2007 San Diego Padres Prospects

by John Sickels on Jan 2, 2007 2:25 PM EST in News

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Grade B (love this bat, defense and age preclude B+)
Cesar Carrillo, RHP, Grade B (good if healthy)
Cedric Hunter, OF, B (major sleeper from '06 draft)
Chase Headley, 3B, B (solid hitter but may not have standard 3B power)
Matt Antonelli, 3B, B (good glove, solid bat, but power a question)
Chad Huffman, 2B, B- (can hit, position a question)
Nick Hundley, , C, B- (projects as solid but not spectacular player)
Will Venable, OF, C+ (good tools, developing skills, but old for level)
Kyle Blanks, 1B, C+ (very intriguing power)
Paul McAnulty, OF, C+ (age precludes higher grade but he can hit)
Kyler Burke, OF, C+ (good tools but very, very raw)
David Freese, 3B, C+ (good bat but old for level)
Sean Thompson, LHP, C (good curveball)
Andrew Brown, RHP, C (intriguing power arm from Indians, could help in bullpen)
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, C (nice debut but lack of plus fastball an issue)
Colt Morton, C, C (has power, decent glove, won't hit for average)
Leo Rosales, RHP, C (relief sleeper)
Reyner Contreras, 2B, C (interesting rookie ball player)
Vince Sinisi, OF, C (I'm not wild about him by any means)
Royce Ring, LHP, C (should fit as a LOOGY)

Others of Note: Matt Buschmann, RHP; Matt Bush, SS; Kevin Cameron, RHP; Luis Cruz, SS; Nate Culp, LHP;
Luis Durango, OF; Mike Ekstrom, RHP; Justin Hampson, LHP; Neil Jamison, RHP; Seth Johnston, 2B;
Josh Madden, RHP; Cesar Ramos, LHP; Jared Wells, RHP.

The Padres in One Sentence: This system is quite thin, but good-looking '06 draft class and the recent trade
with Cleveland help a little.

There are some sleeper guys I like here. . .McAnulty, Brown, Rosales in particular. As usual you can scrabble
the Grade C/C+ guys around whoever you like.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Comments

K.K

What does everyone think this kid will do as a starter next year in the majors? Will he get the hang of 3B and still hit?

by ChrisRef19 on Jan 2, 2007 2:36 PM EST reply actions

KK Glove

I would love to hear some more of John's thoughts on Kouzmanoff's defense since that was part of the reason for grading him a B rather than B+.
I haven't been swayed one way or another during the few times I've seen him play. He looked o.k to me... nothing special but also not a liability at third base.

I hear some people talking about his good hands and great hustle on the field, while others talk about him as a slow 1B/DH type in the big leagues.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Jan 2, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

Kouzmanoff in the OF

At one point, albeit briefly, Kouzmanoff was moved to the OF i think. I want to say AFL'03. And i don't think Casey Blake was seen as blocking his path at 3b. But I do remember Cleveland was pretty high on some of their other 3b prospects however - guys like Pat Osborn, Matt Whitney and Corey Smith.

ok! ok! Blue Jays! Blue Jays! Lets! Play! Ball!

by BJ Birdie on Jan 4, 2007 1:27 AM EST up reply actions

Is Corey Smith a lost cause?

at this point, I think I'm the only Corey Smith supporter left....he goes on incredible little streaks, but he's so inconsistent i know...

by daveh33 on Jan 2, 2007 2:42 PM EST reply actions

re

I believe Smith is now part of the White Sox organization

by ScottAZ on Jan 2, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

so he is

d'oh!

by daveh33 on Jan 3, 2007 1:36 AM EST up reply actions

Venable

There are certainly things you can knock Venable for, but I think it's just lazy/convenient to knock him on age. He was primarily a basketball player in college. This isn't some league repeater who's been dedicated to organized ball since he was 18 yet still lacks skills.

"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." - Henny Youngman

by TINSTAAPP on Jan 2, 2007 3:12 PM EST reply actions

context is important

I don't think John's necessarily "knocking" him for his age - it's just something you have to note when looking at his performance.

Anyway, I agree with you that we need to recognize players' history when evaluating whether or not a league level is age-appropriate or not. Venable wasn't just "primarily" a basketball player in college; he skipped entire baseball seasons during his final year in high school and first year at Princeton. So in terms of baseball experience he's probably equivalent to a 20- or 21-year-old. The thing is, Venable is much more mature physically than the teenagers he was playing against in the Midwest League... so you can't completely dismiss his advanced age either.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Jan 2, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

EXACTLY

Will hit .314/.389/.477 in his first full season of baseball; after being new to baseball. Now his upside might be limited by age (which is why I think Sickles' "B" is fair) but he's a seriously underrated prospect at a national level.

-peter

by PeterF on Jan 2, 2007 11:21 PM EST up reply actions

FWIW

Venable also led the Hawaiian Winter league in batting.

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Jan 3, 2007 12:55 AM EST up reply actions

Matt Bush

worst. pick. ever.

by doublestix on Jan 2, 2007 3:37 PM EST reply actions

headley vs kouz

I'm not buying these two guys having the same grade. I realize that everyone with the same grade doesn't have precisely the same exact value. But these guys aren't really even in the same vicinity value wise IMO...

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Jan 2, 2007 3:37 PM EST reply actions

Disagree

Kouz is definitely the better hitter right now, but is questionable defensively, and pretty old. If you look past Headley's raw stats, and realize that his home park was extremely pitcher friendly, his stats look somewhat better. I think John has it right.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 2, 2007 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

Does age matter that much . . .

When your OPS is over 1.050? If you can rake, you can rake. Kouz is exactly the same age and just put up eerily similar numbers to another "old" prospect named Travis Hafner when he was 24/25 in 2002. Hafner walked more, true, but slugged less.
Hafner can't even man first base adequately, but today he is certainly more valuable than almost all of the prospects he was ranked under for so long, especially Carlos Pena (who was once a GRADE A prospect despite never hitting .300 in the minors). Kouz should be a B+ no matter his age or defense. The ability to hit well outweighs everything else in baseball today.

by Shagrat on Jan 2, 2007 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

good post

another late bloomer is Josh Willingham. He was kept in the minors basically because he was trying to improve his catching defense, but they finally brought him up and stuck him in LF. While he's not an elite hitter he's pretty solid. I don't worry too much about his age, he can F'n hit as john loves to say.

by Team Moneyball on Jan 4, 2007 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Headley to Bill Mueller comp

Is it safe to say this is a good comp

by gashousegang on Jan 2, 2007 5:18 PM EST reply actions

Fairly good

but Lake Elsinore masked Headley's moderate power, so I'd say he has more power than Mueller.

I think he could post HR #'s somewhere in the teens yearly, maybe 25 in a peak year. That would give him more power than Mueller, who usually didn't reach double digits.

Other than Headley having somewhat more power, it's a pretty decent comparison.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 2, 2007 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

That HR prognostication

was assuming a neutral park. In Petco, chop a couple of HR's off per year.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 2, 2007 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

Headley to Mueller?

I have read elsewhere that Headley could be the next Sean Burroughs? Great batting eye, no power at a designated power position. What are the numbers for basing a 25 HR a year output?

by gunkdog on Jan 2, 2007 6:22 PM EST reply actions

Headley vs. Burroughs

I suppose he could be the next Burroughs. You never know exactly who is going to go "bust" on you.

I never said he'd hit 25 a year, I said maybe 25 in his peak career HR year. For an average, I'd say more like 15 or so.

Even Bill Mueller hit 19 HR in his peak year, despite never reaching double digits most of the time.

The fact is, though, it isn't true that he has "no" power. He does have below average power for a 3b, that is true, but that is not the same as having "no" power. He probably has power similar to Youkilis, and overall I'd expect a similar career, with Headley providing slightly less offense, but better defense.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 2, 2007 6:33 PM EST up reply actions

Look at Headley's splits...

Home: .261/.368/.365 w/ 4 HR & 13 2B in 241 AB

Road: .328/.416/.510 w/ 8 HR & 20 2B in 241 AB

His numbers will look similar in 2007. San Diego's new AA afiliate, San Antonio is another extreme pitchers' park in hitters' league.

That said, he's no Kouzmanoff. David Freese might be Kouzmanoff reincarnate though...

-peter

by PeterF on Jan 2, 2007 11:17 PM EST up reply actions

I know a lot of people are high on Jared Wells

he was very good in AA but then kinda self-destructed in AAA. But he has more potential as a starter or even a RP than a loogy.

by Havok1517 on Jan 2, 2007 8:24 PM EST reply actions

He did the same thing

...in 2005. Killed Cal League hitters before imploding in the Southern League. 2007 should be telling.

-peter

by PeterF on Jan 2, 2007 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

Killed? Maybe wounded

80 strikeouts in 120 innings isn't so deadly.

by Hurley on Jan 3, 2007 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Where's the love for Cedric Hunter?

.365/.467/.469 as a 18 year old with 42 BB & only 22 SO...

Wow!

-peter

by PeterF on Jan 2, 2007 11:24 PM EST reply actions

A "B" isn't hate

An ISO of 104 for a future corner OF knocks off some points.

If he can play center the power wouldn't be a concern. It's not going to get any easier to play center in Petco by the time he's ready.

by Hurley on Jan 3, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry...

Revised post:

"Where's the love for Cedric Hunter among posters?"

Cedric will get plenty of practice for Petco's CF in Lake Elsinore...

-peter

by PeterF on Jan 3, 2007 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

ISO

ISO is an overrated stat. If you're getting on base over 47% of the time...

-peter

by PeterF on Jan 3, 2007 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

Stats

If you're going to live by the stat line, you've got to take the good with the less-good. His ISO suggests that the general scouting feelings about his power were based in something real.

A high OBP quality defender will play in a corner, but its obviously not as good as a high OBP quality defender with more power.

by Hurley on Jan 3, 2007 7:58 PM EST up reply actions

Thoughts on Kouz and Smith!

Hello everyone, Happy New Year!

Regarding Kouz, from what I've heard and seen, he has soft hands and can handle what he can get to, but his range is limited - that was the main reason why Marte was considered the better defensive 3B, because he had considerably better range than Kouz. However, Kouz's hands and arm are capable of handling 3B.

As for Corey Smith, I'll be very surprised if he ever makes it to the Majors, outside of maybe a brief cup of coffee. He's just too inconsistent and doesn't hit for a high enough BA, enough power, or have good enough knowledge of the strike zone to really be more than a marginal backup in the Majors, at best. And his defense, from the stats I could find at TheBaseballCube, isn't exactly stellar either.

Combine that with the fact that he will be 25 this April, and I think his chances of playing in the Majors, outside of perhaps a very brief cup of coffee, are slim to none.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jan 3, 2007 12:15 AM EST reply actions

My two cents

From what I have seen, I am with John on the B for Kouz. I love his bat, though I do wonder about HR power, especially in Petco.

As for his defense, Indiansfan has seen him more than I have, and obviously the Padres saw enough to think he could handle 3B, but I'm not so sure. Maybe Kouzmanoff just had a bad few days when I saw him, but his hands weren't all that soft. He misplayed a couple of balls, though at least one was a tough in-between play. I do want to see how he does in 2007, because I think with time and effort (and by all reports, he's a guy who's going to put in both), I think he will be fine ultimately at 3B. But until we know, a little caution seems like the right move, thus the B.

In some ways, I think Kouzmanoff could develop into what the Padres thought they had in Sean Burroughs. Excellent contact hitter with above-average XBH potential, 20 HR power, and adequate defense.

by Yakker on Jan 3, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Kouzmann v Burroughs

Not many people doubt Kouzmanoff has a lot more power than Sean. 20HR was often projected as SB's upper limit, and in retrospect that was wishful. Kouz's power ceiling is higher, even in Petco. It might start playing more neutral as the downtown building continues and knocks down some of the wind.

Burroughs was reputed at times to be an excellent defender, and not many have said that about The Kouz.

by Hurley on Jan 3, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

Kouz

Yeah, I know the projections. And I'll defer to you about the Petco effect diminshing over time, as I don't know much at all about San Diego's downtown skyline. But I think KK's line drive swing will generate more 2Bs and 3Bs than HRs than people expect.

by Yakker on Jan 4, 2007 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

Sad Pads fan

One of the three worst systems in the majors. The good news is that they have won two straight division titles. If we can keep piecing playoff teams together great, but with sky rocketing salaries, the system has to be improved or its back to being the Padres we all grew up with.

by Jeremy1Esq on Jan 3, 2007 8:02 PM EST reply actions