Top 20 Phillies Pre-Season Prospects IN REVIEW

by John Sickels on Jun 22, 2006 1:25 PM EDT in News

PRE-SEASON Phillies Top Prospects List in Review

Here is the PRE-SEASON Phillies prospect list. Let's review and see how these guys are doing. Note that this is the PRE-SEASON list. That means it was generated BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED The grades are from BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED.

1) Cole Hamels, LHP, Grade B+
1.10 ERA in eight minor league starts, with a 68/12 K/BB in 48 innings. Promoted to the majors, now 1-3, 4.41 in six starts with a 31/17 K/BB in 33 innings. As long as his health holds up he should have a great career.

2) Gio Gonzalez, LHP, B+
3-7, 3.66 in 14 starts for Double-A Reading, with 93/39 K/BB in 84 innings. Doing just fine, only flaw is high home run allowed rate (12 already).

3) Daniel Haigwood, LHP, B
1-5, 3.55 in 14 starts for Double-A Reading, with 78/39 K/BB in 79 innings. Pitching just as well as Gonzalez. His home run rate is only half that of Gonzalez.

4) Welinson Baez, INF, B
Hitting just .207/.273/.302 for Class A Lakewood, obviously very weak. He's struck out 88 times in just 222 at-bats. Nothing positive here, very disappointing.

5) Mike Costanzo, 3B, B-
Hitting .248/.331/.366 for Class A Clearwater. Not much power, disappointing plate discipline, 83 strikeouts in 262 at-bats. The high strikeout rate I mentioned in his book comment is hurting him.

6) Brad Harman, INF, C+
Hitting .228/.316/.300 for Clearwater, another offensive disappointment. At least he is drawing some walks but I thought he'd do better than this.

7) Michael Bourn, OF, C+
Hitting .274/.347/.356 with 27 steals for Reading. Fine speed remains, but lack of power and just mediocre on-base skills are hurting his status.

8) Jason Jaramillo, C, C+
Hitting just .228/.285/.378 for Reading. What's the deal with all these disappointing Phillies hitters?

9) Greg Golson, OF, C+
Hitting .208/.246/.316 for Lakewood. Only positive here is 12 steals in 15 attempts. His power is disappointing and he is striking out more than once per game.

10) Scott Mathieson, RHP, C+
6-2, 3.05 in 13 starts for Reading, 95/26 K/BB in 86 innings. Doing quite well, moving up the list quickly.

11) Shane Victorino, OF, C+
Hitting .316/.370/.487 in part-time action with the Phillies.

12) Chris Roberson, OF, C+
Hitting .288/.339/.379 with 12 steals for Triple-A Scranton, but just 1-for-16 in part-time action for the Phillies. Needs to show more pop.

13) Tim Kennelly, INF, C+
Hitting just .212/.206/.364 but 10-game sample size at Lakewood and Batavia is too small to judge.

14) Matt Maloney, LHP, C+
7-4, 1.56 in 13 starts for Lakewood, 93/30 K/BB in 81 innings, 50 hits allowed, just 3 homers. Very solid performance, and worthy of a promotion to higher levels soon.

15) J.A. Happ, LHP, C+
3-7, 2.80 in 12 starts for Clearwater, 73/16 K/BB in 74 innings, 58 hits allowed. Another Phillies pitcher doing well.

16) Jake Blalock, OF, C
Hitting .250/.335/.362 for Double-A Frisco in the Texas Rangers farm system. Was traded to the Rangers on April 1st. Not playing particularly well and is now on the DL with a broken nose.

17) Josh Outman, LHP, C
3.44 ERA for Lakewood, 73/39 K/BB in 71 innings, 62 hits and 3 homers allowed. Not spectacular but holding his own.

18) Yoel Hernandez, RHP, C
1.74 ERA in 10 innings for Scranton, with six saves to his credit. Sample too small to judge although the numbers are solid so far.

19) Edgar Garcia, RHP, C
Just assigned to Batavia out of extended spring training, lost his first start (4 runs in 5.2 innings).

20) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, C
4-4, 2.47 in 13 starts for Lakewood, with 83/29 K/BB in 77 innings, 55 hits and 3 homers allowed. Very solid numbers, a prospect on the rise.

Comment:
Well, there seems to be a consistent pattern here: pitchers doing well, hitters doing badly. Is this a genuine effect or just bad luck?

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Comments

The universal answer to all baseball problems.

Let's blame Barry Bonds and steroids. Just kidding.

Please fire Dusty Baker!

by Buddy on Jun 22, 2006 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

John

Can't recall your reasons for giving Mathieson a C+. Or was it just grade-deflation? He seemed to be on a lot of people's radar over the offseason, putting up very similar numbers as this year in A+. Good control, decent k-rate.

by Azteca on Jun 22, 2006 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

Whats wrong with Baez?

I mean he swings at everything judging by his statistics but has anyone seen the kid?

by cubsfan2883 on Jun 22, 2006 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

Any Phils fans

Anyone know what happened to Mike Durant, a relatively high draft pick last year? Baseball America hyped him as having the 3rd best power bat in last year's draft, and he hit 5 homers in short season ball last year. He isn't on anyone's roster this year. Is he injured? At their minor league complex training? ???

by ScottAZ on Jun 22, 2006 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

i believe he was in extended spring

training. it is a mystery to me though why he is not on either of the short season clubs. batavia (short season A) and the gcl phillies (rookie) both have a glut of players and are near the 30 man capacity. that is without durant, first round pick kyle drabek, and second round pick andrew carpenter, so there will have to be some cuts before long.

as to what happened last year, well, durant is extremely raw. he was thought to need another year in the gcl, and if he did well, he would get double jumped to the sally league for his age 20 season.

by overlord on Jun 22, 2006 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Another FSL/EL organization

As was mentioned in the Twins' review, scoring has been off in the Eastern League so far this year. The pitchers are not as good as they look, the hitters are not as bad.

by Mike Green on Jun 22, 2006 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

Victorino's future?

Any Phils fans care to speculate on what happens to Victorino the rest of this year and next year? He seems to have some nice skills, but will he get the opportunity to be anything more than a pinch-hitter type?

by FunWithHeadlines on Jun 22, 2006 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

here is the thing about victorino

he is blocked by three very good outfielders. on the one hand, rowand cannot be traded because of fear of fan backlash. on the other hand abreu can't be traded because of his immense production. on yet another hand, burrell cannot be traded because he is the only right handed power bat in the middle of the lineup.

i don't see how victorino would overtake any of the three. rowand would probobly be the most expendable, but the phillies have been known to keep players because they are fan favorites. victorino would not be an upgrade over abreu in any major area. and burrell is too important balancing the lineup to replace.

best case scenario: burrell and michael bourn are traded to chicago for aramis ramirez. ramirez replaces bell at third and burrell in the middle of the lineup and victorino moves into the starting lineup to replace burrell.

by overlord on Jun 22, 2006 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

it's easy to imagine

a Michaels/Ledee-type situation for the next few years. Although Rowand is certainly better than anyone the Phils had in center in past days.

I'd bet Abreu's dealt in the next 18 months. Maybe for pitching. I'm not saying I'd recommend it, given Abreu's a star, but I can see it happening.

by Azteca on Jun 22, 2006 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

the problem with trading abreu

is that you cannot get back equal value. he is such a dynamic player that he is about as irreplacable a player can be. his obp is .450 this season. there is not a pitcher on the market who can replace that kind of production. not zito. not schmidt. not wood. he is invaluable.

by overlord on Jun 22, 2006 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a problem, but...

The Phillies don't seem like contenders this year, and his contract is quite large. By trading him you save some money, probably get a very very good prospect or two, and use that money to get a big FA in a year or two.

by abbreviatedman on Jun 22, 2006 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

okay, lets run through a scenario

say abreu is traded to the yankees for eric duncan and phillip hughes (i know how unlikely hughes is to be traded, but go with me on this anyway).

money saved in:

$13.500
$15.500

lets say that the phillies use this money to sign three free agents, say mike mussina, gregg zaun, and solomon torres.

that would mean a loss of three draft picks. the phillies are on pace to have the 11th pick in the draft, which would protect them from losing that pick, but if their record improves, they could lose each of their first three draft picks.

is that worth it? losing an obp machine in abreu, and three draft picks in exchange for phillip hughes, eric duncan, mike mussina, gregg zaun, and solomon torres?

i don't really think it is.

on a side note, it is extremely hard to think up a workable deal involving abreu. because of his contract, he would not have a whole lot of suiters, but because of his production, he commands two good prospects.

by overlord on Jun 22, 2006 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

You've got a point on the draft picks that a team has to give up in order to sign most FAs. But remember that not all FAs are offered arbitration. I doubt Mussina will, since he could accept and get $17 million or more. But also, this is a pretty good FA class, and I don't think Mussina, Zaun, and Torres are exactly the cream of it.

It really depends, I guess, on what kind of deal you could get. But there are plenty of teams with good farm systems and lots of payroll who could use some help. I'm just throwing scenarios out there, but the Angels, D-Backs, Dodgers, and Yankees could all use an Abreu, have the financial wiggle room (except maybe the D-Backs, though who knows), and have good farm systems (or, in the Yankee's case, at least a premium prospect and a couple with promise). I suppose you could add the ChiSox to that list (rumor has it they're looking for an OF to replace Brian Anderson, possibly a corner OF, shifting Scotty Pod to CF).

But hell, we're both just throwing shit out there it seems to me and seeing if it sticks. If they find a good deal for him, I think they'd be stupid not to trade him. As you say, he's an OBP machine, and I'm not denigrating him, Abreu's one of my favorite players. But I don't think the Phillies have the pitching to contend this year or next, but they have some NICE young pitching that could help them in two or three years.

Anyway, sorry for the brain dump. Have a good one.

by abbreviatedman on Jun 22, 2006 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I meant to also say...

... that while draft picks are nice, most of them don't turn into a prospect like Hughes. Most of even the first-rounders turn into Dewon Brazelton.

by abbreviatedman on Jun 22, 2006 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Victorino

I am not convinced he can hit as a full time player. He's a wild swinger and steady play would expose his weaknesses IMHO. Because he lacks power he'd need a high OB to play everyday. His speed and defense make him valuable off the bench and he's had a nice run with the bat in 100 or so ABs, but his historic BB/K ratios are pretty poor.

by clout on Jun 23, 2006 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Victorino

How is Victorino only a C+? In his time in the bigs he has shown the ability to produce when asked to. IMO he is at least a solid B with a good set of defensive skills to match a good bat

Pain is only temporary. no matter how long it lasts - Ray Lewis

by aNYthing on Jun 22, 2006 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

PRESEASON

What part of PRE-SEASON GRADES is not clear????

by John Sickels on Jun 22, 2006 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

sorry

Sorry. Cranky today. Trying to get the house closing finalized is stressful.

by John Sickels on Jun 22, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe...

Maybe you should have said that in the original post....you know, repeated and in CAPS....just a thought...

:-)

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by KevinApps on Jun 22, 2006 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Big Future...

that Carrasco has.

He's only a year older than me and the guy is dominating.

I like Garcia's arm alot too.

Those two are pretty exciting for the Phillies, both just barely 19, both with low to mid 90's fastballs and plus power curveballs.

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by JGT on Jun 22, 2006 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

Hamels v. Liriano

Anybody still prefer Hamels?

by Sulla on Jun 22, 2006 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

Liriano

Liriano is a GOD. Hamels is merely very good. He's a bit thin and looks very frail. I'd go with Franky long term.

by Emad on Jun 23, 2006 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions

d'arby myers

is now listed on the gcl phillies roster. no release has been made concerning him being signed though.

by overlord on Jun 22, 2006 4:33 PM EDT reply actions

so is

Dominic Brown is also listed on the gcl roster. I haven't seen anything about his signing anywhere though and he hasn't appeared in a game yet

by ScottAZ on Jun 22, 2006 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

How could

any statement that includes "pitchers doing well" be bad luck?

Maybe it's good luck, though, because it's easier to find hitters than pitchers, and with the group of hitters the Phillies have in their system, it doesn't look like their scouting's particularly good. That can't really be true either, because they certainly develop enough players. Burrell, Rollins, Utley, and Howard is a pretty good home-grown core. That's half of the starting lineup. Come to think of it, Lieberthal is home-grown, too, and he's not nearly as bad as Phillies fans think he is.

by Vaux on Jun 23, 2006 6:15 AM EDT reply actions

lieberthal

may not be as bad as philly phans think he is, but his defense is pretty bad, and he isn't worth what he is making.

by overlord on Jun 23, 2006 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions

The best thing...

the Phillies can do this off-season is to rid themselves of the scourge of Mike Arbuckle, Marti Wolever, Dallas Green, Steve Noworyta and all these types who are directionless. Dave Montgomery being ousted would be even better. It's the same thing year after year after year expecting a different result. Since 1993, the Phillies have produced no .300 hitter and no pitcher that can actually go 7 innings on a consistant basis. This is a terrible track record that a lot of fans are blind to. Just look at the end results. All hope, no playoffs.

by HumboltThunderbolt on Jun 25, 2006 12:47 PM EDT reply actions

chase utley, ryan howard, pat burrell...

...jason michaels, marlon byrd.

i'd say that's a pretty good track record of developing .300 hitters.

by overlord on Jun 25, 2006 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Call me crazy....

But of all the hitters you mentioned, only one is a .300 type hitter (Utley). Some have had brief glimpses of .300 but none are legit (Howard may be in the future, but right now we don't know that).

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 26, 2006 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions