Community Projection: Scott Thorman

by John Sickels on Jan 19, 2007 1:21 PM EST in News Comment 53 comments

For our first 2007 Community Projection, we will do Scott Thorman of the Atlanta Braves. Project the following statistics:

Games
At-Bats
Hits
Batting Average
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
K
SB

Early next week I will collate all entries and show the results. Remember to try and take this seriously, but don't just cut-and-paste from someone else's projection system. The background for the Community Projections can be found in this post from a couple of years ago called Spaghetti baseball.

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Here it goes

Games 120
At-Bats 370
Hits 101
Batting Average .274
2B 22
3B 1
HR 21
RBI 60
BB 40
K 63
SB 2

This is if he is platooning with Craig Wilson

by was385 on Jan 19, 2007 1:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

we have a close projection

I think you ABs might be a little low though. Only 3 a game?

by Metty5 on Jan 19, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Platooning

That means in quite a few games he will have one ab as a pinch hitter or will be removed early for Craig Wilson if there is a lefty.

by was385 on Jan 19, 2007 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If there is a lefty...

He wouldn't start that wouldn't go into a calculation of his Games played(Started) per AB. If he pitch hit then he would only get more ABS. I don't consider a pitching hitting role as Games played in a projection like this.

by Metty5 on Jan 19, 2007 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Im just saying

This is how many ABs I expect him to get and that is why it is lower than you expected per game

by was385 on Jan 19, 2007 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games: 140
AB: 496
H: 132
AVG: .260
2B: 18
3B: 0
HR: 16
RBI: 68
BB: 44
K: 89
SB: 4

by Gudy2Shoes on Jan 19, 2007 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

I think the Braves will regret moving LaRoche...

G 125
At-Bats 350
Hits 82
Batting Average .234
2B 21
3B 0
HR 12
RBI 52
BB 22
K 80
SB 1

by RogoRooter on Jan 19, 2007 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thor

G: 130
AB: 468
H: 120
AVG: .256
2B : 18
3B: 0
HR: 19
RBI: 72
BB: 32
K: 95
SB: 2

by twill on Jan 19, 2007 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Games: 130
AB: 432
H: 131
AVG: .275
2B: 20
3B: 0
HR: 19
RBI: 72
BB: 44
K: 93
SB: 2

by ChrisRef19 on Jan 19, 2007 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thor

G: 75
AB: 275
H: 70
AVG: .260
2B: 10
3B: 0
HR: 12
RBI: 42
BB: 18
K: 53
SB: 0

by Havok1517 on Jan 19, 2007 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think Wilson

earns the fulltime 1B job .

by Havok1517 on Jan 20, 2007 3:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

by ByANose on Jan 20, 2007 7:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wilson's bat > Thorman's bat

I can see Wilson winning the 1B job even though his D sucks, but Thorman will still get a good 350 AB's somewhere even if that happens.

Games 115
At-Bats 350
Hits 90
Batting Average .255
2B 20
3B 1
HR 16
RBI 50
BB 30
K 80
SB 2

by Grid on Jan 20, 2007 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thorman Projection

Games: 120
At-Bats: 415
Hits: 115
Batting Average: 277
2B: 20
3B: 2
HR: 15
RBI: 62
BB: 31
K: 77
SB: 2

by Metty5 on Jan 19, 2007 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here goes

Games 125
At-Bats 425
Hits 111
Batting Average .261
2B 22
3B 2
HR 14
RBI 58
BB 30
K 85
SB 3

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 19, 2007 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

These Projections

All look very similar other than some BA, HR fluctuation. His K/BB rates are pretty consistent with us a cross the board.

by Metty5 on Jan 19, 2007 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games 115
At-Bats 355
Hits 89
Batting Average .251
2B 17
3B 1
HR 14
RBI 57
BB 28
K 69
SB 2

by doug frobel on Jan 19, 2007 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games 104
At-Bats 300
Hits 79
Batting Average 263
2B 10
3B 1
HR 7
RBI 49
BB 31
K 69
SB 2

by sagecoll on Jan 19, 2007 4:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thor

Games: 109
At-Bats: 348
Hits: 88
Batting Average: .253
2B: 18
3B: 0
HR: 14
RBI: 51
BB: 24
K: 60
SB: 1

by Diggity Dino on Jan 19, 2007 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games: 140
AB: 420
H: 107
BA: .255
2b: 25
3B: 1
HR: 15
RBI: 55
BB: 20
K: 85
SB: 3

by mark g on Jan 19, 2007 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just a thought

Thorman plays both LF/1B, and the Braves are weak at LF. IMO His offense is better than Langerhans and Diaz. So, he could add a few games at LF, especially if the other two options don't play well.

by omambiyick on Jan 19, 2007 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games (played in): 140
At-Bats: 450
Hits: 117
Batting Average: .282
2B: 26
3B: 1
HR: 18
RBI: 65
BB: 35
K: 71
SB: 4

by mraver on Jan 19, 2007 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thorson

Games 95
At-Bats 350
Hits 98
BA .280
2B 16
3B 1
HR 12
RBI 57
BB 33
K 64
SB 1

Cub Fan - Bud Man

by Orangeman94 on Jan 19, 2007 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Underrated

Must we forget how many of us felt about Adam LaRoche offensively before last year

Games 131
At-Bats 443
Hits 121
Batting Average .273
2B 18
3B 0
HR 24
RBI 75
BB 51
K 86
SB 1

by dlpme77 on Jan 19, 2007 7:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hammer Time

Games 132
At-Bats 462
Hits 122
Batting Average .264
2B 25
3B 2
HR 16
RBI 66
BB 38
K 85
SB 2

by Joy in Melville on Jan 19, 2007 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If he bats 7th 8th mostly

He could flip back and forth with McCann depending on who's hot

Games 135
At-Bats 410
Hits 122
Batting Average .270
2B 29
3B 2
HR 24
RBI 70
BB 38
K 72
SB 2

by themurph on Jan 19, 2007 11:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

McCann will most likely bat 5th...

I mean, he's arguably the best hitter on the team. No reason to put him at the bottom of the lineup.

by mraver on Jan 20, 2007 8:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2007 Community Projection - Scott Thorman

Games 100
At Bats 289
Hits 72
2B 18
3B 0
HR 12
RBI 43
BB 24
SO 60
SB 1

by texleague on Jan 19, 2007 11:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thor

Games 135
At-Bats 410
Hits 110
Batting Average .270
2B 25
3B 1
HR 19
RBI 66
BB 43
K 68
SB 2

I've been a big fan of his for a few years now

by yondaime4 on Jan 20, 2007 2:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

my projection

I like the idea of community projections...

Games : 142
At-Bats: 441
Hits : 120
Batting Average: .273
2B : 33
3B : 1
HR : 15
RBI: 70
BB : 39
K : 92
SB : 3

by philj on Jan 20, 2007 6:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I rated him this high because...

He got a taste of the majors last year which will lower his learning curve. In addition, he will be 25 years old in 2007 which will combine to make the MLB transition easier for him.

by philj on Jan 20, 2007 7:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

T

113 Games
317 At-Bats
85 Hits
.268 Batting Average
19 2B
2 3B
10 HR
60 RBI
31 BB
63 K
3 SB

not high on him for this year, could be wrong. I think he gets relagated to a fair amount of PH ala Betemit for awhile during the year. His minor track record indicates a year lag at a league before he catches up and his brief stint last year (caught a couple of games on TV) doesn't make me optimistic for 07. Maybe 08 though.

by roaddog on Jan 20, 2007 10:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

not a believer

90 games
287 AB
75 hits
.261 avg
14 2B
1 3B
11 HR
54 RBI
30 BB
54 K
1 SB

Dan Johnson was a much better AAAA player, if you ask me.

by limozeen on Jan 20, 2007 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

111 games
295 AB
71 Hits
.241 Average
18 2B
0 3B
8 HR
45 RBI
23 BB
61 K
0 SB

He will be over-matched in 2007

by CubsFan on Jan 20, 2007 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games: 133
At-Bats: 441
Hits: 126
Batting Average: .286
2B: 24
3B: 1
HR: 19
RBI: 70
BB: 45
K: 75
SB: 3

by daullaz on Jan 20, 2007 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My Guess

Games: 141
At-Bats: 440
Hits: 125
Batting Average: .284
2B: 28
3B: 1
HR: 20
RBI: 84
BB: 50
K: 83
SB: 4

by kienast on Jan 20, 2007 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fuggetaboutit, Thorman

Games: 125
At-Bats: 385
Hits: 102
Batting Average: .265
2B: 18
3B: 1
HR: 14
RBI: 69
BB: 46
K: 77
SB: 3

by yanksfan6129 on Jan 20, 2007 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games - 120
At-Bats - 365
Hits - 97
Batting Average - .265
2B - 21
3B - 0
HR - 13
RBI - 59
BB - 44
K - 119
SB - 2

by acr on Jan 20, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman Projection

Games - 147
At-Bats - 493
Hits - 144
Batting Average - .292
2B - 23
3B - 0
HR - 26
RBI - 87
BB - 48
K - 117
SB - 2

by GripDog on Jan 20, 2007 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

Games: 132
AB: 452
Hits: 120
Avg: .265
2B: 24
3B: 1
HR: 19
RBI: 72
BB: 35
K: 75
SB: 3

by Alphonse on Jan 20, 2007 9:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Therman

G: 100
AB: 350
H: 85
AVG: .243
2B: 15
3B: 0
HR: 12
RBI: 58
BB: 30
K: 85
SB: 1

by yoda1 on Jan 21, 2007 12:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

G: 119
AB: 437
H: 116
AVG: .267
2B: 27
3B: 1
HR: 10
RBI: 69
BB: 42
K: 97
SB: 0

by doublestix on Jan 21, 2007 3:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

After an initial adjustment period struggle, Thor has hit pitching at every level quite well. I don't see why people think he's a AAAA player.

Games: 135
AB: 450
Hits: 125
Avg: .276
2B: 29
3B: 1
HR: 19
RBI: 72
BB: 35
K: 125
SB: 1

by The Origenist on Jan 21, 2007 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

and they are already saying he's the man in Atlanta. Wilson's role isn't going to be significant/won't steal that many AB's from Thor. Thor is pretty well liked in Atlanta and I think they will give him every chance to be the everyday guy. They've shown they aren't afraid to give young guys a shot to develop at the big league level.

I ate a Grand Slam @ Denny's yesterday... pooped out a 2 run double today.

by slurve on Jan 21, 2007 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2 million dollars

and a strategic trade & sign says differently.

by Havok1517 on Jan 21, 2007 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mr. Schuerholz

says differently actually...

From Sportsline:

Braves GM John Schuerholz said Scott Thorman is expected to be the starting first baseman, even though Craig Wilson is a right-handed hitter who seemed to be a natural fit in a platoon with the left-handed hitting Thorman. "I don't suspect that will happen," Schuerholz said. "We believe it's time for another young player to matriculate, if you will, to everyday responsibility, and we believe he can do the job as an everyday player. Craig Wilson can also play first base, and I'm sure (manager) Bobby (Cox) will give him the opportunity to do that in certain situations, but Scotty Thorman will be our first baseman. He is going to be a real productive offensive player and a more than adequate defensive player."

I ate a Grand Slam @ Denny's yesterday... pooped out a 2 run double today.

by slurve on Jan 21, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you will?

Is John Schuerholz really Dusty Rhodes?

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 21, 2007 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

XBH%

I'm really curious how many people have Thorman with an XBH% of 40% and up, when he averaged 36.5% XBH% in the minors. A couple of guys have him at nearly 50% XBH's. Seems a bit unrealistic to me, especially in a park that is league average or worse for XBH's.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Jan 21, 2007 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Laroche

If you look at Adam Laroche in the Minors, his XBH% was 33.1%. In the Majors, his XBH% is 45.5%.

I'm not saying he is going to put up the same numbers as Laroche, just pointing out that Thorman's XBH% can improve when he reaches the majors.

by philj on Jan 23, 2007 4:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thorman

G: 120
AB: 390
H: 99
AVG: .254
2B: 20
3B: 0
HR: 12
RBI: 57
BB: 37
K: 80
SB: 1

I expect ups and downs and him to not quite find his HR stroke in his first season, but they'll find themselves sticking with him most of the time.
This works out to about a .254/.319/.450 line, which isn't all that terrible for a rookie and hints at some power potential.

by mcq fesijiba on Jan 21, 2007 7:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs