Community Prospect #34

by wily mo on Dec 18, 2007 10:24 PM EST Comment 32 comments

this ralph nader documentary is pretty interesting.

LIST

1. Jay Bruce (OF, CIN)
2. Evan Longoria (3B, TB)
3. Colby Rasmus (OF, STL)
4. Clay Buchholz (RHP, BOS)
5. Clayton Kershaw (LHP, LAD)
6. Joba Chamberlain (RHP, NYY)
7. Cameron Maybin (OF, FLA)
8. Homer Bailey (RHP, CIN)
9. David Price (LHP, TB)
10. Andy LaRoche (3B, LAD)
11. Jacob McGee (LHP, TB)
12. Johnny Cueto (RHP, CIN)
13. Travis Snider (OF, TOR)
14. Brandon Wood (3B/SS, LAA)
15. Matt Wieters (C, BAL)
16. Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, BOS)
17. (T) Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
17. (T) Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT)
19. Wade Davis (RHP, TB)
20. (T) Chase Headley (3B, SD)
20. (T) Reid Brignac (SS, TB)
22. Daric Barton (1B, OAK)
23. Rick Porcello (RHP, DET)
24. Franklin Morales (LHP, COL)
25. Jeff Clement (C, SEA)
26. Matt LaPorta (OF/1B, MIL)
27. Mike Moustakas (SS, KC)
28. Chris Marrero (OF, WAS)
29. Fernando Martinez (OF, NYM)
30. Matt Antonelli (2B, SD)
31. Desmond Jennings (OF, TB)
32. Carlos Gonzalez (OF, OAK)
33. Jason Heyward (OF, ATL)

MARCO
Taylor Teagarden, Jordan Schafer, Gio Gonzalez, Chin-Lung Hu

POLO
Ian Kennedy (7/32), Jose Tabata (7/32), Steven Pearce (3/29), Wladimir Balentien (3/25)

MARCO
Jarrod Parker

POLO
Taylor Teagarden (8/33), Jordan Schafer (7/33), Carlos Triunfel (6/32), Angel Villalona (5/32), Gio Gonzalez (5/33), Geovany Soto (4/28), Tim Alderson (4/28), Lars Anderson (4/30), Beau Mills (4/31), Chin-Lung Hu (4/33), Luke Hochevar (3/31), Nick Adenhart (2/25), Justin Masterson (1/26), Carlos Carrasco (0/25)

MARCO
Josh Vitters, Chris Davis, Manny Parra, Michael Burgess, Elvis Andrus, Dexter Fowler, Radhames Liz, Chris Tillman, Deolis Guerra, Chris Volstad, Chris Carter II

Poll

POLO

Steven Pearce 1B/LF PIT

22 votes

Jose Tabata OF NYY

16 votes

Ian Kennedy RHP NYY

24 votes

Other (marco)

15 votes

Fautino de los Santos RHP CWS

73 votes

Kosuke Fukudome RF CHC

39 votes

Austin Jackson CF NYY

18 votes

Jed Lowrie SS BOS

38 votes

Jarrod Parker RHP ARI

4 votes

Wladimir Balentien RF SEA

24 votes

273 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

other

gio.

by jpahk on Dec 18, 2007 10:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

im going with gio here as well

by daveh33 on Dec 18, 2007 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bah

completely forgot about him for a second... Im changing my Other to Triunfel!!! get that kid on here.

by daveh33 on Dec 18, 2007 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other

just kidding :)

by siddfynch on Dec 18, 2007 10:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

like Gio too

more than Fautino, as GG is highly likely to hit his upside (#2 SP), not sure on Fautino.

or I think I'm going w/ Balentien. The good: his slugging (over 500) & OBP both went up from AA to AAA, and his K rate dropped dramatically, all good signs that he's for real. Decent speed 15 of 19 on SBs. The bad: his BB rate dropped some as did his XBH. Is Tacoma a tougher park than San Antonio? He looks like a pure pull hitter and I don't know about his D - any reports? KG had him as bad 2-strike hitter and plays "out of control" w/ too many K's. But the numbers suggest he is reigning that in. Also noted that he hit .365 w/ 5 HRs from the 9th inning on - nice.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 18, 2007 10:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

gio vs fautino

how is this one even close? gio is the same age, same org, left-handed, longer track record, better stats, higher level. if this isn't shiny new toy, i don't know what is.

by jpahk on Dec 18, 2007 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gio vs Fautino

Gio barely scrapes 90, Fautino sits in the mid 90's and touches 97. Fautino's best breaking pitch is better than Gio's best breaking pitch. There's a lot of questions about whether Gio's stuff would play in the majors. He relies more on guile and control than great stuff. Fautino has great stuff and control of it. All that said, it's still 1A and 1B for me, but I do have Fautino slightly ahead.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 18, 2007 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

stuff

okay, fautino has the better fastball. but it's much closer than you make it sound. where is this "barely scraping 90" coming from? john wrote in his gio-elbert smackdown last year that "He has a consistent fastball at 89-92 MPH, hitting 93-94 at times." that sounds more like what i'm used to hearing about gio. when you factor in the leftiness, i think they're pretty close on fastball-ness.

as for their breaking pitches, i'm not sure what to say... gio has a great, great curveball, and his change is more advanced than fautino's.

i mean, this is a guy (gio) who led the minor leagues in K's. and he's not exactly a soft-tosser beating up on inferior competition--he did it at age 21 in AA. he spent most of the season two levels higher than fautino at the same age (technically, five months older, but whatever). i think there's a huge edge to gio in performance/track record, and a tiny tiny edge to fautino in "stuff."

by jpahk on Dec 18, 2007 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i like this argument...

...Gio is one of the few current minor leaguers Ive seen play. I think it should be noted that he is just a natural competitor and has got some fiery passion in him... I loved watching him play, and his hook is fantastic.

by daveh33 on Dec 18, 2007 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can say...

that the two sources I've seen puts Gio's velocity close to 90, or barely over. BP and BA both mention ranges from 89-91 and 86-92, and that's a red flag for me when projecting success for Gio, this is in the same range that Clippard throws.

Santos' fastball is in the range of 91-95, touching 98, from BP and 93-95 touching 97 from BA. That's a huge difference to me. And when looking at a pitcher, I start with velocity.

I also don't care about age differences when it comes to pitchers (within reason of course).

Anyway, it's a risk-reward thing. You like Gio in part because he has a longer track record and has done it at a higher level. I like what I consider to be Santos higher ceiling.

by beastball on Dec 18, 2007 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

velocity

BP and BA both mention ranges from 89-91 and 86-92, and that's a red flag for me when projecting success for Gio, this is in the same range that Clippard throws.

huuuuge difference here: gio is a lefty. 89-92 is just fine for a lefty if his off-speed stuff is good enough (and judging by the K rate, it is).

by jpahk on Dec 18, 2007 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose...

these publications don't describe his fastball as anything but average, and I assume they're factoring in the fact he's a lefty.

Maybe you're right, I tend to be a bit more strict when evaluating pitching prospects, and as I said, I start with velocity, and in my opinion, Santos has impressive velocity and Gio doesn't, and to this point, both BA and BP seem to agree with that assessment.

I'll admit that my opinion of Gio swings back and forth, but generally, I can't get over what appears to be, and what is described by several publications as average velocity. By the sounds of it, he lives on his impressive breaking pitch, which just doesn't inspire confidence to me.

I am very curious to see BA's white sox top 10 however.

by beastball on Dec 18, 2007 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

santogio

santos hits 97 with a pimp-slap slider and good command. if you can do that, you can dominate. that's basically what joba does - not saying santos is equal to joba, but he's pitching in the style of. gio has more of a rich hill profile. that's a good pitcher, but it's walking a finer line.

by wily mo on Dec 18, 2007 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sure

i buy all this, except i don't really believe in de los santos yet. i agree that gio looks more like a rich hill or a wandy rodriguez. (and that's not an insult--those guys are pretty good.) i just think de los santos's 25th-percentile projection is "not a major league pitcher" and i'm going to ding him for that. all but 25 or so of his innings pitched have come in low A. maybe his slider isn't so pimp-slap against advanced hitters.

by jpahk on Dec 19, 2007 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

talk to the hand

(smack)

by wily mo on Dec 19, 2007 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sources?

Baseball America says Gonzalez "...has a fundamentally sound delivery that he repeats well, creating effortless 92-95 mph velocity with his fastball."

This was from their 2007 prospect handbook.

by siddfynch on Dec 19, 2007 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

BP's 2008 list says 89-91; BA's southern league top 20 says 86-92 (stipulating that he intentionally subtracts from it at times). you're right that BA 2007 says what you say it says. maybe that's why he had such a bad year before. threw too hard.

by wily mo on Dec 19, 2007 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he's really athletic...

... I wouldnt be surprised if he learns to keep it in the 90s as he physically matures and strengthens his arm a bit more.

by daveh33 on Dec 19, 2007 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hm.

gio is the same age, same org, left-handed, longer track record, better stats, higher level. if this isn't shiny new toy, i don't know what is.

you didn't mention stuff there.

by wily mo on Dec 18, 2007 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're right

i had two reasons for that.

it didn't really support what i was trying to say.
it would have taken much longer to compare the two. but now, having been called out on it by two people, i think it's still reasonably clear-cut to take gio.

by jpahk on Dec 18, 2007 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Went Santos here...

standard risk v reward thing, Santos had some of the best numbers in all of A ball last year, and has legit stuff. Not that it really matters, but so far the only real head to head comparison we have is from BP which had Santos over Gio.

Gio's numbers are nice, but his velocity seems weak. Saying his fastball is from 86-92 is a worrisome range, imo.

by beastball on Dec 18, 2007 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BP

KG putting fautino over gio was bizarre then and it's still bizarre now. here's what we all said about it at the time:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/11/7/145247/186

the idea of putting fautino ahead seems to be gaining traction among this community. nevertheless, i shall continue to rail against it.

by jpahk on Dec 18, 2007 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

don't you love it that things you say here stay on record?

jpahk, november 7:

i guess he [goldstein] can do whatever he wants. i don't have a problem with ranking fautino ahead of gio, but i do think that fautino falls well short of being a 5-star prospect. they're both solid 4-star guys in my opinion.

now i'm saying that i do have a problem with it. maybe i should just claim that i was misquoted? or something equally weasely like i don't have a problem with KG ranking them however he wants, but in my opinion, gio is superior.

by jpahk on Dec 18, 2007 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think wily mo summed it up...

pretty well in the original thread. Santos has superior velocity, and Gio doesn't, and that caps Gio's ceiling, imo.

by beastball on Dec 18, 2007 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other

Schafer.

by rhd on Dec 18, 2007 10:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ditto

by Havok1517 on Dec 19, 2007 1:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+2

by SLK on Dec 19, 2007 8:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ian Kennedy

I'll go to the opposite end of the spectrum from Heyward here. Wasn't Kennedy considered one of the top college pitching prospects in a great college pitching class coming into his junior season? I professional record so far is outstanding. Are we still holding his relatively weak junior season against him? Doesn't he's have a 94+ fastball plus secondary pitches and advanced command? What's not to love here?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 18, 2007 11:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs