I think the target should be the best corner/pitcher available on the board.    

I think that the Pad's should look for someone who can move fairly quickly and perhaps for someone falling because of bonus demands. It doesn't look as though Hochevar is going to fall to us at this point, but it would be great to get a fast moving pitcher whom we could put with Carrillo and Peavy in the rotation in '08.

Beggining Board:

1. Luke Hochevar
   
2. Tim Lincecum
   
3. Matt Antonelli
   
5. Mark Melancon
   
6. Wes Hodges

target need positions w/ latter picks

I'm intrigued by the HS hitter from Calif... Chris Parmelee (OF/1B)

Also there's talk that 3B (HS) Chris Marrero might fall to the late-teens...

Matt Antonelli (3B, WFU) is likely to be leaving the board about the time we pick

Lastly, you have to love Adrian Cardenas w/ one of the sandwich picks... He's challenging the Florida state HS home run record as 2B (he plays SS but projects as a 2B)

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There are also quite a few good arms available but I'm not as well versed (yet) on the guys who will likely be available when SD picks...

I like Bill Rowell, Cody Johnson, Kasey Kiker, and Jeremy Barfield from the HS players.

Kyle McColloch (whom Callis has us taking in BA's mock draft)
Max Sherzer
&
Chris Perez (Univ. Miami closer who we'd turn into a starter)

We're also in HS catcher Hank Conger (who will likely move out from behind the plate and has the bat to do so)...

Sign Breit. We've drafted him twice already, third time's the charm.

With 17, draft Scherzer, Sinkbeil, or Chamberlain. I'll barf if we pop McColloch this high. Seriously, I'll barf if we pop him at all. We paid 950,000 for  Cesar Ramos's "polish" last year. Let's not repeat the mistake.  

Take LaPorta at 35 if he drops that far.

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This is what I came up with after pooring through BA's scouting reports and combining my own stat-evals...

Rowell won't be there and I don't think we take a HS bat w/ the 17th pick (though I think we will w/ a Supplamental pick)

I really like Johnson ("Few lefthanders in this draft can match Johnson's stuff... The Orioles, who pick 31st, are known to like him").

I think Rasmus is a sleeper because of his shorter, stout body.

Worse Case:

1. Justin Masterson
   
2. Chris Marrero
   
3. Kasey Kiker
   
4. Kyle McCulloch
   
5. Colby Rasmus

1. Luke Hochevar
   
2. Bill Rowell
   
3. Hank Conger
   
4. Brett Anderson

Am also interested the following players:

  Chet Lemon's son, Marcus Lemon (SS). For some reason, I like taking kids of former Pro's because of their work ethic and he is also pretty good with the glove. He does have a scholarship to Texas so we might have to use a 2nd Round to 3rd pick on him.

RHP Charles Brewer, who was named Arizona's Player of the Year. He never lost in his HS career although I heard that is kind of misleading because he was protected somewhat. May have to overpay him to ignore UCLA.

17th Pick- Kyle McCulloch, Hank Conger
35th pick- Kasey Kiker, Justin Masterson
53rd pick - Marcus Lemon (SS) ( Texas)
61st pick - Charles Brewer ( RHP ) ( UCLA )
93rd pick- Colby Rasmus ( RHP/3rd) (Auburn)
123rd Round- Jon Jay ( Miami - OF)
153rd pick- Jeremy Barfield (RHP/OF)  

Johnson went 10-0 during his 1st 2 seasons at Witchita St. but blew out his elbow. TJ is becoming a ho-hum surgery so I don't have concerns there.

He hasn't been strugling coming back from TJ and he's still getting it all back. BA says he has as much left-handed stuff as almost anyone in the draft.

Stats so far:

W L ERA  G  SV IP H  BB SO
6 1 3.11 12 0  46 42 16 44

I REALLY like this kid.

Why on earth would we take a fringe stuff pitchability guy at 17? Carpenter and McCulloch would be huge reaches.

When it comes to predicting 'who goes where,' they suck...

My sources told me McColloch, Perez, Sherzer, or Conger...

35th pick - Kris Johnson, Wich. St., LHP
Dallas Buck, U. of Oregon, RHP
Chris Perez, U. of Miami, RHP
Lars Anderson, HS, 1B

53rd pick - Wes Hodges, Ga. Tech, 3B
Chad Tracy, Pepperdine, C
Dustin Dickerson, HS, 1B

61st pick - Tony Watson, Neb., LHP
Matt Sulentic, HS, OF/2B
Josh Butler, USD, RHP
Dellin Betances, HS, RHP

93rd pick - Harold Mozingo, VaCommonwealth, RHP
Colby Rasmus HS, RHP
Wade LeBlanc, 'Bama, LHP

123rd pick - Jeremy Barfield, HS, OF
Jeff Inman, HS, RHP
Sean O'Sullivan, Grossmont JC, RHP

153rd pick - Matt McBride, Lehigh, C
Kyle Smith, HS, RHP
Jacob Brigham, HS, RHP
Martin Beno, Miss. Gulf Coast CC, RHP

At the 91st pick Barfield isn't the value that he is at the 123rd. San Diego has 4 of the first 61 selectios. So getting another top 100 guy AND getting Barfield at 123 would be a nice way to add some talent in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

So is Barfield a bad idea at #91?

Maybe...

While you DEFINITELY want to take the best available in the first round (heck, w/ the first few picks) as get to the middle rounds, you start filling in organizational holes as you get to later rounds.

How does that affect Barfield you ask?

Well, if the Padres take a prep bat early, it would make it less likely they'd pop another in the 3rd round.

Go back up and look at my wish list...

If the Padres take a pitcher (McColloch) w/ the 17th pick, then grabbing Barfield at 91 makes more sense. But if they take Snider (like I want) then a Mozingo or LeBlanc might make more sense.

What do I think about all that?

Do you care? LOL - Do I care if you care? - JK - I say we have a few nice arms, take Snider & Barfield...

Here's my updated 1-player wish list at each pick:

17th Pick - Travis Snider, Wash. HS, OF
35th pick - Kris Johnson, Wich. St., LHP
53rd pick - Adam Ottovino, Northwestern, RHP (new find)
61st pick - Tony Watson, Neb., LHP
93rd pick - Jeremy Barfield, Texas HS, OF
123rd pick - Jeff Inman, Cali HS, RHP
153rd pick - Matt McBride, Lehigh, C

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I'd REALLY like to see the Padres have the ability to take Bryan Morris w/ the 35th pick. Morris was a TB "Draft and follow" who didn't sign (as I'm sure most of you know). BA ranks him 29th, but he could be underscouted and could slide a bit.

Another guy I REALLY like, is 76st rated Chad Lee out of Barton County CC in Kansas. Check these stats:

1.80 ERA, 17 G, 66 IP, 38 H, 23 BB, 118 SO

Alright, this has gotten long enough...

Snider hit .522 as a Washington St. prep outfielder smacking 8 2B and 10 HR.

35th pick - Kris Johnson, Wich. St. Univ. - LHP

A Tommy-John alumnus, has his velocity back (88-93) and is still regaining command of his 3 pitches.

3.11 ERA, 12 G, 46 IP, 42 H, 16 BB, 44 SO

53rd pick - Adam Ottovino, Northwestern Univ. - RHP

Ottovino a rare college pitcher who is projectable and could still add velocity. His 92-95 fastball is his best pitch.

2.85 ERA, 12 G, 82 IP, 57 H, 29 BB, 105 SO

61st pick - Tony Watson, Neb., LHP

As a prepster, Watson posted a 0.10 ERA. As a college junior he posted a 0.87 ERA. Like Ottovino, his frame suggests there may be more velocity coming... He currently throws a 88-92 fastball.

0.87 ERA, 10 G, 64 IP, 29 H, 8 BB, 93 SO

93rd pick - Jeremy Barfield, Klien High School, Spring, TX - OF

The brother of current Padres 2B Josh, Jeremy is a 6'6" specimen with a great bat. He hit .447 with 7 2B and 10 HR as a Texas prep outfielder.

123rd pick - Jeff Inman, Cali Garces High School, Bakersfield, CA - RHP

Growing from a 5'11" sophomore to a 6'3" senior, Inman regularly hits 95 with his fastball. Inman may be a tough sign with his Stanford commitment.

2.26 ERA, 10 G, 43 IP, 33 H, 5 BB, 69 SO

153rd pick - Matt McBride, Lehigh Univ. - C

McBride has always been a good "catch and throw" catcher, but this year he worked hard on his bat and put up a .421 season with 17 2B and 10 HR. McBride is more athletic than your typical catcher and has 21 stolen bases to prove it.

Others to consider:

Bryan Morris (at 35) Motlow State CC, Tennessee - RHP

Morris is a rare premiere pitcher in the draft. He may deserve consideration with 17th pick. He regularly throws 90-93 fastballs flashing occasional 95's.

0.91 ERA, 14 G, 79 IP, 35 H, 20 BB, 108 SO

Chad Lee (at 91 or 123) Barton County CC, Kansas - RHP

Chad hails from the Juco ranks. He had a forearm "twinge" that dropped him from 2nd round consideration. He still posted impressive numbers and has already regained his 91-95 velocity, but needs to get back to his pre-injury dominant self.

1.80 ERA, 17 G, 1 SV, 66 IP, 38 H, 23 BB, 118 SO

Matt Sulentic (at 65 or 91) Hillcrest High School, Dallas, TX - OF/2B

A left-handed hitter, Matt hit a Texas state 4A/5A best 19 jacks while hitting .676 with 5 2B and earning the Dallas Metroplex area triple crown. His defense could be an issue, but his bat should play.

My Board has changed:

17th Pick - Bryan Morris or Bill Rowell
35th pick - Hank Conger,Kiker,or Masterson
53rd pick - Marcus Lemon
93rd pick - Jeremy Barfield or Colby Rasmus
153rd pick - John Jay

Two of those players are guys we have already talked about in this forum: Conger & McColloch, I do not feel comfortable disclosing the 3rd  player... (I also don't feel comfortable w/ the Padres taking that 3rd player.)

On a related note: Snider is likely to be off the board between 12-16 so that may be why he is out of the Padres' discussions.

John Manuel: I'm a big Morris guy, he kind of sounds like Kyle Sleeth to me with a bigger arm, and the athleticism to make his delivery, where he throws across his body, work. He might be best suited to the bullpen. I like him as much as Pedro Beato among the DFE guys, longer track record of success and similar stuff, though the arm doesn't work as easily.

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Asked about who would be best player from this draft in 5 years, Manuel said, "I'll go out on a limb and say Hank Conger. Love a switch-hitting catcher with power and off-the-charts makeup and work ethic."

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Sounds good to me!!!

If the Padres get Conger in the first, I don't think they'll take Barfield at #93. If the Padres take one of the 2 college pitchers they're considering (that's a hint about who the unmentioned prospect is) I think they WILL take Barfield in the 3rd (assuming he's there to take).

One scenario:

17th Pick - Hank Conger, prep C/1B
35th pick - Bryan Morris, JC RHP
53rd pick - Matt Sulentic, prep OF
61st pick - Chad Lee, JC RHP
93rd pick - Harold Mozingo, Col RHP
123rd pick - Jeff Inman, prep RHP
153rd pick - Matt Mcbride, Col. C (probably unlikely if they take Conger at 17)

Another scenario:

17th Pick - Kyle McColloch, Col. RHP
35th pick - Bryan Morris, JC RHP
53rd pick - Matt Sulentic, prep OF
61st pick - Chad Lee, JC RHP
93rd pick - Jeremy Barfield, prep OF
123rd pick - Jeff Inman, prep RHP
153rd pick - Matt Mcbride, Col C

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Let me just say, I will be SOOO stoked if the Padres get Conger & Morris.

As I posted on John's personal rankings,

Padres were looking at Conger @ 17, but he's caught a bit of helium in the last 48 hours (private workouts, etc.) possibly at the expense of the Snider. The Padres had crossed Snider off their list (because they thought Snider would be gone). Now the Padres are deciding between Snider, McColloch, and another undiscloseed collegiate pitcher...

I don't know if I started feeling some ownership of Conger or what, but I was pretty disappointed to hear we likely will not have a shot at him. The only pick-me-up is that Snider will now likey BE available for us. I really think taking either of the 2 college pitchers were looking at would be a mistake.

I was also told that Morris at 35 is unlikely. The good news, is that he'll likely still be available at 53... However, his bonus demands may be such that he could be planning on transfering to U. Tenn. then coming back to the draft in '08...

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Initially I had the Padres taking the prep OF from Texas, Sulentic, but if we get Snider and want Barfield then I don't think we'll take Sulentic. I doubt we take 3 high school corner-OF types in the first 3 rounds... Now if we bypass Snider (for a college arm early) or take Conger, I'd take Sulentic & Barfield. Likewise, if we take Conger, I'd pass on McBride and take Martin Beno (JC RHP).

Keep putting ideas out there. Because that's how we figure things out.

Now, I'm not a scout, but I just watched the Matt Sulentic video on MLB.com. Sulentic has a real quiet head While I won't compare Sulentic to Albert Pujols, I will say that's who I thought of (because Albert's head is freakishly quiet when he swings).

I won't say the Padres should draft Sulentic just because of his quiet head, but I was already a Sulentic fan... Do I want him over Snider? No. More than Barfield? Can I have more time to answer that one?

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I was also real impressed w/ Martin Beto's video... Ottovino's video soured me on him. I also really like Rasmus.