More AL Central
by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2006 2:54 PM EDT
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PrintWhat about the Indians? This was a disappointing year for them. . .most people (including me) thought they would be the team taking a big step forward, not the Tigers.
How close are the Tribesmen to contending in this difficult division?
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My big question: What do you guys think of Marte's play so far. The guy is a slow starter, I know, but .230? He has had some solid play at 3B, and given his awesome spring and not getting the call up he expected, he developed some poor habits trying to hit for power. I think he can bounce back and be productive. He is barely 23, and as we all saw in the home run derby, he too can mash. He is a key player in their future.
Tribe
by exileincincy on Sep 22, 2006 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Simple quick comment
There are other issues for sure but I think the main one starts with who is catching.
Martinez
- Where are they going to put him? They already have a few guys who can hit and play first, so that's not really a long-term option. I don't think he can play the outfield. I'm not sure it's really possible to get equal value for him in trade. So what do you do with him? With Hafner firmly ensconced at DH, the only option I see is to keep him at C and hope he improves at least back to his career norms for catching base-stealers.
- I'm not sure that this has quite as a big an effect as you do; many teams have been just fine with offensive-minded catchers who couldn't throw people out. Mike Piazza never prevented his teams from competing. As far as killing DP opportunities, that's fine and all, but good bullpens are built around strikeouts, strikeouts, and more strikeouts, so any real improvement in the bullpen is going to make double plays less important anyhow. Even with a groundball staff and good infield defense, I'm not sure how many DPs Martinez is actually costing the team as is; it's not like having a runner on first and less than two outs is any kind of guarantee.
As far as what I would do? Infield defense is the biggest problem, and the obvious candidate for improvement is 2B, unless one wants to move Peralta, which might be a good idea. If a deal for Hudson were available, I would make it -- but with the D-Backs looking like they can contend next year, I'm not sure it will be. The Indians can afford to get little production from that slot in the lineup, given the runs they score with everybody else, so just about any glovish middle infielder might be a good idea. And the bullpen? There is no specific magic formula for building a good bullpen, but the best idea I've seen is to just sort of sift through as many power arms as you can lay your hands on, not worry about big-money free agents, and not worry much about handedness if you find six or seven righties who can do the job.
Indians
With Crowe moving to 2B, I'd just find someone to work with Peralta on his defense. If gets back to 80% of his 2005 output he's a plus offensive player at SS. Marte gets 3B almost by default, I think he'll hit even if it takes a year or two. I'd keep Kouzmanoff in LF and with the thought of moving him back to third if Marte never comes around with the bat. Sizemore in CF is a core player like Hafner and V-Mart. I'd go with Blake in RF for next year, he's signed cheaply enough. Keep Michaels around as a fourth OF type, but don't go more than one year on a deal with him.
There are plenty of OF options in the minors in Gutierrez, Fransisco, Goleski, Barton, Snyder...one of these guys will likely grab the RF job. Another option besides trading Garko is to see if can play RF. He'd be a good option if he can handle it defensively.
The rotation is in good shape with Sabathia, Byrd, Westbrook, Sowers, Lee, and Miller on the horizon. There are plenty of talented arms here, maybe a switch to a guy like Mike Maddux could make the difference. I'd go out and spend the money on Joe Borowski to close out games for me. Between the young arms of Brown, Carmona, Mujica, Davis, Cabrera, and Mastny I think the pen will be ok. Lots of talent here, it just needs to be harnessed.
Poor defense but....
Oh, I see . . .
The Indians offense is not a problem. If they spend much time looking for guys who can bunt and steal, they're going to lose ground, not gain it, in the AL Central.
by woodstein52 on Sep 22, 2006 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
That's exactly my point
by lebronballer23 on Sep 24, 2006 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
feast or famine
And the Chi-sox were know for scoring runs but always in bunches and not winning as many games as they were "supposed to". And we know the result of the WS.
It should be noted
But that doesn't take away from your point, although it begs the question of what happened this year. Pitching staff coming down to earth? Same for positional players? Aaron Rowand really made that much of a difference?
hola, hablas espanol?
So I don't think it's too much of a suprise. And when you add in the struggles of Buehrle who has been amazingly consistent I would actually think Chicago would be worse off. They were not far from making it and will finish with a solid record.
Man, can they hit this year. Look at that top 6 with Thome, Konerko, Dye, Crede all mashing this year.
My thoughts on the Indians!
RoversFan and exileincincy - I think you've hit on several of the key reasons why the Indians have faltered this year - the defense has been atrocious. While not having a closer has not helped, really the season was lost before Bob Wickman was even traded - the rest of the bullpen was not effective (Cabrera, Betancourt, Mota, Graves, etc.) That's what really sunk the Indians and why they eventually traded Bob Wickman (of course, the Indians thought he was retiring after this year as well, but that has obviously changed.)
However, I disagree on the trading of Kouzmanoff, for now. Kouzmanoff has shown much better skill, including higher BAs and much better BB/K rates, throughout his Minor League career than Brad Snyder, who still can't handle AA after two tries, as he was expected to improve his BB/K ratio and get some AAA at-bats this season, which didn't happen. I agree that the Indians should have considered trading Snyder sooner, but Kouzmanoff is a considerably better prospect than Snyder, and there's no reason to believe he is going to flop like Snyder did.
RoversFan - the main reason why Kouzmanoff must stay around for now is because of what you said about Marte. While Marte has made some progress offensively, he's still inconsistent. Now, granted, he is only 22, but, with his long swing and tendency to chase pitches, I doubt he'll ever hit .300+ like Garko and Kouz could (in some ways, especially with his long swing and approach at the plate, Marte reminds me of the 2006 Peralta, sorry to say.) In fact, Marte's highest Minor League BA was .285 at High A Myrtle Beach back in 2003; it has fallen for the most part as he's moved up the Minor League ladder.
That is why several experts think he will only hit around .270 or so in his prime, but that could be a few years away. Right now, I think Marte will struggle to hit .250 with his tendencies to chase breaking balls down and away and his tendency to pull the ball too often.
With no other quality 3B prospects above SS A in the farm system, the Indians need to keep Kouzmanoff to make sure they still have an option in case Marte really struggles offensively next year, which is a possibility.
Plus, while this isn't a guarantee that the Indians will keep all three, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported the other day that Shapiro identified Kevin Kouzmanoff, Adam Miller, and Trevor Crowe as "high-ceiling prospects" in the farm system.
There have been rumors that Ryan Garko will be traded, but I wouldn't do that either, agreeing with what exileincincy said - Garko should be the Indians' 1B next year. If you trade him, you have a hole at 1B. While I believe Kouzmanoff could eventually handle the position, I'd like to see what my friend Jay from LetsGoTribe suggested - keep Marte, Kouzmanoff, and Garko and have those three share 3B and 1B, along with Kouz in LF if he can handle the position. That way, none of them are overexposed, yet each can get 400+ ABs or so, plus you strengthen your bench by having one of those three on it if one of them isn't playing on a given day. This could also help Kouzmanoff stay healthy, as he's had back and hamstring issues over the last two years (though his injury history is significantly better than Aubrey's, so his injury history isn't that extreme.)
FRANCHISEv2 - while I agree Victor's throwing has been a problem, Victor might improve next year - he's had an injured big toe on his left foot, which may be partly to blame for his poor throwing. He's had this injured toe for at least a few months now (I don't know if it was late May or early June when he first suffered the injury, but I know it's been a few months.)
That doesn't mean he will be an outstanding thrower next year, but I think an improvement over this year's throwing isn't unreasonable to expect. Plus, Wedge has continued to state that the pitchers must do a better job of holding runners on; this was evident the other day when the pitcher (don't remember if it was Carmona, Cabrera, or someone else) didn't pay attention to the runner and Kelly Shoppach rushed his throw, leading to a very poor throw that bounced to 2B, so the stolen base problem isn't entirely Victor's fault either.
By most accounts also, Victor calls a good game and is good at blocking balls; it's just his throwing that is problematic, but his big toe injury partly is exacerbating that weakness in his game this year. While he's never had a great throw-out percentage in the Minors, it was never this low, even in his past few years in the Majors, so I think a percentage closer to his throw-out percentage norms is reasonable to assume for next year.
I also doubt the Indians will give up on Victor right away because he is still one of the better hitting catchers in the league and he's still under 30. Of course, with Garko's emergence (and to a lesser extent, Kouz's development,) moving Victor to 1B isn't as much of an option now, so if you don't play Victor behind the plate, it's likely you would have to trade him, and I don't think the Indians will do that for a few more years, since I believe he is signed through 2009 or 2010.
exileincincy - I agree with your assessment about trading one of Lee/Westbrook/Byrd (LWB,) though I'd consider trading either Lee or Byrd this offseason, as I think Carmona could be better than any of them. I know that he's only had a few starts after the questionable decision to make him a reliever, but Carmona's biggest problem has been to keep his emotions in check and to channel them properly. Plus, his Minor League track record has always shown him to be a solid, above-average starting pitching prospect.
Carmona has shown improvement in keeping his emotions in check over his last two starts against the Twins and A's (opposing Johan Santana and Esteban Loaiza, outpitching both of them.) That's why I'd be tempted to find a trade partner for Lee or Byrd and see if you could get a quality 2B or reliever or two in return to help fill some of the holes on this ballclub. I think Carmona could do quite well as the #5 starter for this club next year (in fact, he would have been the #5 starter in 2006 if the Indians hadn't decided to sign Jason Johnson at the last moment, so I think Carmona could handle the #5 spot very well if given the chance.)
Take care and have a great weekend!
But don't you worry...
My main contention, and you hit it as well, is that Kouz has some upside, so get rid of him while his stock is still high. I personally think he has been riding a career year. I could be wrong, but I doubt he will hit .300 next year. Since Marte is obviously going to be the 3B of the future (come Hell or high water), why not let him fight off his demons next year. I think we should let him go to Sp. training next year knowing it's his position to lose. I think the stress to perform would be off his shoulders, and I think he can work solely on fixing that hole in his swing instead of worrying that someone will beat him out. I guess if he does hit .270 with above average defense, and manages 25+ bombs a year, I will take it. I don't see Kouz doing that though (again, I could be wrong). If you flip now for a LF/RF/SP that can produce now, you might have a shot. Just my two cents'.
The window is opening, not closing!
You make good points, but, first, the Indians' farm system is far better than the Giants. The Indians' farm system is still a Top 10 system, whereas the Giants are probably still in the bottom half (16-30.) Second, the Indians aren't nearly as old as the Giants either (their entire core is under 30 - Hafner doesn't turn 30 until June; how many of the Giants' core is under 30 - 1 or 2 at most?) No offense, but the Indians and Giants are in two different age brackets. In fact, the Indians were the second-youngest team average age-wise when all their prospects came up, even younger than the Twins. Only the Marlins had a younger average age.
When you say "our window is closing," I can see that only from the point of keeping Sabathia and Hafner beyond their current contracts, and of course, making an effort to improve ourselves and win soon would certainly help us in retaining those two.
However, in terms of age and the status of our farm system, I don't think the window is "closing"; on the contrary, I think the window is just beginning to "open" again. After 2001, that's when the window closed. It was closed after that until around the 2005-2006 seasons. So, I can still see the window open for another 2 years, at least, with this current group, and with prospects such as Adam Miller, Chuck Lofgren, Tony Sipp, Brian Barton, Trevor Crowe, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Goleski, Jose Constanza, etc., still coming, I think the window could be open into the next decade, depending on if Shapiro can resign Hafner and Sabathia and/or get very good value for them in trades, as well as make some astute FA signings. Only time will tell what position the Indians are in after Shapiro makes his moves.
Hafner only turns 30 in June, as I mentioned - I still think he could hit .300 with 40+ HRs until he's at least 35, and look at the bounce-back year Frank Thomas is having at 38, and he's been a DH for several years now, so it's possible that Hafner could even hit .300 with 40+ HRs beyond 35. That's at least 5-6 more seasons (provided the Indians can keep him.)
Victor only turns 29 in March; some speculate that catching for a long time could slow down his bat, which it could, but like you said, I would think 4-5 more seasons of above-average performance from Victor as a catcher is certainly reasonable.
Again, I don't think the window is going to close by 2007 or even 2008. And, I meant to mention this in my last post, I agree with exileincincy that I think 2008 and 2009 will be more the years when the Indians will really be ready to make a run for a WS. 2007, I think it could be possible if a lot of things break right for the Indians and the Tigers and Twins fall back a bit like the White Sox did this year (a possibility.)
However, I think the Indians' main years to really challenge are in 2008 and 2009 - by then, Adam Miller should be up, Chuck Lofgren could be up, Trevor Crowe should be up, guys like Barton and Goleski should be up, guys like Garko and Kouzmanoff should start producing consistently at the ML level over a full season, etc. So, in my opinion, I see the window more "opening" than "closing."
You make a good point about Lee, though there have been trades for pitchers after they've signed contract extensions (see Bronson Arroyo.) I'm not sure the Indians would do that because it would likely make them look bad for any potential free agents (which is why I wish they hadn't signed him to an extension,) but it's not totally out of the realm of possibility.
As for Kouzmanoff, check out his stats from The Baseball Cube; you will see that he has hit over .300 at every stop of the Minor Leagues (outside of the one stint at AA Akron when he skipped High-A, coming from Low A Lake County, only because he was the closest 3B geographically to replace one-time top 3B prospect Corey Smith, who was injured. Lake County is located in Eastlake, Ohio, about 45 miles from Akron, Ohio.) He's also had solid BB/K ratios throughout his Minor League career, so while he might not hit .300+, I think he'll be close. As John put it, you can probably expect Kouzmanoff .280 with 15-25 HRs once he gets acclimated to the Majors - not too shabby.
As for Marte, in my opinion, to be the best, you need to beat out the best competition. In my opinion, Marte shouldn't just be handed the 3B position. When the Indians anointed Brandon Phillips as the 2B starter in Spring Training 2003, he went out and proved he wasn't ready. Peralta was outstanding when Alex Cora was in Spring Training Camp to begin the 2005 season; however, this year, when Peralta was named the starter right away, he faltered as well.
So, no, I'd rather Marte outperform Kouzmanoff for the 3B starting job - if Marte can't outperform someone else, why should he get the job? The pressure is only going to mount as the Indians vie for a postseason position - better for Marte to learn how to deal with it now rather than wait until the postseason is within reach and then have Marte try to figure out how to deal with the pressure.
Like I said, I'd rather keep all three of Garko/Kouz/Marte around to man 1B, 3B, and LF - this way, no one guy has to try to do too much, yet all three can try to relax, do what they can, and help make this offense as consistent as it was in the second half of 2005 when the Indians were the hottest team in baseball, getting contributions 1-9. They haven't had that same kind of continuity since, and I feel mixing in high BA, good contact hitters like Garko and Kouz with lower BA, higher power hitters like Peralta and Marte, will create the most dynamic and most consistent offense so that the Indians can score 5-6 runs virtually every night, rather than scoring 10 runs one night and 1-3 runs the next 2-3 nights. That was also a major reason why the Indians faltered this year, and while 2B and the bullpen need to be improved, the offense wasn't without its own flaws, despite the Top 5 runs scored ranking this year.
Take care and have a great weekend!
I see
I agree with your points; question about SF!
You're welcome - happy to help! :-)
Yes, I agree with your point about inserting Carmona into the rotation - I'd like to see that as well, replacing either Lee or Byrd (preferably this offseason.)
I'm starting to wonder whether Blake will really be back next year; I know they keep talking about his versatility, but with all the players to man specific positions (Marte and Kouz at 3B, Garko and Kouz at 1B, Choo, Gutierrez, Sizemore, Michaels, Francisco in the OF, along with Kouz hopefully in the future, etc.,) his versatility isn't as valuable as it would be with fewer players. And being that's he 33 and not likely to get better, I don't know if you can expect him to match the production he was providing earlier this year. So, I would certainly consider trading him in the right deal.
Indians' ownership is committed to building a winning team, and they keep saying when the time is right, they will spend more money (though some Indians' fans are not convinced, though I believe they will, beginning next year.) The Indians are projected to spend between 65-75 million next year, up from 56 million this year.
I'm still not sure I understand the connection with San Francisco - I thought that the Giants' organization was one that was willing to spend money (that's why their owner financed the stadium himself, not using any public money.) I may be wrong on that - if so, please correct me, but I'm not sure I see the connection. I'm just curious on what you mean by the comparison to SF.
Or are you saying that SF is underachieving compared to the talent they have and that the Indians are similar in that regard, based on their play this season? Just curious.
Take care and have a great Sunday!
Sorry
I see - thanks for the clarification!
You're welcome! :-)
Thanks for clarifying your point; I think I was on the right track with my second question from the last post.
I certainly hope the Indians don't follow in the Giants' footsteps in that regard either, though I think the Indians' farm system, specifically highly-regarded prospects like Adam Miller, Trevor Crowe, and Chuck Lofgren might help the Indians fill in those missing pieces without spending a fortune on questionable players. From what I recall, the Giants' farm system hasn't been strong in the last several years, specifically with hitters, and they haven't had a high number of meaningful, impact pitchers come from their system either (Cain and Lowry are the first two I can remember in some time.)
Having meaningful, impact players come from the farm system is certainly the hope of Indians' ownership, though like I said, they are expected to spend more in 2007, but even so, they'll never be able to compete with the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox's budgets, which adds to the Indians' difficulty of building a WS-contending team. Hopefully, they can overcome that sizable obstacle and win a WS in the near future.
Take care and have a great day!
V Mart...
Look at two veteran guys this year, Jorge Posada improved greatly on his throwing this year, while Bengie Molina fell off a cliff. things like this can vary greatly from year to year. obviously, there are the all the greats (I-rod) and the all time bad (Piazza) but everyone else is pretty much in between and can move up or down every year.
The main problems this year was the bad fieldings, that is probably one of the hardest part of the game to grasp, they just need to bring in some better coachs next spring training and work on it.
The one part where they can improve is obviously the bullpen, which has been utterly horrid, the only guy that was any good was Bob Wickman, who was then traded. if they even blew half less saves they probably would be more in cotention right now. Not many good closers out there though, they might need to think outside the box and try to bring in a Japanese guy or something.
Also, I have doubts that Choo will be a serious contributor next year... their corner OFs are a bit weak. though i suppose they have plenty of corner IF prospects that they can move around next year.
I don't know
Problem with that though is a weaker offense!
I can see your point, and others have mentioned that as well about moving Victor to 1B, but others (and the Indians as well) have said that Victor's greatest value is behind the plate - a great-hitting catcher is more valuable than a high-BA, below-average power 1B.
Martinez's hitting could improve a bit if he did move from behind the plate, but you essentially trade Garko/Kouz's bat for Shoppach's, and to this point, Shoppach hasn't been consistently offensively. Granted, he doesn't play every day, which doesn't help his long swing, but even if he did, I'm not convinced he'd replace Garko and Kouz's overall numbers. Shoppach never hit for a really high BA in the Minors, plus his BB/K ratio was below-average in my opinion (some people said he has good plate discipline, but realize that his Minor League BB/K ratio was 192/474! To me, that's not good plate discipline - Garko and Kouz both had better ratios, as did Marte and Peralta.)
While that may not seem like a problem on the surface with our high runs scored ranking this year, like I said before, this offense will score 10 runs one game, then only score 1-3 runs the next few games, leading to one blowout win and 1-3 blowout losses. Substituting Shoppach's bat for Garko/Kouz's bat(s) will likely make this offense less consistent and more strikeout-prone than it already is.
As I mentioned before, Victor has been dealing with a big toe injury; while that may not solve all his throwing problems, I think it will help to alleviate some of them, allowing him to make better throws more consistently. Plus, if the Indians' pitchers will start giving Martinez more of a chance to throw out these runners, I think Martinez could become average or so throwing out runners, which wouldn't be bad, especially with the offense he provides.
Take care and have a great weekend!
Good to talk to you again Indiansfan!
I'm not sure what kind of numbers you expect out of Garko at 1B, but I doubt they'd be much better than V-Mart could put up. Garko is probably a 20-25 HR guy, I think Victor could be 25-30 with the strain of catching. As you mention before, Shoppach has a long swing which tends to lead to higher K rates. Shoppach actually walked more in fewer AB's in the minors than Garko did, same with Kouz. His OBP is lower only because Garko and Kouz hit closer to .300 while Shoppach hit closer to .260, and as a result Kelly's IsoD is higher at .089 vs. .088 for Garko and .063 for Kouz.
As I said before, I also think that Kouz and Garko could be at their highest value right now. Coming from an A's fan who watched Dan Johnson destroy his value, it might be best to strike while the iron is hot. Kouz might bring a guy like Ryan Madson back, who could fill the 5th spot in the rotation, setup, or even become the closer. Garko could get you another solid bullpen arm. I understand the offense has had it's ups and downs, but part of that could be way players were juggled around. Too many options and guys not getting into a rythym. If the starting lineup was more set, maybe the offense would be more consistent.
I think moving Garko and Kouz for a couple of solid bullpen arms could be the difference for the Tribe next year.
Just my two cents. :)
Have a good night!
And same with you, gatling!
Thanks for the compliment - it's nice to talk and debate with you as well. :-)
You make good points; I agree that Garko and Vic are probably a wash at 1B hitting-wise, maybe Victor having a slight advantage power-wise.
However, I don't think the Indians are real keen on the idea of moving Victor out from behind the plate just yet, and being that they weren't willing to give Bard much playing time in place of Victor, I'm not sure they will with Shoppach either. I know Shoppach has more power than Bard, but Bard had a better BB/K ratio than Shoppach, plus had comparable defensive skills to Shoppach, as well as an equally strong arm, yet Victor wasn't displaced by Bard either, so I'm not convinced they'll move Victor to 1B right away, though I can see why you would suggest that. As Bard seems to be showing in San Diego, I think Bard could have been a better hitter with the Indians if he had gotten more regular playing time, not a few ABs a week or even a month like he got with the Indians.
I think even more than the question of Shoppach's ability to make contact against quality ML pitching, I think more of the reason why I wouldn't want to trade Garko and/or Kouz right now is because of Marte and Peralta. I see both of these guys having those long types of swings that will produce some power, but not .300 or close averages. I see .250-.270 hitters out of these guys at best; if they hit 25-35 HRs a year and drive in 80-100 runs, I could live with that. However, I want them to be able to deliver in the clutch off good pitching, something they both need to work on. I'm not saying Garko and Kouz are masters at it right now either, but those two have the types of swings that can put up the quality ABs you need to extend and drain a good pitcher and enable your team to hang in against tough pitching. Garko has already shown that skill a few times while he's been up, delivering with RISP and the bases loaded.
I'm not convinced Peralta and Marte have that ability at this point; that's why I fear if Garko and/or Kouz are traded, this offense will mostly be Sizemore, Hafner, and Martinez, and not much else. I wouldn't be surprised if the bottom part of our lineup is ineffective and inconsistent like it has been for most of this year (that was mostly due to Boone and Peralta earlier this year, but I'm not sure if Blake will put up another year like he did this year, plus I have doubts the player we get to play 2B will be much of an offensive player either, especially if it is Kennedy or Hudson.)
Like I said before, the offense was inconsistent this year; part of the problem could be the juggling of the lineups, but while the Indians were in contention earlier this season, Wedge stuck with the basic lineup most of the time (we even complained about it at times on LetsGoTribe.com.) So, I'm not so sure getting some of these guys more regular ABs in a certain spot in the lineup will do the trick - for the most part, it didn't with Peralta. Having more guys who have compact level swings and who are tough outs would help to make this offense more consistent, even if Marte and Peralta have their slumps. And, if Kouzmanoff can handle LF, I'd almost certainly take him over Michaels.
By the way, I'm not sure, but was the stadium in Pawtucket considered a pitcher's park or a hitter's park? I thought it was extreme one way or the other (hitter I thought, but I'm not sure.) That might also have affected Shoppach's power numbers, as they really seemed to spike when he reached Pawtucket. Whether that was due to the ballpark factors or because of a natural progression from Shoppach, I'm not sure, but I noticed that Shoppach hit 20+ HRs each of his two years at Pawtucket, but wasn't even close at Sarasota (the FSL - understandable why he wouldn't, since it's a pitchers' league,) and Portland (the EL - not sure if it was a pitchers' or hitters' league at that time.)
You make good points about getting quality bullpen arms, but part of the problem with bullpen arms is that they can waver in performance from year to year. For instance, compare Ryan Madson's 2006 performance to his 2004 and 2005 performances here - the difference is night and day. Bobby Howry, Arthur Rhodes, and David Riske are three more relief pitchers who haven't been as good as they were last year either. That's why I think the Indians will be cautious in any trades they make for bullpen help, probably for ones who have very consistent track records, some considerable experience, and possibly even stick to AL relievers, as they've been burned in the past with guys who have been mostly NL relievers like Scott Sauerbeck, Scott Stewart, Jose Jimenez, and Guillermo Mota.
Plus, the Indians already have several young quality relief prospects here, and a few more coming (like Tony Sipp,) so perhaps signing a veteran reliever or two with a decent to good track record may be enough to help the bullpen come closer to the 2005 bullpen's performance, rather than the 2004 or 2006 bullpen's performance, without giving up young talent like Kouz and Garko, two bats that could help the offense be more consistent next year from game to game and at-bat to at-bat.
Like I said before as well, I agree with exileincincy that 2008 and 2009 will likely be the years the Indians will really be ready to challenge for a WS; I'd see what we can do in FA and maybe explore a trade or two involving other prospects first before considering trading Garko or Kouz. Seeing what's out there between now and 2008 might open up other possibilities that are not visible at this point.
You make very good points, and I'm sure the Indians have a few "tricks" up their sleeves, but what players and/or prospects are involved to help improve the Indians for 2007, only time will tell.
Again, thanks for the compliment - greatly appreciated! :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
Kouzmanoff's playing time
by playingwithfire on Sep 23, 2006 8:25 AM EDT reply actions
It's mostly the positions and who's playing them!
I think it's mostly because the Indians are committed to Marte as the future 3rd baseman, and he needs more repetitions to get better offensively. At the same time, Garko has really taken hold of the 1B position, and he needs more reps as well. Of course, Kouzmanoff needs more reps too, but since he can't play LF at this point (because he's had limited reps in practice out there, and that was at AAA Buffalo before he was called up on Sept. 2,) he is mostly the odd man out, though with Hafner's injury, Kouz is getting more than expected at-bats at the DH spot, so that could be a silver lining to Hafner's injury, not that I want to see him injured, of course.
I would hope that Kouz will get time in the OF, as well as 1B, in the AFL or in Winter Ball. Kouz will play in the AFL if Aubrey can't go, and with his extensive injury history, it wouldn't surprise me if Kouz plays in the AFL in a few weeks. There have been rumors to that effect, since it's been reported, "If Aubrey can go," which doesn't sound like a good sign to me concerning Aubrey's ability to stay healthy and play.
I definitely agree that Kouz could get better and really improve and tune his swing and approach at the ML level with more consistent ABs, but because the Indians are committed to Marte at 3B and Garko has taken hold of 1B, combined with Kouz's inability to play in LF right now, that's why he keeps sitting. I'd certainly like him to get more at-bats, even if he's at the DH spot 5-7 times a week - I think he could be a solid above-average at-bat if given enough time to adjust to the ML level. I certainly hope he and/or Garko are not traded this offseason (for reasons I've mentioned in my earlier posts.)
I hope this has helped to answer your questions. If you have any more, please feel free to ask and I'll try to answer them as soon as I can! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
Kouz
But I wonder about his defense at 3B. Haven't really focused on it, so he may have just been struggling through a bad couple of games, but he seemed pretty lost at 3B. His footwork was off, his glove didn't seem quick enough, and he seemed like he was playing the position kind of scared.
Is he always this bad at 3B? Is there any thought of actually keeping him there, or are they just trying to get him some ABs there in the short-term and waiting for the offseason to teach him the OF? Although I worry about whether he will hit with enough power to justify a corner OF spot (if his defense is at or below par).
Peralta
Maybe (not unlikely) the stats are missing. I recall THT's annual relating that Jacob's Field lends itself to groundballs (very high park factors), so maybe Davenport's numbers are just under compensating.
Anyone have a different suggestion?
by Azteca on Sep 25, 2006 2:43 PM EDT reply actions
Indians
Four of the five infield spots are pretty well set. V-Mart should remain the catcher, simply because there's no other place to put him right now. I think his inability to throw out runners has as much to do with his staff as it does his weak arm. He's not a good defensive catcher, but I've changed my opinion on him...he's not as bad as many think he is.
Garko should be the starting first baseman. I think he'll be a solid hitter...a .280/.360/.500 type...a good #5 guy in most offenses.
Third base is all Marte's. His year this year reminds me of Edwin Encarnacion's 2005 campaign, and I think Marte will break out similarly. I think Garko and Marte will be very similar hitters...prototypical #5 guys with decent average and good OBP.
Shortstop is Peralta's. He's not as good as his 2005 season and not as bad as this year. He'll always have contact problems, but he should be able to improve his slugging and OBP from this year. I see him as a great hitting shortstop with annual .260/.340/.480 lines.
Second base is a big void. Hopefully for the Indians Crowe can make an impact there eventually. They'd be best off acquiring a Grudzielanek type as a stopgap. I don't think Inglett is an everyday player.
The other question mark is in the corner outfield spots. You have basically five players competing here...Michaels, Choo, Gutierrez, Blake, and Kouzmanoff. I don't like Jason Michaels much and think he's a platoon/fourth outfielder at best. I think he's best off being traded for bullpen help. Blake is a good player and hopefully can build on his season this year. I'd stick him out in right field and use Choo to spell him against tough righties. Gutierrez and Choo would be the backup outfielders and would log a couple hundred at bats each. Kouzmanoff would be my everyday leftfielder.
In the rotation, CC Sabathia has refined his control and emerged as the ace we thought he could be. He's a legit #1 starter at this point. Westbrook is a very serviceable #3. Lee is the question mark. His stuff has regressed a little...can he get it back and become the #2 this rotation needs, or will he remain a league average ERA pitcher? Either way, he's a big part of the rotation. Byrd is going to be a good LAIM as a #5.
I think that if the Indians are going to make a splash next year, I think acquiring another starter is important...Millwood 2005 as a precedent. I don't like Fausto Carmona as a starter and Adam Miller isn't ready to contribute quite yet. A Jason Schmidt would give this rotation the teeth it needs to compete in this difficult division.
The bullpen is the biggest issue. I really like Tom Mastny as a setup guy. I think Carmona can be good if given time to settle in. Cabrera and Sikorski both have nasty stuff, and Sikorski's peripherals are very encouraging...I think both can emerge as above average options in the pen. And Betancourt is a solid reliever. But I don't think any of these guys are closers. I think the Indians are a great team for Eric Gagne to go to if they're willing to pay him. I would advise against Borowski...he's this year's Todd Jones.
My lineup for next year:
C- Martinez
1B- Garko
2B- Grudzielanek
3B- Marte
SS- Peralta
LF- Kouzmanoff
CF- Sizemore
RF- Blake
DH- Hafner
Inglett, Choo, Shoppach, Gutierrez, and Luna are your bench options.
SP1- Sabathia
SP2- Free agent
SP3- Westbrook
SP4- Lee
SP5- Byrd
Sikorski, Cabrera, Carmona, and Mastny are your middle innings guys, Betancourt is the primary setup man, and Eric Gagne is your closer.
Quick question
agree on most
I think you left out Sowers. And I think you are really overstating C.Lee who's in my doghouse at the moment.
their rotation could be:
Sabathia
Sowers
Westbrook
Byrd
Lee
and A.Miller would join the club around all-star break and may take over C.Lee spot at some point.
But - I'm not sure if Miller will take time to adjust and may go into the pen at first. And I'm not sure if Cleveland can stay in the hunt with both Byrd and Lee in the rotation. Sowers is very good but is a bit of a question mark.
Given that I think Schmidt is a very good player to add. And since the park is a pitchers park like SF the drop-off won't be as drastic. Also, not to be dismissed is both cities are similar in size and press coverage.
This gives you one extra starter and I would give Lee the edge over Sowers only because of 2 things. If Lee does well - trade him. And it will keep Sowers innings down since the first month or two will be in the pen. Eventually Lee will be traded or start sucking. Or one of the other starters will go down with injury.
Sowers
Sowers
well
that's generally an old baseball adage for luck. There are pitchers like Jake Westbrook who can be very successful every year while striking out a batter every other inning, but great groundball tendencies and a minimal walk rate are required.
Sowers limits walks decently, but he's no prodigy at it. His GB/FB is a rather mundane 1.54.
In short, I'm not too optimistic about his ability to maintain a sub 4.50 ERA.
2.04 BB/9 IP is better than decent in my book!
No offense, Sowers walked 20 in 88.1 IP - that is 2.04 BB/9 IP, better than decent in my book. In fact, Westbrook's BB/9 IP is 2.38 BB/9 IP (54 in 204.1 IP,) so I don't see a problem with Sowers' walk rate.
While Sowers' K rate has been down, there is a chance he could increase it some - he's only 23, and his K rate up through AA was above-average (he struck out 7.65 K/9 IP at AA, and an average 7.63 K/9 IP in the Minors.)
Keep in mind that Jamie Moyer only averaged 5.45 K/9 IP while in Seattle. Sowers' rate was only 3.57 K/9 IP in his rookie season, but as he learns more about the hitters up at the ML level and he learns more about how to attack them with his stuff, I think his K rate could go up to Moyer's level in time.
Plus, something that doesn't show up in Sowers' stats is how he studies hitters and learns what they are looking for, then attacks them with something else, much like Moyer has done throughout his career, so his repeating Moyer's success wouldn't be shocking to me. Don't write him off too quickly - he had all of 2-3 bad starts in his rookie season - that's not at all shabby, especially for someone who only throws 90-91 MPH max. with his fastball.
Take care and have a great day!
Indiansfan
Sowers won't be able to survive if his only above average ability is a 2-point-something BB/9.
digging a little deeper
A+: 9.46 K/9, 2.78 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
AA: 7.65 K/9, 2.08 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
giving up 13 long balls in 150 innings.
First exposure to AAA looked like this:
100 IP, 4.99 K/9, 1.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1 HR
then MLB:
88 IP, 3.6 K/9, 3.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10 HR
So yes, his K/9 trends downward as he rises through the system, but it may well have something to do with moving 4 levels in the space of about 20 months. And the jump in HRs from AAA (1/100 IP) to MLB (10/88 IP) may well be chalked up to rookie mistakes. His other numbers consistently outstanding.
A good comparison right now is Cliff Lee, who may have been a bit disappointing this year (4.46 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.7 K/9), but who is coming off a Cy-Young-vote-receiving 2005 season going 18-5, 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.4 K/9.
Looking back, Lee's strikeout rate has always been better than Sowers', but not that dramatically. He posted 8 K/9 at AA/AAA, 8.67 at AAA, but before 2005 his K/BB rate was about an even 2/1, and Sowers posted superior ERA/WHIP.
Also: guys like Moyer and Radke have built pretty solid careers with K/9s in the mid-5 range, ERAs around 4.25 and WHIPs at about 1.25-1.30.
One cannot tell anything just from number crunching, but Sowers could well increase his K/9 from 2006, and might be capable of sustaining a 3.5 - 4 ERA with low WHIP and low HRs. In other words, a quality # 3-4 starter for years to come.
Nice analysis; a few thoughts!
Nice analysis - well done! :-)
A few thoughts:
- I agree with you about the drop in the K rate; Sowers moved pretty quickly through the Indians' system - in total, he made all of 42 Minor League starts - that's just over 1 year for a ML starter (who would average about 30-35 starts a year.) He needs time to catch his breath, make some adjustments, and go from there, but being that's he only 23, I certainly think improvement in some of those ratios are possible.
- Regarding Cliff Lee, his velocity has dropped more into Sowers' range - that partly explains his disappointing season and why his K rate has dropped. He differs from Sowers also in that he never had Sowers' low BB rate, which is another reason why he struggled more this year - he wasn't able to get hitters to swing and miss at his pitches as much. Lee has always been more of a flyball pitcher as well; even though Sowers' groundball ratio isn't considered outstanding, he still gets more groundouts than Lee does.
- I agree with your assessment of Moyer and Radke - I see Sowers potentially being in that same mold.
- Yes, I see him being a quality #3-#4 starter - that's what I think the Indians will expect from him; if they can keep Sabathia as their #1, you add Adam Miller as your #2, then you have Sowers as either your #3 or #4, that's not a bad rotation.
Take care and have a great weekend!
thanks IndiansFan
I usually patrol the "Let's Go Tribe" blog under the DocNo monger, so we have already met.
Nice to talk with you again!
I didn't realize you were "DocNo," so I'll have to keep an eye out for you in the future. Nice to talk with you again! :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
Sowers' H/9 IP is better than Silva's, plus...
While you make a good point, keep in mind that Sowers' H/9 IP rate of 8.66 projected out in Silva's 188.1 IP in 2005 would have led to Sowers giving up 181-182 hits, considerably lower than Silva's 212 H. Also, Sowers' HR/9 IP rate of 1.02 projected out to Silva's 188.1 IP in 2005 would have led to Sowers yielding 21 HRs, lower than Silva's 25 HRs.
While I can understand Sowers needs to improve his K rate a bit, I believe he can for the reason I mentioned in my previous post. Don't forget - Moyer wasn't effective until he was 34; Sowers being only 23 has considerable time to hone his craft and improve his K/9 IP numbers to be more in line with his Minors numbers. His BB/9 IP rate could also improve if he hones his command, a possibility once Sowers learns the hitters more, learns how they are approaching him, and learns how to attack them better.
My main point is that Sowers has time to improve; like virtually all rookies, an adjustment period is understandable, but with Sowers' dedication and ability to understand hitters' approaches to him and what they are looking for, along with learning the hitters more and learning how to attack them better, I feel Sowers will make the necessary adjustments he needs to to be successful.
After all, he did have the lowest ERA among all AL starters from the All-Star Break up to his last start against KC (a start where he had 6 days rest, which may have thrown him off a bit in that game, giving up 7 H and 4 ER in 5 IP.) Plus, the Indians will probably slot him in the #3 or #4 slot (maybe even #5 if Byrd, Lee, and Westbrook all remain,) so I think Sowers will have some favorable matchups most times, especially early in the season, since he'll be matched up mostly with #3-#5s from other teams' rotations.
Therefore, I wouldn't put it past Sowers for him to become an above-average pitcher for many years; sure, he'll probably have to go through an adjustment period, but most rookies do. I think he'll make the adjustments necessary to thrive in the league. Only time will tell.
Take care and have a great weekend!
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