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Around SBN: How A Letter From Tom Coughlin Helped One Fan's Recovery

You're the GM! New York Mets Edition

You're the GM! New York Mets Edition

So, what do you do here? Do you tear down and start over to try and change your karma? Or do you simply make a few tweaks and move on? Do you give Pelfrey and/or Humber full shots? What about the outfield? Do you retain Willie Randolph?

Discuss.

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That graphic might be the single greatest thing you've ever posted here.

Strike that. It's DEFINITELY the single greatest thing you've ever posted here.

by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2007 5:37 PM EDT reply actions  

+1
that is some funny stuff.

by jpahk on Oct 3, 2007 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

laugh my ass off
Oh sorry, that was as a fan.  As the GM, I would have to resign and launch Randolph prior to the resignation.

Pelfrey and Humber both need spots in the rotation.  Period.

Green and Glavine are gone which frees up $20MM.  LoDuca and Castillo are FA's as is Alou.  Take the cash and go get bullpen help.

This team could win 70 games next year.  I'm still laughing my ass off!  Minaya contructed a fatally flawed team.

by So Cal Bob on Oct 2, 2007 5:39 PM EDT reply actions  

step one
I think at this stage you need to lock up Julio Franco with a two-year deal, and then everything else falls into place.

by Moose Tacos on Oct 2, 2007 5:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Trade for a #1
Maine and Perez are nice #3's but they don't have an ace.  Pedro is probably a #2 at best now with his health and age.  Give up the overrated outfield prospects and maybe Reyes.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2007 5:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Sigh, Need to vent somehow
I am a Mets fan, and seeing the graphic only symbolizes what agony I've gone through the last month.  That being said, if I was the GM, this is what I would do.
  1.  NOT fire Willie - while he seemingly lost his club, I don't think he can be blamed for this in its entirety.  The club was over .500 and during the years prior to Willie, even sniffing at .500 would have been lovely to my ears.  Expectations were high and not achieved, but on the whole, Willie has won and one tragic year shouldn't doom him as manager.  
  2. Set a rotation - Pedro/Maine/O.Pe/El Duque/Pelfrey.  Humber as the 6th man in (or when perhaps) one of these guys go down.  Unless Santana is obtainable, then this should be how it is.  There is no starter worth spending a ton on.
  3. Fix the bullpen.  I'm not really sure how, but you have to do it.  First thing may be to cut ties with Mota to end any temptations.  Then I'd heavily consider it with Schoeneweis.  Find middle  relief, including heavily consider whatever internal options we have.  We really haven't been grooming guys for middle relief, but its obvious we need it.  Bring in arms, tell Sanchez not to screw up his shoulder.  One thing may be to consider Humber in a temporary relief role for the season with going back to starter later in the year.  Not sure, but we need back of the bullpen arms that won't destroy us night in night out.
  4. Resign LoDuca AND castro if possible - its a good two-headed monster as far as I'm concerned.  Only other option would be to go for pudge if released by tigers.  1 yr deal with him may be acceptable.
  5. OF - Alou/Beltran/Milledge - Let the kids play, whether it be Milledge or Gomez, just one of them has to be in RF, full time.  Alou was great when not hurt, and if you have another OF, lets say Chavez or Gomez, then him being out for extended period isn't too horrible.
  6. Believe this was a horrible happenstance and move on.  Really, the core of this team is still very very good.  I don't know what happened, but I don't like it.  But, the best way is to treat this as a motivator into next year.  Prepare like you never prepared before.  We don't need to restart, we just need to rehabilitate.

by thudean on Oct 2, 2007 5:52 PM EDT reply actions  

don't panic
  1.  DO NOT trade Reyes, as some idiotic "fans" have suggested.  Corollary to this:  Fire Rickey Henderson.
  2.  Let Glavine go back to Atlanta, and go into '08 with a rotation of Pedro, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, and Humber.  You're not going to get solid value in return for Pelf/Humber, and it's time to let them sink or swim.  El Duque's there, but use him as a safety net and spot starter/swingman/longman etc. He's not good for more than 20 starts, anyway.
  3.  Give Milledge the everyday RF spot, and exercise Alou's option at (I believe) $6.5 mil.
  4.  Do not re-sign Shawn Green (almost goes without saying) or Luis Castillo.  Physically, both are finished/near finished.  Look to find a right-handed platoon mate for Ruben Gotay and suck it up at 2B.
  5.  Consider finding a righty platoon mate at 1B--if there's one out there--as Delgado absolutely STUNK against lefties this year.  
  6.  At catcher, let Lo Duca walk and bring back Castro--I'm not the biggest fan of Pudge, but it might be worthwhile to see if he can be signed to some kind of incentive-laden deal.  DO NOT overpay for Jorge Posada.
  7.  Get some goddamn bullpen help and tell Willie to quit it with the quick hook on the younger starters.  Feliciano, Wagner, Heilman are fine at the back end, and someone needs to kick Duaner Sanchez in the ass and get him back to Shea.  Find a way to cut the Roid Boys + Jorge Sosa loose.

by jasondg on Oct 2, 2007 6:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree
with everything there... everything

by BlackOps on Oct 2, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Metsies
  1. Do whatever possible to get younger.  Plan on playing the kids even if veterans who seem slightly better are out there.  Try to make any FA signings as young as possible.
  2. Get a great bullpen coach, and designate a lot of authority to that guy.
  3. It may be over for Delgado, so be ready.  At least get a RH who might be able to step in.  Sweeney from KC could be a good gamble if healthy, and coming over to the AAAA-NL.
  4. Don't mortgage the future for 2008.  Now is the time to find out if the kids can play.

by elricsi on Oct 2, 2007 6:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Well I would trade Gomez
He looked pitiful at the plate and reminded me more of Nook Logan than Carl Crawford.  Get value for him or Milledge now.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

No your wrong again
Gomez actually lookd like a pretty good player towards the final week of the season, and nobody can deny his fielding and running abilities.  This kid brings excitement and I can't see him doing what Reyes did in September which is pop up about 2ce a game. He keeps the ball on the ground of hits a linedrive. His power will develop over time and I'm not saying he'll be anywhere as good but he looks A LOT like Hanley.

Though if it's the right trade I might trade him.

by Maine Man on Oct 2, 2007 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of Hanley
Remember when everyone just about gave up on him after 2005 at age 21.  Here is John's post about Hanley then.  http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/10/26/101553/22

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2007 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Response
Revisionist history is always fun, although done irresponsibly it is not of much value.

by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2007 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Neat
That's a great look back in time.  My comment holds up fairly well, though it's cop-out nature helps with that.  ;)

by NBarnes on Oct 5, 2007 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Age
He's 21 and tends to be, uh, slightly over-exuberant with his swing.  He had a period right before his injury in which he shortened up his swing and was hitting much better.  Wouldn't hurt him to spend a couple more months in AAA and work on keeping the swing short and compact, so he can use that speed.

Giving up on Gomez is just short-sighted, IMO.

by jasondg on Oct 2, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Suggestion
As for next year there isn't much ways in which the Mets can improve from this year besides the bullpen.. and im a mets fan..

I give Milledge the starting job in RF..

I want Cordero and Rauch from Washington, I make a package around Humber but do not trade Kevin Mulvey in the deal. Maybe a Humber,Parnell,Carp,Owens deal can get it down.

Re-sign Alou and Castillo. Keep Gomez in the majors and the Mets must give Alou at least 2 days off a week.

Castillo will basically be healing his knees all off-season and since he won't be on turf anymore I have faith then he will be in great shape come spring training. Also I have no faith in Ruben Gotay I'm not letting him get a shot at 2B.

Catcher is an interesting posistion. I would want to take a chance on a guy like Josh Bard, who hits like .324 on the road but like .225 at home. Idk what it would cost to get him but that'd be an interesting case. Also re-sign Ramon Castro give him 300 at bats and see what he can do.

by Maine Man on Oct 2, 2007 6:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Well there is no middle line with Gomez
Either he is Nook or a more powerful Crawford.  I'll give you that he looks like Ramirez in the box, but will he mature like Hanley did when he turned 22.  They both have comparible numbers in the minors for their age 21 bracket.  One good thing for him was that he only struckout once in his comeback and that was 17 AB's, granted he only got a hit or two.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2007 6:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Nook
Nook Logan's minor league stats have no comparative value here, and truthfully, I have no idea why you pull his name into this discussion, other than the fact that you're a Braves fan.

One fast guy doesn't equal another fast guy.

by jasondg on Oct 2, 2007 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nuke Nook
Gomez is somewhere between Nook and Crawford, the business about Gomez being a more powerful Crawford is probably wishcasting though- Crawford's a lot bigger and stronger.

At 18 Crawford hit .301/.342/.410 in A ball
At 19 Crawford hit 274/.323/.352 in AA
At 20 Crawford hit .297/.335/.456 in A+ (Hey its' Tampa it makes no sense)
At 20 Crawford hit .259/.290/.371 in the MLB
At 21 Crawford hit 281/.309/.362 in the MLB and his development leaped ahead the next year at age 22.
Crawford is 6'2" 215lbs

At 19 Gomez hit .275/.331/.376 in A ball
At 20 Gomez hit .281/.349/.423 in AA
At 21 Gomez hit .286/.363/.414 in the PCL and     .248/.300/.330 in the MLB

Gomez is 6'2" and 170 lbs

Nook at 6'2" 180 lbs is a closer physical match for Gomez- but Nook hit .262/.330/.335 in A ball- at age 21
3 years later he hit .262/.303/.351 in AAA at age 24. Nook is now a career .270/.318/.348    hitter in the majors.

I'm not going to throw up more numbers- but Endy Chavez from ages 18-21 was also pretty comparable to Gomez- except he show ZERO power. But Endy at 6'0" 150lbs is quite a bit smaller even than Nook or Gomez

by Johnny Ruin on Oct 4, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gomez is 6'4 195 now
He might of been 6'2 180 a year or two ago.  Hell Hanley was 6'1 174 on his rookiecard and he's 6'3 195+.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 4, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

really?
He doesn't look that big to me

by Johnny Ruin on Oct 5, 2007 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah your right, wow Nook is bad
Like John said in his Mets rankings, i'm not sure he'll hit for power.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2007 6:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Here's my plan
I agree with most of the sentiment of the posts above. Give Humber and Pelfrey rotation spots. Give Millidge

I think a trade for Orlando Hudson from the Diamondbacks to play second base would make a lot of sense.

-That's why I love Earth. You can do what you want, and no one makes you feel guilty because no one cares. - Dr. Zoidberg

by DrZoidberg on Oct 2, 2007 6:55 PM EDT reply actions  

I would fold
because the Phillies are just so much better. HAAAAHAAAA! GOOD TO BE IN THE PLAYOFFS! WOOHOO! This never gets old.

by mroak89 on Oct 2, 2007 7:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Phillies won't make it back for another decade
They have no farm system to trade for anyone.  Braves will return to 1st next year.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 2, 2007 7:42 PM EDT reply actions  

If all they add is Carlso Carrasco
and sign a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, this team doesn't need a farm system for awhile.

SS Rollins
2B Utley
1B Howard
CF Bourne/Werth
RF Victorino
LF Burrell
C  Coste

The only weakness is 3B.

Man if the Phillies could sign Mike Lowell this team would be the uber offense.

by FanBall on Oct 2, 2007 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eh
You need a few position prospects just in case one of those stars gets hurt.  Utley's injury almost cost them the division this year.  You could also trade those prospects to get replacements too.  Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 2, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

You people are ridiculous
Yes, they need to let their young guys play. But, were it not for one bad stretch, they'd be playoff bound with as much chance as any NL team to go to the World Series. Teams have bad years. Suck it up. My team hasn't sniffed .500 in 15 freaking years.

by my dixie wrecked on Oct 2, 2007 7:44 PM EDT reply actions  

+1
Teams go through slumps all the time.  The Mets were just unlucky enough to have their slump at the end of the season.  If they had gone 4-13 in the middle of June, their fans would be ecstatic that they got back in the race in September.  

I agree with most of the posters above, except of course, Bravesin.  Letting Green go to give Milledge a full time job is crucial.  Keeping Gomez as a 4th OF would be ideal.  Alou needs regular time off and Carlos could get as many as 400 ABs with Moises' inevitable injury.  Also, I wouldn't rule out a FA starter.  The Cubs hit the jackpot this offseason when Lilly & Marquis performed way above expectation.  Meche was similarly good in KC.  I'd let Glavine go and make Humber & Pelfrey duke it out in Spring Training for the #5 spot.  Maybe even sign Eckstein and move him to 2nd.  He couldn't be worse than Gotay, could he?  :)  Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 2, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

a couple changes
I would add a starter.  I would target Carlos Silva and if I couldn't land him I would settle for Josh Fogg or Kyle Lohse or maybe even someone else depending on the price for each player.

The Mets could then go into the season with a rotation of Pedro, Maine, Silva, El Duque, Perez

I would leave Pelfrey in AAA and he would be the 6th starter.  I know most of you posters would prefer that Pelfrey and/or Humber start the year in the rotation, but with the age of Pedro and El Duque and the inconsistencies of Perez, Pelfrey if not both of them would get chances to start some games.

Humber would prepare to be a starter in spring training, but would break with the big club as a reliever.  I would hope that a young Joe Smith and Burgos continue to improve.  And that a servicable bullpen could be put together with some combo of Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, a healthy Duaner Sanchez, Humber, Smith, Burgos, Schoeneweis, and Sosa.

I would keep Alou and Castilla.  Start Milledge in right and put Gomez back in AAA.  I feel that Gomez is too raw to not be playing everyday.  He is the first callup if/when Alou gets hurt.
I would try to bring back both LoDuca and Castro, but only for the right price.  There are plenty of servicable catchers available.  Other than that the offense stays prety much the same.

by kaisertown on Oct 2, 2007 8:23 PM EDT reply actions  

To add to the above-
I really do think Willie's a giant problem.  His tactical skills have always been weak, and his demeanor and ability to keep control of his team have now been called into question.

That said, he's coming back, and so the point is moot.  Given this, the best thing Minaya can do is to remove the temptation to play "Proven Veterans."

In the end, one of the fatal flaws of the '07 Mets was Willie's lack of trust in his younger guys and his misplaced faith in certain older vets.  Humber, Muniz, Collazo, and others should have been involved more often starting on Sept. 1.  Milledge was benched down the stretch, presumably because of his tirade towards the umpire, while Lo Duca gets a pass because of his "fire heart grit blah blah blah."  Simply unacceptable.

It's only going to get worse, and so somehow, some way, he's got to be forced into getting some of the younger and better players into the lineup--and once they're in, let them play.

by jasondg on Oct 2, 2007 10:44 PM EDT reply actions  

My Take
-Fire Rick
- Keep Willie

-Sign Scott Linebrink, Mike Timlin, and Brad Wilkerson - all short term deals (short term =3 or less years contract duration not counting options

-Trade Aaron Heilman and Carlos Gomez and Francisco Pena to Florida for Dontrelle Willis

-Resign Ramon Castro short term, have him start, and also sign a serviceable good fielding backup let Lo Duca go.

- You can call me a little idealistic, but frankly this is just about equal to Minya's 05' spending campaign, but please don't lump me in with the rest of the Met fans on the board, you know who they are, primarily cause you post complaints about them. That being said, I don't think I'm that farfetched with my proposals.

Salarywise: the Willis deal is pretty even, the FAs in total should cost about 8-14 mil annually, and with the Mets not having to pay people like Lo Duca, Glavine, Alou, and Green we might actually save money with this roster

C) Castro
1B) Delgado
2B) Gotay
SS) Reyes
3B) Wright
LF) Chavez/Wilkerson
CF) Beltran
RF) Milledge

SP) Martinez
SP) Willis
SP) Maine
SP) El Duque
SP) Perez

LR/SS) Humber
LR/SS) Pelfrey
LR) Mota
MR) Schoeneweis
MR) Smith
SU) Timlin
SU) Linebrink
CL) Wagner

  1. Reyes
  2. Gotay
  3. Wright
  4. Beltran
  5. Delgado
  6. Milledge
  7. Castro
 Chavez/Wilkerson

I don't know what to do with Pelfrey and Humber, so I'm going to say they will be deadline deals unless they can turn it around. Currently, they are spot starters, if someone gets hurt, which is more than likely, they'll go into the rotation.

by sagecoll on Oct 2, 2007 11:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Thoughtful
But a lot of risk, here, IMO.

-- Wilkerson hasn't hit well in over 2 years, has lingering injuries, and also is starting to look like a classic "Old Player Skills" guy.

-- Linebrink has been steadily dropping in component stats for the last 3 years and appears to me to be living on former glory.  (You can probably put Timlin in this category as well.)

-- Giving a 31-year old backup C coming off a career offensive year 450 ABs is a huge gamble.

-- Relying on Pedro as the #1 is scary enough, but adding to the risk with Dontrelle as your #2 is frightening.  He's logged way too many IPs at a young age, and his stuff has become far more hittable.  His rising walk totals are also a huge liability, especially if you want to start Castro.

Bottom line, some of your proposals are interesting, and I give you credit for trying to manage within the realm of reality.  But, to me, one of the great benefits of a revenue stream like the one that the Mets have is that they shouldn't need to take on this much risk.  These are the sorts of moves revenue-neutral teams like the Twins and A's need to make, not a team with a payroll north of $120M.

by Yakker on Oct 3, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Da Mets
Bringing back Willie Randolph is a big mistake. This couldn't be more obvious (well, to me!).

The A's have too many excellent RPs - why not snag one or two of them?

by Kreylix on Oct 3, 2007 2:52 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree with most of the above posters.
  1. I'm torn about Willie.  On the one hand, I don't blame him AT ALL for the Mets collapse, so I hate to see a knee-jerk reaction.  On the other hand, he's not the best in-game manager, so if you can find a better alternative, cut him loose and hire it.  But probably you can't.
  2. Do not trade Gomes, and for God's sake don't use him as a 4th OF.  Let him develop on the minors.  He's still young.  Sign a cheap 4th OF, like everyone else does.
  3. Whatever you do, do not spend for bullpen help.  It's pretty obvious both statistically and anecdotally that this never helps.  Look on the scrap heap and see what you can find.  You'd be surprised how often this works, as the guys on the scrap heap haven't begun the three-year run relievers usually get before they sign a three-year contract and crap out.  What's more, the guys who got you there aren't all that bad.
  4. As people have suggested, sign a platoon mate for Delgado and look into Pudge.  If you can't get Pudge on incentives or a one-year deal or something, just go with Castro.  Posada is too old, will be too expensive, and will probably stay on the other side of town anyway.  And LoDuca is one of the most overrated players in the game.  Let Green go, stick with Milledge.  Talent trumps attitude.
  5. Despite the rending of garments, gnashing of teeth, and pictures of crying children, this is a really good team that won 88 games.  Without any significant changes, this is a pretty good roster:
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
CF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Lastings Milledge
2B Ruben Gotay
C  Castro/Pudge (prolly Castro)

SP Pedro
SP Maine
SP Perez
SP Pelfrey
SP Humber

RP Wagner
RP Heilman
RP Feliciano
RP Smith
RP Burgos

Plus, you've got Mulvey waiting in the wings, and Heilman as a potential starter if you need one.

6. The only other thing I can see doing, if you wanna splurge, is something along the lines of trading Milledge for a quality SP, someone like Blanton (though his K rate scares me, even in the NL at Shea, see if you can't find someone better), and then splurging on someone like Fukodome.  Or Aaron Rowand, and play two CFs.

by abbreviatedman on Oct 3, 2007 7:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Mets
  1. Keep Willie.  BUT hire a Larry Bowa-type (Girardi?) and make him the 3b coach/bench coach.  You know, just in case...
  2. Barring an available Santana or a cheap Dontrelle Willis (something less than F-Mart/Pena...maybe a Milledge/Humber + Heilman?), the rotation is as follows : Pedro-Maine-Perez-Duque-Pelfrey.  Keep Humber in AAA for the inevitable breakdown.
  3. The bullpen : Mota has to go.  Release him.  See if anyone's willing to take Schoenweis at half-price.  If not, use him like Darren Oliver in 2005.  Here's the tricky part : see what we could get for Heilman and Wagner.  The farm is a bit barren for relief prospects, but I'd be interested in seeing what those two could fetch, since high-end relief is at a premium and those two definitely represent it.  I also happen to think they're both injuries waiting to happen (Heilman moreso than Wagner).  Like several posters have already mentioned, the scrap heap should produce solid relief, esp. as Omar used this route to great success in 2005-06.  DO NOT go broke on relief in FA, or count on Duaner Sanchez.  Mayhaps we take a flier on a cheap Farnsworth off the Yankees and let the guru (Peterson) start guruing?
  4. The outfield is as follows : CF Beltran, LF Alou, RF Milledge.  Gomez starts the year in AAA, and at the first (inevitable) sign of injury, we plug the hole with him.  
  5. 2b : If Castillo will resign on the cheap, preferably for a 1 year deal, with a vesting second year, bring him back.  If not, it's Gotay with late inning defensive help from Anderson Hernandez (who I actually think is the better of the two).
  6. Delgado.  He's 35 and he's not getting any better, folks.  Yes, it's a contract year, so offer him around the league and see if anyone would take him, half-price, for a decent prospect.  Maybe to the Angels for Morales (who the club seems to have soured on), or in some expanded permutation, also bringing back Mathis?  Otherwise, bring back Delgado hope for the best, and rely on the bench...
  7. The bench.  This is going to sound crazy, but did anyone notice Shawn Green doing 290/350 this year?  He also plays a good 1st base and is serviceable in the corners.  He's a lefty with some doubles power.  Pretend his name is Gawn Shreen and resign him as a part-time player.  The rest of the bench shakes out as Endy, Castro/Mathis, AHern, and Marlon Anderson.  It's a versatile bench that provides a little bit of everything, and keeps you covered.  It's what a bench is supposed to do.
  8. Regarding catcher, Paul LoDuca should be resigned if he's willing to accept a below-market  1-2 year deal with a vesting option.  There's still a little life in his bat, and he's apparently great with the pitchers/in the clubhouse.  Otherwise, see if Pudge will accept 2 years, with LOTS of incentives.  Failing both those options, start Castro.  Assuming Mathis has been acquired, he will back up at first, and it's my intuition that he would fairly quickly win the starting job (Castro just isn't cut out to be an everyday catcher). If there is no Mathis, bring up Joe Heitpas and his comically bad bat.  It comes at the league minimum, and brings with it the absolute best defense/staff handling possible.  Memo to Omar if he is reading this : Please do not bust a nut trying to bring in Ronny Paulino.  He's not that good, and the Pirates will probably be asking too much for him.  Just because you dealt well with the Pirates once, doesn't mean that good things come from Pittsburgh all the time.
It's a fairly conservative plan, granted, but that's what this team needs.  A winter to stew over the biggest September collapse in baseball history should be enough to fire these guys up.  As has been mentioned above, the core of this team is still very, very good.  Hopefully Reyes sorts out whatever's been bothering him and goes back to being the player he was the first 5 months of the season.  Stick a C on David Wright's uniform in Spring Training, and hope he is ready to blossom as much in the clubhouse as he has on the field.  This team needs a leader who can do it on the field, as much as in the clubhouse (sorry, Delgado/LoDuca/the ghost of Julio Franco).  AAA and the rest of the minors should provide ample reinforcements with Mulvey, Humber, Vargas, and Bostick comprising a terrific AAA rotation and Gomez/Johnson proving OF coverage.  Evans and Carp  are break-glass in case of emergency types who should be allowed as much time as they need, and let's not forget that F-Mart and Pena are on their way.  Bonus Prediction : Martinez FORCES his way into the show by late summer 2008, a la Justin Upton.  

I think the 2008 Mets will actually be better than the 2006 Mets, assuming Omar is prudent and doesn't make any rash moves.  Hopefully, he even does what I suggest here.  And maybe Tom Seaver finds a real anti-aging clinic, takes Doc Gooden with him, becomes 25 again, and help lead the Mets to World Series glory.  Or maybe, just maybe, a rebuilt Pedro Martinez recaptures the excitement of 2005 and 2006, and leads a hungry Mets team, complete with MVP showings from Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, through a dominant regular season and an exciting October all the way to our first ring in 22 years.

by GuyinNY on Oct 3, 2007 10:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Dontrelle
Simply mind-boggling that people are willing to deal even mid-level prospects for this guy.

Anyone actually watch him pitch the last year, year and a half?

And no, Peterson can't save him.

by jasondg on Oct 3, 2007 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dontrelle
I'm fairly certain that Willis' problems come from playing in front of a brutal Marlins defense as well as his added bulk.  Ron Darling, during the last Mets game of the season, pointed out that without the flexibility Willis had when he first came into the league, he's lost some of his deception and effectiveness.   Also, as a contact lefty, Willis relies pretty heavily on his defense.  With no defense to rely on, he has to do everything himself, and that has led him to become erratic and inneffective as a starter.  But then, this is just my opinion based on the few starts of his I see a year.  What do you think the problem is?

by GuyinNY on Oct 3, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

he's pitching hurt
a lot of innings on that arm at a young age.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 3, 2007 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Heitpas (and his comically bad bat)
is a pitcher now.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Joe-Hietpas.shtml

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Oct 3, 2007 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

re: Dontrelle
Agree with everything you just wrote--but unlike you, I'm not at all convinced it's fixable, and even if it is, I've always found Willis to be extraordinarily overhyped (as most "Met killers" are).  As you say, he's a low K/high BB contact pitcher, and he's always been a high WHIP guy.  Contrast that to our own lefty reclamation project, Oliver Perez.  

Additionally, I'm not so sure the added bulk can come off Willis's frame so easily.  I was listening to Darling's comments as well; I was under the impression he felt that Willis's mechanics evolution wasn't reversible.  Unlike Cabrera, Dontrelle isn't fat--just bigger and stronger.  Sort of a Ruben Sierra-esque transformation.

Any idea what his BABIP was in 2005?  I don't know what it is, but I'm curious to know.

by jasondg on Oct 3, 2007 11:53 AM EDT reply actions  

here they are
BABIP in 2005: .306 2006: .317 2007: .328

by Bravesin07 on Oct 3, 2007 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

And
Here are Willis's component #s the last 3 years:

K/9

  1.  6.8
  2.  6.4
  3.  6.0
BB/9
  1.  2.2
  2.  3.3
  3.  3.6
That's not just a defense problem, and (to me) it screams stay away.

by Yakker on Oct 3, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I was GM
Manager: Bobby Valentine - I love the guy and I love the way he interacts with the media.  There is no way he would have let what happened happen.

C : Pudge or Posada - If either is available then they should go after them.  They need an AL catcher who calls a better game then Lo Duca or Castro. Johnny Estrada and Jason Kenadall could also be options.  I think Lo Duca's game calling was a big reason for the collapse.
1B: Carlos Delgado - No choice.
2B: Orlando Hudson - If the Diamondbacks do fine w/o him in the playoffs they'll be more likely to trade him in the offseason and they have replacements.
3B: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
RF: Lastings Millege
CF: Carlos Beltran
LF: Moises Alou - They'll be two OF's on the bench to replace him if necessary.
Bench: Carlos Gomez, Endy Chavez, Ramon Castro, Reuben Gotay, Sean Casey FA, and Anderson Hernandez

SP: John Maine
SP: Oliver Perez
SP: Mike Pelfrey
SP: Phil Humber
SP: Pedro Martinez
RP: Aaron Heilman  
RP: Duaner Sanchez
RP: Pedro Feliciano
RP: Scott Linebrink FA
RP: Joe Kennedy FA
CL: Billy Wagner
-I'm only using 11 pitchers.  My other option would be to leave Gotay or A-Hern off and keep El-Duque.  Obviously I would love to add an ace but I don't know that one is availble with talent they have available to offer.

by AdRoK on Oct 3, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Is Orlando Hudson on the market?
I hear a lot of bloggers across the land for different teams saying "We should trade for Orlando Hudson".

Hudson has the team's leading .AVG of around .300, he's a good clubhouse guy, has a good glove, is well liked by the fans, their starting second baseman is now 35 year old Augie Ojeda and the Diamondbacks are 16-16 without Hudson in the lineup this year.  

I mean if the D-backs have said "This guys is available, start the bidding gentleman", then fine, but I haven't heard anything myself and it doesn't make sense to trade him.

Also, what would you offer to get Hudson?

by FanBall on Oct 3, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Market
Augie Ojeda may be starting now but next year it could be Alberto Callaspo or Mark Reynolds.

Not sure?  Perhaps a package starting with Joe Smith and Anderson Hernandez.

by AdRoK on Oct 3, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pudge/Lo Duca/Castro
.281/.294/.420 87 OPS+ 10,567,639
.272/.311/.378 81 OPS+ 6,600,823
.285/.331/.556 129 OPS+ 850,000

by BlackOps on Oct 3, 2007 4:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Pudge/Lo Duca/Castro...
...12 months ago:

.300/.332/.437
.318/.355/.428
.238/.322/.389

Just sayin'.

by Yakker on Oct 3, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lo Duca
Guy's a warrior, but methinks the tank's out of gas.  If he's not hitting for a high average, he's more or less worthless.  Overall, he's got less going for him than Piazza did when Omar ran him out of town.  

I'm not for handing Castro the starting job outright, but the Mets were clearly better off with him in the lineup.

Also, I'm with the guy above--please, Omar, don't give up the farm for Ronny f-ing Paulino.

by jasondg on Oct 3, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed
Regarding L-D, I've never been a fan.

But my only point was that I'm not convinced of Castro's bat on the strength of 140 good ABs in 2006 (given some pretty poor ones previously).  Plus, he's pretty poor defensively, so if that 850 OPS drops to 725, you're flirting with negative WS territory.

by Yakker on Oct 3, 2007 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro
Agreed on the small sample size of success, although Castro showed flashes w/ the Marlins as well.  Again, I'd simply give him the shot to earn 100 or so starts--there's no name out there that looks like a significant upgrade, Pudge included.

Castro's defense is certainly better than Lo Duca's, at least.  In any case, I'm not one to harp on catching defense.  I'd have kept Piazza for another year in the first place.

by jasondg on Oct 3, 2007 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well
I'd first note that Castro's "flashes" with the Marlins came at Age 27 and were all of 53 ABs.  IMO, it's pure wish-casting to think he can hit at the major-league level.  Also, not to nit-pick too much, but doesn't giving Castro "the shot to earn 100 or so starts" suffer from precisely the same small sample size problem?  Let's say he earns the job by OPS'ing at 850 in 50 spring training ABs.  What comfort does that bring?

In addition, some of the roster management probably needs to be done during the offseason (i.e., either signing a first-string C or not).

Honestly, I'm not sure what the answer is at C in 2008.  I don't think that paying big, big money to Lo Duca or Pudge makes sense.  But I also think that the Mets set themselves up for a huge failure with Castro if they rely on him to produce and he doesn't.  That's not the sort of gamble a big-revenue team like the Mets needs to make.

Personally, I would try to find someone else with a solid baseline OPS around 750 or so, but who provides good defense (we disagree about the quality of Castro's defense, which I think is pretty poor) and can throw out more than 10% of the guys who run on him.

by Yakker on Oct 3, 2007 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro
All fair points.

It's possible my evaluation of Castro's defense is skewed by having to watch Lo Duca day in and day out.  

In the end, is there anyone out there w/ a baseline .750 OPS?  Off the top of my head, I can't think of more than 8-10 starting catchers who might meet that criteria.

Is it possible that the best answer at C is no answer?

by jasondg on Oct 3, 2007 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stat
There were 10 ML C with OPS higher than .750 with more than 350 PA.  Posada, Martinez, Martin, Mauer, Varitek, Snyder, McCann, Bard, Johjima, Zaun.  Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 3, 2007 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

2006
And if you're the sort to like betting on bouncebacks, there's 9 more names to add to the list from 2006:  Pudge, Lo Duca, Pierzysnki, R. Hernandez, Paulino, B. Molina, Piazza, Barrett, and Buck.

by Yakker on Oct 3, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I was GM, I would...
a) Fire Willie... Oh well.. too late... I would have liked Girardi or Frank Robinson... Someone to teach them fundamentals and respect for the game..
b) Definitely not sign Glavine (Thank god he's going to decline his option)
c) Trade for an STP... Hopefully an Ace like Santana but more likely a quality starter that can give you innings eater like Ted Lilly, Dontrelle Willis, or Dan Haren.  
d) Fix the bullpen.  Get Rid of Mota... Hopefully, D.Sanchez can come back or trade for a reliever...  Chad Cordero would be ideal...
e) Put El Duque in the Pen
f) Start Milledge, if not trade him...
e) Resign both catchers for a couple of years if Pudge is not available.
f) Resign Luis Castillo but keep R.Gotay around for insurance
g) Keep Moises Alou... Endy Chavez and Carlos Gomez are good insurance
h) Keep Marlon Anderson
i) If Shawn Green agrees to be a bench player, sign hime to a one-year contract.
j) Oh yeah... Get rid of quirky Rickey Henderson... Other than being aggressive on the bases (which could be a bad thing if caught stealing at a bad time), he does not look like he can contribute anything else...
k) Soon, maybe at the all-star break, look for a replacement for Carlos Delgado...

I think that's it...  

by louief1 on Oct 3, 2007 10:47 PM EDT reply actions  

My plan....
First of all, it's not a bad team.  But you have to realize where they are.  They've got a bunch of talent under 25 years old.  It's a different situation from the Phillies, whose core talent is all 26-30.  The Mets have really been rebuilding, and trying to compete at the same time.  They tried to supplement that young talent with some past their prime players on short term contracts.  Most of the age 32 and over guys have disappointed some, as is to be expected.  

The first thing I'm going to try to do here is let some of those older guys whose contracts are up go.  Next, two of them still under contract, who still have some value, Wagner and Delgado, I'd be shopping in trades.  If I can get value for Wagner, I'd give Heilman a chance to close.  Pedro Martinez is the other mid 30's guy under contract, but him I keep.

Next, I'm looking to acquire more talent in the 26-32 range.

  1. My number one target is Adam Dunn for 1B.  If the Reds don't pick up his option, I' all over this in the FA market.  If they do, I'll still consider a trade.
  2. For a SP, I like Jason Jennings in the FA market.  He should be healthy by April.  
  3. I don't like to spend too much on relievers, but the bullpen needs help.  I'll look at Scott Linebrink and Japanese reliever Masahide Kobayashi.
  4. For left field, I'd look at Milton Bradley.  
  5. I'd love to add a decent catcher, but there aren't really any in the FA market.  Here I have to persue trades, or settle for Lo Duca returning if he'll accept arbitration.  I'd inquire about Shoppach from Cleveland.  They seem set with Victor Martinez starting.
I would also shore up the pen by moving El Duque there, and possibly Phil Humber, who seems to be lights out the first time through a lineup.

If everything goes right:
SP: Pedo Martinez, Oliver Perez, Jason Jennings, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey
BP: Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Scott Linebrink, Orlando Hernandez, Jorge Sosa, Phil Humber, Scott Schoeneweis

Lineup: Reyes (SS), Castillo (2B), Wright (3B), Beltran (CF), Dunn (1B), Bradley (LF), Milledge (RF), Shoppach (CA)
Bench: Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, Ruben Gotay, Ramon Castro, Endy Chavez

AAA: Kevin Mulvey, Joe Smith, Carlos Muniz, Carlos Gomez, Anderson Hernandez, Ben Johnson.  Mota if he clears waivers and accepts assignment after not making the team in ST.

As for coaching staff, I brig back Randoplh and most of the coaches.  But I fire or transfer Rickey Henderson, and let Willie pick a replacement.  Also I ban Tony Berazard from the clubhouse.  I want Willie to run this clubhouse.

And, I'm always looking for a true ace pitcher, but I'm assuming there won't be one available at a price I'd be willing to pay right now.

by acerimusdux on Oct 4, 2007 8:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Yikes
glad i'm not the GM, can you imagine Milledge and Bradley on the same team.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 4, 2007 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yowsa
Yeah, imagine having possibly three All-Star caliber players roaming around in the same outfield.  Scary stuff for the NL East.  Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Oct 6, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

No Milton Bradley...
Mets do not need anymore attitude problems on the team...

and No Adam Dunn...  High K, Low Avg...  Team has enough strikeout hitters...  At Shea, he might become the next Dave Kingman and he'll be lucky to hit 35 hrs...

by louief1 on Oct 10, 2007 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

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