Reds Farm System Impressions

by John Sickels on Dec 4, 2007 5:40 PM EST in News Comment 18 comments

Working on the Reds farm system today.

Good Lord.

This system is loaded. You have the top quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, but even beyond them there is a good combination of performance guys and projection guys. My initial run through came up with 49 names worth writing about. I have narrowed that down to 39, which is the most I can put into the book. Even that, some of the guys I cut I wish I could put in.

Take heart, Reds fans. You have a lot to look forward to.

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Great news to hear John

When I did my Reds Top 40 prospects last month, I had a list of 55 guys that I needed to cut down to 40. A week after coming out with the list I had answered so many questions about it that I almost changed the entire 30-50 around.

Cant wait to see what you come up with.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 4, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah!

As a Reds' fan, who follows other systems only sporadically, I didn't know how exactly it compared to other organizations. Certainly they'd improved, but the barren system of just 2-3 years ago set the bar pretty low. I love to hear that not only have they improved but they're looking stacked even in comparison to everybody else.

I enjoyed reading your (Doug's) intra-system rankings a couple weeks ago; can't wait to see how they grade out here (Sickels) judged more against the minor-leagues as a whole.

-DA

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 4, 2007 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

This is exactly why I'm looking forward to seeing this. Doug does a great job at his blog, but it's still biased. It's impossible to cover 1 team so extensively and not even have the slightest bias. Sickels is a more objective view and is able to compare the Reds with players outside the organization more fairly.

by mlbfan30 on Dec 4, 2007 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sort of

Yeah, I meant more that Doug ranked the prospects and wrote some very insightful comments/reviews; so that's a perspective of how they rate against each other. Bruce higher than Bailey, Bailey higher than Stubbs, Stubbs higher than, I dunno, Maloney, etc. The letter grades here are a different perspective, a layer of info that helps rate their chances for success and indirectly compares them to other prospects across the spectrum.

I'm definitely biased/focused on just the one team; which is why I look here for a more macro view, I guess, of how these prospects and this system are doing relative to everyone else.

I'm amused by the fact that even Sickels, once he stepped back and surveyed the landscape, was taken aback by the depth in Cincinnati's system. "Good Lord." Very heartening, especially to think how it's been O'Brien and Krivsky that have overseen this turnaround, and that despite his maddeningly opaque style Krivsky must be doing something right.

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 4, 2007 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dusty baker

a whole lot to look forward to, eh?

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 4, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nothing New

In '03 the Cubs had the 3rd best system according to BA and then dropped to 7th the next year. There's no doubt in my mind that he'll find new and exciting ways to screw up the Reds prospects. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Dec 4, 2007 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who

did he screw up? Sure he drove Prior/Wood/Clement into the ground, but the Cubs system was over-rated in retrospect. Guzman was ranked #1 in 2003 - injuries in the minors did him in. Brownlie sucked and was over-rated. The position players - Bobby Hill, Dubois, Dopirak... I'm not sure why these guys got as much hype as they did.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Dec 4, 2007 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't speak for the others...

but I would suspect Dopiraks 39 homeruns at the age of 20 led to his ranking(and rightfully so).

by tt68 on Dec 5, 2007 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hee Seop Choi

Was BA's #1, not Guzman. I'd say that at the time, Choi was a more highly regarded prospect than Votto is now. I agree that with 20/20 hindsight the Cubs' system was overrated, but perhaps we'll be saying the same thing about the Reds in a few years. Looking at the top 30, there were an astounding number of injuries to the pitchers in their system. Guzman, Sisco, Hagerty, Justin Jones, Billy Petrick, Ricky Nolasco, Chad Blasko all lost PT in later years. Brendan Harris is a nice little player and was in the news recently. :) Reynel Pinto could still develop into something too.

Just off the top 30 are a couple of other players who've done better though, Rich Hill, Sergio Mitre & Ryan Theriot. Add in Will Ohman and Ronny Cedeno and you've got some depth there if not any stars as of yet. BTW, Bobby Hill isn't in the book because he lost their rookie eligibility the year earlier. And they had DuBois in the Blue Jay's system that year. But they were able to turn Hill into Am-Ram which is another way for a team's farm system to help the ML club. The same can be said for Choi. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Dec 5, 2007 6:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That does

NOTHING to support a case against Baker. If anything you've just supported what I said - Baker had nothing to do with the failure of the Cubs minors system.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Dec 6, 2007 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

agree. too much is made about Baker and prospects. Other than being hard on pitchers he doesn't deserve the shit thrown at him. Most those Cubs guys got hurt or flamed out in the minors, you can't blame that on Baker. Patterson was rushed before Baker got there. Same can be said about his time in SF. I can't think of any players he hurt. He just has an old school, draconian philosophy on pitching and will ride out arms.

by ScottAZ on Dec 5, 2007 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dusty

He didn't have anything to do with running the Cubs minor league system into the ground as you are correct in your assessment that most of the system was overrated.

However, he was at the helm when two once in a decade arms were ruined (Wood and Prior) which earns him a poor reputation in regards to handling young pitchers, deserved or not. I gotta believe that Homer Bailey (or even more likely his agent) ain't sleeping all that well.

by Sage Sam on Dec 7, 2007 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

the guys that people thought wouldn't pan out or were injured have finally started to play up to their abilty. Maybe Ty Howington can make a comeback??? lol jk but Chris Gruler is still in the Reds system.

by Havok1517 on Dec 4, 2007 7:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

system might take a hit potentially

The Cincinnati Enquirer believes the Reds will make a run at Erik Bedard, perhaps using Homer Bailey and Joey Votto as bait.
Jay Bruce would be off the table, but Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion might not be. The Reds do have the talent to pull off a deal if they're willing to give up Bailey.
-Rotoworld.com

by Bravesin07 on Dec 4, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmmm...

I wonder if they would deal Edwin in the deal? They have Frazier and Fransisco in the minors. I honestly think Frazier will move very quickly through the system. He is quite polished.

by Havok1517 on Dec 4, 2007 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fransisco & Frazier

I know he is viewed as a high upside type of guy, but I really think he is a non factor. His plate discipline is just horrible.
161SO/23BB last year.
His 25HR at age 20 was nice, but even with that power his OPS was still a relatively low .764
He also doesn't project to stay at 3B

Frazier is a great prospect though. He hit .320/.400/.540 last year with 26SO/20BB. He also played SS and can probably be decent at 3B. It looks like he's an extra base hit machine (like Bruce) and could possibly the #1 Reds prospect after the big 4 graduate.

by mlbfan30 on Dec 5, 2007 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree on Frazier and partially on Francisco

Francisco has all the tools to stick at 3B. He can make the above average play and has an absolute rocket for an arm. He has consistancy problems though. As for his plate discipline.... its VERY bad. His power is for real though, the ball jumps off of his bat. If someone could get him to just stop swinging at everything, he could be a real hitter.... just not sure someone can get him to do that. The Dragons manager said it was a priority at the start of the season to get him to work on his plate discipline, and well, it didn't go so well.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 5, 2007 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs