Still premature to say McCann is just as good as Mauer?

by bravitos5122 on Sep 24, 2006 11:08 PM EDT Comment 58 comments

McCann 23 homers 88 rbis .333/.391/.570

Mauer 12 homers 81 rbis .347/.429/.502

We had this debate around midseason and some suggested McCann was just as good as Mauer. A lot of people said Mauer was just flat out better.

mauer seemingly has the advantages of being DHed and hitting on turf yet mccann has the better numbers. at this point mauer is better defensively although dont look at mccann's throwing out runners pct because braves pitchers cant hold runners.

is it ok to say mccann is just as great now? perhaps its ok to prefer him over mauer?

Both are studs. This was one of the more interesting debates ive read and want to see where people stand now.

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i think

It's going to take a while for McCann to overcome the hype that preceded Mauer. When the consensus best prospect in baseball moves to the majors, and plays very well - he is thought of as great. That said, I think McCann is right there. Hold a gun to my head and ask who I want for my C - and I'll probably say Mauer - because he did it as the focal point of the Twinkies offense...but it's close.

by Dfarth on Sep 24, 2006 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is a repost, but relevant

Mauer's K%: 10.1%
Mauer's BB: 13.4%

McCann's K%: 12.5%
McCann's BB%: 9%

Mauer's underlying ratios are perhaps the second best in baseball for a player slugging over .500. The only comparable is the great Pujols (14.6 BB%, 9.3 K%).

Basically, Mauer's underlying ratios are those of a consistent .330 average, .430 OBP hitter. And when he starts hitting homers, watch out.

McCann's ratios are great, don't get me wrong, and probably will lead to consistent .300 averages and .370+ OBP. He's going to be one of the top backstops in the game, no doubt about it. But Mauer's indicator stats are amazing and McCann's are merely very good.

by limozeen on Sep 24, 2006 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

to me

the differences are negligble...that stat is in Mauer's favor whereas extra base hit % and power numbers are in McCann's favor...

You assume that Mauer will start hitting for power...I could just as easily assume that McCann will walk a little more...

I'll take one from Monty Python and call it a draw.

by Dfarth on Sep 24, 2006 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

A 4% difference in walk percentage isn't negligable. Neither is a 3% difference in strikeout percentage.

The first is the difference between consistent IsoD of .90 and .065, and the second is the difference between consistent .300 and consistent .330 batting averages.

Basically, Mauer will be getting on base 43% of the time and McCann will be getting on base 37% of the time. And that's a ridiculously huge difference.

by limozeen on Sep 24, 2006 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I don't know as much about the stats as you do...in fact - I'm not much of a stat head...

There's a reason for that too - because stats can be made to reinforce your point no matter what it is...I'm not saying you are doing that here...that's just why I'm not a stat man.

Take for example, how Mauer's second half has been far inferior to his first half. His K/BB ratios have actually improved...but he's hitting .299/.404/.441 (not counting today).

Ultimately, I meant that their OPS (which is my measure for how good a hitter is) will be close...your point about K and BB percents is highly BA and OBP related...In my opinion, what McCann lacks in terms of OBP - he will makeup for in slugging. That's what I meant when I said the differences are negligable.

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the whole

thing, Dfarth. I understand your point about twisted or "convenient" stats, but don't you think you're kind of guilty of that here yourself? You are choosing to brush away the underlying #'s limozeen is using while at the same time pushing Mauer's 2nd half stats - a smaller sample size that re-inforces your point. One of the stats you're using, batting average, can be a very fickle stat in that it depends a great deal on luck - especially when the sample size is smaller.

Looking at the raw ba/obp/ops I'd say they were pretty close. Looking at WHY those numbers are the way they are tells a different story. I think the difference in K% and BB% is far fron negligible and the gap between those 2 is wider than I thought it was. One very good thing about indicator #'s is it allows you to see what may be luck and/or what is repeatable/not likely to be repeated.

I'm no sabre-metrician myself, but understanding many of the indicator numbers such as what limozeen has done can be the difference between watching a black and white TV or watching the latest plasma HD.

by slurve on Sep 25, 2006 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Man.

I wish I had a plasma. My fricking old TV bends at the corners so sometimes you miss the ball-strike count if it's in the upper left.

Just trying to keep this thread on-topic, you know?

by abbreviatedman on Sep 25, 2006 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uhhh....

my post was on topic. People are comparing players using stats. Some people use stats better than others. The TV comp was a metaphor to aid my point.

by slurve on Sep 25, 2006 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slurve

I posted the second half arguments tongue in cheek...as in I could say this if I wanted to make a case against Mauer...because this stat makes him look bad...

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or actually

I was posting a stat that showed how his K/BB was not indicating better performance in the second half...but again - it was tongue in cheek...meant to show how I'm not much of a stat person

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Close but Mauer still the man

While Mauer is much better on the on-base part McCann has shown much more power.

Mauer IsoS - .155
McCann IsoS - .237

And according to Mauer himself he doubts he will develop too much power as he is concentrating on keeping a level stroke more aimed at high average and doubles.

This is McCanns first year so we have to be a little patient to see what we have with him, and of course it's Mauers breakout year.

Based strictly on the numbers I would have taken McCann. But Mauers numbers are deflated because of how much playing time he has received and is wearing down. I think Minny in future years will have to start DHng him 1 day a week in order to keep him fresh late in the year. He's just too valuable to sit.

by pedrophile on Sep 25, 2006 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer DH'ing

Mauer already does DH about once a week. If anything, McCann is the one who should be tiring since he can't use the DH spot in the NL and played through a foot injury during the middle of the season.

Also, check out Mauer's splits when he DH's versus when he catches.

Mauer as C: .333/.415/.482
Mauer as DH: .446/.537/.661

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Sep 25, 2006 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Christ...

maybe Mauer should be a full time DH...

by SenorGato88 on Sep 25, 2006 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sample size

is everything. 116 games at catcher. 16 at DH.

by slurve on Sep 25, 2006 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

How does McCann's defense compare to Mauer's? I know Mauer is an excellent defensive catcher as well as a great hitter, but I don't get the opportunity to see McCann play very often.

As much as I love Mauer, from the little I've seen of McCann, I really like him. I'd probably take Mauer in the long-run, but you certainly can't go wrong with either.

by MauerPower on Sep 24, 2006 11:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

McCann is also a year younger

He is very patient at the plate...and already boasts a very impressive OBP. When he becomes the featured hitter in that lineup he is going to walk ever more. Maybe not as much as Mauer.

If McCann played in the AL and DHed...i think we could see a 35-40 type homer year from him in his best year. Int the NL he probably loses around 6-8 homers a year.

I think it is the hype like a poster mentioned for why Mauer gets all the recognition.

by bravitos5122 on Sep 25, 2006 12:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HRs

I think a lot of people (myself included) were surprised by the HR numbers McCann has put up. What is his home/road split? Is Atlanta playing like a pitcher's park this year?

by sasquatch83 on Sep 25, 2006 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It doesnt really matter what the number say its

playing as "this year". Atlanta is a near exactly neutral park historically and nothing has changed with regards to its fences or anyting

by nms on Sep 25, 2006 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The most impressive thing to me is.....

with the unbalanced schedule he's putting up a lot of numbers in RFK, Shea, and Pro Player/Joe Robbie/Dolphins Stadium.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Sep 25, 2006 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer vs McCann

At this point, I'd still give a slight edge to Mauer based on a longer track record.

It's already a good debate (given that McCann has been just as good as Mauer in Mauer's "breakout" year) and one that I could see raging for a long time.

by rwperu34 on Sep 25, 2006 12:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Defense among other things...

Mauer has given up roughly half as many stolen bases as McCann, with a CS% roughly twice as good. He has commited half as many errors as McCann.

More advanced metrics measure Mauer's defense as well above average and McCann's well below average.

So Mauer is a better defender, walks more, strikes out less, hits for higher average, and runs faster.

McCann hits more home runs.

I love McCann, but Mauer is better.

Also, the extra base hit differential isn't as great as one might expect. Mauer has 49 and McCann has 52. Some of Mauer's doubles start flying over the fence and this discussion becomes laughable...

by tbac on Sep 25, 2006 2:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not to be the contrarian

but mauer has less extra base hits in about 20% more at bats...

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I side with mauer

but McCann is obviously very very good.

He has above average power and while Mauer k/bb, K%, bb% are better its not like McCann is a total hacker.

.300/.370 with 20+ bombs from a catcher is elite as are mauer's stats.

by Team Moneyball on Sep 25, 2006 2:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Average

I think the big difference we will see longterm between these players is batting average...i think McCann is having something of a fluke year in this department and i excpect him to settle nicely into a bunch of years around three hundred with a couple years around where he is now...Mauer on the other hand could be one of those rare players that consistenly hits 330 plus...this will lead Mauer to have a stronger On base percentage throughout his career...this combined with his superior defense makes mauer the better player in my opinion...All that said McCann is great and my favorite player on my favorite team

by gibbs52 on Sep 25, 2006 3:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

McCann's average

I don't see why McCann's average is a fluke.

McCann is a great contact hitter with a good feel for the strikezone and above average power to all fields. That's the recipe for a .300+ hitter if you ask me.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Sep 25, 2006 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

I do agree that teh difference between the two will be batting average in the future.

Even if Mauer really thought he won't show major power in the future, I still think he will end up a 20-25 HR hitter. That plus his pretty sick ratios make me see a catcher who can consistently hit as much as .300-320 a year with a .400+ OBP and .500+ slugging. If he reaches that level, considering his GG defense, not many guys are going to be challenging him as far as best catcher.

McCann IMO will do one thing better than Mauer his whole career, hit for power. That just isn't a HUGE advantage considering what Mauer brings to the table.

by SenorGato88 on Sep 25, 2006 7:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Difference

The difference between the two is really defense. Catching is a defensive position and Mauer is a likely gold glove at some point. McCann isn't close. If he continues to hit, its not impossible he will change positions just to keep his bat in the lineup.

by TT on Sep 25, 2006 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Linear Weights?

What was the statistical probability that Rickey Henderson would score when he got to first base compared to Frank Thomas? What does this say about the value of their walks? What was the statistical probability they would score from second base. What does this say about the value of Rickey Henderson's stolen bases? How large an effect does the pitcher have on the likelihood someone will score from first base or second base with the same number of outs? How important is it who the runner is? How important is it who the batters coming up are? How important is it what the score is? What inning it is?

by TT on Sep 25, 2006 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wrong Place

Not sure how it happened, but this post is irrelevant here.

by TT on Sep 25, 2006 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

American League vs. National

Mauer did it against the far harder league.

In admittedly tiny sample sizes, Mauer went 18 for 38 against the NL, McCann went 13 for 41 against the AL.

This year, comparing NL players to AL players is apples to oranges.

by BIgMax on Sep 25, 2006 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FAR harder?

Please...theres so little evidence to support that...unless you think the small samples of interleague play are worth anything

Sure theres likely a difference but its hardly tht big of a deal

by nms on Sep 25, 2006 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Far might have been a stretch

Still, in a season's worth of games, the AL was the equivalent of a 100 game winner to the NL's 100 game loser.

Anecdotally, players going AL to NL had greater success than players going the other way. I haven't looked up numbers, so this is just opinion (i.e. rubbish until proven otherwise).

Both young catchers are extraordinary. We need a few more years to really compare them. The Braves have to be thrilled with what McCann has given them.

by BIgMax on Sep 25, 2006 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

are you serious?

You really think the NL/AL difference is "the equivalent of a 100 game winner to the NL's 100 game loser."

wow
yeah sure buddy

by nms on Sep 25, 2006 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was the record this season

right before the last 3 games each team:

AL -- 100-62
NL -- 62-100

so, to sum up, yes.

by BIgMax on Sep 25, 2006 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overall

154-98.

162 game equivalent: AL record 99-63.

Please, everyone -- don't bet on the NL in the World Series, and don't expect NL players to improve when they come to the AL.

by BIgMax on Sep 25, 2006 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am a Mauer guy

I'd go with Mauer, too, but the numbers McCann put up can't be ignored.

Catcher is a defensive position, and I wonder about the assertion that it's the pitcher's job to hold the runner to allow for a catcher to throw him out.

Has anyone done a study as to the effects of poor pitcher holds vs a catcher's throw as to which is a greater indicator of CS%???

Obviously that's huge in this debate.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Sep 25, 2006 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Caught Stealing

In theory, the number of times a runner gets caught is entirely the runners' miscalculation. A catcher with a strong arm shouldn't be run on as often. In practice some guys are sent on hit and runs, where calculation of getting caught is mostly irrelevant, and get the stolen base because of a weak or off-target throw.

So number of steals is probably more representative of the catcher than CS. But every base stealer will say that they run on the pitcher, not the catcher. Its not just how good their move to first is at holding runners, but how fast their delivery gets to the plate.

by TT on Sep 25, 2006 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McCann

I'll take McCann. Everybody who picks Mauer fails to mention that McCann has more power. That is undeniable. So what if he hits .300 - .310. Mauer is not going to remain a .330 - .340 hitter. Also, from what I understand McCann is pretty badly dinged up. In short, I'll take the man named McCann!

"Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra

by the pinstripes on Sep 25, 2006 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

Actually, the only player who puts up similar K% and BB% in the majors (Pujols) is a .330 hitter. So yeah, I'd argue you're wrong.

by limozeen on Sep 25, 2006 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Bonds...

Does he even count anymore?

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

limo

I'm wrong about what? McCann is certainly capable of posting .300 plus seasons.

"Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra

by the pinstripes on Sep 25, 2006 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong about

I think he was saying you were wrong in your assumption that Mauer isn't going to stay a .330-.340 hitter. His underlying numbers are on par with Pujols and Bonds so it's not like a fluke season with him getting lucky on BABIP. Unless Mauer makes a conscious effort to improve his power numbers, he should contend for batting titles for years to come.

by slurve on Sep 25, 2006 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

I shouldn't have said he won't. Rather, it is hard to predict that he will remain a .330+ hitter yearly. Certainly, he could do it.

"Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra

by the pinstripes on Sep 25, 2006 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not too premature to say...

That Mauer is AMAZING while McCann could be a multi-year All Star. It isn't close. Mauer is better...

-peter

by PeterF on Sep 25, 2006 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

Isn't close?

Are you blinded by something here?

Let's not even bring up the fact that McCann is a year younger than Mauer.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Sep 25, 2006 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defence

While it has been mentioned here before, I don't think enough emphasis is being placed on the defensive differences. Catcher is a very key defensive position, likely the most important on the field, and these two players simply don't compare. First, the common defensive stats... Mauer has made 4 errors, for a .995 fielding percentage. McCann, 8 errors in fewer innings, has a .990 FP. Mauer is at 38% of stealers thrown out, where the mlb average is typically 30-31%. McCann is at 22%. Most catchers sit between 25% and 35%. Moreover, Mauer has to throw out the more skilled stealers. Why? Because only the better base-stealers try to run on him. In 1022 defensive innings only 56 attempts have been made on Mauer, while 83 attempts have been made on McCann's arm in fewer (973) defensive innings. McCann's "book" in the minor leagues was as a good hitter with below-average but improving defence. If that holds, he will get better behind the plate but is not an above-average guy back there.
Based on Mauer's big league career to this point, his numbers are headed toward the elite defensive catchers of all time (Campanella, Bench, Ivan Rodriguez) who were so good only the best dared test their arms. McCann's numbers are in Javy Lopez or Mike Piazza neighborhood, who is victimized by opposing catchers among others... I LOVE Piazza, and have owned him in a keeper simulation league since he came up in 1992, but the man cannot throw out baserunners, and is going to the Hall of Fame in spite of his catching abilities, not because of them... he is probably the best-hitting catcher of all time. He managed to stay behind the plate because he could get by there in spite of the runners advancing, and because he handles pitchers very well. For McCann to get into that league he has to keep hitting like he currently is for at least 12-14 years, while convincing teams to keep him behind the plate in spite of his deficiencies there.
If we were talking about strictly offensive value, the debate is very close, and at least for this year McCann would have some advantages because of the power.... quite a few people (not all) would choose his 2006 bat over Mauer's. But as a total package, the value of an elite defensive catcher who hits is way higher than a below-average defensive catcher who hits.

by JRTwins on Sep 25, 2006 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Except I think you are wrong about why there have been more attempts on McCann...

Teams in the NL East run a lot more than teams in the AL Central...As is evidenced by the 625 SB attempts by the non-Brave NL East teams this year compared to only 399 by the non-Twin AL Central teams.

To show this better...opponents attempted to run on Mauer 56 times in 1022 innings or roughly .0548 times per inning. Opponents attempted to run on McCann 83 times in 973 innings or roughly .0853 time per inning. Comparing the two numbers shows that opponents ran on McCann 55.65% more than on Mauer...which right on par with how much more teams (other than the Braves and Twins) run in the NL East...which is 56.64% more than than in the AL Central. This difference is the style of play better explains why people run on McCann more than Mauer.

Also you say that more "skilled stealers" run on Mauer than McCann. There is no way to back this up, but 4 of the top 10 basestealers in baseball (Reyes, Ramirez, Lopez, and Soriano) played in the NL East...

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are a lot of variables

when looking at stealing bases on a catcher. The pitcher does factor in like someone else has pointed out. If you throw all of that stuff out, Mauers arm is an absolute cannon and his catch/release times to 2nd base are outstanding. McCann isn't bad, but he is no Mauer.

by slurve on Sep 25, 2006 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quality of stealers

Sorry if I didn't day this clearly... I didn't quite mean that more good stealers run on Joe, but rather that the mediocre ones start to decide NOT to run on him as his prowess becomes more well known. Therefore the percentage of good runners going on him starts to rise. It is easy to see in Pudge Rodriguez' numbers over the years... marginal guys just stopped testing him because they always got gunned down.

I thank you for your point about the number of attempts overall in the two divisions... I had not done my homework in that area. I hope to take a look at the catchers within the AL Central to see if it's just because they don't run as much there... or whether they choose to run less against two of the top throwing catchers in the league (Mauer and Pudge).

I also want to check out the percentage of success McCann has compared to other NL East catchers in throwing out those runners.

by JRTwins on Sep 26, 2006 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you look at those things soon

then post them here...i'm curious myself

by Dfarth on Sep 26, 2006 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

respectfully, I disagree

When I watch McCann I see a very, very good professional hitter. Certainly, a hitter capable of posting .300 + avg seasons with 30+ homer power. Right now I don't see Mauer coming close to 30 dingers unless he changes his approach which I'm not suggesting he does.

One poster noted that Mauer will develop more power. What about McCann? He's a year younger and is already smoking him.

Defensively, Mauer is as good as they come but McCann is no slouch either.

This argument is certainly alot closer than you think.

"Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra

by the pinstripes on Sep 25, 2006 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Just for fun...I compared McCann's stats to golden boy David Wright...and he he trumps Wright in nearly every way...despite being over a year younger and just in his first full season...McCann deserves his credit...

by Dfarth on Sep 25, 2006 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wright vs. mccann

well thats saying something then...

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Sep 26, 2006 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget about

Russell Martin.

by PatrickTheDodgersFan on Sep 25, 2006 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not a chance

Hi, no way would we forget about him. He's having quite a rookie campaign. I believe Maddux said that if you can't pitch to him you can't pitch to anyone. That's high praise coming from him when we all know how picky he can be with the back stop.

Also, 10 dingers and 10 steals as a catcher in his rookie season is pretty damned good. I believe he's a 60rbi - 60 run guy as well in not much more than 110 games while hitting 7th or 8th. That's pretty damned good!

"Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra

by the pinstripes on Sep 25, 2006 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

steals

i'm very interested to see how mauer and martin progress in terms of base stealing.

by PatrickTheDodgersFan on Sep 25, 2006 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still love him

I'm already on record on this site as saying that I prefer McCann to Mauer. The relevent arguments have already been made, criteria discussed, etc. For me, the main point is this: in a lineup of legitimate mashers, headlined by the Jones boys and supplemented by Renteria, Giles, LaRoche, and even Francouer, McCann proved himself by far the most valuable hitter. He carried the team on his back for large stretches of the season, and did about all he could do considering that he inexplicably hit 6th or 7th most of the season.

Add that to the fact that he's a hometown boy, and I'm sold. The fact that he's doing all this despite being 4 months younger than me just KILLS me.

by alexwithclass on Sep 25, 2006 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs