Cal Ripken Prospect Retro

by John Sickels on Jan 14, 2007 1:05 PM EST in News Comment 7 comments

Cal Ripken Prospect Retro
Calvin Edwin Ripken Jr. was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the second round in 1978, out of high school in Aberdeen, Maryland. Assigned to Bluefield in the Appalachian League, he didn't show much in his pro debut, hitting .263/.335/.301. . .he controlled the strike zone well and showed defensive skills, but he hit for zero power. Nowadays I'd probably give a similar player a Grade B or B-, based on their draft position more than anything.
Ripken moved up to the Florida State League in 1979, hitting .303/.360/.417 for Miami. There were some strong signs here: the FSL is a big jump from the Appy League. He was just 19 years old, and he boosted his production across the board. Although he hit just five homers, he knocked 28 doubles and added 116 points to his slugging percentage compared to rookie ball. I'd have no problem raising his grade to B+ based on this kind of progress.
Promoted to Double-A in 1980, he hit .276/.373/.492 for Charlotte in the Southern League, with 28 doubles, 25 homers, and 77 walks at age 20. A similar player today would get a Grade A-, or maybe even a straight Grade A, given the age/competition factor and his continued power development.
Ripken moved up to Rochester in the International League in 1981 and posted similar numbers: .288/.385/.535 with 23 homers and 66 walks. Although he hit just .128 in a 23-game trial with the Orioles, he was clearly one of the best prospects in the game, again rating at a Grade A- or Grade A. About the only problem here was that it was unclear if he was going to be a shortstop or a third baseman in the major leagues. A lot of scouts felt that he'd eventually lose too much range to play shortstop in the long run.
Ripken played 160 games for the Orioles in 1982, hitting .263/.317/.475 with 28 homers and earning the American League Rookie of the Year award. At the time, I remember being rather annoyed with this as a Twins fan, since Twins rookie Kent Hrbek had hit .301/.363/.485, outpacing Ripken in all of the major hitting categories except home runs. However, at the time I didn't account for Ripken's superior defensive value, plus the fact that he was already showing more durability than Hrbek.
You know the rest of the story for Ripken: incredible durability, two MVP awards, two gold gloves at shortstop, Hall of Fame. Was this predictable based on his minor league record? His major league performance was very much in line with what he showed in the minors, at least once he reached Double-A. His power development was very impressive, his SLGs going from .301 to .417 to .492 to .535 in his four year minor league career. You couldn't predict the supreme durability, of course, but the type of player he became was predicted by his minor league record.

0 recs | Comment 7 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Rip is probably one of the more interesting..

..anamolies in baseball in how uncannily consistent and predictable he is...usually, with minor league projections, you have enough variance between minor league record and future ML performance that you treat major league projections as a rough sketch of what the player can eventually become...and, between all of the fluke years, surprising declines, health, surprising spikes players can go through, you rarely see players become EXACTLY what you expect them to be...

...Cal Ripken was predicted to be a .280s, 20-25 HR type of defensively inclined SS, and he turns out to be exactly that with uncanny consistency for ~20 years...in fact, even assuming good players will have off and career years from time to time, it is pretty eery to see how his career lines read...EVERY single year is nearly identical!...

...on a side note, in a recent Baltimore Sun article it mentioned that if Cal sat out against a handful of tough bad matchups per year in his career, it probably would have scratched off a 4-for-40 stretch per year and kept him fresher, improving his AVG by some points and power by 3-4 more HRs...I'm curious to hear what folks here might think about that and how it relates to the Streak?...

by basemonkey on Jan 14, 2007 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Slugging Shortstops

My recollection may be poor, but to me, Ripken was the first of the slugging shortstops. Sure, Ernie Banks preceded him, but by the time I was old enough to follow baseball, Banks had moved to 1B. Between Banks and Ripken, all the arguments about who was the best SS in the game revolved around guys like Dave Concepcion and Bill Russell. Ripken really revolutionized the position. I mean, before Ripken, whoever heard of a SS hitting 430 career HR's while playing SS for the vast majority of his career? Nowadays, since we've seen Derek Jeter and ARod, it's not such a novelty, but Ripken was a true pioneer in my mind. He was much, much more than just an ironman.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 14, 2007 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Streak

I think Ripken would have been better without his streak. He always had a worse second half of the year, which I believe was caused by fatigue.

by royalsfan7 on Jan 14, 2007 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

1st half v. 2nd half

Cal's career OPS splits:

1st half: .799
2nd half: .775

2nd half is lower, but it's pretty darn close. Close enough that it may have been worth it to have him out there every game even if it meant a slight deterioration. I guess the next question would be - did his defense suffer as the season went on because of the streak?

by Dingbat Charlie on Jan 14, 2007 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've always wondered that

Career lines:
first half: .278/.345/.454
second half: .273/.335/.440

Not a huge difference, but still better in the first half, but if you look closer at his career lines by month:
April/March: .274/.344/.446
May: .263/.340/.453
June: .294/.352/.460
July: .286/.354/.466
August: .275/.333/.433
Sept/Oct: .262/.320/.428

He definitely did seem to tail off at the end of the year. Was it due to fatigue or just a coincidence? Who knows? I seriously doubt the Orioles or Ripken would do anything differently if they could do it over again.

I'm not exactly a Ripken fan for whatever reason, but he would have my vote for the hall of fame without question.

by mcq fesijiba on Jan 14, 2007 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sept.

I think hitting stats tail off in September for MLB as a whole. Cold weather is not good for scoring runs usually.

I doubt he would have hit more HR's with days off, but his BA should have been higher, especialy if his days off were chosen wisely.

by elricsi on Jan 14, 2007 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HOF Numbers are there but...

...Ripken is one of those special types of players where context is everything...10-15 years from now when we start hearing HOF talk for guys like maybe AROD, Jeter, etc, etc, Ripken's numbers may eventually be misunderstood...by then, shortstop may be a positon where we see several league MVPs play...and the context of the Streak and his role as revolutionizing the SS position may be skewed over time...

...I think it's important to keep an understanding of the context of Ripken and his era...his numbers are HOF caliber but they aren't gaudy by 90s standards and not by the standards of the biggest hitters of all-time...his numbers alone do not demonstrate what a large figure he is in baseball history...it will be interesting to see if this fact gets lost or emphasized as time goes on...

by basemonkey on Jan 14, 2007 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs