Is There Any Hope For Eric Duncan?

by John Sickels on Aug 1, 2006 3:43 PM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

Eric Duncan was drafted by the Yankees in the first round in 2003, out of high school in West Orange, New Jersey. His lefthanded power bat was well-regarded by scouts, although there were mixed opinions about his ability to remain at third base in the long run. He had a successful rookie debut, then an adequate season in 2004 split between the Midwest League and the Florida State League. Last year he was pushed to Double-A, where at 20 he was one of the youngest players at that level. He did not do well, knocking 19 homers but hitting just .235 and striking out 136 times in 126 games.

This year the Yankees started him off in Triple-A, and he was even less effective, hitting .209/.279/.255 in 31 games for Columbus. He was sent back to Double-A Trenton in early June and has done better, hitting .266/.363/.532 with 10 homers. Nevertheless, overall he's been something of a disappointment given his high draft status and lofty expectations. He has had a lot of problems with breaking pitches. Is there hope for him?

Absolutely.

Duncan is still just 21 years old.
His strike zone judgment since being sent back to Double-A has improved greatly. His BB/K ratio for Trenton this year is 25/28 in 173 at-bats, compared to 59/136 in 451 at-bats last year. He has increased his walk rate slightly, but cut his strikeout rate almost in half compared to last season.
If Duncan had gone to college, 2006 would have been his draft season. A player jumping from college ball to Double-A and hitting .266/.363/.532 in his first try would be considered an excellent prospect.

Duncan has suffered from being rushed, and there's no guarantee that he will pan out in the way originally envisioned. But give up on him? It is way too early for that. I doubt he'll ever hit for a great batting average, but his power potential remains very intriguing.

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His back was bothering him a LOT early in the year, when he was at AAA. He spent time on the DL, I think and now that he's fully recovered, he's showing it at AA.

I agree that it's too early to give up on him.

by 12to6 on Aug 1, 2006 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

He's only 21, so he's not old for a prospect

Let's Go Yankees.

by yanksfan6129 on Aug 1, 2006 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here he is...

Eric Duncan

by El Diablo on Aug 1, 2006 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Age

Right now is arguably the first time in his career where he hasn't been too young for his level.

At least he seems to be recovering, whereas the Yankees threw Drew Henson into AAA before he was ready and he seemed to post 3 straight .235-18-60 seasons in a row, showing no signs of growth

by Johnny Ruin on Aug 1, 2006 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eric Duncan

I would like to see him in Double-A another year. The Yankees were unwise to thrust him into Columbus when he was struggling in Trenton. With Abreu, Matsui, Damon and Sheffield, they don't require Duncan yet.

Landon Powell: Catcher in A's chain, great prospect... Alec Zumwalt: Pitcher in D-Rays chain, great prospect...

by elster39 on Aug 1, 2006 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Certainly still hope...

But (and this is probably going to be unpopular.......), the fact that he's repeating the league is a huge, blaring red flag. I understand he was young the first time around, and hurt, and rushed, and all that, but it seems very frequent that guys are brought back down to repeat the level and tear it up, even appearing to "make a breakthrough" and make real progress (improving walks and strikeouts for sure), and then fall apart again when promoted. Also, it's about 170 ABs, so he might just be "hot."

I think he's certainly improved, and I think he'll at least have some sort of career (I wasn't convinced last year), but it'll most likely come as a Russ Branyan style pinch-TTO slugger.

by delomir on Aug 1, 2006 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I give you...

...Chase Utley.

I thought the same thing about him, as he spent basically two full years and part of a third in AAA, not putting up particularly good numbers until his second year. In his defense, he skipped AA, but on the other hand, he was 23 in his first year at AAA, three years older than Duncan in his first stab at AA.

by phatj on Aug 2, 2006 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've got four words for you

Eric Duncan, male prostitute.

by StickRat on Aug 1, 2006 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

need more info

That's not very informative. Will he be a high end prostitute for the rich gay businessman, or will he be the guy in the bathhouse charging 10 bucks a pop?

by donniebaseballman on Aug 1, 2006 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about

Matt Damon impersonator?

"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on Aug 2, 2006 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More like ...

The Jodie Foster character in Taxi Driver.

by StickRat on Aug 2, 2006 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

One of the things that surprises me is that Duncan is still very young for his league. In fact, out of the 108 or so regular offensive players in the league, Duncan is the third youngest:

Duncan: 21 (1B) (12-14): 266/363.532
Carlos Gomez 20 (OF) (12-04) (mets): 280/340/430
Matt Moses 20 (SS) (2-20) (New Britain) 253/300/392

The numbers separated by dashes are their birthdates. So, Duncan is about year older than Gomez and about 14 mos older than Moses, but otherwise, there are 105 regular offensive players in the Eastern League who are older than he is.

Furthermore, Duncan has the fourth best OPS in the Eastern League. The other three are 26, 24, and 23.

I'm not saying he's a top fifty prospect, but his age and performance relative to the league is excellent.

by rmyawn on Aug 1, 2006 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Moses

Plays @ 3b.

by El Diablo on Aug 1, 2006 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan/Moses

Thanks for the update. On the roster they have him as a SS, but they are often outdated. Thanks for the new info.

by rmyawn on Aug 1, 2006 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're not saying he's a top fifty prospect...

I think he is though. He's incredibly young and has good position versatility, plus he's showing excellent discipline and not striking out too much.

by limozeen on Aug 4, 2006 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why rushing a prospect is a bad idea

And why exactly ARE the Yankees rushing him? They have A-Rod at third.

by Tcs5384 on Aug 2, 2006 3:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

First

They've moved him to first base, have they not? Not 100% sure on that.

Waiting for Travis Buck

by Furious George on Aug 2, 2006 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

Yes, Duncan is at first. The previous poster was saying that Moses was now at 3B. I had previously mentioned Moses because I had him listed at SS.

by rmyawn on Aug 2, 2006 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: college

If Duncan had gone to college, 2006 would have been his draft season. A player jumping from college ball to Double-A and hitting .266/.363/.532 in his first try would be considered an excellent prospect.

How on earth do you take for granted that if he went to college then straight to AA he would be hitting .266/.363/.532 right now?

by im not new on Aug 2, 2006 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs