Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Nov 13, 2007 4:08 PM EST in News

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade B+
Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade B
Ben Revere, OF, Grade B
Eduardo Morlan, RHP, Grade B
Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade B
Trevor Plouffe, SS, Grade B-
Brian Duensing, LHP, Grade B-
Oswaldo Sosa, RHP, Grade B-
Jose Mijares, LHP, Grade C+
Mike McCardell, RHP, Grade C+
Chris Parmelee, OF, Grade C+ (disappointing in '07 but young)
Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade C+
Ryan Mullins, LHP, Grade C+
Jay Rainville, RHP, Grade C+
Deibinson Romero, 3B, Grade C+
Alex Burnett, RHP, Grade C+
David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+
Nick Blackburn, RHP, Grade C+
Erik Lis, OF-1B, Grade C+
Zach Ward, RHP, Grade C

There are 19 more players in the book. Note that the Grade C+ guys are all interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize, so don't get bent out of shape about their exact position on the list. I could make a case to dump Mijares out of the Top Ten, for example, and replace him with almost any of the other C+ guys.

You can pre-order the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book right now!.

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Comments

Bromberg

Let me make a quick case for at least a B- for him:

Appy pitcher of the year.

ERA: 2.78. 81 ks in 58 innings.

6'5", 230 lb.

19 years old.

Was ranked #3 prospect in Appy league by BA.

I think this combo inches him up out of the C+ masses.

Thanks for the list.

by gogotabata on Nov 13, 2007 4:30 PM EST reply actions

Development

The Twins seem to have problems developing position prospects, or is it poor drafting?

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 13, 2007 4:47 PM EST reply actions

you mean like

Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, and Kubel?? Their pitching staff includes Santana (Astros), Liriano, Bonser, and Nathan (Giants), Silva (Phillies), Guerrer (White Sox), and Reyes (Dodgers). If anything, the Twins are adept at developing hitters and stealing pitchers from other teams.

Their farm system is full of pitcher friendly parks, so I wouldn't write off all of their hitters yet. Admittedly, they've loaded up on pitchers the last few years, but I still think that Parmelee and Revere look quite promising, and Lis and Ploufe could still contribute to a major league team.

by vaclipper on Nov 13, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

+ A LOT

That is an excellent point!! Thank you for pointing that out! Sure, the Twins have a lot of young ugys that they drafted that we believe will be very good, but I guess we shall see. Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel and Hunter were all drafted by the Twins.

by SethSpeaks on Nov 13, 2007 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

Hitters

Mauer was a #1 overall pick, right? And, was pretty much developed when they drafted him?

Cuddyer and Morneau are hardly recent vintage.

Has Kubel lived up to what you hoped so far? (Yes, the injury could be a factor here).

Moses, Plouffe, Parmelee, Spann? The track record for the last several years isn't too good.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 14, 2007 12:54 AM EST up reply actions

sounds like sour grapes over the AJ trade??? :)

How can you argue that Mauer was major league ready and the Twins did not develop him? A lot of baseball people panned the draft pick as a signability issue saying that Prior should have gone first. Other HS hitters taken 1st overall include, Matt Bush (also viewed as a value signing), Shawn Abner, Josh Hamilton, and Adrian Gonzalez.

We do not know how Moses has been impacted by injuries. Plouffe is still on track toward the majors and Parmelee's numbers (other than batting average) hold up against Travis Snider in the same league. Spann is the type of player a lot of teams make mistakes on.

Anyway, I don't see anything wrong with how the Twins develop hitters (although, I hate the way Gardenhire handles them once they get to the majors). Mauer has been a ROY and Morneau has been MVP. You cannot find any homegrown Twins pitcher who has had even remotely similar success. Their best homegrown pitching talent of recent vintage to have major league success includes a number 4 starter (Baker) and two decent set up guys (Neshek and Crain). Unless you want to go back to Frank Viola, I cannot think of a star pitcher this team has developed recently.

by vaclipper on Nov 14, 2007 6:10 AM EST up reply actions

AJ Trade?

Whatthehell does the AJ trade have to do with this discussion?

Yes, I'm a Giants fan, but I really like the Twins a lot tot. My wife is from Sioux Falls,, SD and is a Twins fan. I'm just a bit concerned about their future as it doesn't look to me like they pending talent in the minors is up to Twins standards in the past. Glad to hear I might be wrong.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 14, 2007 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

Re:

Sure Mauer was the #1 overall pick. But I don't see people discounting the Devilrays and claim they did not develop the guys they drafted top 5 overall like Delmon, Upton, Longoria, etc..

by McLovin on Nov 14, 2007 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

Hmm

I wouldn't say a high school player is developed when they get him, no matter how good he is. And drafting Mauer was one of the most controversial things the Twins have done in the last decade, considering you had guys like Prior and Teixeira out there.

Kubel turned a corner last year, when he finally got regular at bats. He was arguably the Twins best hitter in the second half. Look for a breakout year from him in 2008.

I wouldn't put Plouffe and Parmalee in the same class as Moses and Span. The later two were total busts, but Plouffe will make an impact on the major league team in the next two years and the jury is out on Parmalee (who was very highly regarded by everyone when he was drafted).

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 14, 2007 10:40 AM EST up reply actions

Have to agree

The Twins have had a quite a few good hitting prospects that came up to the bigs and either stalled or got jerked around.

Look at Cuddyer. Took him several years to become a decent regular after being jerked from position to position.

Morneau had trouble adjusting, in part from the way the Twins coaches had him trying to adjust his approach. David Ortiz says the same thinga about his time in Minn.

And you can go back to guys like Ortiz and Todd Walker.

It certainly seems that there is some disconnect in that organization when it comes to what makes a good hitter.

by Montreal97 on Nov 14, 2007 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Robertson

Have him in my keeper league, thought he was a B, and would be in the top 5.......WOW Ahead of Swarzak and Manship. Very pleasant surprise.

by GregJP on Nov 13, 2007 5:00 PM EST reply actions

Just a quick question

Is there any order to how you will be doing the top 20's?

by parrot11 on Nov 13, 2007 5:05 PM EST reply actions

order

I do them as I write the comments for the book. There is no particular pattern. Next up is the Braves.

by John Sickels on Nov 13, 2007 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

B+?!?!?

...I know that you're the expert, but isn't that a bit high for Robertson? Wouldn't that make him like a top 50 prospect?

(Not that it's a big deal, it's just that he indistinguishable IMO from the straight Bs just below him)

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Nov 13, 2007 5:18 PM EST reply actions

robertson

Well, I considered B but went with B+. See him at the back end of the top 50. Maybe I'm too optimisic? the numbers are hard to beat.

by John Sickels on Nov 13, 2007 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Questions

What is holding down Robertson? Is it his delivery?

What would Swarzak have to do to improve his rating?

Should/will the Twins try to make over Revere's swing?

Where would Casilla rank if eligible? Should the Twins be concerned about their heir apparent at 2B?

Does Matt Tolbert look like a useful role player (assuming their 2B can suffice at SS)?

Did the Twins hold down their spending on draft choices because of spending money on Ortiz and Ponson?

by lonestar on Nov 13, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions

Robertson's motion is a concern

from looking at the Youtube videos though, he motion is a lot like Andy Pettett.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 13, 2007 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

Matt Moses

He's not even on your list. I'd be very appreciative if you could quickly mention what you think will become of him?

by GuyinNY on Nov 13, 2007 5:21 PM EST reply actions

moses

At this point, not much. he hasn't been the same since the back injury.

by John Sickels on Nov 13, 2007 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

Plouffe

Still up there grade wise. Doers anyone see him finally breaking out in a big way?. He got off to a fast start last year,but seemed to level off.

by Rajah358 on Nov 13, 2007 5:35 PM EST reply actions

Glen Perkins

Has he lost his rookie status? I don't believe he has reached the 50 IP level, but has he exceeded 45 days on the roster?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 13, 2007 5:56 PM EST reply actions

Parmalee?

Fell like a rock. Were we too optimistic after last year.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Nov 13, 2007 5:57 PM EST reply actions

Re: Parmalee?

he had a rough season, but he still has lots of time to improve, I thought he would stay in the B or B- range still. He should have a bounce back season after making adjustments in his first offseason.

J-Mac

by jdmcrae on Nov 13, 2007 9:34 PM EST up reply actions

No

I don't think Parmelee had a bad year at all, and I don't see any reason why he's not a solid B, marginal B+ prospect. If you look at his peripherals BB%, K%, HR/AB, XBH/H, etc, he holds up very nicely compared to Travis Snider in the same league. The major difference between Snider and Parmelee statistically is their hit rate, which can be driven by luck. Snider had a .420 BABIP while Parmelee's was .312. Add in the fact that the midwest league is a brutal league for power, and I cannot see why Parmelee should be downgraded so much. His strike out rate is very troubling, but I don't think his year was bad when you take his age and league into context. If he's a C+, then I would put Snider as a B.

by vaclipper on Nov 13, 2007 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Robertson

Wow, I just looked up his stats. Pretty terrific. What does he throw? Any injury history? Looks like he's taken the mound pretty steadily as a pro, and looks big and projectable.

Nice to see a young lefty with what looks like great command/control.

Sidd Fynch: Flame war free since November 2007

by siddfynch on Nov 13, 2007 6:07 PM EST reply actions

Here is baseball america's

MWL top 20 scouting report on him

"As many teenage pitchers do, Robertson faced some adjustments in his first full year as a pro. Even after he spent the first two months in extended spring training, the grind of the longer season sapped some of the juice out of his fastball, which dropped from 90-94 mph as an amateur to 86-90 this year.

The loss of velocity didn't faze Robertson, who had 143 strikeouts in 120 innings, including two stellar playoff starts. He piled up whiffs with a slider that he could get hitters to miss in the strike zone of chase off the plate. His big 6-foot-5 body gives him projection and good downward plane that creates a lot of groundballs.

Robertson has an unorthodox, stiff delivery that works for him now but could lead to problems down the road. It's deceptive and throws hitters' timing off, though it also puts a lot of stress on his shoulder."

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Nov 13, 2007 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

Joe Benson should still be a C+ and in the top 20 somewhere.

by BaseballBrain on Nov 14, 2007 2:53 PM EST reply actions

benson

I don't believe much in Benson at this point. He's toolsy but no refinement.

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2007 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

Yohan Pino

No love????

Member: Coalition For The Advancement Of Greek Baseball Players

by fischbowl on Nov 14, 2007 5:48 PM EST reply actions

i thought the same thing

whats up with Pino

by Terry Ryan Jr on Nov 14, 2007 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

Pino, Pino, Pino...

I'm sure he's in the book, but I can see him missing the top 20.

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Nov 16, 2007 12:31 AM EST up reply actions

pino

Pino is in the book.

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2007 10:37 AM EST reply actions

Swing and a miss on Trevor

Nice to see you back on the Plouffe wagon! He was MIA on your list last year. If memory serves you also sprinkled in about 10 guys who didn't make the Top 20 and he wasn't included.

by Con on Nov 18, 2007 10:22 PM EST reply actions