Is There Hope For Oliver Perez?

by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2006 4:58 PM EDT in News Comment 27 comments

Is There Any Hope for Oliver Perez?

On February 28, 2005, we did a Young Pitcher Symposium for Oliver Perez. We pointed out several comparable pitchers to Perez based on his 2004 season. If you'll remember, Perez was one of the best young pitchers in the game in '04, going 12-10, 2.98, with 239 strikeouts in 196 innings and just 145 hits allowed. He walked 81, and there were concerns about his durability and workload. But his talent was undeniable.

Fast forward a year and a half, and what do we find? Perez was erratic in '05, and has been downright terrible this year. Even after getting sent back to Triple-A, he's had problems. Right-handed hitters are slugging .537 against him in the minors this season. Although he doesn't throw quite as hard as he did a couple of years ago, his velocity is still above average. However, mechanical problems have hurt his command, and his confidence seems to have taken a major step backwards.

Getting out of Pittsburgh and to a new organization may help. . .the Mets are certainly better-equipped to provide him with offensive and defensive support, although the Big Apple isn't the easiest place to mount a career comeback. He doesn't turn 25 until August 15, and given his performance in '04 it is certainly too early to give up on him. But I do want to sound a note of caution here.

I mentioned the list of comparable pitchers that was generated early in '05 based on his '04 numbers. Note that while Sandy Koufax shows up on the list, so did Baylor Moore, Pete Falcone, and Juan Nieves, young lefties with power arms who never lived up to their potential. And this was evident even before his struggles last year and this year.

In short, the answer is, Yes, there is Hope for Oliver Perez. But it is not a sure thing by any means. Perhaps that's not a surprising or insightful answer, but it is an honest one. What do you guys think?

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General question...

This is not just about Perez, but I'm wondering why the notion that lefties develop later is thrown out the window whenever they have a good/great start, but then struggle afterward? Obviously there's no easy answer, which is why the game is so hard I guess. Still though, interesting to ponder IMO...

Having said that, I agree with John, and I don't think it's a cop-out at all. I don't have the marbles to go out on a limb in regard to Perez' future either, and I doubt too many Baseball people do as well. He's the kind of talent that can make or break a scouts career...

by MetfanBren on Aug 15, 2006 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think its fair to point out

that Perez has had some injuries that have effected his mechanics and I believe his performance. Maybe Peterson can help him? I hope so.

by Havok1517 on Aug 15, 2006 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There are

More pitchers like Ollie who have great stuff and fail miserably than ones that succeed.

Ollie has exactly two things going for him right now:

Youth. If he learns how to pitch with his diminishing skills, then he can still become a decent MLB pitcher.
Change of scenary. You'd have to figure that Pirates system is not the most ideal place for young talent to flourish. How many home grown prospects have they turned out?

My best guess is that Ollie will continue to tease us with the phenomenal year he put together in 04 but never come really close to it.

by yoda1 on Aug 15, 2006 7:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ollie

John, thanks for taking my suggestion and doing this segment. I'm really curious to see people's thoughts on Perez.

Perez has been one of my favorite young pitchers. His stuff is (was?) great, and his enthusiam and youthful exuberance is always fun to watch on the mound, even though those same emotions sometimes get the best of him. There's something incredibly compelling to me about a kid like Ollie--terrific potential, and it's just a matter of whether he can harness that talent and stay within himself enough to produce. In some ways, it reminds me of the issues Elijah Dukes has, though in a totally different context. These sorts of battles rage within each of us, and it's one of the most fascinating things for me to watch on a baseball diamond. After all, these prospects are, at the end of the day, just flesh and blood. Watching them succeed or fail teaches us about ourselves too.

OK, enough philosphical shoe-gazing. On to the question, "Is There Any Hope For Oliver Perez?" I think that there's always hope for a lefty who throws hard and has good breaking stuff like Ollie does. Spending time with Peterson (and hopefully learning a little about how to control the outside corner from Glavine) will do wonders for him.

Part of Perez's problem is that he's lost that settling influence from behind the plate. Sure, you'd like for a kid to be able to keep his emotions in check, but failing that a veteran catcher could really help him. A pitching coach can only do so much; they can only come out once an inning. I don't think it's a coincidence that Ollie struggled after Kendall was dealt to Oakland.

I'm already going to peg Perez as a sleeper for 2007.

by Yakker on Aug 15, 2006 7:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perez

I read a quote from Roberto Hernandez (a teammate of his last year on the Pirates and veteran reliever) about him recently, and he said that the Pirates tried to turn him into more of a finesse pitcher, which had a negative impact on his command. I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but it might be something to keep in mind.

by southboundpachyderm on Aug 15, 2006 7:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Velocity

Ollie's velocity was down 5-7 MPH. Did they really have a choice?

by Emad on Aug 15, 2006 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My guess

He is moved to the bullpen, gains consistency by only working from the stretch, and becomes a good short reliever.

by irwin on Aug 15, 2006 7:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re

Is his velocity still above average? I read that his fastball was sitting at 87 in most games. Though that was early in the season, iirc (late May maybe.)

Unless he magically gets that velocity back, I don't like him as anything but a LOOGY (he's lucky he's left handed.) Too much stuff going on in his delivery to maintain consistency.

by bootsy on Aug 15, 2006 9:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not true

Most of the footage on MLB.com shows him around 91-93.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Aug 15, 2006 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

95

I have a report that he was back up to 95 in the minors.

by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2006 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Velocity

The problem, apparently, is that on a given night, he can be anywhere from 84 to 94. On nights where he's 94, he's very good. On nights where he's 84, he gets killed. There is very little consistency in this regard.

by Emad on Aug 15, 2006 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

If so, this is intriguing. Has it been back up there consistently John? And did this start when he came to the Mets?

by Screech on Aug 15, 2006 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

before the trade

It was a start before the trade, he was at 92-95 for Indianapolis in at least one start.

by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2006 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is this a consistent 95?

by Screech on Aug 15, 2006 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Consistency

I believe John. But how can he get lit up by AAA hitters sitting 93 with a devastating slider? I understand his command might not be there, but AAA hitters shouldn't be able to carpet bomb stuff like that, even with poor command. Unless, of course, he's just lobbing it in there.

In the first two games at Norfolk, people I trust told me he was at 82-83. I don't know what to believe. All I can say is that the kid is an enigma wrapped in a mystery.

Ollie clearly isn't hurt, but the position of his arm and leg aren't as pronounced as they used to be. That is, his arm isn't extended as far back as it used to during windup. The position of his leg is also closer to his body and less extended. Don't know what this means, but call it an amateur observation.

by Emad on Aug 16, 2006 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Mets should call him up.

If all this is just mechanical, then the great Rick Peterson should be able to solve this. The Mets have nothing to play for and Pedro is hurt. Give Petey some more time off to get him geared for October and let Perez get a few starts with the big club, and some time to work with 10 Minute Rick.

by Screech on Aug 16, 2006 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree... But

they should stick him in the bullpen and have Peterson work with him. They should give him the treatment method given to Jorge Julio early in the year when he really struggled and let him appear only in garbage innings (losing or winning by 5 or more runs) When he has some successful outings and gain more confidence, then they can give him a start or two to prepare for 2007...

I still believe in his potential shown in 2004 and I hope he comes back strong...

by louief1 on Aug 16, 2006 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also after the trade

according to a forum post from someone who was at the game, he was low to mid 90's in his last start, didn't hit 97 like he used to, but threw 6 innings with 7k's, and 1 walk and 1 run

by andwoo on Aug 16, 2006 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No problem, with a sharp slider

If he can regain that sharp slider, 94-95 is more than enough to make him lethal again.

by Screech on Aug 16, 2006 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

daniel cabrera vs oliver perez

does cabrera have any more hope than oliver perez does to turn it around?

by krgrecw on Aug 15, 2006 11:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is this a serious question?

Cabrera hasn't lost any of his stuff, he's just learning to harness it. I guess I could see how the longer it goes on, the more doubts arise, but anyone can have a rough season.

No one's saying DCab has lost 5-7 mph off his fastball, like they're saying about Perez.

by Flynn Blake on Aug 16, 2006 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The future is wide open for Tom Petty. Is it for O

On the plus side, Perez can only mature with age. He's made poor choices at various junctures of his career, including failing to keep his arm in shape before the 2005 season and kicking the laundry cart in St. Louis. Perez needs velocity or command, and he's shown neither on a consistent basis in 2006. His control is not good enough to get by throwing in the upper 80's. When he made mistakes in the mid-90's, he could get away with more mistakes -- and he did. Also, the arm slot for his slider seems to have changed in the last two years. Perhaps New York can correct this. When he's going good, he has a biting slider. More often than not, it's been flat and unimpressive. As far as catchers go, the Pirates used fellow Mexican and Spanish-speaking Humberto Cota as his personal catcher until the second month of this year. Young lefthanded pitching is one of the few areas the Pirates have depth at, and so trading Cota for the Littlefield-coveted Xavier Nady made sense to him. Perez had an electric arm and was a true drawing card in 2004. I haven't seen even a glimmer of hope that he might regain his short-lived former greatness. I hope he does, but he won't do it without finding his velocity and his confidence.

by Candymanfan on Aug 16, 2006 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Balor Moore Comp

When Balor Moore came up in 72, he was lights ouy. He was still effective in 73...but his career took a different path...by the time he made it back to the bigs with the Jays he was a completely different pitcher(at least stat wise) does anyone remember what happened to him...injuries? look at his first year in pro ball-amazing

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/balor-moore.shtml

by gashousegang on Aug 16, 2006 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mets: QUIT TRYING TO FIX HIS COMMAND!

I think his command has always been awful, his stuff just allowed him to get away with it for a year in 2004. I think that is the only way he will be effective. Let him go out and throw his best stuff and he can stay effectively wild. As soon as they started trying to get him to refine his command he started struggling. He will gain command of his stuff as he ages just by having more and more experience.

I feel like he will have stretches where he is one of the best pitchers in baseball sporadically mixed with awful stretches. I wouldnt put it past him to have some years that are dominant just because he manages to keep hot all year and other years like this and last year. I also think the dominant stretches will be longer if they just let him throw his best stuff.

I think if a team lets him grow into his command he could be a consistantly dominant starter, if they try to make him fix his command now than he will always be inconsistant. He wont be the pitcher he can be.

I would really like to think there is hope for him. I was and am a huge fan and was when he was a Padre. I was really hoping the Tigers would have been able to get him thrown in with Casey instead of him getting sent to the Mets. I think that Perez could end up being a fantastic pitcher still. In 2004 he just made hitters look really bad facing him.

I think his stuff is some of the best overall in baseball if he gets his fastball back to 93-95 even. If he could get it back to high 90s he'd be untouchable again.

Side note: I wrote this email with the last two paragraphs only at first and as I typed the third(the one that became the first now) I changed the focus of the message, so if there is no flow and the overall message seems awful, just disregard that and read the beginning.

by grozzy on Aug 17, 2006 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Command

Interesting suggestion. Would you do the same thing with Daniel Cabrera?

by Yakker on Aug 17, 2006 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldnt....

... necessarily because Cabrera hasnt had success with his stuff even though it is terrific stuff. Until he shows that he can at least be effectively wild than he still needs some control work. If control work isnt working though it could be worth a try

by grozzy on Aug 17, 2006 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs