My Astro top 20

by Shamus on Nov 27, 2007 11:28 PM EST

JR Towles
Troy Patton
Felipe Paulino
Mike Costanzo
Juan Gutierrez
Paul Estrada
Bud Norris
Mitch Einertson
Brad James
Max Sapp
Josh Flores
Sam Gervacio
Mark McLemore
Chance Douglass
Eli Iorg
Dennis Sarfate
Koby Clemens
Jordan Parraz
Jonny Ash
Tommy Manzella

That was tough!
I forgot about Reineke. Take out McLemore and put him in.
I am not 100% happy with the list from 13 on, Parraz should be a little higher, but most from there are interchangable.

Also, if you want any explanations or other info I will answer. I didn't want to waste time since so few people care, but if you do I will.

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Comments

Good Job

On finding 20 prospects worth writing down

by MHD on Nov 27, 2007 11:14 PM EST 0 recs

Imagine John's job

He has to find 33 - 36....

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 27, 2007 11:27 PM EST up 0 recs

Worth?

I wanted to cry after 12 or 13

Make the world a better place. Punch Tim Purpura in the face.

by Shamus on Nov 27, 2007 11:37 PM EST up 0 recs

lol

by nyy601 on Nov 28, 2007 1:53 AM EST up 0 recs

I'm sure McLemore

would be thrilled to be #13, but if I'm right, he spent some pretty decent pre-Sept service time with H-town did he not?

Also, I like Sarfate as a sleeper in the pen. I think dude can bring it pretty good.

Curtis Granderson fan

by jrose643 on Nov 27, 2007 11:27 PM EST 0 recs

That is true

Did not check. You can replace him with anyone else. It is ugly down there.

Make the world a better place. Punch Tim Purpura in the face.

by Shamus on Nov 27, 2007 11:36 PM EST up 0 recs

I'd have Bourn on this list. I know he doesn't do much more than run, but that is worth something in itself. The guy had 18 steals in something like 45 times on base last year in under 150 ABs. You have to think he has a very good shot at 35-40SB, with decent runs scored and a 270-280 avg; and he's major league ready.

by killa on Nov 27, 2007 11:46 PM EST 0 recs

So would I

But he has like 1.1 years of ML experience. BA does that kind of stuff.

Make the world a better place. Punch Tim Purpura in the face.

by Shamus on Nov 27, 2007 11:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Even as a Cub fan

I have to extend my condolences. That list is brutal.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Nov 28, 2007 12:02 AM EST 0 recs

Oh my...

...my eyes are bleeding from overexposure to that black hole.

Shout out for Josh Flores though...he is underrated (top 5 in that system IMO).

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Nov 28, 2007 12:42 AM EST 0 recs

FLores had a pretty good AFL

So I thought he would be rated higher as well

by Duman on Nov 28, 2007 9:16 AM EST up 0 recs

Sergio Perez

what has happened to him? seemed like fast riser after last year..his 2007 wasnt great..but not terrible? I didnt see him on the BA top 10..thought maybe he was on the edge.

by NYSOX on Nov 28, 2007 2:42 AM EST 0 recs

Probably will be in Johns book

He may be another straight C prospect. I can't think much of him because he didn't strike anyone out in advanced A.

Make the world a better place. Punch Tim Purpura in the face.

by Shamus on Nov 28, 2007 12:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Injuries

are in issue with him as well.

by Duman on Nov 28, 2007 12:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Strikeouts

Brad James didn't strike out anyone in high-A and, in fact, his rates were lower than that of Perez. Entering the season, James had 200+ IP in minor league ball. Perez had 16.

I think people over-value James and underestimate Perez.

by Michael N on Nov 29, 2007 11:07 PM EST up 0 recs

re: Perez

He was inconsistent this season, but that was largely due to his development of a changeup. He didn't have to worry about throwing one in college, he could just get guys out with his mid-90's heat and good slider. He's having to throw one now and it wasn't always working for him. I think it would be a mistake to write him off this soon.

by astrosfan76 on Nov 28, 2007 4:28 PM EST up 0 recs

Iorg is lower

than Parraz in my mind. Parraz has had two solid seasons while Iorg is going on tools and name. Iorg is also much older. I will not be sold on him until I see him play against people his own age for a full season.

by Duman on Nov 28, 2007 9:19 AM EST 0 recs

Shamus

Nice write up. Curious what you think of Sapp and what he'll do this year.

Are you still interested in the league? You disappeared last week.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Nov 28, 2007 10:45 AM EST 0 recs

sent you an e-mail

He has been pushed and not totally killed. I like that he has been able to take walks. I hate that his "tremendous" power hasn't shown up. He was over drafted because they saw something in him and he hasn't totally flopped yet.

I don't know where he will start next year. He may repeat and he may not because there is not a catcher ahead of him. All I hear is that he has power. So maybe he hits some HRs next year.

Make the world a better place. Punch Tim Purpura in the face.

by Shamus on Nov 28, 2007 12:39 PM EST up 0 recs

my list

I probably would have gone with something like this:

Troy Patton
JR Towles (interchangeable with Patton)
Felipe Paulino
Michael Bourn
Josh Flores
Brad James
Mike Costanzo
Mitch Einertson
Samuel Gervacio
Bud Norris
Sergio Perez
Max Sapp
Tommy Manzella
Eli Iorg
Jordan Parraz
Collin DeLome
Matt Cusick
Polin Trinidad
Paul Estrada
Lou Santangelo

It gets kind of interchangeable towards the end, but I really like DeLome and Cusick from this year's draft class. I also think Norris and Perez could both break out next season. Parraz has held up better recently and is younger (though it took him a while to break out of short-season ball), but Iorg has a higher ceiling if he can put it together.

by astrosfan76 on Nov 28, 2007 5:37 PM EST 0 recs

everyone else you mention will be top 30 as well

Only real differences are Flores, Douglass, Gutierrez and Perez. I omitted Bourn because of service time. Why no Gutierrez? I think he is at the same level abouts as Paulino. He wasn't that bad.

I didn't include guys that signed this year. None were rated that high in the draft and it is hard to give a guy that much credit for a small sample.

You must have a better scouting report on Perez than me, as well as Flores. I think I have a better one on Estrada. That is probably the difference. Better meaning a positive one.

Make the world a better place. Punch Tim Purpura in the face.

by Shamus on Nov 28, 2007 5:59 PM EST up 0 recs

differences

I used Bourn because he hasn't expired his rookie eligibility. It's close, but hey, guys with 10 years of service in Japan are counted as prospects when they come over.

Gutierrez, I probably should have put in the 8-10 range. I'm just not as high on him. He had a couple of good months at AAA, but some bad ones, also. Throw in his age (24), and I don't see him as a 4 or 5. Just my opinion, though.

On Perez, I read an article not long ago (shortly after the season, may have been a McTaggart article) about his struggles getting used to throwing a changeup, which led to inconsistency in his starts. As he gets used to throwing one, he'll only improve. But, a 4.00 ERA at high-A for a first full season isn't terrible.

Flores, I just like his tool set. He needs to continue to improve his plate discipline, though he has made strides in that department. He was great at Salem, struggled at Corpus, but bounced back in the AFL. He was only 21 during the season, so he's still got plenty of time to get better.

by astrosfan76 on Nov 28, 2007 6:57 PM EST 0 recs