Top 20 Pirates PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Jun 26, 2006 4:01 PM EDT in News

Tom Gorzellany

This is the PRE-SEASON list. That means it was generated BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED and that the grades were PRE-SEASON. Anyone complaining about the grades based on 2006 performance will be smacked up the side of the head with a Chad Hermansen autographed bat.

1) Neil Walker, C, Grade B+
Hitting .273/.317/.379 in 35 games for Class A Lynchburg. Sample too small to draw conclusions. His season started late due to a wrist injury.

2) Andrew McCutchen, OF, B+
Hitting .277/.343/.406 with 14 steals in 68 games for Class A Hickory. Numbers aren't terrific but he is holding his own in his full-season debut.

3) Tom Gorzelanny, LHP, B
5-5, 2.53 in 15 starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, 89/26 K/BB in 93 innings, 65 hits allowed. All numbers are solid. Good K/IP and H/IP ratios, good control, low home run rate. One of the better LHP prospects in the game and worthy of more attention.

4) Paul Maholm, LHP, B-
2-6, 4.90 in 15 starts for the Pirates, 57/46 K/BB in 86 innings, 107 hits allowed. Not overly impressive but if he stays healthy I think he has a good chance to adjust.

5) Jose Bautista, 3B, C+
Hitting .219/.329/.484 in part-time action for the Pirates. Batting average is disappointing, but he's showing some pop and his walk rate is solid. I think he will come around if they are patient.

6) Chris Duffy, OF, C+
Hitting .194/.255/.276 in 31 games for the Pirates. This is a correction from what he did last year, and his career major league numbers so far (.277/.328/.362) are probably a fair measure of his true ability.

7) Nate McLouth, OF, C+
Hitting .220/.289/.330 for the Pirates. Has stolen eight bases but lack of pop is a problem and he hasn't done enough else to compensate. Probably destined to be a fourth outfielder.

8) Matt Capps, RHP, C+
4.03 ERA in 38 games for the Pirates, with a 30/5 K/BB in 38 innings. Not bad at all; his control is very good and I think he should continue to be an effective reliever.

9) Ronny Paulino, C, C+
Hitting .303/.353/.389 in 56 games for the Pirates. Hard to complain with his batting average over .300, but I'd like to see a bit more pop.

10) Craig Stansberry, 2B, C+
Hitting .253/.339/.454 with 9 homers and 8 steals for Double-A Altoona. His batting average is disappointing but he's showing touches of speed and power.

11) Jonah Bayliss, RHP, C+
3-1, 1.77 with 10 saves for Triple-A Indianapolis, 42/20 K/BB in 36 innings. I'd like to see the walks come down but he is having a solid year overall.

12) Brent Lillibridge, SS, C+
Hitting .291/.406/.509 with 17 doubles, 11 homers, 26 steals in 71 games for Hickory. Power, speed, high walk rate, it's all here. Main problem is that he is a bit old for the Sally League, but these numbers should get him noticed.

13) Chad Blackwell, RHP, C+
3.52 ERA with 20/5 K/BB in 15 innings combined between Lynchburg and Altoona. Sample size too small to be meaningful in general but these numbers are in line with what he did in the Royals system. Middle relief prospect.

14) Josh Sharpless, RHP, C+
1.64 ERA with 47/17 K/BB combined in 38 innings between Altoona and Indianapolis. He has great stuff and when he throws strikes he is effective. Another bullpen candidate.

15) Matt Swanson, RHP, C+
4.55 ERA with 26/11 K/BB in 28 innings for Hickory. OK strikeout rate but otherwise there isn't much to be excited about here, a mediocre middle man in the Sally League.

16) Javier Guzman, SS, C+
Hitting .251/.284/.360 for Altoona. Production is not impressive, not much power, low walk rate, weak OBP.

17) Bryan Bullington, RHP, C+
Still recovering from shoulder injury.

18) Adam Boeve, OF, C+
Hitting combined .306/.373/.442 between Altoona and Indianapolis. Less power production than in the past. OPS in Triple-A is just .731, which is inadequate though the sample size (33 games) is small.

19) Rajai Davis, OF, C
Hitting .259/.330/.320 with 23 steals for Indianapolis. Good speed but lack of power and mediocre on-base production will limit him to bench work.

20) Jason Quarles, RHP, C
Hasn't pitched this year due to torn labrum.

Comment:
The Pirates seem to have a lot of potential spare parts, but not much impact talent. McCutchen and Gorzelanny look like the best bets right now to be impact players, but I want to see how Walker recovers from his wrist problem. That can inhibit hitting development. Watch Lillibridge; he could be a major sleeper.

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Comments

Bautista

Just wondering how Bautista's plate discipline has been lacking. His IsoD is over .100.

by limozeen on Jun 26, 2006 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

true

Yes, you're right, his walk rate is solid. I'm not sure what i was looking at when I wrote that. My eyes might have drifted to a different line or something. I will fit it.

by John Sickels on Jun 26, 2006 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

I figured you might have made a mistake

Honestly, I only noticed it because I remember the FSN Twins announcers talking about Bautista's walk rate as the reason he was batting near the top of the lineup (mainly because while Dick and Bert are entertaining, they usually don't pick up on stuff like that).

by limozeen on Jun 26, 2006 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

In a similar vein...

...you might want to correct the thing about Capps having five saves.

by Vlad on Jun 26, 2006 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

stupid!!

Man, what the hell is my problem today? I read "save opportunities" as "saves." I need to get more sleep tonight or something.

by John Sickels on Jun 26, 2006 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

It's all good.

One of the nice things about a job like yours is that when you screw up something like this, the consequences are pretty limited. When an air traffic controller has a bad day, there's a yard sale on fireballs.

by Vlad on Jun 26, 2006 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

true

True. If I screw up, the worst thing that happens is that someone's fantasy team isn't as good as it should be.

On the other hand, when I screw up, it's quite public. You do have to have a strong sense of accountability to do this right.

by John Sickels on Jun 26, 2006 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

A Hermansen autographed bat?

Yeah, as if you could make contact with anything with THAT.

by Vlad on Jun 26, 2006 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

smacked in the head

I will be afraid if you said Randall Simon will smack the bat in my head...

by LCT on Jun 26, 2006 5:25 PM EDT reply actions

apparently the pirates have lost 11 straight

during that time period jose bautista's stat line has dropped from .255/.368/.564 to .219/.329/.484. during that time period, he has had only 4 hits and 3 walks.

by overlord on Jun 26, 2006 6:15 PM EDT reply actions

walker to 3B?

any inside dope on the likelihood of Walker moving to 3B, as is rumored?

i'd guess his prospect status, already sorta shaky given the wrist injury, would take a further hit if that happens.

and, yep, you're right, really a blah system.

by scooter on Jun 27, 2006 7:27 AM EDT reply actions

Response

Doesn't seem likely for a while. Supposedly Walker was ready to hit before he was ready to field, but the Pirates wanted him to return as a catcher. Unless his bat really stagnates or his defense is awful, I think he'll stick at catcher at least through Double A. There's still a pretty decent chance that he can stick at C but it partially depends on how fast his bat is developing and whether it would force the organization to fast track him.

I think a lot of people are keeping the possibility of a move in mind when rating Walker. He's still a potential impact bat no matter where he plays on the field.

by mrkupe on Jun 27, 2006 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Where would Bixler, Corley fit now?

Have either of them shown enough this year to break the top 20? Who else would break the list now?

by DSman on Jun 27, 2006 11:58 AM EDT reply actions

Kinda scary

that the guys John ranked as numbers 4 through 9 are playing for the Pirates, and only Capps and Paulino have put up somewhat decent numbers.

Policeman: Sir, are you classified as human? Korben Dallas: Ah, negative. I am a meat popsicle.

by finman on Jun 27, 2006 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

General Comments

I think you hit the nail on the head about Maholm John. In his last two outings he has exhibited signs of elbow fatigue as you can see here:

http://www.buccoblog.com/media/maholm-062206.htm

As you know, he had some issues at the end of 2005 as well.

It is unfortunate that pitchers like Maholm have to be thrust into a starting role with such little game management experience. Maybe I am too old school but I have always believed that young arms should work their way from the pen to the rotation over time unless they are the exception to the rule.

As for Duffy, obviously he needs to reestablish himself as a player. And Nate McLouth was rated a bit too high in my opinion simply because he had been a one-dimensional player through the farm with his poor D.

BTW, who did McClatchy pay off at BA to get an 18th farm system rating this year out of the shoot? LoL

Nice site John - I've always admired your work.

by Jake at Bucco Blog dot Com on Jun 27, 2006 3:00 PM EDT reply actions