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Now it can be told: my slurve list

I can now safely post my top 50 list that I sent to slurve.  Actually, I am going to modify it wholesale, based on additional thinkage.  The numbers in parentheses reflect the original list i sent to slurve.

  1. (1.) Daisuke Matsuzaka

  2. (3.) Tim Lincecum
  3. (2.) Delmon Young
  4. (5.) Alex Gordon
  5. (9.) Chris Young
  6. (6.) Philip Hughes
  7. (4.) Billy Butler
  8. (13.) Jay Bruce
  9. (7.) Homer Bailey
  10. (10.) Justin Upton
  11. (11.) Evan Longoria
  12. (21.) Andrew McCutchen
  13. (16.) Ryan Braun
  14. (8.) Brandon Wood
  15. (12.) Elijah Dukes
  16. (17.) Mike Pelfrey
  17. (22.) Reid Brignac
  18. (19.) Yovani Gallardo
  19. (14.) Andrew Miller
  20. (23.) Adam Miller
  21. (24.) Cameron Maybin
  22. (26.) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
  23. (28.) Troy Tulowitzki
  24. (18.) Andy LaRoche
  25. (15.) Adam Jones
  26. (34.) Clayton Kershaw
  27. (25.) Nick Adenhart
  28. (27.) James Loney
  29. (29.) Matt Garza
  30. (30.) Fernando Martinez
  31. (31.) Jose Tabata
  32. (32.) Carlos Gonzalez
  33. (40.) Luke Hochevar
  34. (35.) Colby Rasmus
  35. (47.) Carlos Gomez
  36. (20.) Scott Elbert
  37. (--.) Franklin Morales
  38. (41.) Chris Iannetta
  39. (44.) Joey Votto
  40. (43.) Hunter Pence
  41. (33.) Felix Pie
  42. (36.) Adam Lind
  43. (42.) Brandon Erbe
  44. (--.) Dellin Betances
  45. (--.) Chuck Lofgren
  46. (37.) Jason Hirsh
  47. (--.) Hank Conger
  48. (45.) Bill Rowell
  49. (50.) Jeff Clement
(dropped)
--. (49.) Jeff Niemann
--. (38.) Brad Lincoln
--. (39.) Travis Snider
--. (46.) Ryan Sweeney
--. (48.) Akinori Iwamura

Now I'm dropping my balls on the chopping block in a couple of places here but i've heard they have a new ball-chopping based reality show over in Japan and it's getting fantastic ratings in most of Japan and also for some reason via satellite in Langley, Virginia, and in specific parts of Cuba.   The list will no doubt be different again tomorrow.   Discuss.  

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Big Fan
I really like the list so i'll do a break down of what i like and don't.

Love:
Tim Lincecum so high. I think he is overlooked by the community's list.
Cameron Maybin's drop in this list compared to others.
Longoria. Period. He is going to be Gordon soon if he remains at 3rd.

Like:
My homerism and how you treated the Mets so well with Pelfrey at 16, Gomez at 35 and Martinez 1 before Tabata at 30 :-D
LaRoche's Drop
Dellin Betances addition, but how do people think he compares to Joba?

Dislike:
Garza is such a question mark in my mind. I don't think he can be a 1 or 2, but I am fairly certain he will have success. SO WHERE DO I PUT HIM? at 29 for a player with some successful IP at the MLB level is a little to low for me however.
Gallardo is a little low too IMO, think Upton should be lower till he has a breakout season.
Ryan Braun and McCutchen need to be moved back a tad.

Hate:
Saltalamacchia at 22. I think he was overlooked by the community as well. He dropped further than i thought, but at the same time I wasn't expecting to be this high on anyones list after a slip the past season.

Good List, some balls could have been chopped off, but i think its pretty solid so don't worry. Don't see too many problems but i also only glanced.

by JD Sussman on Jan 17, 2007 6:25 AM EST reply actions  

Silly me
HATE:
You posted this after Dukes was arrested again so I can't cut you slack at 15. I don't want to get into his arrest on this diary but I don't think it was a HUGE deal. He has star ability and i think he will make it to the show. But he has a tendency to misbehave and there is a chance he gets to Jail before his MLB debut. He should be in the 35-45 because of this. No other player other than a DRay has that kind of hindrance.

by JD Sussman on Jan 17, 2007 6:29 AM EST up reply actions  

thoughts
Lincecum: Balls on the chopping block!  But the more I read, the more I believe it: star out of the box.

Maybin: I need more line drives.

Longoria: I was high on him, then I soured on him, now I'm coming back around.  It's been a wild ride.  A wild ride.

Mets:

Pelfrey: Like John, I think Pelfrey's breaking ball problems are overrated and he'll figure something out.  And people don't appreciate his fastball enough.  It's not just about speed, it's a quality fastball in every respect.  That might almost be enough to make him an ace by itself.  

Gomez: Right now Gomez is a tools player who's displaying no particular power, no particular discipline and no particular contact ability.  I normally hate this kind of player.  And yet, strangely, as a sorority girl drawn to the scorpion bowl, I love him.  It's probably the scouts using mind control on me again, but I have a feeling.  I think it's because he got jumped a level, was terrible, and then (apparently) adapted.  I love to see adjustments made.  Best possible sign in a player.  If he has those tools, plus the ability to adapt and develop his skills, he could be, I don't know, Carl Crawford or something.  Or, maybe the whole thing is a mirage.  Who am I.

Martinez vs. Tabata: Really, I have no idea.  They're a unit right now.  

LaRoche: I think he's still toting some overrate from the "40-homer" tag he got a couple years ago.  I'm not buying that.  He'll be solid.  

Betances: If Kershaw can be in the 20s, I don't see why Betances can't be 44.  Same ridiculous ceiling.  And again, they say, he came into pro ball and started making huge adjustments right away.  Smart + adjustments + 6'9" + 97 mph at 18 = on my list.  Name me somebody else like that.  There is nobody.

Garza: Major league innings, I don't really care.  Long-term, I see him as a pitcher, but not a special pitcher.

Gallardo: I like him.  I don't know.  Pitchers.  They float around.  You look at a BA top 100 from 8 years ago, you see all the hitters who are starring in the league now and a bunch of pitcher names that you don't even recognize.  It makes you want to take all of the pitchers off your list, if you have one.  Gallardo looks awesome.  

Upton: I would have him even higher, actually, but after scoping him on the web I have one or two little concerns about his swing.  I know nothing about swings; these are other people's expert concerns which I have co-opted as my own for the time being.  If they prove baseless I will disavow all knowledge and re-rank.  Some tweaks will probably turn him into Griffey.

Braun & McCutchen: My list is heavily biased towards guys that can Just Hit.  Braun and McCutchen can Just Hit, so they are high on my list.  Respectfully, I am going to leave them where they are.

Saltalamacchia: same principle.  Despite the off year, I believe that Saltalamacchia can Just Hit.  I don't think the off year had anything to do with his ability.  I'm not sure exactly what it did have to do with.  But I don't think it was that.  And then he's a catcher.  So, good.

Dukes: You are all going to be sorry.  Or I am.  Or possibly both.  

by wily mo on Jan 17, 2007 7:01 AM EST up reply actions  

carlos gomez
PECOTA seems to like him too. Isn't it nice when computers and scouts agree?

by jeck on Jan 17, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

If you don't mind
What was his PECOTA comparisons?

by JD Sussman on Jan 17, 2007 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

comps
Baldelli, Milledge, Frank Diaz, Hanley Ramirez

by jeck on Jan 17, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

intresting
good comps, which would you say is most accurate?

by JD Sussman on Jan 17, 2007 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

hmm
Like I mentioned before, I don't think Matsuzaka and the rest are apples to apples because of age, history, and mainly, salary.  The value of the rest to their teams will be based on 5 or 6 years of controllability, 2 or 3 at league minimum and 3 in arby, in addition to their draft bonuses.  Matsuzaka essentially signed a free agent contract.  I believe this makes him fundamentally different and unable to be rated on the same scale.  But it's your choice.

Lincecum has great stuff, but he's never been able to get that BB/9 into elite status.  I don't doubt that he can make a big splash in the bigs this year, but when I think of pitchers that will have long, productive careers, there are three or four guys I'd rather have.  Yes, body type is part of this too, but let's not revisit that.

I think you're selling Upton short, but he's still top 10 so it's not a huge quibble.

Guys I think you have too high: Lincecum, Braun, Dukes, Pelfrey, Adam Miller, Adenhart, Loney, Conger.

Guys I think you have too low: Upton, LaRoche, Garza, Tulowitzki, Rasmus

by limozeen on Jan 17, 2007 6:56 AM EST reply actions  

apples to boba
Salary: I'm not rating their value to their controlling team.  I'm rating the value of their career.  After 6 years, that could be anybody.  But we've been through this several times and you  seem disinclined to listen to reason, so I'll turn the radio dial to a frequency we both can hear.

Lincecum: I don't think the walks matter.  We'll see.

Adam Miller too high: You might be right.  He's such a good pitcher.  But I hate guys who have "recovered" from injuries, especially if it's not just TJ but something they "rehabbed".

Adenhart too high: Again, maybe.  But I feel like he's got more.  If he has another level to reach in his gradual TJ comeback - they say the second year is all the way back.  This was the first.  Before the injury he was rated up with Bailey.  

Loney too high: Just Hit.  I think he's better than people realize.

Conger too high: I've got swing analysts loving him over on BTF, and I've got all kinds of scouts saying they just got a feeling.  Plus he's Korean.  I'm white, but I like Korean baseball players anyway.  I grew up in Torrance.

Tulowitzki too low: You're probably right.  I go back and forth on him.  I'm not quite sure yet if he can Just Hit or not, is the major problem.  

Rasmus too low: Interesting.  Most people would say he's too high, I would have thought.  

by wily mo on Jan 17, 2007 7:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Also
I don't want to reiterate my argument on Matsuzaka, save to say that we both have our reasons and I think they're both legit.

I forgot to say the ones I thought you nailed: Maybin, Jones, Martinez, Tabata, Gonzalez, Pie

Basically I thought you did a good job with toolsy OFs.  Save maybe Rasmus, who I like more than anyone it seems.

by limozeen on Jan 17, 2007 7:28 AM EST up reply actions  

i like how you went for broke with lincecum
and where you have hirsh....you're missing the boat on sweeney...and i have no idea why you put braun in front of Wood, and Pelfrey in front of Brignac...also, Im not the biggest Tulo fan, but I think he belongs on everyone's Top 15....I dont agree with most of it, but its an interesting list for sure.

by daveh33 on Jan 17, 2007 6:58 AM EST reply actions  

Braun > Wood ?
Actually, I see how the case could be made that Braun is a better prospect than Wood. Braun certainly doesn't have the red flag of swinging and missing in nearly 30% of his plate appearances like Wood does. And their power production at the double-A level was comparable.

The thing is, Braun also has less of a professional track record than Wood so it's a bit risky putting him ahead of Wood at this point.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Jan 17, 2007 7:32 AM EST up reply actions  

yes, yes
Wood's approach, the strikeouts... Just Hit.  It is a terrible risk for me to take, though.  You're right about that.  If Wood does turn out better than Braun in the end, I'll be deported back to the Seychelles and have to go back to work at the Puma factory.

by wily mo on Jan 17, 2007 7:36 AM EST reply actions  

Lincecum
Could make you look great, which I think he probably will.  But I don't think anyone could call him the 2nd best prospect in baseball after 30 innings.

Also, and I think this is probably just me, but I think Longoria is too high.  But he's in the top 15 for pretty much everyone so I think I'm in the minority on that one.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jan 17, 2007 7:41 AM EST reply actions  

well
If you can say after 30 innings that you think he's probably going to make me look great, isn't that basically the same thing?  

by wily mo on Jan 17, 2007 7:56 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess
I guess, but I guess what I'm saying is that 'probably great' isn't #2 IMO.  The #2 prospect in baseball should be someone you KNOW is going to be great.  But again, pretty fine line.
Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jan 17, 2007 8:22 AM EST up reply actions  

know
Well, then, there is no #2 prospect in baseball.  I will adjust my list to make Lincecum #3, and move everyone else down one.  Too bad for Niemann, I guess.  

by wily mo on Jan 17, 2007 8:27 AM EST up reply actions  

To clarify
I'm not hating, as you seem to be getting offended.  I just thought he was a few slots too high.  I respect you for having the balls to put him up there, I just disagreed with the placement thats all.
Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jan 18, 2007 3:36 AM EST up reply actions  

no
i'm not offended, i'm just sort of crazy.  really just making a point, though - there's no such thing as "sure" with these guys.  taking into account that he's a pitcher, i'm just as sure - more sure - that lincecum will be a star as i am gordon or delmon.  

by wily mo on Jan 18, 2007 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

based on this kind of thinking
Brignac is my #1 prospect....since I like him better than Gordon, Delmon, et al , and have a gut that he's headed for greatness...Briggy at #1 and Homer at #2....

by daveh33 on Jan 17, 2007 8:30 AM EST up reply actions  

kind of thinking
Based on what kind of thinking?  Not-the-same-as-everyone-else's kind of thinking?  Go for it, man.  If you truly like Brignac better than Delmon, absolutely put him there.  

by wily mo on Jan 17, 2007 8:36 AM EST up reply actions  

the
this-list-could-make-me-look-great kinda thinking...by putting certain 'gut-feeling' kinda guys ahead of certain other 'sure-thing' guys like gordon...mine was kinda like that but not as extreme as yours....

by daveh33 on Jan 17, 2007 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Unless I'm missing something
and I didn't completely read all of the follow up posts, but you don't have #2 on this list, unless that was done to show how much more you like Matsu than anyone else.

by williethekid20 on Jan 17, 2007 10:07 AM EST reply actions  

Garza was Minor League Pitcher of the Year
And with good reason.  He blew through 3 levels with the following numbers:

10.19 K/9
.181/.242/.284 against
2.12 BB/9
0.40 HR/9
5.77 H/9

Most of that was against AA/AAA competition.  His numbers from his 50 innings in the bigs don't look as pretty but I saw most of his starts.  He got REALLY squeezed in 3 of the 9 starts.  The game against the Yankees (at NY) was a joke.  He was working with a 12 inch plate.  

Compare those numbers to Liriano's in 2005:

10.95 K/9
6.77 H/9
2.68 BB/9

I wouldn't bump him ahead of Lincecum, but remember that Garza was just 22 last year too - and he jumped from A ball to the bigs.  To me, that puts him somewhere in the top 10 or 15.  

I'd easily rank him ahead of:

Young
Bruce
Dukes
Pelfrey
Adenhart
Kershaw
A. Jones
Salty
Brignac
Adam Miller
McCutchen

by alskntwnsfn on Jan 17, 2007 1:08 PM EST reply actions  

List
I never sent one in but here is a take on how I see them.
  1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
  2. Alex Gordon
  3. Delmon Young
  4. Billy Butler
  5. Justin Upton
  6. Brandon Wood
  7. Tim Lincecum
  8. Chris Young
  9. Philip Hughes
10 Jay Bruce
11 Adam Miller
12 Homer Bailey
13 Evan Longoria
14 Andrew McCutchen
15 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
16 Ryan Braun
17 Elijah Dukes
18 Reid Brignac
19 Hunter Pence
20 Mike Pelfrey
21 Yovani Gallardo
22 Andrew Miller
23 Cameron Maybin
24 Troy Tulowitzki
25 Andy LaRoche
26 Matt Garza
27 Adam Lind
28 Nick Adenhart
29 James Loney
30 Fernando Martinez
31 Clayton Kershaw
32 Jose Tabata
33 Adam Jones
34 Carlos Gonzalez
35 Luke Hochevar
Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Jan 17, 2007 2:48 PM EST reply actions  

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