Derek Jeter Prospect Retro
Derek Jeter Prospect Retro
Derek Jeter was drafted in the first round in 1992, sixth overall, out of high school in Kalamazoo, Michigan. He was considered to be a fine defensive shortstop and a terrific overall athlete, likely to hit for average and show good glovework, though there was some uncertainty about how much power he would show with wood. He was sent to the Gulf Coast Rookie League after signing, and he did not do very well, hitting just .202/.290/.312 in 47 games. He did not make Baseball America's Gulf Coast League prospect list. The guys who did: Johnny Damon, Brandon Cromer, Edgar Renteria, Jim Pittsley, Jose Silva, Rafael Guerrero, Trey Beamon, Danny Clyburn, Jose Vidro, and Jason Kendall.
The Yankees remained high on him however, moving him up to Greensboro in the South Atlantic League for 1993. He did much better, hitting .295/.370/.394....he hit just 5 homers, but contributed 14 doubles, 11 triples, and 18 steals, with 56 walks against 95 strikeouts in 515 at-bats. He ranked 11th in the league in hitting, and impressed scouts and managers enough to be named the Number Two prospect in the Sally Circuit by BA.
He made 56 errors, but scouts thought that his reliability would improve with experience.
Jeter began 1994 with Class A Tampa, hitting .329/.380/.428 in 69 games. This earned him a promotion to Double-A, where he hit .377 in 34 games. He followed that up by hitting .349 in 35 games in Triple-A. Although he hit just five homers all season, he hit 27 doubles and 11 triples. He also made 25 errors, cutting his '93 rate in half. His plate discipline was excellent. Eddie Epstein gave him a Grade A in the 1995 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and rated him the Number Two prospect in baseball behind A-Rod.
Jeter spent almost all of 1995 in Triple-A, hitting .317/.394/.422 in 123 games. He hit just two homers, but 27 doubles and nine triples with 20 steals was good, and his MLE showed him as a .295 hitter at the major league level, excellent considering his age. I gave him a Grade A in the '96 book and rated him as the Number Four prospect in baseball, behind Johnny Damon, Paul Wilson, and Andruw Jones.
Jeter hit .314/.370/.430 with the Yankees in 1996, including 10 homers. He got progressively better as a hitter, developing substantial power to go with his speed and on-base abilities. His batting average and OBP development was exactly what you'd expect given his minor league record and age-relative-to-league factors. He developed a bit more home run power than you might expect, granted that the offensive context of the late 90s and early `00s helped in that department.
Comparable Players to Derek Jeter
Paul Molitor
Barry Larkin
Robin Yount
Alan Trammell
Bobby Doerr
Joe Cronin
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46 comments
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Hall Of Famer?
by samjjones on
Aug 25, 2006 3:11 PM EDT
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He has a chance at 3,000 hits
by OneHitWonder on
Aug 25, 2006 3:15 PM EDT
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Longevity
He'll always be known as a lesser hitter than ARod, of course, but compared to other HOF shortstops, Jeter will have the numbers to qualify.
by FunWithHeadlines on
Aug 25, 2006 4:07 PM EDT
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HOF
by yoda1 on
Aug 25, 2006 3:29 PM EDT
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Yoda is right
Yoda had a good take on this:
Jeter might be overrated playing for NY, but his consistency year-by-year (from above average to truly excellent), and his likely lengthy career, plus his intangibles (celebrity, rings, team, position), make him a clear HOFer.
by rmyawn on
Aug 26, 2006 4:47 AM EDT
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there were doubts about his defense
He's a hall-of-famer. Period.
by JoeSchlobotnik on
Aug 25, 2006 4:01 PM EDT
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Long Career?
by BlackOps on
Aug 25, 2006 4:11 PM EDT
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Come on
Pleeeeassseeee...He won't hit 300 into his 40s.
This does raise a good question, though: How many players hit 300 in their 40s and still qualified for the batting title?
by rmyawn on
Aug 26, 2006 4:48 AM EDT
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10
Sam Rice (40)---1930---.349
Johnny Cooney (40)---1941---.319
Luke Appling (40)---1947---.306
Luke Appling (41)---1948---.314
Luke Appling (42)---1949---.301
Stan Musial (41)---1962---.330
Pete Rose (40)---1981---.325
Paul Molitor (40)---1997---.305
Rickey Henderson (40)---1999---.315
by Anthony on
Aug 26, 2006 1:33 PM EDT
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Crystal Ball
by niallmack on
Aug 27, 2006 2:52 AM EDT
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Clarification
by drjayphd on
Aug 28, 2006 11:28 PM EDT
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Having one of his best seasons at age 32
by Brien Taylors Ligament on
Aug 25, 2006 4:30 PM EDT
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Jetes
I have a theory about Derek and his D. I think his supreme confidence has enabled him to suceed as much as he has, and especially in the postseason, but I think his D has suffered because of it. He has great tools, but I just don't think he ever learned to play SS properly. He reached the majors at 22 and did about as much as anyone possibly could at that age, but can you imagine someone then trying to tell Derek he is playing the position wrong and could do better? I doubt he would listen. For someone with a good arm like his, he should be playing deeper and getting more on his throws.
Anyway I live in NYC and see and hear about him all the time. I'm not a Yankees fan, but I'm not a hater either.
by elricsi on
Aug 25, 2006 4:42 PM EDT
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HOF
by JFP on
Aug 25, 2006 5:00 PM EDT
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Jeter
by abbreviatedman on
Aug 25, 2006 5:13 PM EDT
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There is 0 doubt in my mind
Defence metrics aren't very good yet, but all of them show Jeter to be a below average fielder throughout his career.
by wrightHOF on
Aug 25, 2006 5:21 PM EDT
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oy
As I've heard it said: If Carlos Guillen was put at SS for the Skanks in 1996 and could stay healthy his entire career, people would be proclaiming him the best player ever.Whoever said that was stupid.
Defence metrics aren't very good yet, but all of them show Jeter to be a below average fielder throughout his career.Yeah, I know, but still.
by Mean Dean on
Aug 25, 2006 5:51 PM EDT
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re
Carlos Guillen? Come on now. The same Guillen that has only hit double digits in homers twice in his career? The same Guillen that has only hit .300 over a full season twice in his career? The same Guillen that has reached double digits in steals only twice? Jeter's career OPS is more than 100 points higher than Guillen's too.... man, there are some serious Jeter haters on here. Hate him so much they are blinded by it.
by ScottAZ on
Aug 27, 2006 4:25 PM EDT
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Not as good as Larkin but still a Hall of Famer
by Mike Green on
Aug 25, 2006 5:38 PM EDT
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I Hate him but...
He's so overrated, which might hurt him (Writers are tired of the Yankees spanking off to him so they dont vote) but I agree he'll hit forever. I remember reading an article saying his career is identical to Pete Rose's through 31, its after 31 that Rose cranked it up and got alot of hits. We'll see what Jeter does after 31, but he'll get to 3000, it'll be interesting to see how much more than that though.
He's alot better than Larkin. Larkin only has 2340 hits, Jeter should get close to that after next year. Larkin never had a 200 hit season, Jeter has 4.
Nomar isn't making it either. He had 4 great years, but hasn't been healthy since. Plus he isn't even a SS anymore. Nomar also wasn't exactly the best defender. He made lots of errors. Nomar won't come close to the numbers to be a hall of fame player.
by jeromechef on
Aug 25, 2006 5:53 PM EDT
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Good analysis
good analysis: jeromechef
I like him, but I think you are right.
If Jeter is injured soon, he's likely to get credit for what he did in his brief career (like Kirby). If he isn't, he's like to put up numbers such as these:
BA: 305
Hits: 3,300
Runs: 1800+
RBIS: 1330
2B: 500+
3B: 70+
HR: 300
SB: 350?
Nomar won't make it. Larkin won't make it without the Vets committee.
Jeter's in.
by rmyawn on
Aug 26, 2006 4:57 AM EDT
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He's A HOFer
BTW, I was the one that requested this prospect retro. Yea me!
by yanksfan6129 on
Aug 25, 2006 5:59 PM EDT
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Jeter = Larkin with durability
by Anthony on
Aug 25, 2006 6:13 PM EDT
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Thoughts
- I think Larkin would have had a lot more homers had he not been injured and had those injuries not taken a substantial toll on his legs.
- Jeter is quite possibly one of the most overrated players of all time - and that's saying something because he is a damn good player and a lock for the Hall.
- Nomar is going to have to do some very big things to get a chance at the Hall. By that I mean, he's going to have to put up a few seasons better than the one he's putting up right now - and that seems highly unlikely.
- I echo the above thoughts that he'll just keep hitting - his durability is incredible. I've got no doubt that he'll get 3,000 hits and there's a good chance that he'll push 3,500.
- I can't stand the guy.
by Nolan on
Aug 25, 2006 6:30 PM EDT
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Jeter ...uhhhhh
He is so smoooth that it is almost sickeningly sweet yet he is so smooth when he's hitting too. Yes, he benefits from being on the Yankees, though that's not his fault. His stats are ridiculous except he does not have the outrageous SS power of an AROD or Tejeda.
To me he seems to be a throwback to the very best of shortstops back in the day, except better than almost all of them.
by stjp5 on
Aug 25, 2006 7:52 PM EDT
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I like this one, too
Jeter made the best defensive play in the playoffs I've ever seen (the assist on Giambi). Jeter also made the best baserunning play I've ever seen in the playoffs (although I didn't see Enos Slaughter play), when he ran to third after seeing no one covering.
I'm a stats guy, but I believe Jeter has some real intangibles.
by rmyawn on
Aug 26, 2006 5:03 AM EDT
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Love all
He is one of the most consistant hitters over the last decade. He has great on base ability, great contact ability, is a great baserunner, and has a knack for making the big play in big spots.
Sure, he doesn't have a ton of power or great range at SS, but he makes the plays anyway. If he had those 2 things going for him, he probably would be the greatest baseball player of all time. But he doesn't, so the jealous types like to point it out.
You can point to the few negatives all you want, but he is still a first ballot HOFer and still probably better than your favorite active player as far as career stats when it is all said and done.
by TCapone30 on
Aug 25, 2006 8:58 PM EDT
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Yeah, I think this has been said
"Anyone who denies that pretty much doesn't know a thing about baseball."
The guys who called him overrated still called him a HOFer.
"*Sure, he doesn't have a ton of power or great range at SS**, but he makes the plays anyway. If he had those 2 things going for him, he probably would be the greatest baseball player of all time. But he doesn't, so the jealous types like to point it out. "
You pointed it out...
Everyone agrees he's a HOFer. The question is whether he's merely a first ballot guy, or one of the top 10 guys of all time. He'll have to play at the same level until he's 41 to be considered for that category.
But he's still my favorite player, just as Cal was....
by rmyawn on
Aug 26, 2006 5:08 AM EDT
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Pujols and Ichiro
And Jeter is my favorite player.
by jscape2000 on
Aug 27, 2006 9:34 PM EDT
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really
AROD and Barry, just to start with the most obvious ones.
by rcobeen on
Aug 25, 2006 9:45 PM EDT
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Come on
by OneHitWonder on
Aug 26, 2006 4:05 PM EDT
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"Who is he rated over that he shouldn't be?
A-Rod. The Yankee fans have, this year, shown why they are amongst the worst in baseball: they've bought into this national campaign against A-Rod that is just plain stupid. If you took a poll, I've got no doubt that most Yankee fans would say that, if they had to choose, they rather keep Jeter. Pathetic. Also: When A-Rod came over to NY he should have immediately been installed at SS. Why? Because he was better. Why didn't it happen? Politics.
Giambi. He's been better than Jeter almost every year for the past 5-7 years.
Sheffield. Not this year, obviously, but definitely over the course of his career.
by Nolan on
Aug 26, 2006 12:14 AM EDT
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Pleeeaaaseeee
Nolan:
You were making sense previously....but you had to keep going...
Arod is better.
Giambi is a 1st baseman. A bad one. He may be better, as you say, but it's certainly not clear.
Sheff has lots of issues. I mean, statistically, he might be better. But do you really think that a guy who admits to purposively making errors so he would get traded is going to be a better teammate than Jeter?
Consider this:
"I know who the leader is on the team. I ain't going to say who it is, but I know who it is. I know who the team feeds off. I know who the opposing team comes in knowing they have to defend to stop the Yankees."
--Yankees right fielder Gary Sheffield (New York Daily News)
"Why shouldn't I tell the truth? I ain't trying to get no Pepsi commercial."
--Sheffield
"It's not a family-oriented team. In L.A., wives can fly on the plane; with the Yankees they can't. With other teams, the wives always have functions to bring them together. Not here."
--Sheffield
It was my first choice to come here. I made a lot of concessions to come here, and I'll make it very clear; If I have to go somewhere else, a lot of things are going to have to be changed or you're going to have an unhappy player."
--Yankees outfielder Gary Sheffield, on recent rumors involving him being dealt awayfrom the Yankees (MLB.com)
"I'll ask for everything. Period. You want to inconvenience me, I'm going to inconvenience every situation there is. The only reason I'm playing is that I wanted to play for the Yankees. If I don't get that opportunity, things change."
--Sheffield
"I allowed them to defer money that no player has ever done, to try to prove to people that it isn't about the money. How many people that are my caliber as a player would have done what I did? There are players on this team making the kind of money they're making and they didn't defer anything. I look at the whole scenario. I sacrificed, and now you're putting me in a [compromising] position, we're both going to be uncomfortable."
--Sheffield
"You all think you all know what I'm going to do, and you all don't. Nobody knows. That's the mystique of me."
--Yankees outfielder Gary Sheffield, on ostensibly losing his job to Bobby Abreu, and welcoming him to the team with a hug (South Florida Sun-Sentinel)
"Wearing this uniform I won't be happy...
"I would never sit out. I'd go play, but that doesn't mean I'll be happy playing. If I'm not happy, you don't want me on your team. It's that simple. I'll make that known to anybody."
--Sheffield
by rmyawn on
Aug 26, 2006 5:21 AM EDT
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Had to chime in
by jscape2000 on
Aug 26, 2006 9:51 AM EDT
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Spoken like someone
by OneHitWonder on
Aug 26, 2006 4:09 PM EDT
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I don't think Jeter is worthy...
by Havok1517 on
Aug 26, 2006 1:19 AM EDT
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Larkin vs. Jeter smackdown
Larkin ended up playing until he was 40, and had a number of good seasons after age 32. We will see how Jeter does.
by Mike Green on
Aug 26, 2006 12:51 PM EDT
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Larkin
Jeter is averaging about 600+ AB and 150+ games per season.
Larkin's career Rate is 103. Jeter's is 93 (though both 2005 and 2006 have been over 100, so it looks like he's improving, but not enough to ever get his career Rate up to 100).
by sabernar on
Aug 26, 2006 4:08 PM EDT
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oh yeah...
Larkin career OPS: .815
by sabernar on
Aug 26, 2006 4:09 PM EDT
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That's misleading
- Jeter plays in a higher offensive era than Larkin.
- Larkin did that from age 22 to 40. Jeter is just 32 now. Let's see what Jeter's OPS is when he's 40.
by Anthony on
Aug 26, 2006 7:31 PM EDT
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so the higer offensive era...
So let's look at EqR (adjusted runs adjusted for all time) through the age of 32. For those of you who don't know, EqR is a cumulative stat.
Through the age of 32, Jeter has an EqR of 1156.
Through the age of 32, Larkin had an EqR of 867.
I can also use BRAR (batting runs above repalcement:
Through the age of 32, Jeter has a BRAR of 558.
Through the age of 32, Larkin had a BRAR of 408.
Both Jeter and Larkin started their careers at approximately the same age, so those numbers are pretty good. When Larkin was playing, he was a very good shortstop, but considering how much time he missed (about 1/3 of his career) due to injury, there is no way he can be ranked anywhere close to Jeter in career accomplishments.
by sabernar on
Aug 26, 2006 8:25 PM EDT
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Totally missed the point
And if you'd look back through the thread, you'd see that I myself wrote earlier, "Combine Larkin's bat with 150+ games every year makes Jeter wildly valuable."
by Anthony on
Aug 27, 2006 1:16 AM EDT
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Larking was really good
This is a stupid argument.
by Brien Taylors Ligament on
Aug 28, 2006 10:02 AM EDT
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