2007 REVISED Yankees Prospect List

by John Sickels on Jan 9, 2007 11:47 AM EST in News Comment 28 comments

Revised 2007 New York Yankees Prospect List

Phil Hughes, RHP, Grade A
Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B+
Humberto Sanchez, RHP, Grade B+
Joba Chamberlain, RHP, B
Tyler Clippard, RHP, B
Dellin Betances, RHP, B
J. Brent Cox, RHP, B
George Kontos, RHP, B-
Christian Garcia, RHP, B-
Ian Kennedy, RHP, B-
Tim Norton, RHP, B-
Ross Ohlendorf, RHP, C+
Kevin Whelan, RHP, C+
Stephen Jackson, RHP, C+
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, C+
Brett Gardner, OF, C+
Jeff Marquez, RHP, C+
Zach McAllister, RHP, C+
Chase Wright, LHP, C+
Francisco Cervelli, C, C+
T.J. Beam, RHP, C
Eric Duncan, 1B, C
Mitch Hilligoss, SS, C

Comments: Kontos and Norton are rated aggressively at B-. I thought about changing that, but after considerable thought I decided to stick to my original instincts. We don't want everyone's prospect list to look identical, do we? Ohlendorf and Whelan are closer to being ready to help, so if you are looking more in the short run you should move them a few spots ahead.

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Another M?

Where'd Melancon go? I believe he was rated a C+ (a B w/o the injury). Has he dropped to a C or lower?

Thanks,
-Will

by cooper7d7 on Jan 9, 2007 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Melancon double standard

If this is true and John dropped Melancon due to his surgery, why not Garcia? While Melancon is expected to pitch in 2007, Garcia is not, which will be nearly two years from the bump. If Melancon fell out of the list for injur reasons, I don't understand why Garcia does not at least fall to the back-end of the 20.

by beanEsnapper on Jan 9, 2007 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Melancon

was at 13 in the original list. I guess his surgery caused John to drop him.

by 12to6 on Jan 9, 2007 12:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gonzalez and Jackson?

I'm not extremely familiar with John's ranking methods, but shouldnt the other 2 guys from the D-Backs trade (both rated at C+) be on here ahead of two of the lowest three prospects (each rated at C)? If a 'C' prospect is for some reason thought of more highly than a 'C+' prospect, than shouldnt he be rated higher? I'm sure I'm just missing something, and many of you could probably explain it to me. Thanks.

by Papelbonificent on Jan 9, 2007 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

list

That's because I posted the wrong list. Will fix.

by John Sickels on Jan 9, 2007 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

steven white? what lists? yeah, i see him as the #2 yankee pitcher on a couple of lists... from 2005. last year he was a 25-year-old putting up ok but largely uninteresting numbers in AA and AAA.

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2007 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

But there isn't a single self-respecting list that would rank Steven White as the #2 Yankees pitching prospect. He doesn't have the stuff; the results or age on his side. He profiles as a back of the rotation starter at best.

by 12to6 on Jan 10, 2007 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

list

I posted a list that was just half-way done rather than the completed list. Sorry.

by John Sickels on Jan 9, 2007 12:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How good can J. Brent Cox be ?

is he seriously the next closer or just a setup man?

by Darce on Jan 9, 2007 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Yankees system...

has some serious pitching potential.

I remember John talking about Kontos at some point during this season. What kind of arm does this guy have? His numbers look very impressive, but it was SS.

One thing I've always wanted to know is...most scouting reports I used to read about Tyler Clippard said he pitched at 89-91 and touching as high as 94. Considering Clippard is tall (6'4), and weights practically nothing, isn't it concievable he'll add muscle and potentially velocity? He doesn't have the cieling of an ace, but I think the guy has his stuff highly underrated.

I remember McCallister being decently touted coming out of HS. What kind of arm does this guy own? Am I even think of the same Zach?

by SenorGato88 on Jan 9, 2007 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

projectability

i'm about as projectable as they come - 6'2", 165. too bad i'm 30 years old and throw 55.

i do have natural arm-side run on my fastball. seriously! but, it's still 55.

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2007 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan as a C

I know he was a C on your last list, but I think that's a little hard on him. I know his numbers in the minors are mediocre, but he was playing in AA and AAA at 21, against older and more advanced players. He has on occasion (last year's AFL and this year's Spring Training) shown that he is capable of being an excellent hitter. Given his potential ceiling, I think he's at least worthy of C+. This year should decide everything.

yanksandmore.blogspot.com check it out

by lemonjello on Jan 9, 2007 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

he also

was pretty good in AA this year before his back started hurting again

by bmxstreetrider86 on Jan 9, 2007 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Top Prospects

John,
Thanks for the updated Yankee list. How about an updated Diamondback one when you get the time?

by VaDad on Jan 9, 2007 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

new guys' order

hey john,

how did ohlendorf go to rated higher than jackson and gonzalez in the yanks system when you had jackson and gonzalez ranked ahead of him when you did the dbacks system?

18 jackson -> 13 ohlendorf
19 gonzalez -> 14 jackson
20 ohlendorf -> 15 gonzalez

none of these guys have played since you wrote that list but their order changes drastically. is that because of value to the yankees compared to the dbacks or chances of contributing, etc?

by jesterno2 on Jan 9, 2007 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The

original ranks he put up were preliminary, and he went through all of it again before finalizing the book.

by Brickhaus on Jan 9, 2007 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And he stated that C+ are mostly interchangable

I doubt differentiating between the 13th, 14th or 15th best prospect is something to sweat over

by William K on Jan 9, 2007 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll say it again

The Eric Duncan rating might be the weirdest one in the book. He managed fantastic Isos at AA at age 21. Yeah, he wasn't read for AAA. Big deal. He's still got all the tools to be a premium bat at the highest level, and now it looks like he might have his strikeout problem under control a little too. In another, A-rod-less organization he'd still be a 3B prospect.

Sure he had a poor batting average in 206 AB. He also had a .259 BABIP, which is flukishly low. He's been an Iso monster at every level, and the main question has been whether he can cut down on his strikeouts enough to hit for decent average. I think his AA progress proved that he can do that, and I expect a huge breakout from Duncan next year, when he'll only be 22 in AA or AAA.

I'm very high on Duncan and wouldn't have any trouble with him at a gutsy B+ grade. I do have a problem with him at #22 in the organization without even a "plus" next to his C grade. Duncan's tools, performance, and ARL warrant much better.

by limozeen on Jan 9, 2007 7:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

consistency

Well, B+ sounds equally ridiculous to me in all honesty. Duncan earned a B- last year and while he improved his power production and contact rate at Trenton, he was also repeating the league and his persistent back trouble is not a positive. I could see his grade staying about the same when you weight it all together; a significant upgrade or downgrade seems unwarranted in my opinion.

To John's credit, he's been pretty consistent with these types of players. Check out Wladimir Balentien's grade - that one surprised me as well.

by FI on Jan 9, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

x

The only reason he repeated the league was because he was rushed in the first place. Unlike Balentien, Duncan has shown good strikeout numbers and a great K/BB for a power hitter. He's a year younger than Balentien and had nothing close to the contact issues.

I would give Duncan a B, but an out-on-a-limb B+ wouldn't be out of question.

by limozeen on Jan 9, 2007 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

y

Yeah, I understand that he was rushed int eh first place, but there's a fine line between taking that into consideration and giving a player too much credit just because he's at a higher level than his peers.

As we've both noted, his strikeout numbers improved and he maintained his solid power production. So those are some reasons to bump him up from a 'B-' grade from last year. But consider the negatives;

He was a year older
Missed more and more time due to his back problems (seems like it's going to be a long-term issue)
Inconsistency was a problem; he was actually terrible for most of the year save for one great month at Trenton.
He is playing more and more games at first base rather than third base, which negatively impacts his value as a player.

It all evens out in my opinion, though depending on how serious you think the back problem is I guess you could go either way to a C+ or B.

by FI on Jan 9, 2007 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what i'd like to see

somebody should do an age vs. level retrospective. find a bunch of these guys who were really young, like 21-year-olds in AAA, and not like miguel cabrera style child prodigies but guys who were putting up mediocre numbers and nobody was quite sure how good they were, and see how they turned out. i'll do it if i get time.

i mean i'm sure it's been studied. i don't really want definitive data, though; i want fragmented, anecdotal evidence, feel-good case studies.

by wily mo on Jan 9, 2007 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

some cases

It's tough to do, because you would be dealing with small sample sizes.

In Duncan's case, the most comparable numbers among youngsters in double-A might belong to Guillermo Quiroz. Quiroz' health issues were unique, however, so I'm not sure that's a great comparison for Duncan.

Cody Ross and Kevin Barker are other guys with similar numbers as a 21-year-olds in double-A.

by FI on Jan 10, 2007 6:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

missed it the first time, but...

I agree with limo here, 100%. And I think the Duncan rating is going to be one that John's not going to be proud of in retrospect. I'd rather have Duncan than Votto.

by BobbyMac on Jan 10, 2007 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan...

...didn't hit a lick in the AFL. For the season , between double A and the AFL, Duncan hit 11 homers in 314 at-bats. His high pop-up rate in 2006 contributed to his low BABIP.

22 year old first baseman with back trouble, who has shown moderate power and decent but not great strike zone control, at double A? C is reasonable. C+ is justifiable. More than that puts a whole lotta weight on "power potential" which Duncan hasn't really shown yet.

by Mike Green on Jan 10, 2007 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs