Mike Napoli

by John Sickels on Jun 27, 2006 12:53 PM EDT in News Comment 31 comments

Making Sense out of Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli seems to have taken firm hold of the Angels catching job, pushing aside the more-heralded Jeff Mathis. Let's take a look at Napoli and see if this is going to last.

First, here is what I wrote about Napoli in the 2006 Baseball Prospect Book:

That's a fairly positive comment all things considered. Here is some more on Napoli, this time from the July 31st, 2005 edition of the John Sickels Baseball Newsletter, written after watching Napoli play several games in Double-A:

Mike Napoli, C
Hitting .238/.382/.482, 20 homers, 72 walks, 101 strikeouts in 101 games, 328 at-bats. An excellent example of a power-patience-low-batting-average hitter. Napoli is very patient, works the count extremely well, and is difficult to fool more than once with the same pitch, at least on the outer half. His swing is "long," and he can be tied up inside, but he punishes mistakes out over the plate. He is an extreme pull hitter, and also an extreme fly ball hitter with loft in his swing. Even his outs tend to be deep (or high) fly balls. His defense is in the "good enough if he hits" category, but he'll never win any Gold Gloves, and would likely fit best as a 1B/C/DH platoon type guy. The question here is batting average. Even if he draws lots of walks and keeps his OBP at a reasonable level, he might not hit much higher than .220 at the Major League level, and it's hard for a guy like that to get playing time. But he is very interesting to watch, and I'd sure like to see what he can do with 500 at-bats.

Baseball America rated Napoli as the Number 11 Angels prospect heading into 2006, writing in their Prospect Handbook that Napoli "is streaky and not polished enough defensively to warrant every day play as a catcher. . .".

So, here we are in late June, 2006. Napoli is currently hitting .295/.435/.581 for the Angels. In 105 at-bats, he has 8 homers, 24 walks, and 38 strikeouts.

How sustainable is this?

In 1649 career professional at-bats entering 2006, Napoli had 301 walks and 515 strikeouts. His BB/AB ratio was .182, his K/AB ratio was .312. In Double-A in 2005, his marks were BB/AB .200, K/AB .319. His comparable marks in the majors this year: BB/AB .229, K/AB .362. In the majors, he is both walking and striking out more than he did in the minor leagues.

Now, I don't know what that means, to be honest. My guess, from having watched him play in the minors and on TV this year, is that we will see his batting average drop as the pitchers adjust to him, but that his power and walks will remain strong. I still expect him to be a Mickey Tettleton-type.. And Mickey Tettleton was a fine player.

I don't have a feel for Napoli's defense this year and would be very interested in comments from Angels fans or others who have seen him play a lot. Are the Angels happy with his glove? If his hitting tails off, how patient will they be with him?

0 recs | Comment 31 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

So...

Who gets your endorsement for the future, Mathis or Napoli? Inquiring minds want to know (well, at least I do). :-)

by Havok1517 on Jun 27, 2006 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

napoil

Today I would say Napoli. But yesterday I was thinking Mathis.

by John Sickels on Jun 27, 2006 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Way to commit John

lmao

by Havok1517 on Jun 27, 2006 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why commit to just one?

Few teams start their catchers more than 110-120 times per year without playing other positions.

In my opinion, the most reasonable scenario by the end of 2007 would include the following (more or less in order):

A drop in Napoli's short-term value (until he begins to take AB's at 1B/DH, as you'd said in the BPB).
A re-evaluation on the part of the Angels favoring Mathis to get at least a 50% of the starts at catcher.
Both players playing 100+ games in 2008, if not earlier. Think in terms of Craig Wilson and Jason Kendall in Pittsburgh a few years ago.

I don't believe Mathis was overhyped. He never had the solid 2:3 or 3:5 BB:K ratios one would hope to see from a minor-league hitter, but Mathis managed adequate or better batting averages, OBP's, low enough K/AB or K/PA rates, and fields the position well enough to be an adequate starter (and much better than Napoli).

For other Napoli comparisons, consider Dave Ross. His stock is also remarkably high compared to his career stats. He's a similarly streaky hitter, like Napoli. Does anyone really expect Dave Ross to bat over .300 for a full season, even with the help of a great lineup and ballpark in Cincy? Hedge all expectations of Napoli similarly.

I also don't understand why pitchers would continue to walk Napoli. Looking at his MLB splits so far this year, Napoli's home park is already hurting him (because he's an extreme flyball hitter), and the rest of his division's ballparks not located in TX won't help him, either. The splits indicate just how streaky and temporary his success has been.

Once pitchers and managers take a closer look at Napoli's first 105 MLB at-bats, they should take notice of these facts:

38 strikeouts.
35 contact outs (15 GO/20 AO).
31 hits.
14 extra-base hits (6 2B, 8 HR).

As long as the pitcher has enough command to throw strikes, he should. Napoli is most likely to strikeout, more likely to produce an out than a hit when he makes contact, and more likely to hit a ground ball (no GIDP's yet, but surely they will come in time) than an extra-base hit (almost 2x as likely to groundout than to homer). And surely there is at least one hole in his swing which opposing teams will find, too.

Remember when Jonny Gomez was batting .300? I still think he can do that for an entire season a few times in his career, much like Geoff Jenkins; however, these are all streaky hitters which may fall out of favor with their teams at any given time if their defense and baserunning are also consistently sub-par with any amount of competition. Jenkins established himself with a bad team with few options, and wasn't a horrible defender.

Napoli vs. Mathis is not over. The odds are way against Napoli rendering Mathis irrelevant for long, and chances are good that the Angels will turn to Mathis (or some free agent or trade acquisition) rather than Napoli for most of their catching duties fairly soon.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 27, 2006 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dave ross

i don't think anybody expects napoli to hit .300, but i think the dave ross comp is a little cold. ross had that famous 10-homer romp in 03 (the first one was off mark grace), but aside from that and some solid numbers as a 25-year-old in the PCL, there isn't a lot on his resume. after some injuries early in his career, napoli has really done nothing but hit the last couple years. plus if he's really making an adjustment to go the other way more, on top of the track record he already has - i don't know, i just find him a very interesting hitter.

is grounding out twice as often as you homer really some kind of red flag? what's the league average?

of course i like gomes too. they're all acting like this shoulder injury is just a fielding issue but for all that it sure seems to be doing a good job of screwing up his hitting.

by wily mo on Jun 27, 2006 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

the dave ross comp is really out of the blue...meant to denigrate, not illuminate, for sure.

i do agree, though, that both napoli and mathis will be playing semi-full-time within a year or so, if not before.

by scooter on Jun 28, 2006 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not meant to denigrate

I thought Ross was a decent comparison for now (not necessarily for their careers) because prior to 2006, both had low batting averages and high strikeout rates with raw power. Both are currently hitting for high averages with power now, and I think both have temporarily emerged out of the blue with their current levels of performance.

Furthermore, I would gladly trade my working life (a former English teacher who lives a little or a lot of Office Space more often than not) for either Dave Ross's or Mike Napoli's baseball careers -- not because what they do is easy (much more physical work involved, actually), but because I love baseball and I respect each of them for successfully playing in the big leagues.

On another note, I do not presume to have the power to "illuminate" anyone about anything. I'm just another fan who looks at numbers and expresses an opinion. Even in the event that someone reads something I've posted and realizes something which he or she had not previously known or considered, it is still up to him or her to make the connection. I registered to this site because I enjoy reading and learning more about baseball and interacting with other baseball fans.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 28, 2006 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ross and more

Actually, I'd forgotten that Ross had hit that HR off Mark Grace. At the time, I had been too preoccupied with the the Mike Fetters impersonation, which was funny on one level and a sad display of how far that game had deteriorated below any amount of competitiveness.

...aside from [that 10-HR romp in 2003] and some solid numbers as a 25-year-old in the PCL, there isn't a lot on [Dave Ross's] resume. after some injuries early in his career, napoli has really done nothing but hit the last couple years.

In 2004, Napoli was playing his fourth year of A-ball. A torn labrum in 2003 certainly played some role in his A-ball stagnation, but his batting statistics had been less than impressive until then anyway. It was the third time he had spent all or part of a season at high-A Rancho Cucamonga, so I'm not surprised that he set career highs at that point. That is still the only time that Napoli batted .270+ in a full season to date.

Last season, he batted .237 in double-A with 31 HR, but he's done more than just hit in the past two years. In both seasons (and in his minor league career), he struck out nearly 1/3 of the time.

Napoli will turn 24 in October, and he could probably have used some time in the PCL. It isn't too late for him to finish this season or spent part of next season in the minors, either. So far, I think he's overachieving quite a bit in the Show considering his career minor-league average of .255 and extremely high K rate.

Napoli may be making adjustments, but they are not apparent on his hit chart at the Angels' homepage. At this time, the chart only shows one of Napoli's eight HR going to the opposite field (at Angels' stadium), and a strong trend toward pulling the ball to left field overall. Since four of his last six HR have been hit on the road, that lone opposite-field HR did not represent the beginning of a new trend, either.

The difference between Napoli's minor league career and his current performance suggests that he must continue to work several adjustments ahead of the league in order to maintain his elevated level of performance. I like rooting for the underdogs, and it will be a great story if Napoli establishes himself as a top catcher this year and continues to have a successful career. I simply think that his a lofty expectation for now, and I expect him to experience some growing pains sooner than later.

...i just find him a very interesting hitter.

I think catchers are usually more interesting hitters in general. Am I the only one who remembers a theory about catchers taking longer to mature than other players? I heard and read about that often about 5-6 years ago while Jason Varitek (age 26 or 27) and Paul Lo Duca (at age 29) were establishing themselves as MLB regulars. I'm not sure that was ever truly the norm, but if so, the trend seems to have switched recently. Many catchers have made their MLB debut at age 24 or earlier in the past few years, including John Buck, Joe Mauer, Miguel Olivo, Victor Martinez, Chris Snyder, Russell Martin, Napoli and Mathis. That list is only a few examples in no particular order.

If this longer learning curve theory is the norm, then perhaps Dave Ross has been putting it together since the second half of last season (when he was 28 years old), or perhaps it's entirely too soon to speculate anything meaningful about Napoli or Mathis.

I prefer to set expectations based on a player's demonstrated skill set rather than purely or mostly by his age. I'm skeptical about Ross and Napoli because both of them have struggled to hit for average (or average contact, for that matter) until recently, despite the fact that they are two very different players in terms of age and potential for improvement.

is grounding out twice as often as you homer really some kind of red flag? what's the league average?

I don't know the league average. The breakdown of Napoli's first 105 at-bats was meant to illustrate that a pitcher should not be so afraid of him. At that time, the most frequent outcome was a strikeout, then a contact out, then a hit. The greater number of ground balls than extra-base hits should be a sign to pitchers that Napoli is not crushing the ball often enough to pitch around him just yet.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 28, 2006 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting

indeed, the hit chart does still look pretty pull-oriented.

by wily mo on Jun 30, 2006 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Napoli comments

Having seen Napoli play a lot this year, here are my comments.

The glove is fine, but nothing special. He is far better than Matt LeCroy thats for sure. His mobility is a bit below average but he is excellent on balls in the dirt. His arm is weak but he has a VERY quick release and his accuracy is above average. Overall I'd say an average defender.

His bat really stands out. His plate discipline is almost in the "elite" category. I saw him work a 3-0 count, got it to 3-2, then took a walk, never swinging the bat. Take that for what its worth. His power is obvious and I really like the way he can go to the opposite field for homers. The strikeouts haven't hurt him this year yet. He is very good at making contact with runners on base. I think it helps that he is a flyball hitter since he is slow, but not Molina slow, and it helps get him sac flies. Overall, the power and the patience are definitely for real, but I agree that when the pitchers figure him out, the batting average will drop.

by cronie on Jun 27, 2006 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

plate discipline

I've watched him play this year and I would say he's almost in the elite category in terms of plate discipline. I have seen him chase some pretty bad pitches in the dirt. He does have very solid plate discipline though.

I think you are used to watching the "Mickey Hatcher's Angels" type hitters, so anyone who takes a walk is Barry Bonds like. LOL.

by UncleMiltie on Jun 28, 2006 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

opposite field

Now, that's interesting that you say he's an opposite field hitter. When I saw him in the minors he was a strict pull hitter. Has this changed this year? Maybe that's why he's hitting for a higher average?

by John Sickels on Jun 27, 2006 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Napoli

He isn't an opposite field hitter strictly, because I've seen him crush balls over left field, but he definitely has power to right field. He hit a double off the right field wall last night and I went to a game where he hit a homer over right field and a double into right center. If its on the outside he takes it to right. So I think an adjustment has been made.

by cronie on Jun 27, 2006 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Napoli

Has done a better job using his power to drive pitches to all fields. His approach appears to be very close to Adam Dunn in sense that he will take strike three unless he feels he can make hard contact. His defense has been a pleasant surprise since the last time I had seen him behind the plate for the Quakes. At times he has trouble blocking balls and his throws have been wild at times but he has held his own and appears to be making the necessary adjustments. Other than Orlando Cabrera Napoli has been the only consistent source of offense for the Angels. I believe that in the future Napoli will serve the C/DH/1B role with Mathis also catching for the Angels.

by riktermiller on Jun 27, 2006 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tettleton

I think most teams would like to have a Mickey Tettleton type behind the plate. That'd be quite the player for the Angels, and they could move Mathis for something in the future if things stay the same.

by Marc Normandin on Jun 27, 2006 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

adjustment

If true, that such an adjustment has been made and he can stick with it, going with the pitch, then I would definitely take Napoli over Mathis.

by John Sickels on Jun 27, 2006 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Napoli

I'm not an Angel Fan, and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night,but I live about five minutes from Angel Stadium, so I have seen quite a bit of their games, and also saw Napoli in the minors.

He has definately shifted from the dead pull days and is driving the ball with power to the right center gap. His defense has improved, and I'd venture to say that his arm is not as weak as Cronie mentioned. He does block pitches well, another area he has improved on, it looks like Scioscia has worked with him because he looks very good at blocking balls now, and is an upgrade over the Molina brothers who tend to get lazy (especially Bengie last year).

It seems the main reason that Mathis was usually ranked ahead of Napoli is that Mathis is a superb athlete, where Napoli is a little soft, and would be considered an overachiever because he's not a great athlete and has to work hard for whatever success he has.

He seems to have a cerebral approach to the game, which can be seen in his approach at the plate, but he seems to know how to call a game, and is also a smart base runner, who I believe has picked up a few SB's by running in the right situations.

The consensus out here seems to be that the Angels made a mistake by giving Mathis the job out of Spring. The fans seem to LOVE Napoli and feel he should be getting a majority of the AB's behind the plate. Most of the fans are ready to give up on Mathis, and are pretty much ready to get rid of Molina as well, so long as one of the catchers can be a "defensive" catcher. But I don't think Angel fan would mind if both Molina and Mathis were dealt, but I feel Mathis and Napoli should share the duties with Napoli getting more AB's for now. Molina hasn't really shown he can hit at the major league level.

Regardless, Catcher seems to be a position of depth for the Angels, with Napoli, Mathis, Molina, Bobby Wilson and their first round pick in Hank Conger (and also Michael Collins in Rancho, but I don't think he remain at catcher)

my 4 cents

by SoCalSoxFan on Jun 27, 2006 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I watch a lot of baseball

and Napoli probably has the biggest upper cut I have ever seen in the majors, yet he can hit line drives too. There are very few hitters that make me go "WOW" when they make contact, and Napoli is in that group. His home runs to LF remind me of some of Dave Kingman's blasts.....the high towering flyball home runs. That being said, I have seen him go the other way and hit hard line drives to LF and CF. He doesn't always swing for the fences....but he always swings hard. I cannot understand why teams seem to try to pitch him up in the strike zone....he absolutely punishes high fast balls. I'm guessing the book on him hasn't adjusted to reality, and teams think they can get him to roll over on high/outside pitches....they cannot.

by vaclipper on Jun 27, 2006 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and one more thing

I definitely would not characterize his swing as long. I actually think he has a very quick trigger and waits for the ball to get deep in the stike zone before he swings. I'm not a professional scout by any means, but Napoli's swing is much quicker/shorter than Brad Eldred's and Jason Botts'....players with similar profiles.

by vaclipper on Jun 27, 2006 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with your analysis. He springs on pitches

and punishes them.

by riktermiller on Jun 27, 2006 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

defense

like others, i think his defense has been under-rated. Scioscia even in spring training was making positive noises about his defense, and has stepped that up in the pros. perhaps that's just psychology on his part, but ex-catchers do tend to be tough on up-and-comers. In any case, he does seem to have an above average arm/release. Nothing special, but certainly major league quality, I certainly don't see him being a DH/1Bman at any point soon.

the bat will be interesting...true enough on the opposite field power. but whether or not there'll be adjustments down the line by pitchers remains to be seen. it's hard to believe he doesn't have holes somewhere waiting to be exploited, but on the other hand he does have an intelligent approach.

it does seem to me that calling up Mathis as his back-up at some point would be smart. low pressure situation for Mathis, and if Napoli plays 2/3 of the time that can be reduced if Mathis begins to play well. The good thing about being a reserve catcher is you don't tend to get buried, so I don't see why both of them can't develop at the pro level at this point

by scooter on Jun 27, 2006 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

About the same

Last year, Napoli led all catchers in one bad stat and two horrible ones in 131 games:

caught 47% of basestealing attempts
most errors (14)
most passed balls (13)

in his first 30 MLB games played at catcher in 2006, he committed 5 errors and allowed 1 PB. My best guess says that he will finish with at least 15 errors and 10 passed balls if he is allowed to play all or most of 60 more games at catcher this year.

I don't have his PB stats, but Mathis committed 9 errors in 112 AAA games (and none in limited MLB action) last season.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 27, 2006 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know

at least one of the Errors came on a batters interference. . . .I don't really understand what the "one bad stat" is??? is throwing out 47% what your referring to?

by SoCalSoxFan on Jun 27, 2006 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction...

I meant "one good stat" and two bad ones.

Sorry for the mix-up.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 27, 2006 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tettleton

I'm not sure I totally buy the comparison. Napoli is doing at age 24 what Tettleton did at age 28.

According to Peter Gammons, the Angels see him as a star:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryDate=20060605&name=gammons_peter

by pakdawgie on Jun 27, 2006 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not an exact comp

but how many other catchers with his power are gonna walk like him and strikeout that much. . . pretty solid comp i say

by SoCalSoxFan on Jun 27, 2006 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mathis will be traded

If the Angels feel they are in it, they will pull a post-All Star trade with Mathis as the centerpiece for someone's big bat.

I asked at the Angels team store if they had Napoli shirts yet and the girl rolled her eyes and said "We don't yet, but everyone is asking for them so we probably will soon." I asked her how many people asked for Napoli shirts and she said "It is the only question people asked me for the past week."

by Rev Halofan on Jun 28, 2006 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

just a few points

no one has mentioned it yet, so i will: Napoli is 15 months older than Mathis.

Give Mathis time, he's still a bit young for AAA, and i think the Angels will keep him. The Angels need two catchers and next year, Mathis will be an upgrade over J. Molina.

Napoli looks solid so far but its only 100 at-bats - i think the Angels vets said it best - "we have ourselves a player."

Brian

by Rex on Jun 30, 2006 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

must suck

to lose a job after 12 games and less than 40 ABs

by nms on Jul 4, 2006 1:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Napoli & Mathis: Take the Long View

Having watched both catchers ever since they came into the Angels' organization -- Napoli in 2000, Mathis in 2001 -- if you'd said five years ago Napoli was going to be a leading AL Rookie of the Year candidate, I would have recommended a one-way trip to the Betty Ford Clinic.

Napoli deserves huge credit for working hard to get where he is. In a way, Napoli had nothing to lose. All the expectations were on Mathis.

Still, 123 AB is a very small statistical sample on which to base the next six years of Angels catching.

Eventually I think it'll work out with Mathis and Napoli sharing the catching duties. Who gets the majority of the catching time will depend on how they both evolve. Mathis is only 23, one of the youngest catchers in Triple-A. It'll be like Steve Yeager and Joe Ferguson with the Dodgers years ago.

Jose Molina will be a free agent after 2007, assuming the Angels don't move him sooner. So Mathis isn't going anywhere.

As for whether Napoli is still a pull hitter, all you have to do is look at his spray chart on MLB.com. He's still very much pulling the ball. Almost all of his ground outs are to the left side.

by FutureAngels on Jul 4, 2006 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs