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Which AL baseball organization has the best young talent already on the major league team?

I'm biased, but I'm gonna have to go with the Twins. You can't beat a .392 hitting catcher, a great slugger, and the best young pitcher in baseball.

What do you think???

Poll
Which AL baseball organization has the best young talent (25 and under) already on the major league team?
Other (Who???)
5 votes
Twins (Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Kubel, etc...) <<<< Best Answer
154 votes
Tigers (Verlander, Bonderman, Zumaya, Granderson, etc...)
41 votes
Indians (Sizemore, Peralta, etc...)
16 votes
Devil Rays (Gomes, Crawford, Baldelli, Kazmir, etc...)
32 votes
Athletics (Harden, Haren, Street, Swisher, etc...)
20 votes
Rangers (Blalock, Kinsler, etc...)
8 votes
Mariners (Hernandez, Betancourt, Lopez, ect...)
2 votes
Angels (K-Rod, McPherson, Kotchman, etc...)
10 votes
Red Sox (Hanson, Papelbon, Lester, Pena, etc...)
17 votes

305 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 71 comments

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it's gotta be the twins if you're only talking mlb
...otherwise the DRays are still tops imo...Upton, Delmon, and Brignac is too much to ignore...

by daveh33 on Jun 27, 2006 8:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you are only talking top 3 .. twins
But if you want to field a full YOUNG team they are not close.

by novaoakland on Jun 27, 2006 8:24 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Guess
My guess is he means that the Twins have three exceptional young players... but not much more.  Other teams may not have players of quite the caliber of Mauer or Liriano, but they have more of it (the old depth v. ceiling argument).
Personally, I went with the Rays, especially now that the have Navarro.  Kazmir, Gomes, Crawford, baldelli, Cantu, Navarro make for an impressive collection.

While the Sox are not one of th top teams in this area, it's very encouraging to see the resurgence they've undergone in this area with Papelbon, Lester, Hansen, Youkilis, Crisp and Pena.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jun 30, 2006 12:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I went for the pitching
And chose the Tigers.  When in doubt, choose the pitching.  I know the Twins have nice pitching too, but I don't think it's anywhere close to what the Tigers have (or the volume, either)

But really, none of those teams really stands out to me as the clearcut winner.  

by Jgaztambide on Jun 27, 2006 8:46 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dude.
Twins have much better pitching.  Tigers have Bonderman, Verlander, Zumaya, Miller.  That's pretty damn awesome.  But the Twins have one of the best minor league systems in baseball, and the only "problem" with it is that it's ALL pitching.

Even after all the amazing minor league pitchers they have, Santana's not exactly "old" at 27.

by abbreviatedman on Jun 27, 2006 11:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indians
If you're not talking minor league systems but just young players, it's GOT to be the Indians.  I mean, you've got Peralta, Martinez, Hafner, Sabathia, and Lee all under 30.  You'd take that over anyone's farm system because they're all already young established major leaguers.

And then you've got some great prospects like Sowers, Miller, Marte (really turning it around now), Cabrera, Fausto Carmona (one of the best names ever), Shoppach, and so on.

I'm a huge Red Sox fan, but this is a no-brainer to me.

Speaking of which, check this out:  http://www.brains4zombies.com

by abbreviatedman on Jun 27, 2006 11:21 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

25 and Under
Peralta, Sizemore and Gutierrez are the three Indians who are 25 or under, which was the criteria.    None of them are even close to as good as Mauer and probably not Morneau or Kubel either. Although Sizemore is more established than Kubel or Morneau.

The Twins only have three pitchers on the roster who 25 and under, Crain, Liriano and Bonser. They have guys in the minors, but that wasn't the question. But Cleveland doesn't have a single pitcher under 25 as good as any of those three and no starters at all.

I don't really think Cleveland is in the competition. And if you add a couple years the Twins add Cuddyer, Santana, Silva and Rincon who all turn 27 this year. And they have guys like Tiffee and Bartlett who are just breaking into the majors who turn 27 this year as well.

by TT on Jun 27, 2006 11:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My bad.
Misread it.

BUT.  You're forgetting Jeremy Sowers, Fernando Cabrera, and Fausto Carmona, who are all on the team I believe, and are three of the best prospects in baseball.

As to Mauer, he's a MONSTER, but Morneau and Kubel both have huge question marks.  Morneau isn't taking any walks, and his OBP is only about league average.  After last year's dismal performance, I'm just not buying yet on him.  22/56 BB/K ratio, not very promising.  Mauer's even worse in that regard, .291/.319 is not a very good BA/OBP mark, 5 BBs and 23 Ks in 110 ABs.  Plus, his knee problems may not be behind him, and there are plenty of rumors he'll have to be moved from the OF, severely limiting his defensive value.

And with the pitching, Liriano's amazing, but Crain and Bonser have  a long way to go to be even solid major leaguers.

Hey, it's all opinions, but I'd take Peralta/Sizemore/Marte/Shoppach/Sowers/Carmona/Cabrera any day.

by abbreviatedman on Jun 28, 2006 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sizemore << Mauer
..or Morneau or Kubel?

Obviously you were just joking.

by FtheNYY on Jun 28, 2006 10:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mauer and Sizemore
Mauer has a 9.7 WARP3 this year.  Sizemore has a 9.7 WARP3 this year.

Mauer is a catcher and 8 months younger.

by limozeen on Jun 28, 2006 12:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The fact that he's a catcher...
... is already taken into account with WARP, I believe.

by abbreviatedman on Jun 28, 2006 2:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My thoughts!
Hello everyone,

Thanks for the support, abbreviatedman! :-)  

I too put the cutoff point at 30, as you'll see below.  In my opinion, I think TT wanted to keep Hafner out with his under-27 age limit because that definitely shifts the odds in the Indians' favor.  :-)

I'm going to post several times to keep my posts small, but there is a lot to address and a lot that I disagree with, especially regarding TT's post:

TT - I'll grant you Mauer over all three because of what he is doing right now, but Morneau and Kubel?  No offense, Morneau still has holes in his swing, though his power is finally starting to show up, but he can still be exploited on offspeed pitches on the outer half - I doubt he becomes the next Travis Hafner, who can handle the entire plate and has as much pure power as Morneau, plus can hit over .300, something Morneau hasn't shown yet, and is not projected to be a .300 hitter based on his Minor League stats.

As for Kubel, it's nice to see that he came back from the torn ACL and is hitting well, but he hasn't even done what Peralta has done yet - have one full good season; you're basing what he'll do on speculation.  Let's wait and see him have one full good season first before we even consider him better or even equal to Peralta.  Plus, Peralta plays a more premium position than Kubel does, which gives Peralta a bit of an edge in terms of overall value.

No offense, Cuddyer is a decent player, but the guy is not the great player most expected him to be just a few years ago.  If he keeps up his current production, he'll probably be considered an above-average player, but not a "great" player, like he and Restovich were considered when they were coming up through the Twins Minor League system several years ago.

It's ironic that you put the cutoff point at 27, since Hafner is older than 27 (he just turned 29 less than a month ago - that's hardly old; he would still be considered younger rather than older.)  Well, I'll include anyone under 30 like abbreviatedman did, since most ML players and prospects can be productive under the age of 30, so Hafner can be included in my list, and that certainly favors the Indians.

Plus, Victor Martinez is 27 for the 2006 season, so you have to include him in your list, based on your own criteria.

While Martinez can't match Mauer defensively, offensively, he has comparable hitting skills (he's struggled through more inconsistency this year than in the past, but he has hit extremely well for long periods - he hit over .400 the final 2-3 months of 2005,) plus he can hit for power, something Mauer has not shown yet.

As for Hafner, I doubt Morneau becomes the next Hafner in terms of his total offensive package.  As for Kubel, it remains to be seen, but duplicating Hafner won't be easy, even for Kubel.  If he comes close, the Twins should be thrilled with that.

Therefore, I don't think this statement is accurate:

"I don't really think Cleveland is in the competition."

Add in Garko, Marte, Gutierrez, and Francisco (all at AAA) to match Tiffee and Bartlett for depth and the Indians match pretty well with the Twins.  It's not a slam dunk for the Twins in my opinion.

Just my 2 cents.

More to come in my next post; stay tuned! :-)

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 1:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indians
  1. First of all, there's no way you can consider Hafner to be young. He's a veteran.
  2. I see no reason to believe Morneau can't be beter then Hafner. When Hafner was Morneau's age, he was spending most of the season down in AAA. Morneau is much more advanced as his age then Hafner was. When Hafner was a 26 year old and finally staying up at the major league level he had an AWFUL 22 BB/81 K ratio in just 291 at bats.
  3. You're right, Kubel hasn't done what Peralta did... Have a lousy 1st half of his sophmore season. I bet the Indians are having 2nd doubts about signing him to the 5 year extension with his BA, OBP, SLG, HR, BB/K ratio and all other important stats taking a massive drop-off from last season.

by Justin & Joe on Jun 28, 2006 1:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My response to your points!
Hello HelloGoodBye,

You've already admitted you're biased toward the Twins, which seems to be coming out in your responses, in my opinion. :-)

Here's my responses:

  1. He's a veteran in experience - yes.  But he's under 30!  I think you have to be at least 30 before you can even be considered "old," and most would consider that to be in your "prime," not "old," but Hafner is definitely not "old."  Between young and old, he's still younger.
  2. No offense, while Morneau may be up at the ML level younger than Hafner, he has not shown Hafner's ability to use the whole field, as indicated by Morneau's lower career Minor League BA of .248, versus Hafner's .293!  
Plus, Hafner has improved greatly since that first partial season in the walk department, the stats of which you quote.  Morneau's walk rates at the ML level have stayed pretty much the same over the last few years.

If Morneau can improve that much, it will be a rarity.  He may be a good offensive player at this point, but Hafner is a special offensive player.  

The SportsTime Ohio announcers even mentioned that opponents are treating Hafner like David Ortiz, not giving him anything to hit and walking him most of the time.  Morneau is not at that level yet, and likely won't be if he can't handle the outside pitches, which do not bother Hafner.  

He regularly goes to left-field - he's not an all-or-nothing pull hitter like Morneau has shown in the past, and from most of the highlights I've seen, Morneau still has a major tendency to pull the ball more often than not.  

To me, he reminds me more of a slugger, not a true all-around hitter like Hafner and Ortiz.

3.  This is where your Twins' favoritism really comes out.  :-)  Granted, Peralta has struggled in his sophomore season - many other players have struggled in their sophomore seasons also - that doesn't mean Peralta can't come back.  In fact, he's looked much better at the plate lately, batting around .450-.500 over the last 5 games or so because he has started to use the whole field again and not trying to pull everything.

You ignored the point that Kubel hasn't even had one full season in the Majors - Peralta has already done that, and quite an impressive one at that.  Wait until Kubel has an impressive full season before even comparing him to Peralta. :-)

Whether the Indians regret giving him the 5-year deal, that's debatable, but my guess is, probably not at this point.  They probably expected Peralta to struggle more in his second season as pitchers adjusted to him.  I'm sure they anticipated that when they offered him the 5-year contract.  

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 2:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indiansfan
you are usually very on the ball, but morneau's career minor league avg. is .310.  That is quite a bit better than hafner... unless you accidentally put minor instead of major.

by joeywyen on Jun 28, 2006 2:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're right - sorry!
Hello joeywyen,

Thanks for keeping me on my toes - I looked at the wrong column - his career Minor League BA is .310 - thanks!  That's what happens when you're in a bit of a rush and look at the wrong line. :-)

Overall, I think Hafner has improved greatly in his approach at the plate.  Morneau could do that, but I don't think it's that easy for anyone to develop the patience Hafner has developed.  Plus, from the times I have seen Morneau, he seems to have the tendency to pull the ball more times than not.

I have seen him go a few times to the opposite field this year from some of the game highlights, but unless he can do that consistently and lay off some of those outside pitches, I don't think he'll duplicate Hafner's advancement as a hitter.  

I've seen projections of him where he would be more of a .270 30-40 HRs, 100+ RBI guy, which is good, but not at Hafner's level, especially with the BA.  I'm not sure if Morneau will be a .300+ hitter unless he makes the adjustments I mentioned above.  That's why I have doubts that Morneau will be the next Travis Hafner.

Just my 2 cents.

Again, thanks for catching that error and for keeping me on my toes.  :-)

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 9:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Part 2 of my post!
Hello again everyone,

This will be a slightly longer post - please bear with me - thanks! :-)

TT - these statements:  

"The Twins only have three pitchers on the roster who 25 and under, Crain, Liriano and Bonser. They have guys in the minors, but that wasn't the question. But Cleveland doesn't have a single pitcher under 25 as good as any of those three and no starters at all."

They are false in my opinion.

Crain?!  He has the following line:

47 H in 34.2 IP, a 5.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a .315 BAA; he will also turn 25 on July 5.

Fausto Carmona, who's only 22, has this line:

33.1 IP, 36 H, a 4.86 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .279 BAA; he won't turn 23 until Dec. 2006.

Plus, Carmona has both started and relieved, whereas Crain is only a reliever.  I think Carmona has certainly been better than Crain to this point, and he's about 2.5 years younger than Crain.  Advantage - Carmona.

Liriano - I'll grant you him; Adam Miller may be the only one in the Indians' system at this point who can match him (possibly Chuck Lofgren at High-A; he's 20 years old and has struck out 70 in 76 IP) and Miller's having a decent year at AA at this point.  His continued good health is a good sign, along with an increasing strikeout rate (87 K in 89.0 IP) toward his previous levels of over a K/IP.

Bonser - nice pitcher, but his line reminds me of Carmona's a bit:

36 H in 32.2 IP, 4.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .288 BAA; plus, Bonser is 24, will be 25 in Oct. 2006, over 2 years older than Carmona.

As abbreviatedman already mentioned, you can't forget about Fernando Cabrera.  Yes, he's had control issues this year due to problems with his mechanics, but has still put up this line:

23 H in 26.1 IP, 5.81 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .247 BAA

Regarding K rates,

Crain has struck out 30 in 34.2 IP;
Cabrera has struck out 27 in 26.1 IP.

Cabrera is also a few months younger than Crain and still has an arguably higher ceiling than Crain if he can keep consistent mechanics - Cabrera dominated last year, Crain did not, and neither is dominating this year, though Cabrera's stats are improving, while I believe Crain's are declining (didn't Crain have a better K/9 IP rate to start the year?!  It's not even a K/IP now.  Cabrera, despite his difficulties, is still striking out over a batter an inning.)  Advantage - Cabrera.

Also, abbreviatedman mentioned Sowers.  Now, granted, no one will mistake Sowers for Liriano, but in time, Sowers should be a good #3, possibly even a solid #2 if/when he learns to command his pitches effectively at the ML level and learns how to attack hitters.  I like to compare him to Jamie Moyer in the way he attacks hitters, and actually, Sowers had a higher K/9 IP rate in the Minors than Moyer ever did.  

Hopefully, it won't take Sowers nearly as long as it did Moyer to figure out how to be dominant.  I think his ceiling could be higher than that of Bonser's, who only found consistency recently after several years in both the Giants and Twins' farm systems.

TT - I could be mistaken, but if I recall correctly, aren't you a Twins fan?  :-)

Look, the Twins have a good system - there's no doubt about that.  Is it significantly better than the Indians' system?  I don't think so, especially after Liriano really can't be considered part of that system anymore since it's unlikely he'll see the Minors again unless it's on a rehab assignment.

The Indians can match the depth of the Twins' farm system, something I've said before, and something I still believe.

While many Twins' fans mention Anthony Swarzak, Jay Rainville, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, etc., the Indians can counter with Adam Miller, Tony Sipp, Chuck Lofgren, Joe Ness, Scott Lewis, Jensen Lewis, Sean Smith, Andrew Brown, Ronald "Bear" Bay, Aaron Laffey, etc.  

Not to mention position players like Trevor Crowe, John Drennen, Wyatt Toregas, Brad Snyder, Ryan Garko, Andy Marte, etc., an area that the Twins' farm system needs to improve upon, as abbreviatedman mentioned.  

Peralta, Sizemore, Cabrera, Carmona are all under 25 - those four alone should keep the Indians in the competition.  Actually, Sabathia doesn't turn 26 until the end of July, so he's still in the 25-age range - that definitely narrows the advantage for the Twins, as Sabathia has shown that the second half of 2005 was no fluke.  He has shown that he can match Santana and Liriano's dominating performances, and he's over 2 years younger than Santana.

Add Martinez, only 27, into that mix, and that improves their chances.  Add Hafner, who's still under 30 at 29, and that further improves their chances of having the best young talent at the ML-level.

Just my 5 cents. :-)

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 2:19 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response
Crain's fine. He's not having a great year but he's gotten wrecked pretty badly by an abnormal BABIP and he posted sub-3 ERAs both of the previous two years. Advantage is definitely to Crain if compared to Carmona.

Barring injury, I'll put money that Miller will never, ever match Liriano. And I like Miller. Chuck Lofgren . . .uh uh.

We shouldn't forget about the guy who has a 1.6 WHIP and 5.81 ERA? Okay . . .but he's going to need to show a LOT more and isn't exactly a shining example of the quality in the Indians system at this point.

The Indians farm system is probably better than that of the Twins, but not by that much. I still believe in Marte, I like Adam Miller. I think Kouzmanoff can probably hit enough to play somewhere in some capacity at the majors. Drennen is as much a sleeper as a supplemental pick can be, but may end up being a tweener - I do think he has the potential and drive to be a major leaguer. We don't know about Crowe yet, because as a college-experienced speed guy in A ball he SHOULD be doing very well. He's a guy to watch as he transitions to higher levels, but he's an interesting guy. Don't like Snyder at all, but I think you already knew that.

The Twins do have them beat easily pitching-wise, though. Garza and Slowey are excellent prospects - I like Garza significantly more than Miller and Slowey is a lot like a righty Sowers but might actually be better. One problem for the Indians is that beyond Sowers, Miller, and the still-very-young Lofgren, they have a lot of guys who probably project best as major league relievers. I think they'll have a dynamite pen in a couple of years but I don't see much help for the rotation, especially if Miller busts. Despite what you suggest, Sabathia isn't nearly the pitcher that Santana or even the Liriano of today is.

by mrkupe on Jun 28, 2006 2:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How can you say Crain is fine, yet Cabrera isn't?
Hello mrkupe,

Thank you for mentioning Kouzmanoff - that is another position player I forgot to mention, which again gives the Indians a bit of an advantage in the position player department.  I would have probably mentioned him instead of Snyder if I remembered him (don't know how I forgot him,) since Snyder admittedly is not doing as well as the Indians would like, but being only 24, he still has some time to become more consistent (he went 4 for 6 tonight and is hitting about .350 or so over his last 10 games.)

No offense, though, how can you say that Crain is fine, but Cabrera isn't?  Both of them have struggled this year, and if I'm correct, Cabrera has been better of late (I've seen him myself where he looks more like he did last year,) whereas Crain's K rate (if I heard correctly) has actually declined.  Plus, not only that, his stats are worse than Cabrera's and he's a bit older than Cabrera.

Admittedly, Cabrera does have to show more, but he dominated in the Majors last year with great peripherals (29 K in 30.2 IP, just under K/IP); Crain, on the other hand, had a higher ERA and more walks than strikeouts, where he only had 25 K in 79.2 IP in 2005 (less than 1 in every 3 IP!)  By most measures, Cabrera had the stronger season in 2005, plus Cabrera was doing it in a playoff race; Crain wasn't in that situation.

Regarding Sabathia, I said that Sabathia has shown he can dominate like Santana and Liriano and I think he has shown that the second half of 2005 was no fluke, when he posted even better numbers than Santana in the same 2-month time-frame.  He's still two years younger than Santana, so he has a chance to perform like Santana at the same age.  

Granted, Liriano has outdone both of them by what he has accomplished at age 22, but it remains to be seen whether he will stay healthy and if everything will be smooth-sailing for him.  Things look good, but you never know for sure with pitching.

Regarding your opinion of the Indians' pitching in the farm system, I think it remains to be seen with guys like Joe Ness and Jensen Lewis on where they fit best, but Ness especially has done quite well as a starter and from what I have heard, has good stuff for a starter (low- to mid-90s from what I have heard.)  

However, if Sabathia, one or two of Lee/Byrd/Westbrook, and Sowers make up your 5 for the next 3-5 years, you probably only need 1-2 starters from your farm system.

Plus, guys like "Bear" Bay, Sean Smith, and even J.D. Martin (who's pitching again at SS Mahoning Valley after TJ surgey last year) could possibly fit into that #5 spot if need be.

It remains to be seen whether all those Minor League pitchers become relievers, but I think some, like Sipp, could actually become effective starters if given the chance.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 3:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response
Jesse Crain's 2006 BABIP: .374
Fernando Cabrera's 2006 BABIP: .302

One of these guys has been ridiculously unlucky. I'll leave it to you to figure out who that is.

Yes, Sabathia is younger. He's also incredibly inconsistent and he's done nothing to disprove this in my eyes. By "chance" of turning into Santana I hope you mean like 10 percent, which I think is being very kind to Sabathia. There's also a bunch of other guys who I think have at least an equal and in many cases a better chance of becoming an ace type pitcher than Sabathia.

Jensen Lewis isn't pitching nearly as well as I had hoped for. Scouting report on him said he should just glide through A ball, but his ERA is near 4, he's allowing more than a hit an inning (BAD news for a highly drafted college pitcher in A ball), and has not-so-impressive other peripherals other than the walks. He still looks like a back-end rotation starter if he makes it at all.

In any case, I don't see a Sabathia/Miller/Sowers/Lee/other pitcher rotation being nearly as good as, say, Santana/Liriano/Garza/Slowey/other pitcher (Bonser? Baker? Perhaps one of the many young pitchers will emerge from the lower levels?). This is probably overly optimistic, but seeing as Santana and Liriano have already arrived and considering the Twins have such great depth of quality, I'm pretty certain that their rotation will beat whatever the Indians have hands down.

by mrkupe on Jun 28, 2006 3:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My response!
Hello mrkupe,

While Crain has been "unlucky," his K/IP is still lower than Cabrera's by a decent margin.  Not to mention that by most accounts, the Twins' defense is better than the Indians, so I don't know how Crain can be considered "unlucky"; as far as I know, the Twins were supposed to have good range as well.  

Most Indians' fans have complained about Peralta and Belliard's range, as well as the inconsistency of Boone at 3B.  It would seem Crain would have the advantage of having a better defense, not the other way around.

In my opinion, Crain doesn't look that overpowering to me from the stats I've seen.  A decent K rate, but not overpowering.  Cabrera, despite his struggles, is still striking out over a batter an inning.  If he gets his mechanics straightened out (certainly possible,) I still think he can dominate enough to be a dominant setup man or even a closer.

Sabathia - throughout his career, he has been inconsistent, but keep in mind, he's only 25.  And, based on what he has done since last August, he seems much more consistent to me.  Watching him, he's a much different pitcher than he used to be - instead of trying to throw 98-99 on every pitch, he's throwing 92-94 with great movement and command, then dials it up to 98 or so when he needs a strikeout or when he's ahead in the count.

To me, he's much more consistent - if you look at what he has done since August 2005, he's a much different pitcher.  That is enough of a sample size in my opinion to say that this isn't just some hot streak or some fluke.  Does he need to keep it going?  Yes.  Does he have the capability to keep doing it?  Based on the past 4 months - yes.

By the way, if you're basing the "inconsistency" on his starts against the Angels, Brewers, and Cubs, he had a couple of rough starts against the first two (really his first two of the season,) while the one against the Cubs wasn't his fault, due to the poor defense and "brain cramps" of Ben Broussard and Ronnie Belliard - almost any pitcher could have given up after what those two did (let me know if you don't know what I am referring to - I'll describe the bone-headed plays they made in my next post) - C.C. shouldn't have given up any runs that inning, and then winds up giving up 8 in that inning, all of them earned because you can't charge "mental errors," even though they clearly were.  

His ERA should have been around 3 after that start, not over 4.  He then shut down the Cardinals on Tuesday, allowing just 1 run in 8 IP, along with keeping Pujols to 1 hit, which dropped his ERA back to 3.86.

C.C. is far more consistent than he has been.  While he may not be Santana, he is two years younger than Santana and you don't necessarily have to be Santana to be an ace.  You have to be in the general neighborhood, and I think C.C.'s past four months of consistent dominance has proven that he is in the general neighborhood.

Jensen Lewis has struggled more than I would like as well, but it's too early to give up on him.  Joe Ness, on the other hand, has dominated as expected and will probably be up at AA Akron before the year is out.  From all accounts I've heard, he also could be an effective middle-of-the-rotation starter, if not more.

As for future rotations, it remains to be seen from both the Twins and Indians' farm systems who stay starters and who become relievers; chances are, both systems will have Minor League starters who turn into relievers - I doubt all the Twins' current Minor League starters stay starters, and not just because there isn't enough room in the rotation to accommodate all of them - heck, even J.D. Durbin has been mentioned more as a bullpen guy now, and just a few years ago, he was considered a front-of-the-rotation starter.  

Therefore, I think your statement of "depth" applies to both teams and both teams will have Minor League starters turn into ML relievers because the pitchers will fit better in the bullpen than they will in the rotation.

And yes, I think that statement you made is "overly optimistic" - Slowey has not faced AA hitters yet.  Sowers' BB/IP rate went down (from 2.40 to 0.98) and his WHIP also went down (1.11 to 1.01) as he faced AA hitters; let's see if Slowey can duplicate that or come close to that before we envision Slowey as a right-handed Sowers; Slowey is still some distance from the Majors.  

His first AA start was decent (8 H, 4 ER in 6.1 IP,) but it looks like he has some adjustments to make to match his dominating High-A statistics.

Plus, to me, it seems that left-handers can get away with less velocity, as there are more soft-tossing lefties than righties in the MLs - one of the few soft-tossing righties I can think of is Mike Wood, and he's a spot starter/long relief guy.  Therefore, in my opinion, Slowey will have to really be good to convince the Twins to give him a rotation spot.  It could happen, but Slowey is far from a sure thing yet.

As for Garza, he's doing quite well, but keep in mind that he's a college draftee and 22 years old; Miller is a high school pitcher and only 21, which gives him a bit more development time than Garza.  

Plus, Miller had to overcome the elbow injury he had, which to this point, he has.  Now he's starting to get back into the flow of just pitching and improving his command, not worrying about his elbow, as Indians Director of Player Development John Farrell mentioned in an interview earlier tonight.

Just my 5 cents. :-)

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 29, 2006 12:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

More stuff
Here's how you can consider Crain to be unlucky: his BABIP is .374! That is way, way, WAY above the norm. I'm not sure why you can't accept this other than maybe just not liking Crain in general.

"By the way, if you're basing the "inconsistency" on his starts against the Angels, Brewers, and Cubs"

So I shouldn't base a claim of Sabathia being inconsistent on his pattern of mixing good starts with bad starts? He's wrecked on the White Sox this year, who have been terrible against lefties anyways. He's gotten destroyed by the Angels and Cubs, two REALLY bad offenses. Don't get me wrong, he doesn't look like a bad pitcher . . .but he doesn't look like a staff ace either. Certainly his numbers have never warranted that sort of praise.

I agree, not all of the Twins' pitchers, if they make it, will become starters. That being said, due to the greater quality and quantity of the Twins' prospects (and also the little fact that they have two of the best pitchers in the league already in their rotation), I fully expect them to be fielding a much better rotation than the Indians, or anybody else in the division or maybe the majors for that matter.

All Slowey has been (with the exception of his one AA start) is really good this year. John called him one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He looks pretty good to everybody else and the Twins have a good history of making successful starters out of young pitchers, so I'm inclined to think that the Twins aren't exactly skeptical at this point. Hell, if they didn't want to give the guy a rotation spot in the future, why would they have used such an early pick on him?

I'm aware you're just going to note the league factor on me and leave it at that, but Slowey had better peripherals than Sowers at the same level. It doesn't seem a stretch to me to suggest that Slowey might turn out to be the better pitcher, especially as I'm not convinced that Sowers will be anything more than a back of the rotation guy.

Miller has looked solid. Garza has looked better. Don't have much else to say besides that.

by mrkupe on Jun 29, 2006 1:18 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My response!
Hello mrkupe,

What exactly is the norm for BABIP?  I admit .374 is high, but what is the norm - .300?  Higher?  Cabrera's is considerably lower at .301, but is that considered higher than average also?

My point about Sabathia is that he has become more consistent over the past 4 months.  In the past, he would usually alternate one somewhat good start (high BBs, high Ks) with a bad start where he gave up several runs in the first few innings.  He was quite erratic.

Every one is entitled to a bad start or two and he bounced back very nicely against one of the best offenses in the NL, St. Louis, on their home field, no less.

You mentioned the Cubs' offense as being bad - I presume you don't know about Belliard and Broussard's brain-cramps that caused C.C. to look worse than he actually was against them; I'll give you a quick rundown.

In fact, you can go to this link to read about it for yourself:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=260621105

But here's a quick summary:

With runners on first and third and nobody out in the third, Nevin chops a ball to Broussard.  Neifi Perez, the runner at third, begins to come down the line, but stops and heads back to third.  Broussard, seeing him head down the line before he had the ball and hearing someone say "4," threw it home, but Perez went back to third.  By this time, Nevin was at first and the bases were loaded.  Broussard could have had a double play on that, and certainly one out for sure.

Next play, Matt Murton hits a grounder toward Belliard, who scoops up the ball and whirls around toward second.  The runner wasn't even halfway to second base, but Belliard fakes the throw to second.  Then he fakes the throw home, but doesn't throw it.  He then fakes the throw to first, but by then, Murton was about a step away from 1st and Belliard held on to the ball.  Another out for sure, maybe two.

By then, Sabathia was flustered, as just about any pitcher would be after those two boneheaded plays.  He then lost his focus and tried to overthrow in an attempt to strike the guys out so that his defense wouldn't have to do anything.  That didn't work and the inning snowballed.

Obviously, that loss wasn't C.C.'s fault; at most, the Cubs should have scored 1 run, not 8!  No offense, you said the Twins' defense was bad, especially in your defense of Crain.  Can they top those two boneheaded plays?  I doubt it.

Slowey has been really good this year, but he'll probably need some adjustment time.  Sowers adapted pretty quickly; we'll see how Slowey does.

By the way, there are others who think Slowey is probably a #3 starter, much like Sowers, so I'm not sure there is much of a difference between the two at this point, except that Sowers is more advanced.

Miller has looked solid in his comeback from his tender elbow (may that continue); Garza has looked good as well.  

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 29, 2006 7:09 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

By the way, HelloGoodBye!
Hello again HelloGoodBye,

As you've already admitted, you're definitely biased towards the Twins when you put "Best Answer" next to the Twins choice.  :-)

Plus, you only put down Sizemore and Peralta; you forgot Sabathia, Cabrera, Carmona, Sowers, and Gutierrez, as all are under 25.  You put down 4 in your list for the Twins - that shows a little bit of biased behavior as well.

You certainly could have put Sabathia and either Cabrera or Carmona as two other choices to make it a bit more fair.  Or were you afraid that more people might have chosen the Indians if you listed 4 Indians instead, LOL! :-)

I think I have provided enough reasons to show that the Twins are not the best choice.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 2:47 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, but I provided an objective analysis!
Hello HelloGoodBye,

I'm glad you pointed out my name, but I provided statistics to back up my arguments; you did not.  Therefore, my analysis was more objective.

Even when you knocked Peralta, you didn't provide any stats to back it up.  Of course, most know he's struggled most of this season.  However, having watched him every day, I can also say that he is showing more of the form last year as well, using the whole field, not chasing quite as many pitches as before, so let's wait until the season ends before we deem his sophomore season a "down year."

Just my 2 cents. :-)

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 2:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A correction!
Hello again HelloGoodBye,

I meant to say

"Plus, you only put down Sizemore and Peralta; you forgot Sabathia, Cabrera, Carmona, Sowers, and Gutierrez, as all are 25 or younger."

Sabathia is still 25, so in my opinion, he still counts in your poll.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 2:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

twins best young talent...
indians have good young talent....

but they have no true ACE, like Lirano is. Liriano has a golden arm, and if he doesn't blow it nothing will stop him from a HOF type career.

Morneau, mauer, kubel is as good as any trio of young hitters in the game.

.390 avg, 20 hr guy, and kubel who is finding his form as a top prospect now.

Twins young talent, is why they have won like 15 out of their last 16 games.

Once Liriano entered the rotation, bartlett took over at SS, and kubel came back we took off.  Also Mauer hitting .500 past month and Morneau going nuts doesn't hurt.

Twins young talent is carrying them.  I don't think the indians can say the same...

by hotshotschamp on Jun 28, 2006 3:31 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The '06 Twins are like the '05 Indians!
Hello hotshotschamp,

"Twins young talent is carrying them.  I don't think the indians can say the same..."

That's mostly because the Twins' young talent has a better "supporting staff" around them - try having Boone and Hollandsworth, two automatic outs in your lineup, along with Gutierrez, who is getting adjusted to the Majors.  

Peralta hasn't been up to what most expected at this point, but the same thing can't be said for Sizemore - he only being 14th(!) in AL OFers fan balloting is a joke in my opinion; he should be easily Top 10, if not Top 5.  Hafner has done his part as well.  Victor has been more inconsistent, but is still hitting just under .300, despite having a .180 May.

In 2006, you can say the Indians' young talent are not carrying the team, but they did in 2005.  In fact, I see the Twins '06 group much like the Indians '05 group.  They are also similar in the regard that both had/have big hills to climb.  The Indians nearly did it, except for one bad week.

The Twins will likely have to keep playing like they are for the rest of this year to have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot, in my opinion.  

You've gained .5 game despite going what, 9-1, or something like that?  Unless the Tigers and White Sox both fall off like the White Sox did last August and September, I think the Twins may be out of the race in 2006 much like the Indians are, even though the Twins are playing that much better and would be able to get back in the race if they were in any other division.

By the way, I'd be leery of making comments like this:  "Liriano has a golden arm, and if he doesn't blow it nothing will stop him from a HOF type career."

Granted, an arm injury is the likeliest reason, but saying "nothing" can stop him?  No offense, probably a Cardinals fan mentioned something similar in regards to Rick Ankiel several years ago, and he didn't suffer an arm injury, but isn't the ace he once was.

I'm not saying that "Steve Blass" disease will happen to Liriano, but the main point is, you just don't know.  Look at Mark Prior - every bit as good as Liriano, yet he's succumbed to injuries.  

Being that Liriano had his own arm injury several years ago, he still has to stay healthy to have a chance to realize that HOF career and he still has to do what he is doing for several more years before we start talking HOF for Liriano.

Just my 5 cents. :-)

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 9:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

INDIANSFAN
My rebuttal... :)

"He's a veteran in experience - yes.  But he's under 30!  I think you have to be at least 30 before you can even be considered "old," and most would consider that to be in your "prime," not "old," but Hafner is definitely not "old."  Between young and old, he's still younger."

Except the whole point of this diary is do discuss young players. Please read titles more carefully in the future.

"No offense, while Morneau may be up at the ML level younger than Hafner, he has not shown Hafner's ability to use the whole field, as indicated by Morneau's lower career Minor League BA of .248, versus Hafner's .293!"

Double check your sources in the future, his minor league BA is .310

"Plus, Hafner has improved greatly since that first partial season in the walk department, the stats of which you quote.  Morneau's walk rates at the ML level have stayed pretty much the same over the last few years."

Morneau's walk rate at his age is better then Hafner's was at the same age.

"Granted, Peralta has struggled in his sophomore season - many other players have struggled in their sophomore seasons also - that doesn't mean Peralta can't come back.  In fact, he's looked much better at the plate lately, batting around .450-.500 over the last 5 games or so because he has started to use the whole field again and not trying to pull everything.

You ignored the point that Kubel hasn't even had one full season in the Majors - Peralta has already done that, and quite an impressive one at that.  Wait until Kubel has an impressive full season before even comparing him to Peralta. :-)"

  1. You were the one actually comparing them first. :)
  2. Kubel has a much higher ceiling then Peralta and it's amazing how well he's hitting considering he missed an entire season!
"47 H in 34.2 IP, a 5.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a .315 BAA; he will also turn 25 on July 5.

Fausto Carmona, who's only 22, has this line:

33.1 IP, 36 H, a 4.86 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .279 BAA; he won't turn 23 until Dec. 2006.

Plus, Carmona has both started and relieved, whereas Crain is only a reliever.  I think Carmona has certainly been better than Crain to this point, and he's about 2.5 years younger than Crain.  Advantage - Carmona."

I'd take Crain, because he has actually had success at the major league level and is just in a little struggle for the first half of this year, while Carmona has had 0 major league success.

"Liriano - I'll grant you him; Adam Miller may be the only one in the Indians' system at this point who can match him (possibly Chuck Lofgren at High-A; he's 20 years old and has struck out 70 in 76 IP) and Miller's having a decent year at AA at this point.  His continued good health is a good sign, along with an increasing strikeout rate (87 K in 89.0 IP) toward his previous levels of over a K/IP."

No one in your farm system will match Liriano. So I hope you're not getting your hopes up with kids in high A who can almost strike out a batter per inning. :(

"As you've already admitted, you're definitely biased towards the Twins when you put "Best Answer" next to the Twins choice.  :-)"

Most people seem to agree with me. :)

"Plus, you only put down Sizemore and Peralta; you forgot Sabathia, Cabrera, Carmona, Sowers, and Gutierrez, as all are under 25.  You put down 4 in your list for the Twins - that shows a little bit of biased behavior as well."

I apologize for forgetting Sabathia (for some reason I though he was older), but I wasn't just listing every player on the team that was 25 or younger. I was trying to limit it to the ones actually having some success. I hope this clears it up for you!

"You certainly could have put Sabathia and either Cabrera or Carmona as two other choices to make it a bit more fair.  Or were you afraid that more people might have chosen the Indians if you listed 4 Indians instead, LOL! :-)"

Not at all. If I wanted to discriminate against a team it would've been the Tigers, since they are actually in the division and playing well. I have nothing against mediocre teams like the Indians. :)
The Twins need some easy wins!

by Justin & Joe on Jun 28, 2006 4:17 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wait a minute
Kubel has a much higher ceiling then Peralta and it's amazing how well he's hitting considering he missed an entire season!

.....

I'd take Crain, because he has actually had success at the major league level and is just in a little struggle for the first half of this year, while Carmona has had 0 major league success.

You can't argue that Kubel (no ML success) is better than a struggling Peralta, and then turn around and say that a struggling Crain is better because "Carmona has had 0 major league success."

Go Tribe

by matt k on Jun 28, 2006 3:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dude...
How did you get your blockquote box in green like that?
"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jun 28, 2006 7:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

test
How did you get your blockquote box in green like that?

The source codes shows html with a div class="blockquote" around the quote. If that works the above quote should be the same.

by TT on Jun 28, 2006 11:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My response!
Hello HelloGoodBye,

"Except the whole point of this diary is do discuss young players. Please read titles more carefully in the future."

Yes, but there was a Twins fan, TT I believe, who expanded that age to 27; so I just expanded it to 30 and under, just like abbreviatedman did; in my mind, under 30 is still "young"; over 30 is "old" (though you could argue that 30-32 is "in their prime," not old.  Guys like Boone, 33, are "old." :-)

"Double check your sources in the future, his minor league BA is .310"

As I mentioned above, I looked at the wrong line - sorry - his ML career AVG is .248.  Check my post above to see why I don't think Justin Morneau will become the next Travis Hafner.

Regarding Peralta and Kubel, like I said, Peralta has had one full good season, Kubel has not to this point.  Even if Kubel does have more power and a higher ceiling than Peralta, you expect more power from a LF or RF; you don't expect Peralta's power from a SS, which increases his overall value, possibly giving him a higher overall value to the Indians than Kubel gives to the Twins.

"I'd take Crain, because he has actually had success at the major league level and is just in a little struggle for the first half of this year, while Carmona has had 0 major league success."

Crain kept a low H/9 IP rate in 2005, but had a very low strikeout rate in 2005 (less than Carmona has had in his Minor League stats that many people complained about.)  In 2006, he's increased his K rate, but he's giving up over a H/IP and has an ERA over 5.

Therefore, to say he's had success at the ML level is a bit of a stretch in my opinion.  He's done okay, but hasn't dominated as he was expected to.  To this point, Carmona has done better than him, and Carmona wasn't even expected to be in the bullpen.

"No one in your farm system will match Liriano. So I hope you're not getting your hopes up with kids in high A who can almost strike out a batter per inning. :("

That remains to be seen; a few years ago, I don't think anyone would have expected Liriano to be this good.  That's the main point:  you just never know, just like you never know if Prior or Ankiel won't be as good as projected, as they haven't been.

"Most people seem to agree with me. :)"

Yes, but I know there are several Twins' fans on this site as well. :-)  Admittedly, the Twins have good talent; to say they have the best talent, I think that's debatable, especially depending on what criteria you use (25 and younger, 27 and younger, 30 and younger, Minor League System, etc.)

"I apologize for forgetting Sabathia (for some reason I though he was older), but I wasn't just listing every player on the team that was 25 or younger. I was trying to limit it to the ones actually having some success. I hope this clears it up for you!"

I had a feeling you thought that Sabathia was older - it's amazing for all the years that he has been in baseball, he doesn't turn 26 until the end of July.  That's why I still feel he can have a pretty good career, as he's not even in his "prime" yet (presuming "prime" years is 28-32, which is debatable as well.)

As for success, Cabrera has arguably had more success than Crain, and that was in 2005, so you still could have included him.

Regarding being biased against the Tigers, it's probably annoying that you've won 15 of 16, yet only gained .5 game on the Tigers.  That's arguably a worse scenario than what the Indians faced last year, and the White Sox did finally falter in August and September.

The only way I see the Twins getting back in the race is if the Twins continue to play this hot ball for the rest of the season and the Tigers and White Sox falter, which may happen at some point.  But it may be hard for the Twins to keep playing .900 ball or so the rest of the year as well since the White Sox and Tigers will both have to play .500 ball for a considerable period of time to give the Twins a chance to erase that 11 game deficit.

"Not at all. If I wanted to discriminate against a team it would've been the Tigers, since they are actually in the division and playing well. I have nothing against mediocre teams like the Indians. :)
The Twins need some easy wins!"

That can change from year to year, as I presume the Twins were mediocre last year and the Indians weren't. :-)

As for easy wins, aren't the Dodgers easy enough - they haven't been much of a match for you - I think your games against the Indians have been better matches than what you've been getting from the Dodgers.

Seriously, I was kidding with you in regards to your poll; I figured you forgot about Sabathia and weren't trying to "short-change" the Indians.
Just having some good-natured fun with you. :-)

Just my 5 cents.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 28, 2006 11:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Stuff
Morneau is hitting .281/.337/.548 and just turned 25. Even if he's not Hafner (and I'm assuming you mainly just want to talk how awesome Hafner is), he's probably going to be a very legit, near-All Star quality type of bat for years to come. I doubt anybody is going to complain if he continues on his development track.

Kubel's going to be a really good hitter and probably would've had a good 2005 in the majors if not for the fluke injury. Peralta looked good last year but has turned into a K machine with contact issues. It's pretty clear that Kubel is going to hit and most likely hit very well, which makes him worth more than a guy who can't keep getting himself out.

I'm not sure if you ignored this or if you just didn't see it, but here you go:

Crain 2006 BABIP: .374
Cabrera 2006 BABIP: .302

One of these guys is REALLY unlucky and, as I mentioned before, I'll leave it to you to figure out who that is. I'd say the bigger stretch is saying that a guy who's posted an ERA under 3 in 2 of his first three seasons "hasn't dominated like he was supposed to". Especially when we're comparing him to a guy like Cabrera who looks like he's throwing the ball all over the place.

You're right that the Twins don't have the best collection of "young" talent. Arizona, Florida, Tampa Bay all have better collections of young talent than Minnesota. Cleveland compared to Minnesota? It would be very close and subject to personal opinion.

Ah yes, the White Sox did falter . . .only to win anyways, then proceed to the playoffs and win the World Series. Thanks for the memories. Fortunately for the Indians things have gone completely differently this year . . .oh wait.

The Indians HAVE to be more than a little worried after the way this year has gone. If you had said that Hafner and Sizemore were going to have All-Star years (and I expect Sizemore to be a serious candidate, as Ozzie loves him), first base was going to be a position of strength, and that Belliard, V-Mart and the now-injured Casey Blake were going to have solid-to-good years, I'd figure them to be competing for first place. That they aren't should be a cause for concern, especially as I have no clue how they'll fix their pitching staff. They can't out-hit the White Sox and they'll never out-pitch the Indians and the Twins.

by mrkupe on Jun 29, 2006 12:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You like to rub it in about your WS victory? :-)
Hello mrkupe,

First, I mentioned the fact that the Indians had a tough hill to climb last year and nearly did it - the Twins' only real chance is if either or both the Tigers and White Sox falter enough and allow the Twins to get back into it, and that's only if they stay hot, which will be hard for the Twins to do for the rest of the year; the Indians were just hot and they only did it for two months.  Even with Santana and Liriano, it's doubtful they can go 15 for 16 consistently, and only gaining a .5 game on the Tigers can't be good for morale.

Speaking of hills to climb, the White Sox now have to chase the Tigers instead of being chased by the Indians; based on what the Tigers are doing this year and Leyland leading them, I doubt they go away, so you may have your own dogfight to contend with, and right now, you're on the short end.

Cabrera has been more on target lately, especially compared to earlier in the year.  Recall also that Cabrera participated in the WBC, which probably did not help him - Cabrera even admitted to as much.  It probably didn't help Belliard to get on track until a few weeks ago either.  That's probably also why Santana wasn't really on until May.  Selig should seriously consider playing the WBC after the season after the several injuries and inconsistent performances of players on several teams in the early part of this season.

My personal opinion of the 2006 Indians:  When you have "automatic outs" like Boone and Hollandsworth in your lineup, combined with rookies who haven't established themselves yet (Gutierrez and Shoppach,) that's why the offense hasn't been that consistent.  Plus, while the stats of Victor and Belliard look good, they haven't been good in clutch situations, just like many of the Indians haven't been of late, even Hafner and Sizemore.  

The Indians get in the habit of pulling the ball too much (don't know if they're trying too hard, trying to hit HRs, or what.)  Also, their defense has been the worst in baseball, probably because of the decline of Boone, the inconsistencies of Belliard and Peralta, and the poor throwing of Martinez.

I've questioned whether Peralta or Martinez are in the best places on the diamond - their offenses may be premium for their positions, but can you live with their defense?  Victor only has trouble with throwing out runners; Peralta has trouble in virtually every aspect - picking up balls, throwing on the run, etc.

I've also questioned having more speed on this team and emphasizing the fundamentals more, including small ball.  Some of my fellow posters at LetsGoTribe disagree with me, but I really believe speed would make a difference on this ballclub, as only Sizemore and Gutierrez could even be considered base-stealing threats and speed does help you to avoid DPs, like the one Peralta hit into tonight.  Plus, many speed guys have to focus on the fundamentals to be solid players - Eckstein comes to mind.  I wish the Indians had more of the scrappy, pesky type players like they once did (Lofton, Vizquel, Alomar, etc.)

Actually, the pitching has been quite good lately - C.C. had just faltered in his last two starts, plus the "brain-cramp" game against the Cubs, but Lee, Westbrook, and Byrd have all rebounded nicely.  Johnson wasn't good; that's why Sowers is now in his place, and should be better than him in time, if not immediately.

As for the bullpen, the biggest problems were Graves, Sauerbeck, and Mota.  Graves is at AAA Buffalo, inconsistent with good and bad outings, Sauerbeck is gone and now in Oakland, where I think he was hit in his first outing, and Mota hasn't been used much - supposedly, his velocity is 94-96, but he has no command.  

Really the bullpen has consisted of Betancourt, Carmona, Perez, and Wickman, and for the most part, it's been pretty good (the loss by Wickman tonight was really due to Shoppach dropping a pop-up and Peralta throwing a ball away on a routine grounder.)  Sprinkle in a little bit of Cabrera and Mujica, and the bullpen hasn't been bad recently either.

It's been mostly the inconsistent offense and the poor defense that has sabotaged the Indians over the last month or so.

It depends on how many trades Shapiro makes over the next month, but if he can make a few solid trades, sign a few decent to good free agents, and the young talent from the farm meshes with the young talent already on the Indians, the Indians could maybe contend again as soon as next year.  It could be a one-year hiatus like the Twins experienced last year, though the Twins are still out of it only because the Tigers and White Sox have such a big lead, not because of the Twins' good play of late.

Shapiro and Wedge are both not thrilled with what has transpired this year, but being Shapiro has made more right moves than wrong (this year being the first real year where things did not turn out as expected,) I think the Indians will be on track to compete in the AL Central by 2008 at the latest, and quite possibly, 2007, as the defense can't get much worse and the offense will probably be retuned, along with an emphasis of relaxing and not trying to do too much in clutch situations, which I think this team is prone of doing too often.

Just my 5 cents. :-)

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 29, 2006 1:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response
The White Sox have the second best record in the majors. They're leading the wild card by 7 games. Detroit has been outstanding this year and there's nothing wrong with trailing them. While the White Sox would like to catch Detroit (mostly because catching them would mean winning games, and teams like to win games), nobody is going to complain about the position that they're currently in.

I seem to recall saying a while back that Martinez was a bad defensive catcher and you said in response that it was the fault of the pitchers. Apparently you've changed your mind on this.

by mrkupe on Jun 29, 2006 1:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's not quite accurate!
Hello mrkupe,

Regarding Martinez, he's not a bad defensive catcher - he's actually quite good at blocking balls, and has shown he can call a good game (last year, the team ERA was under around 3.50 or so if I recall correctly.  This year, I think I heard it was around 5, though Johnson's ERA and the slow start by Lee, Westbrook, and Byrd may have had something to do with that.)

No, the only problem I have is with his throwing, but I doubt the Indians move him out from behind the plate any time soon.  Probably the same thing with Peralta - he'll probably stay at SS.  I just wonder if the Indians are looking too much at offense and not enough at defense and fundamentals, though admittedly, that bad throw by Peralta would have probably been scooped by Broussard or Perez.  Victor has only played a handful of games at first, so that had something to do with it as well.

Victor has always had trouble with his throwing mechanics, plus has only an average arm at best.  He actually rated as the best defensive catcher in either the Carolina League, the Eastern League, or both as he was coming up.  

Some still suggest that our starters are still part of the reason we can't stop the running game; none of our pitchers are really great at controlling the running game; combine that with Victor's average arm and bad throwing mechanics, and that's the formula for basestealers running on you all day.  

So, no offense, calling him a bad "defensive" catcher is inaccurate.  Saying he doesn't throw out runners very well or has a weak arm and bad throwing mechanics is accurate, which doesn't take into account blocking balls or calling a good game, which is also part of a catcher's "defense."

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Jun 29, 2006 7:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Jesse Crain Myths
OK...here's a little episode of MythBusters...

Myth #1: Jesse Crain has lost velocity.

BUSTED: He now throws a 2-seam, not a 4-seam fastball.  He can still throw the 4-seamer 98, but he prefers to work the 2-seamer to induce grounders.

Myth #2: Jesse Crain is having a bad year.

BUSTED: He has perhaps the most ridiculous set of periperal stats of any middle reliever.  If I told you a reliever was striking out 7.79/9, had a 5:1 K:BB ratio, and a 2.52 GB/FB ratio, you'd tell me that he's a rare pitcher who can strike batters out, limit walks, all while inducing grounders at a very high rate.

Myth #3: Jesse Crain had a better year last year.

BUSTED: He has a better K/9, better BB/9, better GB/FB, better K:BB, and better velocity and sink on his pitches.  The only difference?  Nearly 40% of those batted balls went for hits this year, a lot of which was due to the crappy Twins defense.

If you look into Fernando Cabrera's stats, you see a young pitcher who needs to improve his control, and who has a bad GB/FB.  If you look into Jesse Crain's stats, you see a dominant reliever waiting for sample size to even out.

by limozeen on Jun 28, 2006 4:32 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On Crain
Although his peripherals show he should be much better, Crain's ERA is still much higher than last year. The peripherals show he should improve over the 2nd half but right now his ERA is too high to consider him better than last year.

Also, Liriano is better than any pitcher the Indians have and Mauer is better than any hitter the Indians have. I'd take Sizemore and Peralta over Kubel and Morneau though, Sizemore is a monster.

Dustin Pedroia is the man

by Lesterfan on Jun 28, 2006 8:04 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Grady
Sorry Twins fans... I'm not buying that Kubel and Morneau are better than Sizemore. Neither has proven themselves at the majors to the degree that Sizemore has. And a first basemen REALLY needs to mash to have more value than a CF.

Sizemore (36.7) is 7th in MLB in VORP while Morneau (16.1) is 83rd.

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jun 28, 2006 9:22 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sizemore
I'm not buying that Kubel and Morneau are better than Sizemore.

Well, neither am I, if that is based on my comments above. But either one of them may turn out to be as good or better than Sizemore. As long as Sizemore plays centerfield his numbers are outstanding. But move him to a corner, which is where I think he will spend most of his career, and he and Kubel will be comparable. Morneau should hit better and for a lot more power than either of them. But, I agree Kubel and Morneau need to show the last month or so are a step up in their development, not just a hot streak.

Mauer is on another planet at the moment. He is a gold glove quality catcher who is hitting close to .390. That won't last, but he is still well ahead of Sizemore.

As for Crain's babip,the reason it is high is Crain has pitched lousy on occasion, not because he is unlucky. But Crain remains a very good reliever.

The Twins current rotation has Santana, Liriano, Silva and Bonser all 27 or younger. Their bullpen includes Crain, Rincon and Guerrier(on the DL) who have shown they are quality relievers. Even Lohse is only 27.  And they still have Baker and Durbin sitting at AAA with Perkins and Garza behind them at AA.

by TT on Jun 28, 2006 10:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cle vs. Min
I love this Clev vs Minn battle.  

by ChrisRef19 on Jun 28, 2006 9:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

completely ignored
2B Jorge Cantu
LF Carl Crawford
CF Rocco Baldelli
DH Jonny Gomes
SP Scott Kazmir
SP Jamie Shields
RP Edwin Jackson
C Dioner Navarro

Kazmir is just as much of an ace as Liriano, plus he's younger if I'm not mistaken.

Cantu, Crawford, Baldelli, and Gomes are a better offensive group than any of the other teams mentioned here.
The Twins are the only other option because of Mauer, who is arguably the best at his position.

Here's how I would compare the similar players:

Kazmir = Liriano
Crawford > Kubel
Gomes = Morneau
Shields > Bonser
Cantu > Bartlett
Jackson = Crain
Mauer > Navarro

If minors is included...

Young, Dukes, Upton > Twins Minor League System

So it's nearly even in the majors with the advantage to the Rays including major league ready prospects.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Jun 28, 2006 9:58 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kaz is 10 months older
And, uh, if it works for you to list Mauer at the end of that list (as a 9.7 WARP3 player) and merely "greater than" Navarro, you don't seem to get the point of this exercise.

And no, Jackson doesn't equal Crain.  Crain is a relief ace.  Jackson is a AAAA washout.

Kaz has control issues.  He's my favorite non-Twins pitcher in the league, but he has problems with his command and has given up really bad outings on several occasions.  Plus he is a small guy with a less-than-clean injury history.  I hesitate to say that Liriano is a better pitcher right now, simply because Kaz has 1.5 seasons of near-ace performance while Liriano has half.  But Liriano clearly has a higher physical ceiling and is pitching better right now.  Past performance might make this close to a push, but simply saying Kazmir = Liriano doesn't really capture the situation.

The D-Rays have a good system, and I'm not denying that.  It may be better than the Twins'.  I just don't think you're doing a fair comparison.

by limozeen on Jun 28, 2006 12:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not saying I necessarily disagree with you overall
... but you shouldn't be talking about Kazmir's "less-than-clean injury history" when comparing him to Liriano.  That's a bit of a glossing over of Liriano's checkered past.

by abbreviatedman on Jun 28, 2006 2:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh I realize that
I wasn't comparing him to Liriano in respect to injuries, just that the fact that he's undersized and has had strain injuries is a tad alarming...as are Liriano's arm troubles.

by limozeen on Jun 28, 2006 7:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kaz vs Liriano
Kazmir does have control issues, but his walk rate has done nothing but drop since he arrived in the majors. I actually prefer his fastball command to Liriano's, but Liriano's command with his slider is obviously superior to either of Kazmir's secondary pitches . . .or to most other pitches around MLB, for that matter.

Not sure what you mean by the "less-than-clean" injury history. I recall him missing time a few years ago with an abdominal strain or an oblique strain or something like that when he was in A ball. I can't recall any arm problems, although I suppose there's a chance that he was shut down as a precautionary measure years ago. Still, he hasn't had any issues since arriving in MLB, and in any case I think they're a just LITTLE less minor than Liriano missing large parts of seasons with arm problems.

It's tough to compare the two statistically in some ways, because Kazmir basically had half a season of Double A before sticking in the majors. Liriano spent significant time in the upper minors and it certainly shows, and for the moment teams are still clearly in the "adjustment" phase against him. I think things will eventually even out for the most part.

While Liriano reminds me a lot of Santana, Kazmir reminds me a lot of a lefty Roy Oswalt in terms of size, stuff and makeup. When somebody asks "which of these two is going to be better?", in all honesty, my answer is "Who cares? They're both going to be among the best pitchers in the majors barring injuries for years to come." It's not like one of them is going to be a league-average pitcher and the other is going to be Santana-esque.

by mrkupe on Jun 28, 2006 3:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The real comparisons...
Kazmir <<< Liriano (I like Kazmir, but come on, it's not even close)
Baldeli < Kubel (A more fair comparison considering they both haven't had much major-league experience and are coming off a major injury)
Gomes << Morneau (More power and a better BA)
Shields > Bonser (Maybe, I don't know enough about Shields, but no considers Bonser to be a hot young player.)
Lugo > Bartlett
Jackson << Crain
Mauer >>> Navarro

by Justin & Joe on Jun 28, 2006 2:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lol
Cantu (not Lugo) vs. Bartlett, and you're still forgetting Carl Crawford entirely.  No way Kubel is higher than Baldelli at the moment though.  Maybe a little while from now, but not right this minute.  Worst you can reasonably say there is even, not even taking into account that Baldelli is a plus CF and Kubel is an average-at-best RF.  Even bringing up guys like Tiffee must be a joke of some sort.

I'd put most of the comps between Hello and YAK.  I don't think I'd put Liriano that far ahead of Kazmir either.  Maybe a little, but jury's still out.  I'd still like to see how Liriano handles a full length season starting to make sure his body doesn't break down.

Mauer is way past whatever the Rays have at catcher, Crawford is way past whatever the Twins have in the outfield, Crain is way past anything the Rays have in the pen (Orvella hasn't even been mentioned, though, despite an off-year so far), and Cantu is way past anything the Twins have in the middle infield.  Take the rest of it for what you will.  By the end of the year, when the Rays have called up BJ Upton and Delmon Young, while the Twins have called up nobody of particular significance, it won't be much of a contest.

"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on Jun 28, 2006 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just for a quick comp
on Baldelli and Kubel:

Kubel is exactly 8 months younger, so not a big advantage there.

Rocco plays CF well, Kubel plays agerage RF (I'll give him extra benefit of the doubt, although even before his injury he wasn't thought of as a great fielder)

Current lines:
Kubel: .291/.319/.491 through 110 ABs
Baldelli: .348/.419/.652 through 66 ABs

Baldelli is better than Kubel in each isolated rate statistic so far this year and has 2 additional years of major league experience.

Highest prospect ranking: Kubel - #17; Rocco - #2

Kubel has NEVER been more highly regarded than Rocco, especially considering that their injuries coincided with each other.  

Hence, without waiting much longer for personal predictions to bear out, it's asinine to say that Kubel is better than Rocco right this minute.

QED

"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on Jun 28, 2006 2:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Current or Future
This was the question and I think we are a little off track:

Which AL baseball organization has the best young talent (25 and under) already on the major league team?

I take that to mean current talent, not how good the player is projected to be at some point in the future. And while 25 is arbitrary, its a reasonable point of departure.

Mauer probably isn't going to hit close to .400, but he is still a huge current talent. The question for the Twins is whether Morneau, Liriano and Kubel are really this good. Crain is clearly a solid reliever and Bonser is really still just a prospect. As are Bartlett and Tiffee for that matter, but they are both too old for this discussion. As are Cuddyer, Silva and Santana.

If Tampa Bay calls up Young and Upton this year, my bet is that neither one is an immediate star. They may be in the future, but we are talking about current, not future, production. The world is littered with can't miss prospects who do.

Tampa doesn't really have anyone under 25 who is pitching like Liriano or hitting like Mauer. Right now those two are among the best players of any age in the major leagues.

by TT on Jun 28, 2006 2:42 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again
"Tampa doesn't really have anyone under 25 who is pitching like Liriano"

Scott Kazmir, once you account for Liriano's sample size.  He's been beat up his past couple starts, but their component ratios as starters are very similar.

Nobody's hitting like Mauer, period.  If you're going by a week to week ranking or month to month, the Twins might be ahead, but for the most part, they have a lot of hot bats right now, which sort of inflates the true values.  The Rays still have better upder 25 hitting depth overall, on the other hand, with 5 legitimate under 25 starters as opposed to 3 for the Twins.  Twins obviously have the overall edge on pitching, on the other hand.

"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on Jun 28, 2006 3:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kaz and Liriano
the big thing is the command.  Liriano has come to the majors with MLB-ready command.  Kazmir has had an adjustment period.  On the development curve, Liriano is ahead of Kazmir despite being the better part of a year younger.

Don't get me wrong, Kazmir is a great pitcher.  He's arguably just as good as Liriano because he's been a good MLB starter for longer.  But in terms of ratios and current performance, Liriano has a clear advantage.

by limozeen on Jun 28, 2006 7:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kazmir versus Liriano
Scott Kazmir, once you account for Liriano's sample size.

I don't think Kazmir is pitching as well as Liriano. Or really even close to it. He has pitched more than 5 innings only twice since the start of June. That ia not ace material. By contrast, Liriano is averaging 7 IP in June and has not gone less than 6 since his second start. It may be that Kazmir is just in a slight slump and that the league will catch up to Liriano. But so far Liriano is a couple steps ahead of Kazmir.

they have a lot of hot bats right now, which sort of inflates the true values.

It may be that they are hot. It may also be that some guys who are in their early 20's are finally adjusting to the big leagues. Kubel, Morneau and Mauer are not really doing anything beyond what might have been expected. Mauer has always been one of those young uber-prospects like Griffey and Rodriguez who have the potential to be hall of famers.

by TT on Jun 28, 2006 4:46 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

.390
is a hot bat, period.  Not something you see every day.  
"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on Jun 28, 2006 11:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FLA
How 'bout some love for the Marlins, that team is going to be good and soon.  Johnson, Olsen, Nolasco, Vargas, Willis, Sanchez, Tankersley, Kensing, maybe Mitre, all at pitcher.
Can you believe that Miguel Cabrera is only 23?!? Hermida, Uggla, Jacobs, Hanley Ramirez, Willingham, Abercrombie.
Josh Willingham is the oldest of all of those guys at 27.  This team is going to be very very good.

by Furious George on Jun 28, 2006 10:04 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Career Year?
.390 is a hot bat, period.  Not something you see every day.  

Mauer hit .319 in April, .386 in May. He is at .456 for June. If he keeps improving at this rate he will hit over .500 in July. It may be he is having a career year.

by TT on Jun 28, 2006 11:57 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Career year???
I find it hard to believe he will have his best season as a 23 year old; years before his "prime."

by Justin & Joe on Jun 29, 2006 1:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Yet
It wouldn't be the first time it's happened.
God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jun 30, 2006 12:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hear ya
I didn't mean he can't sustain it for a season, only that nobody would reasonably "expect" him to bat .390.  .320 might be a reasonable estimation.  Long term, I still expect all three of them and Liriano to be very good.  Over the long haul, would I rather have Liriano, Mauer, Kubel, Morneau and Crain or Kazmir, CC, Cantu, Rocco and Orvella?  Probably the former, but throw in Gomes, (and even if they don't pan out) Navarro and Jackson where the Twins don't have anyone to match, and I think that pushes the Rays over (presuming that Shields and Bonser is a wash).
"If there wasn't nine guys out in the field, I'd have a hit every time except when I strike out." - Delmon Young

by Brickhaus on Jun 29, 2006 1:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i love how

 the creator of this thread puts: <<<< best answer

 next to the Twins on this.

 homer much?

by High Heater on Jun 29, 2006 12:04 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maur's
a frickin hall of famer at age 23 and mornaue is on tex's career path

nuf said

by dryice on Jun 29, 2006 10:37 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dude.
It's a little early to call Mauer a future hall of famer.  The list of future hall of famers who don't make it is very, very long.  He's in his second year.  Calm down.

As to Morneau's career path mirroring Tex's, it's a little early.  Also (and conversely), wouldn't you want to compare him to someone who's not slugging .437?

by abbreviatedman on Jun 30, 2006 12:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

taking the long view on tex.
his stats this year are within normal tolerances... arod last year, this year,,etc

morneau to me, is a left handed version of Tex,
but with maybe more power.

mauer...well, challenging Ted William's record in second full year - unreal.

by dryice on Jun 30, 2006 6:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Uh
No A's love? SO far i only see Twins-Indians..

What about the A's, who's whole team is young talent. In fact, i think 18-25 players are under 30.

Here's talent:

Swisher. Street. Haren. Harden. Crosby. Blanton. And to a lesser extent: Ellis. Dan Johnson.

And then the "veterans": Zito (27), Chavez (28), Duchscherer (28), Milton Bradley (28),Joe Kennedy (27).

And more solid younguns like Brad Halsey, Chad Gaudin, and Kirk Sarloos, none of whicher are older than 27.

I mean, the core of the Á's is a bunch of 2nd and 3rd year players, along with two young veterans. Can they get some credit please?

I think that's better than the Twins. I mean the question is young talent on the major league squad. So basically, the A's have 2 consecutive ROY's, the ERA leader for rookies last year, this years breakout player in Nick Swisher, Dan Johnson, one of the best young pitchers in the game (albeit injured), Dan "the Man" Haren. The A's have a pack of good young players, while the Twins have one of the best young pitchers in the game, that amazingly good catcher, and a 1B on a hot streak (YTBD if this will last).

(After pitcher tells GM he will pitch half of the games, complete them and they will all be QS)The GM has an orgasm and a heart attack at the same time.-Shamus

by ohad on Jun 30, 2006 6:50 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

25 and Under
Swisher. Street. Haren. Harden. Crosby. Blanton. And to a lesser extent: Ellis. Dan Johnson.

Crosby is 26 years old. Ellis and Johnson are 27.  So the young players are really Street, Haren, Harden, Blanton and Swisher.  By the end of the year, all but Street will be over 25.

So, on the offensive side, the Twins have Mauer, Morneau and Kubel compared to Swisher. And on the pitching side they have Liriano, Bonser and Crain compared to Street, Haren, Blanton, Halsey and Gaudin.

When you move up to 27 and under, the A's add some players. But so do the Twins: Cuddyer, Santana, Silva, Rincon, Bartlett, Rodriguez, Tiffee, Lohse, Guerrier, Eyre.

This is a somewhat artificial exercise in any case. The reason some players are on the roster is because the team is weak at that position, not because they are so highly talented. And there are talented players in the minor leagues because they are blocked at the major league level.

by TT on Jun 30, 2006 11:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Breakout players
Why don't we wait until the end of the year to talk about who the breakout players are. Hot starts have a way of cooling off. Shelton was the breakout player in April wasn't he?  There are plenty of other young players who could get hot before the end of the year, including Kubel. And if Mauer is still hitting .390 at the end of the year, that's about 90 points higher than his lifetime average. I would call him the breakout player.

by TT on Jun 30, 2006 4:54 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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