Phil Hughes Crystal Ball

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2007 11:15 AM EST in News

Crystal Ball: Phil Hughes

A Crystal Ball for Phil Hughes is dangerous for my sanity. First of all, he has zero major league experience, so this is even more highly speculative than your average CB. Secondly, Yankee fans seem to think that Hughes will turn into something like a combination of Walter Johnson and Roger Clemens, and that he'll do this right off the bat in the majors. Hughes is an outstanding prospect, certainly, the best overall pitching prospect in baseball in my opinion. But he's still just a prospect. There are all kinds of things that can go wrong with him. Hughes' PECOTA comps include guys like Bert Blyleven, Jim Maloney, and Don Drysdale...but they also include Rick Ankiel, Bobby Bradley, and Erv Palica.

So basically, whatever I do with this CB will be criticized by someone. If'it is too optimistic, the statheads will start screaming TINSTAAPP!!!!!. If it is too pessimistic, Yankees fans will put blog posts all over the internet about anti-Yankee bias on my part.
Bottom line: fire away all you want. I want discussion; that is the point of all this. But I'm not going to take it personally no matter what anyone says about it, positive or negative. It is simply one possible outcome, knowing what we know about Hughes today.

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Comments

Playing it safe

I think you did a nice job of appeasing Yankees fans on this on. Has some good years, and surprisingly comes back from injuries nicely before a regression. By no means is this a HOF Career but he has a few All Star years there. Earlier on he might win more games then in the latter half near his injury.

What type of injury are you expecting?

by Metty5 on Mar 2, 2007 11:20 AM EST 0 recs

elbow

the standard TJ although his recovery takes longer than normal. The basic gist here is that he peaks early.

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2007 11:24 AM EST 0 recs

Overall

I like the CB. The K rate seems consistent with his MLE's, and he should be able to compile the W's with that Yankee lineup placing runners across the plate at the rate they do.

Tough projection, but I think it's as good of a guess as we'll get about him right now. Interesting to see you have him sticking with the Yanks as long as you do. Then again, if he posts those numbers, they will pay him accordingly.

by guru4u on Mar 2, 2007 11:52 AM EST 0 recs

Great crystal ball John!

I think this is about right. Hughes will be great, but he is no savior. Yankees fans should be delighted by your projection, because if this is correct there is probably at least WS title between 2009 and 2011. That is a pretty good comp with Curt Schilling accept Hughes starts out alot faster but a little higher ERA, and Schilling could be a HOF'er

by dlpme77 on Mar 2, 2007 11:54 AM EST 0 recs

Are you serious?

He's not going to be better than Johan? gasp

by yoda1 on Mar 2, 2007 12:06 PM EST 0 recs

I'd be 38

when he retires. I feel old.

Good crystal ball, John. There are some very solid seasons in there.

by mdickson on Mar 2, 2007 12:09 PM EST 0 recs

38...

I do believe by saying that, you made many of us other readers feel old.

by Boxkutter on Mar 2, 2007 12:10 PM EST up 0 recs

asdf

Hughes may well be the first player younger than me (by 22 days) to make his MLB debut.

by BenB on Mar 2, 2007 4:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Felix was 19 in 2005

by Fett42 on Mar 2, 2007 4:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Nevermind

Just understood that

by Fett42 on Mar 2, 2007 4:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Andy Petitte

win a year head start

by Trenchtown on Mar 2, 2007 12:14 PM EST 0 recs

+1

i though the same thing, minus the 2011 season

by nyybaseball99 on Mar 2, 2007 12:27 PM EST up 0 recs

looks like the injury

puts a damper on what could be a HOF career, o

overall, i think this looks like a very common career path for an elite pitching prospect ...definitely a much more common one than completely living up to their billing

starts out real strong obviously, looks like a top 5 pitcher in the game, maybe the best, for about three years, then the injury derails him to an extent...he's still effective and more of an innings eater, but not what he once was probably caused by a loss in velocity and/or stuff

and c'mon john, no need to lump all yankee fans together ;-)

if you ask me if i'd take this career, i probably would considering the high risk factor with every pitching prospect, but of course i want more considering his abilities (and i think any fan of any team with an elite prospect would say the same)

by nyybaseball99 on Mar 2, 2007 12:26 PM EST 0 recs

Yankee fan here

I think you did a very good job, I think he gets a few more wins in his Yankee years. Other than that solid, some CY young caliber years some pedestrian ones, whoever said Pettite did a fair assessment.

by Kanst42 on Mar 2, 2007 12:37 PM EST 0 recs

Early flameout

I don't think that he'll be that good for that long early.

I also think that he'll pitch at the 4.00-4.50 ERA level late into his mid to late 30s.

He seems like the kind of guy who will make adjustments and work at being a pitcher to remain effective for a while. He has very good control, which should enable him to remain effective as his pure stuff declines.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Mar 2, 2007 12:47 PM EST 0 recs

Mike Mussina

Looks like a Mussina-type career...I think that's accurate...

I defend the Pedro for Delino trade.

by Nolan on Mar 2, 2007 1:03 PM EST 0 recs

Although it might be age 25

when he goes for 20+, I think he will have one of those sublime seasons where everything clicks, he wins a lot of games and everything goes right.

Im not even a yankee fan, I just think he might be a guy with a 22 win season with 2.75 ERA 240 IP 220 K's etc.

by wildthang on Mar 2, 2007 3:20 PM EST 0 recs

Bailey V Hughes

Who fairs better in the crystal ball Phillip Hughes or Homer Bailey?

In Homer Bailey we trust.

by justin007000 on Mar 2, 2007 3:24 PM EST 0 recs

Reasonable

I don't think even the biggest Yankee fanboy can complain with a projection of over 150 wins, for any pitching prospect, be it Hughes, Brien Taylor, or Dave Eiland.

The House That Dewey Built http://www.deweyshouse.com

by SmokeyJoeWood on Mar 2, 2007 3:38 PM EST 0 recs

re:

brien taylor is a stud, didnt he win 19 games for the bombers last year?

by nyybaseball99 on Mar 2, 2007 6:07 PM EST up 0 recs

nah

that was RJ

Dukes is Jurastically better than Bradley. After all Dukes has been playing baseball ever since T-ball.

by pedrophile on Mar 2, 2007 11:40 PM EST up 0 recs

I like

how you've been sending the socal guys back to the angels and dodgers late in their career ... nice touch.

by sanchez101 on Mar 2, 2007 4:25 PM EST 0 recs

Nice middle of the road projection

Jim Maloney...with a tail end of the career thanks to TJ.

by Mike Green on Mar 2, 2007 4:42 PM EST 0 recs

No career saves

What a total bust....

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 2, 2007 6:43 PM EST 0 recs

Hughes greater than Santana?

don't think personally would go along with that..
but heck, being ballsy sometimes means being right

a prospect's never done nothing good..
but never done nothing BAD either
that's why it's called ...duh.. a PROJECTION?

if there is an upcoming pitcher in the minors who's right now better than santana (and he WOULD BE in the minors cuz teams don't generally accelerate stud pitchers)...

bet he's sporting something like a .9 whip and bet his name starts with an H

but think John's projection is probably right on.. 4 era is actually excellent in that division to start off,gradual improvement, and if the yankee's let his innings spurt up over 200 like that (which they probably will) will be missing some time along the line..

by dryice on Mar 2, 2007 7:24 PM EST 0 recs

Yeah

Cole Hamels is pretty good

by mroak89 on Mar 4, 2007 2:16 AM EST up 0 recs

The strikeout rate is...

a bit too bearish I think. But it looks reasonable otherwise. I'm not sure why the projection expects him to cease being a useful pitcher at age 30...I don't agree with that part.

Some people bring the Bible to college...we bring Moneyball.

by uga007 on Mar 2, 2007 9:08 PM EST 0 recs

I don't think it is unfair...

to expect at least ONE season of 8 K/9 or for him to average more than 7 K/9 for his career.

Some people bring the Bible to college...we bring Moneyball.

by uga007 on Mar 2, 2007 9:09 PM EST up 0 recs

yeah

i sort of think hughes will have more strikeouts early in his career, and maybe a slightly better ERA in his age 23-25 seasons. on the other hand, i agree with the overall career path in the CB and i even think he might not bounce back from injury quite as well.

by jpahk on Mar 2, 2007 11:47 PM EST up 0 recs

"cease being a useful pitcher at age 30"

Other that 2019 of course (which looks like a lucky season anyway)

Some people bring the Bible to college...we bring Moneyball.

by uga007 on Mar 2, 2007 9:11 PM EST 0 recs

Hmmm

The Yanks should have never extended his contract in 2016 for another two years at $48M for 2017 and $52M for 2018.

by Con on Mar 3, 2007 2:18 AM EST 0 recs

Well, John

You can't please them all...

Overthrowing isn't the only way to get hurt, buddy. I'm not sure having your parents call you "Little Old Man" when you're a kid means you're going to have a Hall of Fame career.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 3, 2007 11:55 AM EST 0 recs

shut up

You say that like you've watched multiple of his starts and know his pitch sequences. All you know is what you hear from scouts that gets said in News Papers and other sites. The kid hasn't thrown one pitch in the Majors and he is a HOF... I'm not a yankee hater but SHUT UP! I'd be happy with this CB.

by Metty5 on Mar 3, 2007 1:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Are you sure?

Granted, I don't know any other poster on this site, but assuming that you don't know this fellow either, how can you feel qualified to say this fellow knows nothing about Hughes? Maybe he has seen several of his starts...

Don't be so quick to judge.

by GuyinNY on Mar 3, 2007 1:53 PM EST up 0 recs

i'm not saying i do know

But that is a statement that someone who is a scout makes. I don't think he's ever made any claim about seeing his starts. And something like the futures games don't count because we all saw that. And its only one innings. And he is always really pro yankee, so i think its safe to say he is an annoyed yankee fan. But he can correct me if thats not true.

by Metty5 on Mar 3, 2007 2:07 PM EST up 0 recs

I think you did miss the point!

Hello Tazmania05,

I think you did miss the point; I mentioned something similar in regards to Jeremy Sowers - John's main point was that he thinks Sowers could overexert himself in his one great year that John projected in his CB. I think he's thinking something similar could happen to Hughes.

In fact, John thinks that Sowers probably won't even recover to what he was before the injury, whereas I see he thinks that Hughes could rebound and post another 20+ win season, even after the injury, so I still think he values Hughes highly, despite the injury.

Like Hughes, Sowers also has great intelligence and maturity as well, and he doesn't have the power fastball Hughes has to rely on.

Two main points:

This is a CB - it's not to be taken too seriously.
Even though Sowers and Hughes both compose themselves well, know what they can do with their stuff, etc., it's not impossible for either of them to overexert themselves, which could lead to serious injuries that take a full season or so to recover. With both having great mechanics, I would think the chances are less than those pitchers with poor mechanics (Liriano comes to mind, among others,) but it's still possible that ANY pitcher can succumb to injury, good mechanics or bad mechanics.

This is just what John thinks, and being that other similarly good mechanic pitchers have gone down to serious injuries, especially after having a great season, it's not impossible for Hughes or Sowers to suffer the same thing. That's all John is saying.

He may be right, he may be wrong - this is an educated opinion, but still, just an opinion, not absolute fact or truth.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Mar 3, 2007 6:12 PM EST up 0 recs

One other thing to keep in mind about Hughes!

Hello again Tazmania05,

The other thing I forgot to mention about Hughes that might have factored into John's thinking that Hughes might injure himself down the line is that Hughes did have shoulder inflammation at the end of the 2005 season.

Even though Hughes looks to have fully recovered from it, injuries, especially shoulder injuries, have to be monitored and factored into any analysis. I know many have kept Indians RHP Adam Miller's rankings lower because of his elbow injury, even though he looks to have fully recovered from it.

(I find it a bit amazing that few talk about or factor in Hughes' injury, while virtually everyone talks about Miller's, even though a shoulder injury is usually considered more serious and difficult to come back from than an elbow injury - just something to keep in mind when looking at the disparity between Hughes and Miller; in fact, Jim Callis the other day in a chat said that ceiling-wise and stuff-wise, Miller is as good as any of the others - Hughes, Bailey, and Gallardo; it's just the elbow injury that knocks him down in the rankings - you can see where it was referenced here - look at the post by "indianinkslinger.")

So, that might be another reason why John thinks Hughes could suffer a injury that causes him to miss a season - ANY pitcher, no matter how clean his mechanics are, can suffer an injury that causes one to miss a season or more. It's just trying to determine who is more likely to go through that experience, which is anything but an easy task.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Mar 3, 2007 6:44 PM EST up 0 recs

It's a freak accident

involving a golf ball and some cherry soda. Totally obliterates his entire right arm -- it's that very innate HOF talent that allows him to make the switch to throw lefty and salvage an otherwise downhill career by becoming the first pitcher in MLB history to win double digit games with both left and right arms. Bless his Moyer-esque makeup and Jesus-like redeeming qualities.

by mroak89 on Mar 4, 2007 2:19 AM EST up 0 recs

Hmm

Did you just use a childhood nickname given by his parents as evidence to back up your argument?

For those of you who have been paying attention, a question:

If Travis Snider (as seen in his father's eyes) were to bat against Phil Hughes (as perceived by his parents), what is the outcome of the AB?

by mrkupe on Mar 3, 2007 2:35 PM EST 0 recs

I simulated a Snider-Hughes showdown:

Snider hits a ground-rule double on a 4-2 count but Hughes, miraculously, gets credit for the double eagle.

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/J-R-B --- Projections, prospect spotlights, fantasy bits, and witty banter. Feb 20: Bullpen Bolsterin' in ATL

by JRB on Mar 3, 2007 4:49 PM EST up 0 recs

A little bias maybe?

I do like how every other young pitcher is an injury risk but not your boy. Come off it, John is predicting 200 wins, 2000+ K's for a pitcher that has never thrown a single pitch in the majors. That's pretty generous. You have NO idea, at this point, what he's going to do in the majors. You can't even use a small sample size of dominance to back up your claim.

Yes, Hughes might win 300 games. Then again, he might get in a taxi accident and only win 30. I think gambling that he'll get nearly 200 is pretty conciliatory. Remember, David Cone was an EXCELLENT pitcher on a number of World Series teams. He BARELY made it to 200 wins.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 3, 2007 4:20 PM EST 0 recs

David Cone

Oops, my bad. Cone didn't even make it to 200 wins. Proves my point a little more, I think.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 3, 2007 4:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Yankee lifer?

Wow, are you bias or what? It's so funy how Yankee fans get all riled up over something as little and meaningless as a crystal ball prediction.

Phil Hughes is a good prospect, but right now that is all that he is -- a prospect. Learn to have fun when it comes to baseball because if you don't you may end up looking like Don Zimmer, lol...

by loduca213 on Mar 4, 2007 4:46 PM EST 0 recs

Don Zimmer

... looks like he's had some fun in his day.

by webb17 on Mar 6, 2007 12:26 PM EST up 0 recs

What causes the ERA jump?

I'm looking at Hughes' age 30-31 seasons that you projected. His K rate dips a bit, but still remainds solid, and his BB/HR rates barely change, yet his ERA rises by a run.

I'm interested as to what you think this jump would eventually be caused by.

Good, solid crystal ball there. I'm a Yankee fan, and while I think the 3 missed season from Tommy John is just fun speculation, I am encouraged by your opinion that Hughes will put up 3 Cy Young caliber seasons in a row (hopefully with some more ace-like performances in the World Series with the team) at such a young age.

I would be interested to see your opinion of Hughes' potential in his prime years (26-28, while injured) if he instead stays healthy.

by DownFromNJ on Mar 5, 2007 11:15 AM EST 0 recs

What you're all forgetting...

...is that Hughes is so super intelligent(That's apparently his best quality - better than his pitches) that even if he does get hurt he will perform the TJ surgery on himself!

After all his uncle once called him "the little surgeon" after seeing him play a flawless game of Operation.

He will then proceed to use his amazing psychic powers to destroy Fenway Park.

I tell you this Super Intelligent Freak must be stopped! We can't wait for injuries b/c its now clear that Hughes is too intelligent to get injured... at least according to Yankee homers...

by alskor on Mar 7, 2007 2:27 PM EST 0 recs