Prospect Retro: Jeff Bagwell

by John Sickels on Apr 14, 2006 4:19 PM EDT in News

Per reader request from some masochistic Red Sox fans, a Prospect Retro for Jeff Bagwell.

Jeff Bagwell was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the fourth round of the 1989 draft, out of college at the University of Hartford, as a third baseman. He was considered a very promising hitter, though it was unclear how much power he would develop, and there were questions about his defense. He went to Winter Haven in the Florida State League after signing and did well, hitting .310 in 64 games. He hit just two homers and slugged .419, but he showed solid plate discipline (22 walks, 25 strikeouts in 210 at-bats), and held his own in a tough league for hitters in his first pro exposure. I think I would have rated him as a Grade B prospect at this point, considering his draft status and contact skills, but lack of evident power would have prevented him from a higher grade.

The Sox moved Bagwell up to New Britain in the Eastern League in 1990. He had an excellent season, hitting .333 and finishing second in the league batting hunt (behind the immortal Luis Mercedes). He hit 34 doubles, and drew 73 walks against just 57 strikeouts in 481 at-bats. He hit just four home runs. But New Britain was an extremely tough park for power, and the Eastern League in general was difficult for home run hitters that season. Only one player (Rico Brogna) hit more than 20 homers that year in the EL. Bagwell's tremendous plate discipline, high walk rate, and low strikeout rate really stood out, and I would probably have raised his grade to at least B+.

Looking for bullpen help for the September stretch run, the Red Sox traded Bagwell to the Houston Astros for Larry Andersen on August 30. Larry Andersen was a very good pitcher, and he posted a 1.23 ERA in 15 games for the Sox after the trade, helping them win the division with 88 wins. But Andersen's contributions came at a heavy long-term price.

Bagwell won a job as the Houston first baseman in spring training of 1991. He hit .294 with 15 homers and 75 walks on the season, winning the NL Rookie of the Year award and eventually developing into one of the most devastating hitters of the 1990s. Comparable Players to Bagwell include Eddie Murray, Reggie Jackson, Duke Snider, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson, Willy Stargell, and Orlando Cepeda. Among actives, Frank Thomas and Gary Sheffield are good comps.

So, the Red Sox essentially traded a Hall of Fame hitter for a single month of September relief work from Andersen. This has stuck in the craw of Sox fans for 16 years. But how predictable was it that Bagwell would develop like this?

Based on his minor league numbers, it was predictable that Bagwell would be an excellent hitter in terms of batting average and OBP. His BB/K/AB ratio was outstanding, and he almost won an Eastern League batting title while playing in a tough park. Was it predictable that he would develop into a home run slugger? I don't think it was particularly surprising, given his physical strength, bat speed, and strike zone judgment, that he developed into a 20-30 homer hitter. I do think, from the perspective of 1990-1991, that was somewhat surprising that he developed into a 35-40+ home run hitter. But remember that the offensive context of the years from about 1996 through 2002 was different than when Bagwell began his career.

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Single month of Andersen

"But how predictable was it that Bagwell would develop like this?"

As a Sox fan, the thing that really hurts about this deal was how Andersen blew Game 1 of the ALCS.

by cunningt @ Minor League Ball on Apr 14, 2006 4:43 PM EDT reply actions

If Kirby is a HOFer, what is Jeff?

I am so biased on this discussion it is probably unreasonable for me to do anything but ask a few questions. That said I believe he is a HOFer. The Astrodome may be the worst hitting park created while the HR was thought of as part of the game. It was made not for a horrible team, but for commerce and tourism. Baseball was the last thing that they had in mind for that thing. Although if you had ever seen it, it is very impressive from the size alone.

I consider the numbers that Bagwell put up to be as good as possible while playing in that stadium, for the bad team he played on, and the type of ball the Astros played until 96. The Astros never bought a hitter until the 90's, it was all pitching and defense in the dome.

Besides JT Snow, who stole all of Jeff's gold-gloves, I think Jeff was probably the best defensive 1st baseman on the 90's. That is why his injury is so tragic. He took so much pride in his defense.

Also, he was a good guy. Nice, quiet, and stayed out of trouble. He was not the best with the media because he is a shy person I think. But he always answered questions and didn't cause a problem.

I did not break down the numbers because I already know them. I do believe he is like top 30 in career RC.

I hvae two questions. Will the judges add-in average years to his stats in the last 3 years when he was unable to perform(like with Kirby)? Also, Do you think Bagwell will be 1st ballot?Get in?Never get in?

You bring the juice. I'll bring the ginick, Pam Minick!

by Shamus on Apr 14, 2006 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

bagwell

He deserves to be in and I think he will get in. I mean, good lord, just look at his comparable players.

by John Sickels on Apr 14, 2006 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

bagwell

Bagwell should walk into the Hall easily. There is just nothing that you can knock this guy for.

He (along with a few others) will be the guys that raise the bar for the Hall Of Fame and make it harder to get in in the future.

by colinadam on Apr 14, 2006 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

Jeff Bagwell went to my High School

Jeff Bagwell went to my High School. Xavier, in Middletown CT.

He was also a great soccer player.

by The Scout on Apr 14, 2006 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

Couple of comments...

(behind the immortal Luis Mercedes)

Priceless quote.

Anyhow:

What makes Bagwell particularly impressive, imo, aside from the tremendous hitting, tremendous plate discipline, and good fielding, was that, for a 1B, he was a very capable base stealer. How many 30-30 1B have there been? Bagwell did it twice, and stole over 200 bases in his career. All in all, it makes him an extremely well-rounded ballplayer.
His 1994 season was astounding. A .750 slugging percentage!! Oh, but for the strike. It might have been Matt Williams, Ken Griffey, or Jeff Bagwell who broke Maris' record. The Expos might have won the World Series. Tony Gwynn might have hit .400. The AL West division winner would likely have made the playoffs with a losing record.
The Red Sox can't be blamed too much for trading him. Remember, they did have a young talented 1B by the name of Mo Vaughn, and they did still have Wade Boggs, along with a couple of 3B prospects like Scott Cooper and Tim Naehring, plus John Valentin, who wound up playing quite a bit of 3B in his career. They probably could have gotten a better return than just the aged but still effective Anderson, but it's not like it was a horrible trade.

by calig23 on Apr 14, 2006 7:02 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, yes, I forgot...

I'll always remember Bagwell for his bizarre batting stance.

by calig23 on Apr 14, 2006 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Bagwell

Is inner-circle stuff in terms of the Hall. Absolute no brainer. This guy once score 152 runs. 152!

And Bagwell's '94 season was crazy good. It seems like a lot of people were having career years in '94. 39 HR, 104 runs, 116 RBI in 110 games. I hate RBI as a stat, but damn that's crazy.

I was hoping that Biggio and Bagwell would go in together, but that's not going happen.

Calig makes an awesome point about his SB numbers. I never realized he had that much speed.

Wow, I can't believe this guy was traded for about 15 innings of a relief pitcher. It's worse than the Ruth trade.

I need to go cry. :(

by Klostrophobic on Apr 14, 2006 7:20 PM EDT reply actions

He is one of my favorites

Bagwell has always been one of those guys I really liked. He was a 5 tool 1B - how many of those have ever played.

If he doesn't stroll into the hall - it is a joke. He played an entire career in one place which also means something.

1994 - that unfinished season was better than most could hope for in a 162 games and better than a lot of players have done in a career.

He is a no brainer to me but then again - I also love Cecil Cooper and wish Brett didn't hit .390 in 1980 so Cooper could have been the AL MVP so what do I know.

by slickwdb on Apr 14, 2006 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions

speed

Bagwell really never had much footspeed, but was always a great baserunner. I guess just high baseball IQ and instincts. Always was amazed at how high a percentage basesteeler he was in his prime, and he almost never made mistakes on the basepaths.

by eastin on Apr 14, 2006 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions

rob neyer

has an article on his hall of fame merits for those of you with espn insider...to paraphrase it seems that bagwells numbers come up as about sixth all time

by johnstjc @ Minor League Ball on Apr 15, 2006 2:38 AM EDT reply actions

The Bagwell Trade

Here's how this trade went down: Lou Gorman wanted a reliever badly. He was advised by Ed Kenny that Bagwell was going to be a good player and to keep him. Houston would have taken Scott Cooper if Boston insisted, but took a chance and asked for Bagwell. Gorman immediately said OK. Cooper was a year ahead of Bagwell, one reason Gorman kept him instead. The Astros couldn't believe it. When told of the deal, Ed Kenny got sick and other scouts in the room had their jaws drop. Many were furious and knew it was a bad deal, but Gorman said the goal was to win now and his say was final.

by HumboltThunderbolt on Apr 15, 2006 4:41 PM EDT reply actions

Lou Gorman

"The sun will rise. The sun will set. And I will go to lunch." - Lou Gorman

by Jim Gosger on Apr 15, 2006 11:53 PM EDT reply actions

Offensive context?

"But remember that the offensive context of the years from about 1996 through 2002 was different than when Bagwell began his career. "

Does this mean we think Jeff juiced?

by 3Com Park on Apr 17, 2006 11:13 AM EDT reply actions

no

No, I'm not accusing Jeff of juicing. There is no evidence of that. But offense went up across the board in baseball during this period...park effects had a lot to do with that.

by John Sickels on Apr 17, 2006 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

juicing

I hate to finger point, but how many players can you think of that go from 2 to 4 homers in their 1st and 2nd ML seasons and then magically turn into perennial 40 homer sluggers? Bagwell was college trained also. It wasnt like he put up those 1st two seasons as a teenager. He was 21 and 22. Not saying he did, just saying that it raises some red flags.

by aaronb on Apr 17, 2006 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

6 years

Anytime you apoligize for something before you say it means that you are not sorry at all. That would be the definition of doing something on purpose. But that is fine.

It took Bagwell 7 full seasons in the bigs before he hit 40 homers. He would have done it in 94 but he didn't. He only hit 40+ in 3 years. He was never the ultra-homerun hitter. He should have been one of like 6 guys that hit 500 homers and 500 2B's. He was really a gap hitter that crushed some balls out of the park. He carried a .290+ avg every healthy year but one.

The comps to Jeff are not big mac, barry(98+), Sosa. Bagwell did things in his prime that so few people have ever done. In a 4 year period Jeff averaged (39 2B, 37.5 HR, 25.25 SB).

NO CRAP!!!!!

In one year he hit 40+ 2B 40+ HR and 30+ SB. I think he is the only player to ever be 40/40/30.

Bottom line is that Jeff never used the longball as the feature to his game. He did what the club needed him to do. Or WHATEVER they asked him to do. He could win a game in any aspect of the game and was the most underrated player of the 90's.

IMO he is the best player I have ever seen. And you may think he is not, but you weren't watching and I really don't care if you think he is a cheater like Barry.

You bring the juice. I'll bring the ginick, Pam Minick!

by Shamus on Apr 17, 2006 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I liked watching Bagwell as well

Bagwell always seemed to be a good and likeable guy. I remember a post game interview he did after a cubs game in 2003 where he called Josh Lewin an elf. It showed that he really had some personality. Contrary to your opinions, I was not pointing a finger at Bagwell. All I said is that a red flag has to be raised. Is there definative proof, No. Can we say without a doubt that he was clean, No. Unfortunately that is the stigma attached to every player from this era.

by aaronb on Apr 17, 2006 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Bagwell

In my mind, Bagwell will always be most comparable with his birthday buddy, Frank Thomas. In their primes, both were dominant, powerful 1Bs, both were line-drive doubles hitters who also had home-run power, both knew how to take a walk, and both had their best seasons in strike-shortened 1994.

One other similarity: Both should be first-ballot HOFers.

by limozeen on Apr 17, 2006 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

entrapment

Couldn't help myself.

You bring the juice. I'll bring the ginick, Pam Minick!

by Shamus on Apr 17, 2006 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

no it doesn't

Bagwell's career progression was a fairly typical one.

In fact if you graph his career- OPS+ or EQA year by year, except for the 1994-1995 zig zag his career almost perfectly matches the average player's age/production curve.

OPS+ by year:
138, 134, 144, 213, 142, 179, 168, 158, 169, 152, 141, 137, 127, 117, 96

He improved up until about 26, plateaued for a few years then began a decline in his early 30s.

If you were looking at the back of a player's baseball card for evidence whether a player was or was not using steroids- Bagwell's would give pretty good evidence that he wasn't.

by Johnny Ruin on Apr 18, 2006 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

1994

Calig wrote that for not the strike Bagwell might have broken the Maris record. If I remember correctly, Bagwell was hit on the hand just a couple of days before the strike. The hand was broken and he would have missed the rest of the season anyway. The strike came and no one was able to outperform his counting numbers (or .750 slg) and he ran away with the MVP award.

One thing to remember is that the Dome was just an incredibly tough place to hit a HR. I used to live in Houston and saw many games. It was 390 to the power alleys! Straight away CF was 406 and was actually the easiest place to hit one out because there was a huge passageway behind the wall that was used to bring large objects into the Dome. The ball seemed to carry better that direction. The team did play with the wall sometimes and it might have been less to the power alleys when Bags played there. If one wanted to find a year when his power jumped that is the year. It was a shocking season for someone to post those kind of numbers in the dome.

In fairness, it has to be pointed out that Bags really had not defined himself as a player until that year. The 2 previous seasons he had hit 15 and 20 HRs, which for 1993 was not bad. He was a fine hitter and still young. One felt that had he wanted to he could have turned into a perennial batting crown contender, hitting only 15-20 HRs but going for the .350 avg instead of all power. But once he defined his power that's what he was. And if you look at his 47 HR season, his tops, it came when the Astros moved into the new park, which was much easier on power hitters.

by RanBricker on Apr 17, 2006 2:44 PM EDT reply actions