
yes, ROY

by god allah star on Mar 25, 2007 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon Projection

Games 150
At-bats 522
Runs 103
Hits 158
batting average .308
doubles 36
triples 3
homers 24
RBI 94
walks 68
strikeouts 124
stolen bases 17
caught stealing 6
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? YES

MelonvilleSports

by Melonville on Mar 25, 2007 1:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon projection

mes 152
At-bats 530
Runs 89
Hits 142
batting average .268
doubles 30
triples 2
homers 19
RBI 82
walks 59
strikeouts 133
stolen bases 16
caught stealing 5
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? NO

I think he has a great first half and when the royals come to town he's the only hitter on the team that instills fear into a pitchers heart. But second half he wears down a bit, pitchers understand him a bit better and its a learning experience for him as a prelude to his monster 2008 season.

Jman

by Honda3speed on Mar 25, 2007 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One more thing

2009 Gordon and Sizemore duke it out for MVP.

Jman

by Honda3speed on Mar 25, 2007 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ridiculously optimistic

Games 162
At-bats 600
Runs 95
Hits 200
batting average .333
doubles 42
triples 4
homers 28
RBI 115
walks 78
strikeouts 110
stolen bases 25
caught stealing 7
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? No

by Yakker on Mar 25, 2007 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

you think this kind of season would not be ROY worthy? Do you really see Dice-K being that dominant, or do you predict Delmon will do better?

yanksandmore.blogspot.com check it out

by lemonjello on Mar 25, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With Paps

back in the pen, I think the Monster has a legitimate chance to win 20 games. Doing that and helping the Sox to the playoffs, I would be shocked if he didn't win the ROY. Call it payback for Berroa/Godzilla. ;-)

Oh, and I don't think Delmon will come close to AG's numbers this year. I'm not sure Gordon will either, to be honest, which is why I said I was being ridiculously optimistic. But I do think that sort of a season is in reach for Gordon in 2007 if he can command the zone.

On a side note, I really like the energy/optimism coming out of Surprise these days. Gordon, Shealy and Butler are raking, Greinke and Soria look good, and Dotel's apparently back strong. Good to see a good organiztion like the Royals back on track!

by Yakker on Mar 25, 2007 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe its just me

But i think most of these projections are ridiculous.

by Metty5 on Mar 25, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not alone

I think they are a bit far-fetched too

by drwmsu1 on Mar 25, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So then

Let's see yours.

by Yakker on Mar 25, 2007 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine is there

look around, its there.

by Metty5 on Mar 25, 2007 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I saw that one, I was talking about the other guy.

I think you're just nervous AG's gonna supplant DW as the new face of young, power/speed 3Bs in the bigs. ;-)

by Yakker on Mar 25, 2007 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

Maybe, I think he will be great I just don't see him being an MVP candidate right out of the gates. His highest level is only AA. Although that jump is made all the time I don't think that these numbers are more his ceiling other than his average which seems to be where people are dropping him a little. These seasons would be better than the first full years of:

Alex Rodriguez
Ken Griffey Jr.
Mike Piazza (first exposer)
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau (last years MVP)
Derek Jeter
Barry Bonds...

I'll stop there but you get the point. I don't see him coming into the league and being a top 4 third baseman. He has the potential to be there of course, just not in his first year IMO.

by Metty5 on Mar 25, 2007 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

Lol, if he hits .333/.410/.567, he'll probably win the MVP.

by bootsy on Mar 25, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

That's what I was thinkin'.

by doublestix on Mar 25, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Well, John didn't ask that question, just ROY!

by Yakker on Mar 25, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

Games 151
at-bats 532
Runs 86
Hits 155
batting average .291
doubles 34
triples 4
homers 26
RBI 91
walks 62
strikeouts 103
stolen bases 16
caught stealing 3
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? Great year but, No, Matsuzaka gets it.

by NYCRoyal on Mar 25, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

Games 145
At-bats 504
Runs 78
Hits 144
batting average .286
doubles 33
triples 3
homers 29
RBI 88
walks 58
strikeouts 90
stolen bases 9
caught stealing 3
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? No - Delmon Young.

by tedMN on Mar 25, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Alex Johnathan Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals

Games: 155
At-bats: 542
Runs: 77
Hits: 175
Batting average: .322
Doubles: 36
Triples: 5
Homers: 15
RBI: 81
Walks: 66
Strikeouts: 83
Stolen bases: 15
Caught stealing: 4
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? Yes.

.322/.396/.490 line, not including sac flies, HBPs, etc. This is taking into account the oft-cited Baseball Prospectus report that predicts Gordon to either hit for power or hit for average, at least initially. I think he'll show good gap power and excellent contact and walk rates, like he's been doing in Spring Training, rather than showing a lot of home run power out of the gate.

The only thing that will cost him the AL ROY is either an injury or an East Coast bias.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 25, 2007 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

Games 140
At-bats 500
Runs 78
Hits 139
batting average .278
doubles 31
triples 1
homers 19
RBI 76
walks 57
strikeouts 135
stolen bases 13
caught stealing 6
AL Rookie of the Year, No

by GoldenSpikes24 on Mar 25, 2007 5:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll say...

Games - 158
At-bats - 549
Runs - 82
Hits - 158
batting average - .288
doubles - 27
triples - 2
homers - 26
RBI - 83
walks - 55
strikeouts - 89
stolen bases - 13
caught stealing - 5
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? - Like Chipper,
Gordon will be edged by a less deserving Japanese Import.

-peter

by PeterF on Mar 25, 2007 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's hoping Beltre can match these numbers!

Games 152
At-bats 539
Runs 84
Hits 160
batting average .296
doubles 32
triples 5
homers 23
RBI 91
walks 54
strikeouts 96
stolen bases 11
caught stealing 6
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? no

by Con on Mar 25, 2007 11:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Alex Gordon

Games 156
At-bats 569
Runs 97
Hits 164
batting average .288
doubles 39
triples 4
homers 29
RBI 103
walks 64
strikeouts 111
stolen bases 17
caught stealing 6
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? Absolutely

I don't see why if he doesn't have a shot at some MVP points too.

by wildthang on Mar 26, 2007 12:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

King Alex?

Games - 150
At-bats - 543
Runs - 83
Hits - 162
batting average - 303
doubles - 37
triples - 4
homers - 21
RBI - 93
walks - 63
strikeouts - 98
stolen bases - 17
caught stealing - 5
AL Rookie of the Year - YEP

by ChrisRef19 on Mar 26, 2007 7:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Post Above

After my post above people are still having MVP talk? Someone read it and make a response. He'd have one of the most impressive rookie seasons ever.

by Metty5 on Mar 26, 2007 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

Though it's been done. Ichiro did it when he first started, though he was obviously older and more experienced. Freddy Lynn won both the ROY and the MVP in 75, and of course Fernando won ROY and CYA in the same year as well.

But obviously we're talking about some pretty ridiculous seasons, and it's not exactly likely that someone jumping from AA could have that kind of a year. And that would be unprecedented.

by Yakker on Mar 26, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

Right now people are putting him in the Top .001% of rookie seasons. Not that I don't respect the opinions of the group of people here, but this is crazy. I really don't know if he'll reach this ceiling but to reach it in his first full season?

by Metty5 on Mar 26, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its not that far fetched

Given he wont hit .330 most likely but .300/.350/.520 is probably well within reach. Look at David Wrights first year, he only had 30 triple A games and 60 at AA. There are many more who came up and started hitting right away. I wouldnt be the least bit suprised if he is a top 5 third baseman next year. He could easily match David Wrights numbers next year.

by Kanst42 on Mar 27, 2007 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another Projection

Games 150
At-bats 580
Runs 90
Hits 175
batting average .302
doubles 45
triples 2
homers 28
RBI 90
walks 50
strikeouts 120
stolen bases 2
caught stealing 3
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? NO

by Sparky133 on Mar 27, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Alex Gordon, Superhero

Suffice it to say I'm optimistic in all areas except batting average and team-dependent stuff. Maybe not so many steals, as I'd guess he's probably getting them more via baseball smarts than blazing speed.

Games 156
At-bats 604
Runs 84
Hits 171
batting average .283
doubles 34
triples 1
homers 35
RBI 99
walks 92
strikeouts 135
stolen bases 7
caught stealing 2
AL Rookie of the Year? Absolutely.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Mar 27, 2007 9:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, also . . .

I am aware that this is wildly optimistic. I just like to think positive, especially since he's on my Scoresheet team. And it is possible.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Mar 27, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

too much is made...

....of the fact that Gordon's home park is pretty neutral. The Colorado Rockies only play 50% of their games in a hitter's paradise; Gordon played 30-40% of his in hitter-friendly environments.

Also, I'm just not buying him having an all-time elite rookie season. Or I'm certainly not ready to PREDICT it, whether I'll believe it if/when it happens.

Just because I don't think he'll do it this year doesn't mean I don't think he'll do it eventually though.

Also, I think his steals are almost certain to disappear at the big-league level.

Sorry for such a negative projection, but I'm with Metty all the way -- some people here need a reality check. I know the people of Kansas City are impatient, but you're going to drive yourself insane if you put this kind of immediate expectations on this guy.

Games 153
At-bats 559
Runs 75
Hits 157
batting average .281
doubles 32
triples 3
homers 17
RBI 79
walks 66
strikeouts 129
stolen bases 7
caught stealing 2
AL Rookie of the Year, yes or no? Absolutely not. 1) I think he's the third most likely candidate, 2) I think Dice-K is about as good a "preseason candidate" for the ROY as there's ever been, and 3) you should ALWAYS choose the field over an individual in preseason ROYs (check out, for instance, BA's top 20 rookies from past seasons).

Overall, a .281/.399/.440 line. Pretty damn impressive for a rookie. He's no George Brett, though.

by bleedjaxblue on Mar 27, 2007 9:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs