Projection Results: Alexis Rios

1. Playing time- Rios played more than a full season in 2003 (Eastern League regular season, playoffs, Olympic qualifying and Winter League), played a full season between triple A and MLB in 2004, was given a fair bit of time off in 2005 due to ineffectiveness and would have played a full season in 2006 except for an unusual staph infection associated with the club's locker room. Overall, the record is consistent with a player of at least average durability, and he's likely to bat second.
2.  Power- Rios' approach changed completely in 2006.  He learned to pull and elevate.  His ball in play distribution reflects that.  He has the build to sustain and actually further improve on his power.

You can equally well take a skeptical approach, and point out that he only had really 1/2 a season of success.  Time will tell.

I don't think his HR total is optimistic at all, he was just under Vernon Wells' home run pace before his staph infection zapped him of his power. I would say he is a darkhouse 30HR candidate this year.

As a Jays fan, the homerism in me says he can hit 35 homers a year absolute best case scenario. He has the physical power to do it. I've seen him in batting practice and he has the most power on the team. His plate discipline isn't the best, but if he gets in the zone I can see him doing quite well last  year. Anyway, that's just the optimistic part in me. Realistically, I don't think 20-25 is at all out of his range over a full season. If you don't drink the kool-aid at all, then the safe bet is 15-20.

Rios seems like the type to me that will hit for more power as he gets more comfortable. His track record has been to hit for average first, and the power comes when he is comfortable at that level. From what I read/hear, Adam Lind is the same way. I wonder if that approach is being taught in the Blue Jays system? I think 20-25 homeruns is possible this season.

Would the Jays really be foolish enough to move this guy as the rumors suggest? I know they need pitching but guys like Rios don't exactly just fall in your lap everday.

Well Riccardi kept his ears open...probably wanted a good young pitcher considering we were desperate. But I agree, every time he fails at something it works out...Rios could have upside over this base of 23 homeruns/295 average that everyon has predicted.