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Prospect Retro: Todd Walker

Prospect Retro: Todd Walker

Todd Walker was a star at Louisiana State University, MVP of the 1993 College World Series as a sophomore. The Twins drafted him in the first round of the 1994 draft, and he adjusted very quickly to pro ball, hitting .304 with 10 homers, 32 walks, and just 15 strikeouts in 171 at-bats for Fort Myers in the Florida State League after signing. Scouts loved his quick swing from the left side. He also had speed, above average power for a middle infielder, sound strike zone judgment, and a knack for hard contact. His defense at second base was not well-regarded, but it was expected that his bat would carry him.

The Twins moved Walker to Double-A in 1995, and he did very well, hitting .290 with 21 homers, 23 steals, 63 walks, and 101 strikeouts in 137 games, 513 at-bats. He did this at New Britain, which at that time played as an extreme pitcher's park. I gave him a Grade A- in the 1996 book, rating him as the Number 14 prospect in baseball. I fully expected him to develop into a potential batting champion.

Walker moved up to Triple-A Salt Lake in 1996, hitting .339/.400/.599 with 41 doubles, 28 homers, 111 RBI, 57 walks, and 91 strikeouts in 551 at-bats. Yes, this was the PCL, and Walker struggled at times against lefties, but he still impressed scouts, and was very hot late in the year. Due to the presence of Chuck Knoblauch, the Twins moved him to third base, expecting him to be their regular hot corner player starting in 1997. He hit .256/.281/.329 in a late-season trial, but clearly had nothing left to prove in the minors. I gave him another Grade A-.

Walker began 1997 as the third baseman, but got off to a slow start and was sent back to the minors in May. He hit .345 in 83 games for Salt Lake, then returned to Minnesota in September and hit .364 the final month. Walker felt that the Twins, particularly manager Tom Kelly, had given up on him too quickly that spring. Kelly publicly criticized Walker's defensive skills, and the two didn't seem to get along very well. It is interesting to note that Walker had an excellent reputation for work ethic and "intangibles" before 1997.

The Twins traded Knoblauch that winter and moved Walker back to second base. He responded by leading the American League in hitting for much of the summer of '98, finishing with a .316/.372/.473 mark including 41 doubles. Although Walker's defensive statistics at second base were average, he was continually criticized for his defense by Kelly.

Walker's '99 season was a disappointment, as he hit just .279 and with much less power than the previous year. The Twins continued to bash his defense as well. A slow start in 2000 saw Walker demoted to Triple-A to work on his glove. This caused uproar in the clubhouse, and a public war of words between Kelly and his staff and several of the Twins' younger players, including Walker. Blacklisted in Minnesota, Walker was traded to Colorado that summer, beginning his trek through the rosters of the Rockies, Reds, Red Sox, and now the Cubs.

Walker has proven to be a solid hitter for average, with occasional spikes of power. He's lost most of his speed, and continues to have a reputation for poor defense. While he did not develop into the batting champion that I expected, he is a useful complementary player. Where did things go wrong with the assessment of Walker? His minor league career showed him as a .275-.295 hitter with moderate power at the major league level. Someone with that profile at age 23-24 has a good chance to develop into a consistent .300-.320 hitter given a normal growth curve. What we didn't know was that Walker was as good at age 25 as he would ever be.

Comparable Players to Todd Walker

Billy Goodman
B.J. Surhoff
Kevin Seitzer
Odell Hale
Gregg Jefferies
Carney Lansford

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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Todd Walker's case
To me, the way the Twins trashed Todd Walker around demonstrates how poor this team was/is at developing young talents at the Major League level. See also: David Ortiz, Mike Cuddyer, etc.

by tradewind on Apr 29, 2006 9:00 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Walker
Another player that, for some reason, draws more attention for what he can't do than for what he can...It's a shame that no one just stuck him a second and let him play...He could have been a multiple time all-star if they had...I mean, are you telling me Luis Castillo is so much better than Walker that Castillo should just get 600 ABs a year without question? Doesn't make sense.
Nolan

by Nolan on Apr 29, 2006 9:19 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Walker
while this is purely an "off-the-cuff" statement, I would argue that Walker at 25 was not "the best he ever would be" if he had been in almost any other organization.  The essentially "lost" year and a half he suffered through while his defense was repeatedly bad-mouthed likely (to my eyes, did) set back his offensive development at one of the most critical times - the 2nd year through the majors.  Just my two cents...

by joeficarra on Apr 29, 2006 9:48 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To me
the Twins handling of Walker is the beginning of the current trend of the Twins being absolutely terrible at player management and hitting development at the major league level. For a team that is supposed to rely on young hitters to fill the spots of those who leave or are traded, they do an abysmal job letting or helping a player develop once they are called up, often jerking them around between starting, the bench, and AAA (see Walker, Morneau, Bartlett, Kubel now too?) The fact that they chose Luis Rivas as their second baseman over Walker shows it was the beginning of the end. And it continues with Ortiz, Jones, Hunter, Morneau, and Bartlett. The Twins are aiming for beating out KC for last place if they really believe Juan Castro is better than Bartlett and Ruben Sierra and Lew Ford are better than Jason Kubel. Oy...

by AucklandGM on Apr 29, 2006 11:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

when
was the last time a young twins hitter actually improved after being brought up to minnesota? as brilliant as the twins organization has been at developing pitchers, they've been at least as bad with their talented position players. it's disgusting.

by jpahk on Apr 30, 2006 12:17 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sunject
Things are working out with Joe Mauer.

by Josh on Apr 30, 2006 3:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mauer
i thought about him. it's not obvious to me he's any better now than he was two aprils ago when he first tasted the big leagues. a ridiculously talented player, of course--but is he improving?

by jpahk on May 1, 2006 9:01 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Please don't
get Josh started on Joe Mauer.  In Josh's eyes, Mauer makes Chris Nelson look mortal.

by HuskerBob on May 1, 2006 11:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Walker
Is the classic example of why defense is important, despite stat-head and roto-players belief to the contrary. As long as he hit really well he could hold a job, but when his bat went south to poor to mediocre he became a useful part. That wasn't the Twins fault, it may not even have been Walker's, but I suspect Walker spent too much time in the batting cage trying to become a batting champion and not enough time taking ground balls.

The argument that the Twins can't develop hitters but can develop pitchers is nonsense. They have had a hard time developing anyone recently. On the pitching side, Lohse has been a slight disappointment and Santana and Radke developed under Tom Kelly. Mauer is really the only prospect they have had develop under Gardenhire. Everyone else they already had or got in trade.

Before that, they developed a team of Pierzynski, Mientkiewicz(who hit over .300 one year), Guzman (who made it to an allstar game), Koskie, Jones and Hunter. Even Ortiz was productive, albeit not productive enough to be worth paying arbitration money to.

Of course it may be that Morneau, Kubel, Baker, Crain, Liriano, Rincon, Guerrier, et al will blossom. Its also possible they won't.

Juan Castro is better than Bartlett

That is obviously true if you are talking about a defensive shortstop. And its precisely because no one can accurately measure defense that some people have started to believe it is s secondary skill. Its not, especially at shortstop.

by TT on Apr 30, 2006 10:22 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re: Walker
but I suspect Walker spent too much time in the batting cage trying to become a batting champion and not enough time taking ground balls.

or maybe he is a naturally gifted hitter and not as naturally gifted at playing second base.

by chris p on Apr 30, 2006 10:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Santana
Santana and Radke developed under Tom Kelly

Your point is valid -- I agree with much of it -- but Santana didn't really put it together until Gardy came around. I'm not sure that one can infer anything from that, but it's the case: In 2000-01, Johan was a very young but unexceptional pitcher, posting middling K rates, occasionally disastrous walk rates, and truly odious ERAs. Gardy took over in 2002; from 2002 on, Santana has been baseball's best pitcher, or close to it. Correlation? Certainly. Causation? Who knows.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 30, 2006 11:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Santana
My point was just that Santana spent his first two years in the big leagues under Kelly. The first year he was a rule 5 guy and probably not really ready, although I recall Kelly saying he would keep someone only if they could contribute. The second year Santana won a job out of spring training - although he was injured and missed a good part of the year.  

I think the credit for Santana turning into a Cy Young winner probably goes to Bobby Cuellar, the minor league pitching coach who taught Santana his changeup when he was sent down to get experience as a starter.

by TT on May 1, 2006 11:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fault
or maybe he is a naturally gifted hitter and not as naturally gifted at playing second base.

Which is why it may not have been anyone's fault. As it turned out he wasn't all that gifted at either one by major league standards, although he clearly is a better hitter than fielder.

by TT on Apr 30, 2006 11:13 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Intangibles?
Its funny how reputations work out. Now Walker's reputation has done an about face, and he has garnered the rep of a malcontent in Chicago.

by aaronb on May 1, 2006 12:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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