Robinson Cano Crystal Ball

by John Sickels on May 9, 2006 11:48 AM EDT in News Comment 26 comments

Question: Will Cano develop into more of a power hitter or more of a batting average guy? I sort of split the difference here.

Discuss this Crystal Ball.

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I think I see slightly more power from him

He drives a lot of balls to the warning track now that I think he may eventually start lifting a little bit. And he hangs in well enough against lefties, going the other way, that I could see an annual 40+ doubles coming from him. All in all, though, your projection makes him a pretty valuable 2B if he can stay there defensively.

Anyone have a take on his defense? It seems to be somewhat improved this year.

by SirCaptain on May 9, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree...

He looks like he will gain power(20-25+ hrs per year at peak) but his average (around .275-.280) might not be as good...

by louief1 on May 9, 2006 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

position change

does he move to the outfield at some point? if not, i can't see him lasting that long or improving that much. the aging curves of second basemen are horrible. most of them do not improve significantly from the time they are about 23, and they have short careers as well. that major injury that cano sustains in 2012 may well end his usefulness as a baseball player.

by jpahk on May 9, 2006 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

who thinks he'll be better athis peak?

Like 25% of the poll respondents do. Which is retarded considering Johns got him hitting 330 with almost 20 HRs and 40 2bs.

And as for the outfield i doubt he'll be able to run enough for it. Hes a big dude and getting bigger (in the wide sense) he'll be at 3b or 1b when he moves...of course he won't be a yankee at those spots

by nms on May 9, 2006 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Too Optimistic

I think Cano and Carlos Baerga are similar players but I don't think Cano will have quite the same peak - though Baerga was a tad overrated.

Also, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Cano out of the league in 3 years.

Nolan

by Nolan on May 9, 2006 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

you're gonna catch some flack for saying the bit about out of the league in three years. cheers for saying it tho!

by DavidWrightismyGod on May 9, 2006 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, this guy sucks!

He's only batting .327/.352/.442/.794. Who needs a 2B with horrible numbers like that. Get him out of the league and give Miguel Cairo his at bats back!

by sabernar on May 9, 2006 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He meant

..i think...that his body would get him out of the league, Carlos Bearga style. Ive seen him before and Cano does seem like he could develop Angel Penas body fairly easily but right now it looks like its decently in check.
I dont think he'll get to big to play ball but he could get too big to play 2b soon here

by nms on May 9, 2006 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I forgot

There's no smarter and more methodologically sound way to evaluate a player than by using a 30 game sample. What a fool I've been!

Nolan

by Nolan on May 9, 2006 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So you're ignoring 500+ ABs from last year?

He put up a 778 OPS as a 22 year old 2B, which really isn't too bad at all.

by SirCaptain on May 9, 2006 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baerga

As was pointed out by another commenter, I see Cano as having a similar body-type/game as Baerga and, therefore, wouldn't bee too surprised to see him eat his way out of a job...He hits well for a 2B but, I don't think he hits enough or has the range to play OF if he gets too big...

Nolan

by Nolan on May 9, 2006 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and...

...you're a body-type specialist, eh? Sorry, I didn't realize.

by sabernar on May 10, 2006 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and youre a major league talent evaluator

sorry didnt realize

by nms on May 10, 2006 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Sabernar

I made a simple observation. Sorry if it rankled you so much.

Nolan

by Nolan on May 10, 2006 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

Even if you grant him his small sample size .327/.352/.442 line, you have to admit that Cano's value right now is nearly entirely bound up in his batting average. He's not great defensively, he's got some power but lousy plate discipline, so he won't be a serious slugger until he learns to wait for pitches. God help him if league pitchers figure him out and he starts hitting .275, because he'll be replacement level without his BA propping up his OBP and SLG.

by NBarnes on May 10, 2006 4:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is someone no one wants to succeed

Here is a guy that no one will give any props to.

I have seen many discussions since his call-up last year and because he was not an A prospect but rather a B- going into last year so there must be a melt down looming on the horizon.

In addition - I continue to hear all these knocks about his defense and he has a great side to side fluid defensive approach. He was cover 2B last night and had to come way over to his left, made the play, threw across his body and had no issues.

He does not strike out much (1 out of 10 or about 50-60 per year) so he is making regular contact and is hitting even higher than he did last year.

Even if the guy drops to .275 but is a 12/70 type hitter - that is still pretty darn good when you look at the 2B position in total.

As far as plate discipline - a lot of the 2B players who are younger have poor discipline (with Weeks doing pretty well and Utley too) but if you look at Barfield and a lot of other younger 2B - the issue is there for a lot of them.

Bottom line - he is hitting, continues to hit and even with a slight drop off - is still mid-top of the offensive 2B and his defense continues to improve. He has only committed 1 error this season with an increased fielding % and ZR. Eventually the doubters out there have to give this guy some props!

by slickwdb on May 10, 2006 7:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

amen!

I agree with everything that you say. Plus, the guy is, what, 22? 23? Sure, it's possible that he flames out, but I think that there are more things that point to improvement than to quick flame out. If Cano were on a team other than the Yankees, I'll bet certain people would have different opinions of the guy.

by sabernar on May 10, 2006 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

define "no one"

i have no problem with the guy, and wouldn't really mind seeing him succeed. i just think it'll be really tough if he stays at 2B. the guy in john's projection is a star player at his peak and has a long career. guys who come up playing 2B and aren't stars by the time they turn 23 don't usually have that kind of ceiling or that kind of staying power. utley is a little different since he was a 3B and hasn't taken quite as much wear & tear in the middle infield, and even he is a late bloomer who has probably already seen his peak last year (we think of him as being young, but he's 28 because of the length of time the phillies left him to rot in scranton).

i agree that right now, despite his plate discipline, he is still an above-average major league second sacker. but the history of stunted 2B development suggests to me that he won't be that way for long. if he's going to turn into an elite hitter, it'll have to be after a position change.

by jpahk on May 10, 2006 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Utley was tried at 3B wasn't he?

If I am not mistaken - wasn't Utley at 3B just a test? I thought they tried him at 3B as a replacement for Bell but found he regressed offensively? I thought he was a 2B except for a 1 year test?

Either way - you are very wrong about star age for 2B - here are 3 examples:

Jeff Kent - 25 in first full season and 29-35 for his peak seasons.

Ronnie Belliard - 24 in first full season and 29-30 for his best 2 seasons.

Mark Loretta - 26 in first full season and 32-33 when peaking.

Grudzialanek and even to a lesser degree, Adam Kennedy all started in the 23-26 range and started peaking after 6-9 years. The above start and peaks may be off a year because I was doing quick math however there are a lot of 2B who have played a long time and this is a career curve that many players have followed.

by slickwdb on May 11, 2006 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is anyone there...

... a star except for Jeff Kent? I mean, I like Mark Loretta (I'm a Sox fan, for one thing), and I'm a bigger fan of Belliard, I think he's underrated, but stars? Grudzialanek? Come on, he's a Royal!

by abbreviatedman on May 11, 2006 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is the point

2B has been a very weak position for a long time so to write Cano off is foolish. He is accomplishing much more than most do at that position especially given his age and I think if he can stay healthy - the crystal ball is pretty realistic.

The only position that is weaker that 2B is MLB right now is the catcher position and Cano stacks up pretty well after Utley as a top 2-10 type guy. If the Yankees can keep him there and get pitching or OF help - I see no reason why he can't play 6 year in NY unless the trading partner covets him and Cano already made it through one deadline where a lot of teams wanted him.

I just feel that Cano is better than what most people want to give him credit for.

by slickwdb on May 11, 2006 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Utley at 3b was when Rolen

was coming up for free agency. They put him there to kind of say "look, we don't NEED you. we have a replacement"...which didn't faze the Rolen camp a bit, and it was stupid of the Phillies to think that having a 1st rounder play 3b in the minors would threaten Rolen at all.

Utley, by all accounts, bombed 3b

by nms on May 12, 2006 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cano

I think his value is going to be tied up in his power, and his position. If he doesn't stick at second, he's not worth the headache of an OBP likely to be in the .310-.330 range most of the time, with maybe a spike or two above .340. If he can't consistently slug .450-.475, he's not even going to be that exciting as a 2B.

I think he'd be a disaster in the outfield. But I expect him to be a more-than-adequate 2B, light on defense and OBP and heavy on SLG, into his late 20s or early 30s. The question is, how long will the Yanks be willing to tolerate his being a net average-to-average-plus 2B, when there will likely always be someone better available in trade? I wouldn't be shocked to see Cano puttering around at third for some marginal team looking to shed salary at some point in the next few years.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on May 11, 2006 2:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think...

...that if he's an average-plus 2B, the Yankees will be overjoyed. He's cheap, plus they didn't have to trade anything for the guy. The Yanks will have plenty of holes to fill in the next 5 years or so; I'd venture a guess that they'd prefer to be able to pencil Cano in at above-average 2B for the next 6+ years.

by sabernar on May 11, 2006 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2009

what happened in 2009 where he hit just over 260 with only 9 HRs? kind of quirky, considering he had awesome years in 2008 and 2010 with averages over 320.

Talent can not make up for hard work.

by thook007 on May 11, 2006 8:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

look at ab's

as far as hr's - he hit 9 in about 100 fewer ab's because he missed 30 games for some reason. If he hits 1 HR every 25 abs - that puts him at 13 or pretty much in the range. If RBI's are at about 15/100 ab's - then he would have had 67 RBI's too. Simple math to pro-rate over a normal 575 ab season explains everything except the average however if he missed 30 games - he could have been hurt, played hurt for a while, rushed back and struggle, etc.

This is a crystal ball - use your imagination!

by slickwdb on May 11, 2006 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs