Top 20 Giants PRESEASON Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Jun 28, 2006 3:26 PM EDT in News

Top 20 Giants PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This is the PRE-SEASON list. That means it was generated BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED and that the grades were PRE-SEASON. Anyone complaining about the grades based on 2006 performance will be smacked up the side of the head with a Jeff Urban autographed baseball.

1) Matt Cain, RHP, Grade A-
6-6, 5.20 in 14 starts for the Giants, 67/40 K/BB in 98 innings, 98 hits allowed. Erratic, but promising, has dominated at times but control problems have limited his success. This is to be expected. If he stays healthy in the long run, I expect his command will come around.

2) Marcus Sanders, 2B, B+
Hitting just .213/.302/.265 in 54 games for San Jose in the Cal League. He's stolen 24 bases in 29 attempts, and he's drawn 25 walks in 211 at-bats, but there's been no power development and his numbers are off across the board. Very disappointing; I thought he was a breakthrough candidate.

3) Merkin Valdez, RHP, B+
6.04 ERA in 28 innings in the PCL for Fresno, with a 29/21 K/BB and 30 hits allowed. I have a report that his mechanics are out of whack, and that certainly fits with the control problems evident in the numbers. I have kept the faith a long time with this one, but he appears to be stagnating and has made no progress refining his natural talent.

4) Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, B+
Hitting .272/.324/.446 in 27 games for Double-A Connecticut before hurting his shoulder. Expected to miss the rest of the season following surgery in June.

5) Travis Ishikawa, 1B, B
Hit .253/.326/.435 in 49 games for Connecticut before being promoted to the majors. Has gone 7-for-24 (.292) in major league action, with three doubles and a triple. I'm not sure what to think here. He has pop and scouts like him but his production just doesn't stand out.

6) Nate Schierholtz, OF, B
Hitting just .221/.283/.336 in 65 games for Connecticut. Another young hitter being undone by the Eastern League this year, although his shaky plate discipline doesn't help.

7) Jonathan Sanchez, LHP, B
1.15 ERA in 31 innings for Connecticut, with a 46/9 K/BB and just 14 hits allowed. Having a sharp season out of the bullpen (2 saves) but has also started three games.

8) Kevin Frandsen, 3B, B
Hit .314/.381/.471 in 34 games for Fresno, then has gone 13-for-58 (.224) in major league action with one double. I think he'll hit for average in time but I don't expect huge amounts of power.

9) Dan Griffin, RHP, B-
3.65 ERA in 14 starts for Class A Augusta, 72/28 K/BB in 67 innings. Having a fair year but not spectacular.

10) Pablo Sandoval, 3B, B-
Hitting .256/.324/.335 in 61 games for Augusta. Not much to be excited about....not much power, mediocre on-base skills, just one steal. Not living up to the high-batting-average potential he showed in short-season ball.

11) Shairon Martis, RHP, B-
4.08 ERA in 10 starts for Augusta, 44/11 K/BB in 46 innings, 52 hits allowed. Showing good command, has given up just one homer, but too hittable right now. Remains projectable and promising.

12) Freddy Lewis, OF, C+
Hitting .269/.389/.470 with 10 steals for Triple-A Fresno. Doing pretty well, has 48 walks boosting his OBP, showing a touch of power.

13) Waldis Joaquin, RHP, C+
Hasn't pitched this year.

14) Ben Copeland, OF, C+
Hitting .275/.350/.397 with 14 steals, 36 walks, 53 strikeouts in 295 at-bats for Augusta. Some gap power with 16 doubles and 7 triples, but just 2 homers. Walk rate OK, needs to improve steal percentage (has been caught 11 times). Not overly impressive numbers from a college guy in the Sally League.

15) Jeremy Accardo, RHP, C+
4.35 ERA in 27 games out of the Giants bullpen, with a 32/9 K/BB in 31 innings. His ERA will come down if he maintains his current component ratios. . .he's given up just 27 hits and zero homers. A successful campaign.

16) Jon Coutlangus, LHP, C+
Claimed on waivers by Cincinnati. Currently has a 2.09 ERA and 36/17 K/BB in 39 innings for Double-A Chattanooga. Having a fine season and could contribute in the bullpen soon if his command improves a bit.

17) Dan Ortmeier, OF, C+
Hitting .246/.299/.392 in 61 games for Fresno, also 3-for-12 (.250) in major league action. Numbers in Triple-A are not impressive at all. Looks like he will slot best as a reserve outfielder.

18) Brian Horwitz, OF, C+
Hitting a combined .297/.384/.387 between San Jose (56 games), Connecticut (15 games) and Fresno (5 games). Should hit for average and make contact, draws walks, but power potential remains limited.

19) Brian Wilson, RHP, C+
3.80 ERA in 20 games for Fresno, with a 25/10 K/BB in 21 innings. Has posted a 4.26 ERA in six major league games. Look like a bullpen contributor.

20) Ben Nieto, LHP, C+
Posted a 12.27 ERA in 15 innings for Augusta, allowing 27 hits and 21 runs although his K/BB was good at 16/5. Sample too small to be truly meaningful, although he certainly had his head handed to him.

Comment:
What is up with Marcus Sanders? I really thought he would break through this year.
I really don't see a lot to get excited about here. EME's injury is disappointing. I still think Cain will pan out but he does have to improve his command. Valdez is slipping, and several of the hitters are having major adjustment troubles. On the other hand, there is material here to build a decent bullpen corps with Accardo, Sanchez, and Wilson.

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Comments

Curious

What is up with Todd Linden? He ripped up AAA last year, did nothing upon his call-up and doesn't seem to be doing much or I haven't seen his name. Is he one of the AAAA guys? He seems to be struggling Fresno this year too. Did he have an injury? Just a guy I liked that has seemed to fade away fast.

by slickwdb on Jun 28, 2006 3:55 PM EDT reply actions

AAAA

He sure looks like he is a AAAA player - but he should get another shot next year with Bonds and Alou presumably gone. Plus, he might be old enough for Sabean to consider relying on him.

When with the Giants, it seemed like he alternated between taking first pitch fastballs down the middle and swinging a first pitch breaking balls in the dirt. He occaisionally took strange routes to flyballs [earning him the nickname Magellan], but according to statistics he was an above average OF. He also seems rather streaky, though I have no way of quantifying that.

I suspect he would get an abnormal boost from playing in Coors, as it would mask many of his deficiencies.

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Jun 28, 2006 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Linden

I recall when he bitched about the Giants earlier this season, Felipe bitch-slapped him back with a retort that he has to be healthy to be brought up. If my memory is right, then he was fighting some sort of injury early on that held him back.

He could be a AAAA guy, but Feliz, who also hit about 30 HR in AAA, also struggled mightily his first few years in the majors before finally breaking out had contributing something. However, Giants history is full of AAA hitters who hit homers by the buschel full but was unable to come up and do anything: Lancellotti, JR Philips, Minor.

Hopefully the Giants will keep him around for next year when he could get a big shot at taking a spot on the roster, whether as starter or bench, and if Alou is still around as manager, he'll probably get his chances.

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jul 17, 2006 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

jonathan sanchez

anyone have any information as to what he throws?

by overlord on Jun 28, 2006 4:40 PM EDT reply actions

re

88-94 fastball [usually 90-92] - but it seems to be faster than that, similar to El Sid.

Low 80's big sweeping curve/slider.

low - mid 80's change.

He needs to work on command, especially from the stretch. Personally, I would rather see him starting in the minors than pitching for the big club.

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Jun 28, 2006 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

good info

thanks.

by overlord on Jun 28, 2006 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Marcus Sanders

I dont think we should be that suprised by Sanders struggles. While his rate stats looked good last year, he was a speed player with little power and that type of player needs to make consistent contact, Sanders did not. He struckout in over 20% of his AB's from last year and is doing the same this year, I would think that's OK if your hitting homeruns but speed players need to have that number closer to 10% to hit for average if they have little power. I dont think Sanders will pan out unless he (a) lowers his strikout rate considerably or (b) finds the ability to hit for power.

by sanchez101 on Jun 28, 2006 5:29 PM EDT reply actions

RE: Sanders' Shoulder

For the first couple months last year he it with decent power, but it tailed off as the condition of his shoulder worsened. This winter, he had off-season surgery to correct a surgery he had in high school to tighten his shoulder up. He may be still adjusting to his "new" shoulder, gaining strength, and making up for lost work in the offseason. From the little I have seen him hit, I wouldn't say that he is a slappy hitter who relies on his speed to get hits. [But he is rail thin and blazing fast]. Also, SJ Muni is a pretty brutal place to hit.

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Jun 28, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

re

I saw Sanders play in the AZL a few years back and he had surprising power for such a little guy (probably was 160 pounds). I saw him play a handful of times that summer and saw him hit an oppo homer, one to center, and another 2-3 balls that short hopped the fence. This was all in his first summer as a pro and his first taste of wood bats.

If he doesn't have power it must have been sapped by the shoulder injury because there is no other reason for his power numbers to actually regress.

by ScottAZ on Jun 29, 2006 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Sanders and his shoulder

I'm no doctor but it sounds like his shoulder hasn't recovered fully from the surgery yet, anyone (DrB?) knows what the recovery period for that is?

But I would think that he would not be able to work out that shoulder for a couple of months, at least, right after the surgery (Morris also had shoulder surgery pre-2005 season and I read that it prescribed no/very minimal exercise at all for about 6-8 weeks), which means that his shoulder muscle tone regressed a lot during that time. And if he was already having shoulder problems that season since around May, he might not have been working it out for a while longer than that, meaning that it is even more weaker and starting from a lower point, in terms of fitness, from which he needs to recover from.

Given this, if I followed everything right, I wouldn't worry too much about his power until next season when he has had a full off-season to recover and build up his strength again. Particularly given the report (thanks, good to know) that he was hitting for power in the AZL, you don't have to be a muscle-bound freak to hit for power, Aaron's power all came from his wrists, from what I read, so maybe his shoulder problems affected the way he could turn his wrists when batting. Particularly since he's still only 20 years old, and just 21 next year.

Looking at his current stats, the difference between last year and this appears be bad luck and good luck. His BABIP last season was abnormally high at .372 but abnormally low at .267 this season. Supporting that he hasn't really regressed much as a hitter, his contact rate is about the same, 78.6% last season, 79.7% this season, so it improved slightly, where 80% is about average and 85% is considered good. However, he is taking less walks this season, 59% of his strikeouts vs. 77% last season. But his split stats shows a good month in May in terms of taking walks sandwiched by two bad months, but it looks like he might have been out injured for about 8-10 games (based on lower AB), so maybe he was improving in May when he got injured, which pulled his stats down in June (got data from First Inning so maybe the data is just not updated for June yet, in which case forget about the injury speculation).

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jul 17, 2006 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Nick Pereira

I know he isn't on the list but what does anyone know about Nick?

His stats looked good in A Ball, then he got skipped to AAA and it looks like he has struggled in his first 2 starts.

Thanks,

by kienast on Jun 28, 2006 9:18 PM EDT reply actions

Awful

Just an awful year for the Giants farm system. Almost all of the top 30 prospects are regressing or just plain disintitrating.

As for Sanders, I think health is still an issue and accounts for at least part of his poor season. He's still fairly young, so has time to get well and get better.

Hopefully, the Giants can get Tim Lincicum signed. The rest of the 2006 draft class is off to a great start,and there are a whole bunch of young international players in the system. If all that comes together, perhaps this year won't be a total loss. With the end of the Bonds era rapidly approaching, they need to have young prospects in the pipeline, because they ain't gonna find Barry Bonds again on the FA market.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 29, 2006 4:01 AM EDT reply actions

Burris

DrB, where is Burris? You say our picks are doing great, and I know he signed, but where is he playing?

Are there other guys doing well?

by rcobeen on Jun 29, 2006 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

found him

Burris is playing in Salem. Hasn't done much yet.

by rcobeen on Jun 29, 2006 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Burriss

Yes, Emmanuel Burriss seemed completely lost in his first 3-4 games. I still am not convinced a guy with his skill set is worth a Supplemental Round pick. He has seemed to settled down and has shown some speed and even hit a HR. If he can stay in the middle infield, he will probably have value. If he ends up in the OF, it was a poor use of the pick.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 29, 2006 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought

his glove was 100% ok. His arm might move him from SS to 2b but his glove skills were perfectly fine and staying in the IF wasn't an issue.

by nms on Jul 3, 2006 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Joaquin

Why Joaquin has'nt pitched all year?
Is he injury? Still a good prospect?

I was surprised not to see him pitch so far.

Any info???

by cangrejero51 on Jun 29, 2006 8:35 AM EDT reply actions

Joaquin

Why Joaquin hasn't pitched all year?
Is he injury? Still a good prospect?

I was surprised not to see him pitch so far.

Any info???

by cangrejero51 on Jun 29, 2006 8:36 AM EDT reply actions

Where is Waldis?

A lot of Giants fans are asking the same question. I would have to assume he has some sort of injury or else he's working on secondary pitches in a camp type situation, but that seems a little far-fetched so health may be a factor here.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 29, 2006 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Pablo Sandoval

Of much greater concern than his mediocre offensive stats are Sandoval's defensive issues. He was a catcher in the AZL in 2004. He was a third baseman last year in the NWL. He started out at 3B this year in Augusta, but was making errors by the bushel and is now playing first base. Sandoval is a good prospect as a catcher, a decent prospect as a third baseman, and a terrible prospect as a first baseman. Why would the Giants move him away from the premium positions so quickly. He's still very young and has plenty of time to improve. He certainly isn't going to learn how to catch or play 3B by playing 1B. The explanation for moving him from catcher was that the Giants like his bat so much, they thought it would develop better at 3B. I'm not at all sure that was sound thinking.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 29, 2006 11:00 AM EDT reply actions