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Angel Villalona

A New Year's Gift From John.

John says that there is a lot of interest in this guy, so here is the book comment about him as it currently stands. He says that he is ranking Villalona ahead of Carlos Triunfel. Happy New Year!

Angel Villalona, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Bats: R    Throws: R     HT: 6-3     WT: 210    DOB: August 13, 1990

OK, first I have to get something out of the way. I get email from Giants fans asking me why I don't rate Villalona as among the top ten prospects in baseball. One email went so far as to say he was the best prospect in the game, and that I was a moron for not admitting that. I think what is happening here is that Giants fans are so hungry for a young impact hitter that they are falling head-over-heels for Villanona a bit earlier than they should. Please, don't listen to media propaganda. Just look at the facts yourself. Villalona is just 17 years old. He's huge, big, strong, muscular. He should hit for great power in the future, but right now his strike zone judgment is very mediocre. This is not a damning flaw by any means. He's just 17, he has time to figure that out, but he needs to do it. His defense is also an issue, and he is unpolished in most non-hitting phases of the game. There is also concern that his body may max out at a young age, and that he will add fat, not muscle, as he gets older. Now this may sound like I am denigrating Villalona. I am not. Far from it. He IS one of the best power-hitting prospects in the game, and a year from now he will probably be in the top twenty overall. But he is not Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera yet. He is not in the Jay Bruce or Justin Upton or Colby Rasmus category yet. Even at his best, he won't be a complete player, lacking the defense and speed to be a Seven Skill guy. This doesn't mean he can't be a terrific slugger, an All-Star, or MVP candidate down the line, but we need to take it easy and not create unrealistic expectations just yet. Let's give the kid some time to get used to North America, to figure out the strike zone, to polish up his defense. Understand that a Grade B+ is extremely high praise for a player in rookie ball. Settle down, enjoy the show, it should be interesting.

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I remember
In high school, my friend was 6'3" and 210 as a sophomore.  Muscular, fast.
Started at defensive end, went to state in the shot put and the mile relay.  Nice combo!

But we all knew early on that he didn't have the athletic ability to excel in the skill sports.  No hand/eye coordination, no lateral movement.

He went to college in computer science and never played sports there.  Now he installs HVAC.  

by doubledribble on Dec 31, 2007 10:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Villalona
I went to an Arizona League game this past summer specifically to see Angel Villalona. He did not disappoint, hitting an opposite field bomb. That said, he did not look like a guy that was two years away from the show. His 3b defense was little league caliber, although he had a strong arm. He's also huge already. I mean Prince Fielder huge. It wouldn't suprise me if doesn't sniff full season ball until 2009 and the upper minors until 2010. With a guy that far off, I don't care how much talent he's got, he's not a top prospect. Not only do you have to discount future production (OK, the Giants don't), but there is just so much that can go wrong between now and him making the upper minors, let alone the Show. There is just too huge of a chance that this guy doesn't amount to anything. I think B+ is a very generous grade, and will likely be the highest of anybody that far out. Chances are, he'll be a B+ at best again next year.

by rwperu34 on Dec 31, 2007 11:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

wow
"One email went so far as to say he was the best prospect in the game, and that I was a moron for not admitting that."

Maybe he should take a look in the mirror if he really thinks that?

by doublestix on Jan 1, 2008 12:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks John!
I appreciate your post greatly!  Yes, Giants fans are going overboard over Angel, but is it really that much more than any other team's fans when they get a great prospect who is way down in the minors?  I've read other teams' sites before about their top prospects (for my fantasy league) and this just seems like a universal condition, not one specific to Giants fans.  Though the fact that we haven't had a position prospect in a long while probably do get some of them up in a tizzy.

I would also add that there appears to be a wave of new Giants fans, joining in the 2000's, and newbies like that sometimes 1) think they know it all, 2) don't mind telling you that they know it all, 3) the internet seems to embolden people who don't actually know anything, 4) lack social graces, and 5) don't know the history of baseball, let alone the Giants.  

It reminds me of the company I used to work for, new kids from college would come in and think they know how things should be run in a consulting firm, how things should be in any company, and their naivety left them very unhappy with what I considered a good situation for a company.  There are no perfect companies, but there are good situations and bad situations, and hopefully since then they've learned the difference.

To rwperu34:  yes, long way away from making the majors, but you can say that about any high school prospect out there, or even most college prospects, the vast majority of players will take 4-6 years to make the majors, if ever.

Here's what I think you need to take account of about what you saw in Villalona, rw:  he was 16 years old competing in a league of mainly 18-19 year olds (from what I remember).  So if he look like a little leaguer, well, he's that age.  And he will be 17 for 2008.  And Miguel Cabrera still is not impressing anyone at 3B, but his hitting makes up for that greatly.  But other players figure out how to play defense in college, when they are in their late teens, early 20's, so he might do that too, it is up to him to take that upon himself and develop.

Still, he hit well enough to be among the upper tier of the league, prompting Baseball America to rank him the best prospect in the league.  

And I've heard all the talk about him being huge, and since you saw him, I'll admit that I've never seen him in person, but the pictures I've seen of him this season did not show a body as bad as I was led to believe, he did not look fat and out of shape and all that, certainly not Prince Fielder huge, but again, I'm judging from photos, not from actual experience.  Perhaps John or someone else who saw Villalona can share their opinions on Villalona's body size.  And if he turns out to be comparable with Prince Fielder, I think I can handle that, easily.

Upper minors in two years (SS in 2008, A/A+ in 2009, then make AA in 2010), when he is only 19 years old, is pretty special in my mind.  Justin Upton got so much accolades for making the upper minors then majors this year at 20.  Heck, making the upper minors in your early 20's - let alone teens - is pretty darn good, there are not that many players doing that every year.

And if you ignore his skill set that he has shown thus far, because of the huge chance that this guy doesn't amount to anything, then I have to assume that you don't really count any prospect who are below AA as a good prospect, so you would have missed players in the pre-season, like Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey, Joba Chamberlain, et al, who rose up through their systems fast and made the majors.  And you will basically ignore any rising prospect under 20 years old, like Delmon Young, Joe Maurer, Justin Upton, who showed a great set of skills, but hadn't made the upper minors yet.

And that's fine if you use the tactic that in prospecting for ballplayers, you go for players who are relatively more ready for the majors.  

But I think most people want to know earlier than that who are the prospects we should put on our radar as potential major leaguers, with the knowing caveat that they still have a lot of development to go.  

Sure, he might hit a speed bump and fall flat on his face, but that doesn't negate the physical gifts that have allowed him to play well against players who are 2-3 years older than he is, players who are more physically mature than he is, yet he's the one who is better than they are.

I think most fans would take it if one of their prospects is rated B+, that's still very good, I think there would be no shame if he made that grade again in 2008.  If he never make an A/A- grade, then I think that would be disappointing, but he'll be only 17 next season, I can be patient, a B+ would be great as that means he continued to do well against players much older than he is.

I think the fact that his grade is the highest of anybody that far out shows how special his skill set is among those who follow prospects professionally.  Skills that are so special that in last season's rankings, Villalona ranked in some analyst's Top 100 rankings, even though he hadn't played one out or AB in professional ball yet.

It's like the difference between a Mozart and regular piano players.  He might be raw and still a long way to go to get to being a special player, but he has shown the skills at an early age that suggests that he could be a great one, not just good, but great.  Yes, he probably fall far short of that, but until that happens, his special skills should be acknowledged to the extent that he exhibits them.  Thus far, it is great enough for many experts to rate him very highly.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 1, 2008 1:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mozart?
Please.  Phil Cavarretta he isn't.

Me, I think our host is right: Giants fans haven't seen a really promising hitting prospect in so long, it's easy to think Villalona deserves more.  Given he's only just been in rookie ball, despite his promise, I would more likely push him down to a B than up to an A-.

As a fan, I think the team should be spending more money signing Villalonas, and less on decrepit, low-obp hackers.  That doesn't raise the kid's grade.  If he's developed credible defense and is pasting the PCL in 2010, he's an A prospect.  Right now, he just can't be, unless you believe the implicit discount rate for present value is 0%.

by wcw on Jan 1, 2008 3:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two Things
Stop drinking the giants juice.  angel isn't even half the prospect that Justin is.  Saying Justin played the upper minors this year at 20 is an utter and outright lie.  Justin Upton didn't turn 20 until the end of August so A) he played the upper minors at 19 and B) hit a homer as a teenager in the Majors something few players have done in the last 50 years.

by Mookie08 on Jan 1, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"An utter and outright lie"?
Um, calm down. He made a mistake about when Justin Upton turned 20 - that tends to be what we call a mistake, not a lie. Nothing in that post deserved the harshness of this reponse

by OldProspects on Jan 1, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
Yes, it was a mistake, making my point even more about the other poster - who was making his un-"Giants-biased" estimation when he think Villalona would make the upper minors by 19.

The other point I should have made about Justin Upton was that he was hyped from the start that he was among the top prospects and kept that status by rising pretty quickly through the minors.  If Villalona is expected to duplicate that, then he should get a high grade.

Lastly, I forgot to mention that I'm OK with B, B-, whatever, I am just glad the Giants have him.  Arguing about the grade for a player this young and experienced seems futile unless you have years of experience to back up your assertion, particularly experience watching the best high school players in the nation play, so that you have a basic idea in your head what 16-17-18 year olds can and cannot do, and what past prospects with similar skill sets can do.

Both John and a competing well-known analyst I read have rated Villalona highly, and that's good enough for me.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 2, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

seems about right
The best way I can think of to grade Villalona is to think about the grade he might be a year from now. If he dominates the SAL league at 17, he's definitely an A-. That's what John gave Fernando Martinez when he did it. If he flops, he still gets a pass because of his age and his tools still earn him a straight B, IMO. Anywhere in between and I think he's a B+ again.

My initial reaction was to think B+ was too high, but when I thought about it, a straight B just doesn't seem right. There's almost no way Villalona ranks lower than a B next year. There is, however, a chance he ranks significantly higher. Based on that potential, you have to bump him up to a B+.

by jeck on Jan 1, 2008 8:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

A happy new year to you John
and to Gerri (apologies if misspelled) and the rest of your family...

by SLK on Jan 1, 2008 9:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I absolutely love this guy
But someone needs to take him under their wing and try to help him mature physically and mentally the right ways. If he is constantly shown that hard work and dedication is the way to go in his time on and off the field he could be amazing. The guy has tools that very few players to ever play the game have ever had at his age. I'm just excited to see what this guys future holds. I'm high on his potential but you never know because he is so young and i think his age is a perfectly good reason not to rank him to highly.

by kennythered on Jan 1, 2008 3:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe John favors performance more than projection
which is why Villalona wouldn't get an A-, even though he has a very high limit (which is usually the criteria BA goes by).

by eeleye on Jan 1, 2008 3:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Should be a mix of both
Potential and result should both count for something. a low ceiling guy that's ready has value and at least for the short term the value is certainly comparable or even more than a high ceiling guy with no result.

by RollingWave on Jan 3, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank You, John
I couldn't agree more on what you've said.

Giants fans need to be reminded how BA raised the hype to unrealistic levels on Jesse Foppert with Angel.

Great potential, and the highest ceiling of probably any Giants hitting prospect since McCovey, but he's got a long ways to go before he's close to that kind of player.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 1, 2008 5:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Foppert
I don't agree that Foppert was raised to overhype.

His career H/9 was under 9.0 at the time of his promotion.  His BB/9 was slightly on the high side of 3.0, but it was better than what Cain did coming up.  Together, his WHIP was very good.

More importantly, his K/9 was in the 11.0 range, making his K/BB ratio over 3.0, which is a great ratio, one usually wants a pitcher to have a ratio over 2.0 and the best pitchers are above 2.4.  So BA had good reason to sing his praises.

They were not alone in this.  Baseball Prospectus was also high on him based on his stats entering the 2003 season:  "But he's got terrific mechanics, throws in the low 90s, and mixes four above-average pitches well...  He's a front-line major league starter waiting to happen."

John Sickels also thought highly of him:  http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/downonthefarm/1542561.html.  "Aside from the higher-than-ideal walk rate, his statistics are impeccable." "Given his size, strength, and mechanics, he has a good chance to be a durable pitcher if he isn't abused over the next couple of years." "... even with his current skill base he can be successful in the major leagues. Foppert remains one of the most intriguing young pitchers in baseball, and will have a good career if he remains healthy."

Then he went out and did well initially in the majors.  After 10 starts (12 games), he had thrown a total of 60.1 IP, giving up 49 H and 39 BB, with 54 strikeouts, 4.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  He had just thrown a one-hitter in 7.1 IP, 5 BB, 10 K and two starts before, thrown a 3-hitter, 7.0 IP, 2 BB, 8 K.

Looking at just the 10 starts:  57.1 IP, 46 H and 37 BB, 51 K, 4.08 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .220/.336/.359/.695 batting line.

#2 starters in the majors have an ERA around 4.00.  So Foppert was living the hype for the most part, the only horrible part was his walks.

Then things fell apart after that, then his season ending "injury" which turns out to be a season long problem that he hid since spring training.

Based on what he did initially - while his arm was hurting nonetheless - in his brief time in the majors, he showed that the hype was not unwarranted, and in any case, he had outstanding stats in the minors before coming up to the majors, earning his hyped status.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 2, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't blame John for getting those e-mails
Giants fans can go crazy at times when hitting lacks talent

And no-I wasn't one who sent him e-mails....

by Sabean2009 on Jan 1, 2008 5:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

17 Year Olds
You have to remember this kid is just 17.   That's about the age most high-school kids are when they get drafted.  If you look at how players develop from then over the next 3 years when they are draft eligible again, assuming they go to school the changes are dramatic.   If MLB teams could draft all high-school eligible kids then have a redraft 3 years later some players would go in the same rounds but most would not based on injuries and development.  As far as I'm concerned until a player makes good at AA or higher it's no sense even thinking about him unless he gets promoted to the majors.  So I'll see you in AA Angel

by MFBabyFeets1 on Jan 1, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Age
My point exactly up above.  If he were a draft eligible player, his draft year would be in 2008, when he turns 18 and would be entering college.

And yes, development and injury can change things in a hurry.  BA had Evan Longoria in the #10 spot in the draft (Giants pick) but then he had an outstanding season and moved up to a Top 5 spot.  I think Brackman was slotted for a Top 10 spot but his injury then mysterious coverup dropped him late in the first round.

But still, to ignore a player - "no sense even thinking about him" - until he reaches AA or above seems to swing the pendulum to far to the other side.  So I have to assume you ignored Justin Upton until he made AA then, MFBaby?  Same with Delmon Young?

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 2, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Engel Beltre
What makes Villalona so much better than Engel Beltre?

by sully10x on Jan 1, 2008 10:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Villalona vs Beltre
Beltre also played in the game I saw. For a guy who is supposed to have tools out the wazzou, it wasn't really evident. At least with Villalona, he showed the power, big frame, and arm strength. People like to point out that Beltre is the rough equivalent of a high school junior in age. Problem is, he looks it on the field. He's small, showed good, not great speed, an average to slightly above average arm, and no real pop in his bat.

by rwperu34 on Jan 2, 2008 12:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Beltre vs. Villalona
Beltre is definitely smaller and less physically developed, so I can see why the power wouldn't be noticable. From what I hear, however,his bat speed is terrific. I could see the diminutive stature holding him back, but his potential is still quite high. Give him time to learn plate discipline and fill out his frame, he'll be up there in the rankings. But there's no doubt Villalona is the superior prospect.

by Rangers Farmhand on Jan 2, 2008 9:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Finally prompted to sign up and post
I am at a loss why people feel the need to be rude to John, but I certainly understand there are many people out there with poor social skills.  What's interesting to me is that John is REALLY putting his neck out there going as deep as he does into each teams minor league system.  I mean, does anyone really expect to agree with everything he's saying considering the sheer amounts he's dealing with?  I've got to say, I find John's work to be some of the best in the business when it comes to rating minor league players, and writing him hateful stuff is such poor form.  Good disagreements lead to enlightenment, whereas attacking 'your opponent' leads to mystification and destroys understanding.  

It troubles me to see John so bothered by the comments he's getting, and I just want to offer my  sincere appreciation for the work that he does.  Many of us appreciate it, and we tend to be the silent majority.  I know that's unfortunate for your psyche, but know that we all love ya!  Don't get down lil buddy!

by bloodface on Jan 2, 2008 3:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately
Personally I have a tremendous amount of respect for John and look forward to his prospect book yearly.

But unfortunately there are a lot of fools out there.  In a lot of cases, I suspect it is merely false bravado.

John's work is so good that he shouldn't really care what ANYONE else says (except Jeri, of course :).

by sharksrog on Jan 2, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why?
Why would any Giants fan care where this Villalona is ranked when he won't be in the majors until like 2012-13. The major league team is the pits, the minor leagues are in shambles, and the Rockies, Dbacks, and Padres are light years ahead of them? Some Giants fans may see light at the end of the tunnel, but it's just the light of an oncoming train.

by HumboltThunderbolt on Jan 2, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well...
He has been compared to that of Miguel Cabrera, who reached the majors 2 months after he turned 20.  Of course Cabrera was born april 18th, Villalona is born august 13th. He was born in 1990, so he will turn 18 at the end of the 2008 minor league season.  

So if this kid is as special as a Miguel Cabrera with the bat, he could possibly reach the majors in 2010 and play his first full season in 2011.  

There is the very very slim chance if he dominates in A ball and gets promoted as some guys, like Fernando Martinez and Jose Tabata, have been able to do that he could get his first taste of MLB action in sept. of 2009.  

Just for comparison sake,

Miguel Cabrera in his age 17 season (remember hes born 4 months earlier then Villalona), played in 57 games in rookie ball and then a handful in Low A. In his 57 games in rookie ball at age 17 he batted .260/.331/.352.

Villalona in his age 17 season (although he turned 17 in the last week of the season) played in 52 games batted .285/.344/.450 also was promoted to Low A for 5 games.

Cabrera had a BB/K ratio of 23/46 in Rookie ball or .5, villalona had a 15/42 or .36.  

Now the 2 kids didnt play in the same leagues, Cabrera was in the GCL and Villalona in the AZL.  While Villalonas raw stats are obviously much better OPS of .794 compared to .683.  Both players  did produce better then league avg in OPS.  Cabrera was .010 better then league avg and Villalona was .045 better then league avg.

I think what John is trying to say is... this kid has talent, but he is FAR FAR away from proving himself yet.  I think a strong showing with a promotion in Low A next year will do a lot to backup the hype.  But he could easily struggle and fall off the radar, because 16-17 year old kids are very far from what they will be as a completed player/person.

I think hes just cautioning us from ASSUMING this kid will become Miguel Cabrera or anything even resembling miguel cabrera.  

I have to agree with that, but at this point hes a very exciting prospect with a HUGE ceiling and did nothing in rookie ball to hurt the hype.  Next year will be a very interesting year for him!

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 2, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two Great Signings
The Giants made two great signings in 2006 -- Tim Lincecum and Angel Villalona.  Those were the first signings they made of draftees or undrafted free agents that exceeded $2 million each.

I think both have a shot at becoming Hall of Fame players.  With Tim, there were questions about his size and the effect of his motion on his arm.  With Angel, he was only 16 when signed, so clearly several questions arose.

In Tim's case, I believe the questions were greatly overblown.  In Angel's case, only time will tell.

But add those two to the Giants' having signed each of their six picks in the top 51 overall in the 2007 draft and suddenly the Giants -- dead for the second half of this decade -- have hope for the next decade.

No one knows how well things will play out for them, but particularly with their holding the #5 overall pick in 2008 and Lincecum already having performed effectively -- and at times spectacularly -- in the big leagues, at least there is hope for an organization that allowed itself to implode by having a very poor farm system for the greater part of two decades.

The Giants will likely get rather high draft picks in 2009 and 2010, as well.  The World Champion Red Sox had several key players from their last five drafts.  By about 2011 or a couple of years later, the Giants could actually be pretty good again.

And much younger than the last time they were good.

by sharksrog on Jan 2, 2008 7:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

My 2 Cents
Sorry to be late to the party.  I was out of town for the holiday.

I appreciate John's comments on Angel V.  I pretty much agree with everything he said.

As for grades, I think comparing grades between prospects from rookie ball to AAA is extremely difficult, and in some ways almost pointless.  How do you compare, for instance, Nate Schierholtz and Angel V gradewise.  I think you could reasonably give both of them straight B's, but the underlying reasons would be completely different.  

I guess a sticking point for me would be ranking Triunfel ahead of Angel V.  At this point in both player's careers, it's all about ceiling and to me i'ts not close due to Angel V's power advantage.  I feel better that John says he ranks Angel V higher than Triunfel, but giving both B+ bothers me just a bit.  I would not give Angel V an A-, but I would bump Triunfel down to a straight B.

Speaking of grades, is it just me or does John seem to give a lot of B+'s?  I didn't take time to count them up, but it seems like he's been giving a lot more B+'s than B-'s.  It's a small point, and a personaly preference, but I would personally give more straight letters and reserve the +/-'s for relatively uncommon borderline cases.

As for ETA in the majors, I personally can wait.  I am not in favor of pushing these kids like some teams have.  I think you can win the ranking battle, but lose the war when you put 17 yo kids in high A and AA against guys who are 5-7 years or more older.  I may not be healthy from a physical standpoint, and I pretty sure it's not from a human behavior standpoint.   I would not be disappointed to see Angel back in rookie ball again.  He would still be young for the league, and it may give him a chance to work on some skills in extended ST without the pressure to perform.  I don't think the Giants will do that with him though.  I'm not sure what their plans are but I think it will be either low A or SS.  I personally would favor the slower approach of SS after more time in extended ST.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 2, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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