2007 Texas Rangers Prospects

by John Sickels on Jan 2, 2007 4:32 PM EST in News Comment 34 comments

2007 Texas Rangers Top 20 Prospects

Eric Hurley, RHP, Grade A- (I like him better than Danks right now)
Thomas Diamond, RHP, Grade B (Status has slipped a bit but still interesting)
John Mayberry Jr, OF, Grade B (Midwest League numbers are better than they look on the surface)
Edinson Volquez, RHP, B (Wild guess on the grade. I don't trust the Rangers to develop him properly)
Kasey Kiker, LHP, B (nice young lefty arm from '06 draft)
Wes Littleton, RHP, B- (under the 50 inning limit)
Taylor Teagarden, C, B- (one of my favorites until he got hurt, hope he recovers well)
Chad Tracy, C, B- (intriguing bat to supplant Teagarden if neeeded)
Jason Botts, 1B, C+ (too old to rank higher but a strong bat)
Nelson Cruz, OF, C+ (toolsy, needs to refine the strike zone still)
Joaquin Arias, SS, C+ (toolsy, doubt his bat at this point)
Josh Rupe, RHP, C+ (possible relief contributor)
Marcus Lemon, SS, C+ (a personal favorite)
Danny Ray Herrera, LHP, C+ (how far will that changeup carry him?)
Chris Davis, 1B, C+ (interesting bat to track)
German Duran, SS, C+ (a sleeper prospect)
Emerson Frostad, C, C+ (good bat, not sure about defense)
Anthony Webster, OF, C+ (personal favorite as fourth outfield type)
Francisco Cruceta, RHP, C (would have a better chance to develop elsewhere i fear)
Ben Harrison, OF, C (power bat should be tracked)

Others of Note: Brandon Boggs, OF; Jacob Brigham, RHP; Armando Galaraga, RHP; Craig Gentry, RHP; Grant Gerrard, OF; Nate Gold, 1B; Dan Haigwood, LHP, Tim Hulett, 2B; Kevin Mahar, OF; Travis Metcalf, 3B; Steve Murphy, OF; Omar Poveda, RHP; John Whittleman, 3B.

The Rangers in One Sentence: The Danks trade rips up some of their system pitching depth.

This is the last of the Top 20 lists. I will be doing grade revisions over the next day or two and will have a seperate post about them. The book goes to the printer on Friday, so everything has to be complete by then.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Comments

Hurley

Dang, an A-, and ranked #1. There goes my sleeper pick this year - I knew I should have grabbed him in the last round last year.

Seems like a defensible grade that is going to generate some controversy, though.

by siddfynch on Jan 2, 2007 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ball Park

I have a hard time giving a Texas pitcher an A- because of the park affect. Part of rating a prospect is projecting the likely hood of that prospect reaching their potential. I don't think Hurley as long as he's with the Rangers atleast will prove worthy of such a rating. I may rate him out as a B+ once again your putting Hurley ahead of Adenhart and others when I think Adenhart is almost often referred to as being well ahead of Hurley. I guess we are entitled to our own opinions. But, these are mine.

by nate050904 on Jan 2, 2007 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you cant apply that to every pitcher

hurley induces more ground balls than fly balls. the rangers often arent smart enough to bring in guys that are known for getting GB rather than FB. Hurley is going to be an exception

by rangersfan24 on Jan 2, 2007 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

its about time hurley got some love!!

most people either dont know about rangers pitching prospects or dont value them because they are just that- rangers pitching prospects. Hurley will be good, and he will prove the doubters wrong. He isnt the next King Felix or anything, but hes gonna be a good one

by rangersfan24 on Jan 2, 2007 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John, re: Danks

You forgot to put Danks in at all...

by BaseballBrain on Jan 2, 2007 5:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

probably.....

because he was traded to the White Sox

by JFP on Jan 2, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

D'oh! I'm an idiot

But he should probably be graded here anyway, it's his last chance.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 2, 2007 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haigwood

he has average stuff and average control. he isn't a groundball specialist, and he doesn't strike guys out at a better than average rate.

what a waste of a second round pick. but hey, at least i got yovani gallardo in the first round.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Jan 2, 2007 5:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Danks hasn't been rated yet

John, what's Danks' rating? He was traded after the White Sox ratings were posted.

by bhoov on Jan 2, 2007 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I knew you'd put Hurley ahead of Danks.

So, Danks must be a B+, IYO.

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Jan 2, 2007 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Danks

Danks B+

by John Sickels on Jan 2, 2007 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

To hijack, but John, similar situation: Did you ever grade Hirsh?

by drwmsu1 on Jan 2, 2007 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hirsh

B+

by John Sickels on Jan 2, 2007 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thank You! n/m

by drwmsu1 on Jan 2, 2007 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and

Jesus Flores? clearly not even close to the same level as Hirsh or Danks, but never got rated either due to Rule V.

by drob320 on Jan 3, 2007 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What's up with all of the paranthetical

comments slamming the Rangers ability to develop pitching.

They drafted very little pitching talent 1997-2002, which is the group of draft picks hitting their prime in the majors. There are numerous reasons the Rangers didn't draft so many high-end arms: lack of upper-round draft picks, organizational philosophy, poor scouting.

So, what do you know about their development process that leads you to believe some of the prospects will be developed poorly? Couldn't it just be that the Rangers farm system just didn't have enough high-end talent until recently?

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Jan 2, 2007 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Always like John's

unique perspective on the Rangers. First of all, Nelson Cruz is over 130 AB so I don't think he'd qualify.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 2, 2007 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

cruz

my limit is 150. Can sneak a few extra guys in that way.

by John Sickels on Jan 2, 2007 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah

okay

by Brett Perryman on Jan 2, 2007 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Second

Names that you'd usually see on a Ranger fan's top 20: Fabio Castillo (should have been at least mentioned probably), Poveda

Names that you'd typically see on a Ranger fan's honorable mention: AJ Murray, Doug Mathis, Paul Kometani, Michael Schlact, and one or more of the young catchers.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 2, 2007 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How does Kiker 2006 compare to Danks 2003?

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Jan 2, 2007 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What about Masset's grade?

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Jan 2, 2007 5:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tug Hulett

I presume; Tim is his father....Or is Tug's given name Tim? Now I'm really confused.

"To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine

by jrose643 on Jan 2, 2007 8:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He's Tim Jr.

...but goes by Tug.

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 2, 2007 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John

First of all let me say that this is a very nice and in-depth list, and thank you for publishing it.

I disagree with several of your grades, but I'm an unabashed Rangers homer, so that's to be expected.

However, I was wondering about you thought process regarding Omar Poveda. He's a big, projectable (6-4, 185) Venezuelan who at 18 spent the entire season in the MWL. He posted a rather pedestrian 4-13 record with a 4.88 ERA. However, his age was low relative to that league, and his K/BB ratio of 133/37 really stood out to me.

IMO he's a much better prospect than some of the guys you ranked, and a borderline B-/C+ guy.

He's my pitching breakout candidate for '07.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on him.

Thanks.

"When you can hit, you can hit, and he can hit." -Tom Grieve on Michael Young.

by thedirkatron on Jan 2, 2007 9:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I was kinda shocked to see Omar Poveda not in the top 10, let alone the top 20. I'd love to know more about hime

by yacck23 on Jan 3, 2007 6:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I was shocked to see that ranking.

by drob320 on Jan 3, 2007 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Add me

to the list who thinks Poveda's omission is an error that needs correcting. He had a bit of a rollercoaster ride (early success, a string of bad starts, ended with some better ones) but I agree that the K-rate and K:BB are telling. I generally draft a few hard-throwing but unknown teenage guys every year (Carlos Zambrano, King Felix, and Ervin Santana paid off, Denny Bautista hasn't) and I snagged Poveda last year based on the BA report. Am I mistaken or was he the pitcher that a major league catcher caught while on rehab? If so the catcher came away pretty impressed by Poveda's stuff and pitchability.

by blackoutyears on Jan 5, 2007 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Comp to BA's Top 10

Once again, my compliments on including someone in your top 10 that was omitted by BA. Last year it was the Yanks list on which BA did not include JB Cox. If memory serves, you had him at No. 3. This year, BA overlooked Chad Tracy, while you've got him at No. 8. He possibly had the best offensive production last season of any catcher from the `06 draft class. I've got to believe if he had any defensive skills whatsoever he'd be a B or even a B+ grade. I'd love to see the offensive vs. defensive breakdown grade wise.

by StickRat on Jan 3, 2007 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The thing is

Tracy doesn't seem to stand much of a chance of sticking at catcher, according to the guy who did both the Rangers and the NWL rankings, Aaron Fitt. So I think it's pretty clear that his reasoning for not having Tracy in the top ten is that he sees him as a 1B down the road, rather than overlooking him. I think he does have him in the low teens though (low, meaning close to 10).

I don't know whether he's right about that or whether John has evaluated that, but I think that, at least based on Fitt's evaluation, that's a fair ranking. Davis outhit him, is younger and less experienced, and as the poster below said, probably has more defensive upside at 1B/COF than Tracy.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 3, 2007 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tracy's defense

I agree his defense is poor. He has a pretty good arm, but that's about it. I'm not at all familiar with Chris Davis, but I don't know that it's fair to say he "outhit" Tracy. Yes, Davis put up slightly better numbers (+15 points on his batting average = Davis totaling four more hits than Tracy), but Tracy produced while catching on a regular basis, which should handicap his offensive numbers to be considered at least equal to those of Davis. As for defensive upside, I think both will have to convert to corner outfield, as first base in Texas should be spoken for for a long while. That said, Tracy does not possess a prototypical catcher's build. He's lean and athletic, and has slightly above average speed. Along with his arm, he could prove to be surprisingly adequate defensive outfielder; and the backup/emergency catcher skills won't hurt his big-league worth.

by StickRat on Jan 4, 2007 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Davis

John, I would argue that Chris Davis, being a better hitter and probably a better fielder than Tracy, should probably get a B- grade. He did very well in his first exposure to pro-ball and he's probably the Rangers' best power prospect right now.

by FirebatM3 on Jan 3, 2007 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Travis Metcalf

Out of curiosity, why do you rank Metcalf as a marginal prospect. Not that I disagree, but being a Jayhawk I had hopes he would make the jump. I seem to remember him winning the Ranger's minor leauge player of the year award in 2005.

It seems from this ranking that you do not expect him to make it up the ladder.

by James Quinn on Jan 3, 2007 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs