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Ben Sheets Prospect Retro

Ben Sheets Prospect Retro

Ben Sheets was drafted in the first round by the Milwaukee Brewers in 1999, out of Northeast Louisiana State University. The 10th overall pick in the draft, he was considered to be a very fine overall pitching prospect, with a good combination of stuff and polish. His pro debut was decent: 36 innings split between the Pioneer League and the California League, with a combined 40/16 K/BB and a 4.04 ERA. I gave him a Grade B in the 2000 book, a fairly conservative rating. B+ might have been more appropriate, but I was less aggressive about grading just-drafted players back then than I am now.

Sheets began 2000 for Double-A Huntsville, going 5-3, 1.88 in 13 starts. Promoted to Triple-A, he went 3-5, 2.87 in 13 starts, with a 59/31 K/BB. He was a hero in the Olympics that year, throwing a shutout in the gold medal game against Cuba. People immediately started rating him as one of the top rookies for 2001, projecting him to be a Rookie of the Year candidate and a pitcher certain to do well right away.

I was impressed with his stuff, certainly. . .92-95 MPH fastball, nasty curve, good changeup. But his component ratios didn't match the scouting reports or the ERA: his K/BB and K/IP were not very impressive in Triple-A. In the 2001 book, I wrote "I love Sheets' scouting profile, but I'm not 100 percent convinced that he will do well in the majors right away." All that said, I still gave him a Grade A rating, and ranked him as the top right-handed pitching prospect in the game. But I advised people that Sheets would probably have some adjustment problems to begin with.

He went 11-10 in 25 starts for the Brewers in 2001, but with a 4.76 ERA and allowing 166 hits in 151 innings. He improved slightly in '02 and '03, then took a huge step forward in '04 with a 2.70 ERA and an ungodly 264/32 K/BB. Injuries have slowed him the past two years, but when healthy he is a very valuable pitcher.

Sheets' minor league track record was solid, but not spectacular, at least not on a component basis. But despite my reputation as a stathead type, I don't judge players by statistics alone. I thought he was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in 2001, even though his K/BB and K/IP weren't impressive in Triple-A. But at the same time, the not-great components did warn us that he would have some adjustments in the majors, and indeed he did. Scouting and stats, they go together. . .you need both to properly evaluate a player. Sheets is an excellent example of that.

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i've always been interested in who was the better draft pick in 1999, barry zito at #9 overall or sheets at #10. at this point sheets looks like the better pitcher, but only when he is actually healthy enough to take the mound. it's extremely tough to argue with what the A's got out of their 6.5 years of pre-FA zito, however: 222 consecutive starts, 1430 innings, a 3.55 ERA and a cy young award.

by jpahk on Feb 8, 2007 11:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sheets in High A
 I saw Sheets pitch one of his few games for Stockton (High A California League) on the road against San Bernardino.
 Though it was a few years ago, and it was only one start (not much of a sample size) he was dominating with his stuff and had no business in the Cal League.

by diceshooter60 on Feb 8, 2007 11:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

My favorite pitcher
I don't know what it is about him but he is by far my favorite pitcher to watch today. He works fast. Throws strikes. Makes hitters look silly with his benders and blows the fastball by them.

I am hoping his injury days are behind him. He pitched strongly down the stretch despite not having his best stuff so I am confident that he will rebound big in 07.

by yoda1 on Feb 9, 2007 1:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Also...
my favorite pitcher by far. I have what some would call "man love" for Ben Sheets. I even pitch like Ben Sheets.

My post is going to sound alot like Yoda's. I'm really hoping his injury history is behind him, because his last season was sick. Put up a K rate over 9 per 9, had like 14 walks in 110+ innings, and gave up HRs at the lowest rate he's ever done before.

When healthy this guy is arguably the best pitcher in the NL, and one of the top 5 in baseball. Hopefully he just stays healthy.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 9, 2007 10:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don't see much of him but...
...does he have trouble pitching from the stretch?  His multi-year record with runners on first is poor.  It could be a mechanical issue or it could be just a loss of focus while attempting to hold on baserunners.

If he is healthy, and learns how to deal with baserunners, he will be one of the top 5 in baseball.  

by Mike Green on Feb 9, 2007 10:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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